ANALYSIS: As of June 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,397.9 bn. or $11,494.0 m.
/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 12, 07/ - As of June 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,397.9 bn., or $11,494.0 m. at the rate of KZT121.62 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was registered for the period from March 2007 to May 2007, on MEUJKAM - from June 2006 to May 2007.
Within May 1 - 31 of 2007 the total debt (taking into account changes of the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT12.4 bn. (-0.9%), in dollar equivalent by 256.2 m. (-2.2%). Similar indicators of debt change in April of 2007 were minus KZT34.4 bn. (-2.4%) or (considering change of rates of National bank) plus $85.0 m. (+0.7%).
Following table contains detailed information.
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Amount and structure of debt
------------------------------ Change
as of for the
*Currency of May 31, 07 as of period
------------- ------------------ April 30, 0 ---------------
Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT %
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
National Bank KZT KZT 817.126 58.5 801.276 +15,850.2 +2.0
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
Ministry of Finance 576.705 41.3 604.853 -28,148.2 -4.7
incl. face value 424.183 30.3 450.190 -26,007.0 -5.8
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 424.183 30.3 408.183 +16,000.0 +3.9
also, euronotes USD USD - - 42.007 -42,007.0 -
incl. servicing 152.521 10.9 154.662 -2,141.2 -1.4
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 152.521 10.9 152.326 +195.4 +0.1
also, euronotes USD USD - - 2.337 -2,336.6 -
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
Municipals USD KZT 4.068 0.3 4.129 -61.1 -1.5
incl. face value USD KZT 3.791 0.3 3.741 +49.9 +1.3
incl. servicing USD KZT 0.277 0.02 0.388 -111.0 -28.6
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.110 0.1 1.096 +14.6 +1.3
also, face value USD KZT 1.065 0.1 1.051 +14.0 +1.3
also, servicing USD KZT 0.045 0.003 0.045 +0.6 +1.3
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
incl. Atyrau
region akimat USD KZT 2.957 0.2 3.033 -75.7 -2.5
also, face value USD KZT 2.726 0.2 2.690 +35.9 +1.3
also, servicing USD KZT 0.232 0.02 0.343 -111.6 -32.5
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
TOTAL 1,397.899 100.0 1,410.258 -12,359.2 -0.9
incl. face value 1,245.100 89.1 1,255.207 -10,107.0 -0.8
incl. servicing 152.798 10.9 155.050 -2,252.2 -1.5
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 1,397.899 100.0 1,365.914 +31,984.5 +2.3
also, face value KZT KZT 1,245.100 89.1 1,213.200 +31,900.0 +2.6
also, servicing KZT KZT 152.798 10.9 152.714 +84.5 +0.1
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- -----
incl. external debt USD USD - - 44.344 -44,343.6 -
also, face value USD USD - - 42.007 -42,007.0 -
also, servicing USD USD - - 2.337 -2,336.6 -
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*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
Equivalents as of May 31, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT121.62 per a dollar, as of April 30, 07 - at KZT120.01. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.
Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows.
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Amount and structure of debt
------------------------------ Change
as of for the
*Currency of May 31, 07 as of period
------------- ----------------- April 30, 07 ----------------
Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
National Bank KZT KZT 6,718.7 58.5 6,676.2 +42,495.1 +0.6
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
Ministry of Finance 4,741.9 41.3 5,039.6 -297,743.5 -5.9
incl. face value 3,487.8 30.3 3,751.0 -263,184.8 -7.0
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 3,487.8 30.3 3,401.0 +86,815.2 +2.6
also, euronotes USD USD - - 350.0 -350,000.0 -
incl. servicing 1,254.1 10.9 1,288.6 -34,558.7 -2.7
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 1,254.1 10.9 1,269.2 -15,089.9 -1.2
also, euronotes USD USD - - 19.5 -19,468.8 -
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
Municipals USD KZT 33.45 0.3 34.40 -955.1 -2.8
incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.3 31.2 0 0
incl. servicing USD KZT 2.3 0.02 3.2 -955.1 -29.5
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 9.1 0.1 9.1 0 0
also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 8.8 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 0.373 0.003 0.373 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
incl. Atyrau
region akimat USD KZT 24.3 0.2 25.3 -955.1 -3.8
also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.2 22.4 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 1.9 0.02 2.9 -955.1 -33.4
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
TOTAL 11,494.0 100.0 11,750.2 -256,203.5 -2.2
incl. face value 10,237.6 89.1 10,458.3 -220,689.7 -2.1
incl. servicing 1,256.4 10.9 1,291.9 -35,513.8 -2.7
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 11,494.0 100.0 11,380.7 +113,265.3 +1.0
also, face value KZT KZT 10,237.6 89.1 10,108.3 +129,310.3 +1.3
also, servicing KZT KZT 1,256.4 10.9 1,272.4 -16,045.0 -1.3
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- -----
incl. external debt USD USD - - 369.5 -369,468.8 -
also, face value USD USD - - 350.0 -350,000.0 -
also, servicing USD USD - - 19.5 -19,468.8 -
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*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in May 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT200,712.8 m. (in April 2006 - KZT389,321.2 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT190,217.3 (KZT439,032.9 m.). Thus net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was plus KZT10,495.6 m. Corresponding index in April was minus KZT49,711.6 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed).
In May the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT16,010.7 m. (in April - KZT10,181.8 m.) and paid face values of bonds (including euronotes of first emission XS0111078183) and coupon payments for a total of KZT50,782.5 m. (in April - KZT1,236.4 m.). May net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT34,771.8 m. (in April - plus KZT8,945.4 m.).
Total May net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including payment of coupon on bonds KZE4KY050046 of the local executive body of Atyrau region) was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT24,391.2 m. Similar indicator of April - minus KZT40,766.2 m.
The given data bout balances should be perceived with proviso that the significant part of payments - about KZT44 bn. - was made in US dollars by ministry of finance of Kazakhstan while payment and servicing of eurobonds of sovereign debt. With it for Kazakhstan, based upon data of Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty, - further CD), had come only one third of them. From is comes, that in May primary GS market nevertheless had rendered the sterilization effect on money aggregates and had hold the growth of tenge liquidity after decrease of it in April.
Agency IRBIS draws attention of subscribers and mass media that the data given below are not official statistics and received by result of analysis of information, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty).
[2007-06-12]