ANALYSIS: INRBIS AGENCY (KAZAKHSTAN) COMPLIED TOP-30 OF SPECULATIVE ATTRACTIVENESS OF KASE LISTING SHARES IN Q1,2006

20.04.06 19:58
/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, April 20, 06/ - IRBIS the Information agency of financial markets (Almaty) has complied speculative attractiveness rating of listing shares, traded on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE), having revised change of their costs and their liquidity degree on the open market in the first quarter of 2006. Results of the researches are given in the table, which comprises 30 most attractive shares. Shares of 63 names of KASE's official securities list were analyzed while complying the table ("p" letter in security's symbol means preferred shares, others - common shares; full list of issuers symbols and securities traded on KASE is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reference information Key ------------------ --------- -------- Yield, % APR: indicators -------- -------- Volume of Market Po- of rating si- Share ------------------- on deals on quo- Deals, deals, tion symbol Ks Kl Ky (Yi) tation KZT m. quantity ---- ------ ------ ---- ----- -------- -------- --------- -------- 1 CCBN 1.51 2.33 0.65 +1,427.2 +965.2 2,471.8 80 2 KZZN 1.47 2.49 0.59 +1,302.0 +770.5 953.9 149 3 ASFI 0.664 0.67 0.997 +2,194.8 +1,574.9 16.1 22 4 UTMK 0.662 0.66 1.000 +2,201.6 +1,281.0 15.4 16 5 HSBK 0.50 1.49 0.34 +743.4 +145.4 43.3 50 6 NRBN 0.43 0.94 0.46 +1,012.3 +194.6 108.4 37 7 AMGZ 0.37 1.58 0.23 +513.7 +234.0 103.0 61 8 KKGBp 0.31 1.09 0.28 +615.6 +421.8 181.5 32 9 ASBN 0.30 1.27 0.24 +524.8 +434.8 96.9 47 10 KZTK 0.29 2.05 0.14 +309.1 +520.9 530.0 79 11 KKGB 0.27 0.55 0.48 +1,054.4 +959.5 16.0 12 12 KZTKp 0.26 0.79 0.33 +718.8 +757.3 19.6 13 13 CCBNp 0.18 0.82 0.22 +484.5 +160.2 646.5 20 14 BTAS 0.16 1.36 0.12 +255.3 +443.0 127.4 61 15 ATFB 0.14 0.74 0.18 +405.6 +1,428.4 167.6 15 16 CSBN 0.13 1.56 0.08 +181.9 +413.0 82.0 69 17 TSBN 0.12 0.61 0.20 +446.1 +344.7 16.4 12 18 ATFBp 0.082 0.39 0.21 +463.8 +122.4 39.5 6 19 BTASp 0.081 0.63 0.13 +281.6 +713.1 874.7 7 20 CSBNp 0.035 0.47 0.07 +162.2 +205.3 7.1 10 21 ATFBp8 0.034 0.92 0.04 +81.1 +56.3 576.4 20 22 CHFM 0.028 0.31 0.09 +197.3 +32.8 1.1 2 23 NRBNp6 0.027 0.32 0.08 +184.8 +112.0 48.4 5 24 ALKS 0.019 0.30 0.064 +141.4 +50.7 160.8 3 25 KANT 0.018 0.30 0.062 +137.1 +101.4 2.1 2 26 TEBN 0.012 1.54 0.008 +16.8 +11.0 347.9 63 27 PDES 0.010 0.35 0.028 +60.8 +23.9 400.6 3 28 HSBKp1 0.004 0.38 0.011 +24.7 +2.4 6.2 7 29 TEBNp 0.001 0.60 0.002 +4.3 -14.8 92.6 11 30 VTBNp 0.0005 0.45 0.001 +2.4 +1.1 833.5 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RATING METHODS DESCRIPTION The basis of the rating is the so called speculative attractiveness indicator (Ks), by the value of which shares are sorted in the table in reverse order. Analysts of IRBIS assume that the higher Ks is, the bigger speculative potential the share had on the market in the analyzed period. The indicator has been calculated by the formula: Ks = Kl * Ky, where: Kl - share liquidity; Ky - share yield at market deal prices. Thus, IRBIS considers that share's liquidity degree on KASE and change of its market price play the key role while determining share's speculative attractiveness. These both factors, judging by Ks formula, have equal weight while making the rating. Liquidity indicator of i share is calculated by the formula: Kl = 0.5*Kv + Kq + Kp + 0.5*Kd, where: Kv - показатель объема сделок = Vi / Vmax, где: Vi - volume of market deals in i share in the analyzed period; Vmax - the biggest volume of deals, fixed in the analyzed period on any share from the examined list (we're reminding there were 63 of them, and CCBN had Kv, equal to 1); Kq - number of deals = Qi / Qmax, where: Qi - number of market deals in i share in the analyzed period; Qmax - the highest Qi, fixed in the analyzed period on any share from the examined list (KZZN had Kq, equal to 1); Kp - number of brokers = Pi / Pmax, where: Pi - number of KASE members, which took part in making deals in i share in the analyzed period; Pmax - the highest Pi, fixed in the analyzed period on any share of the examined list (KZTK had Kp, equal to 1); Kd - effective days = Di / Dmax, where: Di - number of days in the analyzed period, on which deals were made in i share; Dmax - the highest Di, fixed in the analyzed period while making deals in any share of the examined list (KZZN had Kd, equal to1). Values, shown in the formula of liquidity indicator as multipliers before Kv and Kd (0.5) - indicator weight. Judging by the formula analysts of IRBIS assume that deals volume and number of successful days on domestic market have 2 times less weight while estimating liquidity, than number of deals and number of their participants. Yield indicator of i share is calculated by the formula: Ky = Yi / Ymax, shere: Yi - yield of i share on deals as % APR, calculated by the formula: Yi = (Re - Rb) / Rb / 90 * 365, where Re - share cost on market deals at the end of the analyzed period, KZT per share; Rb - share cost on market deals at the beginning of the analyzed period, KZT per share; 90 - actual number of days in the analyzed period; 365 - yield basis; Ymax - the highest Yi, fixed in the analyzed period on any share of the examined list (ASFI had Ky, equal to 1). Share cost on market deals, used for calculating the above-mentioned Yi (sixth column of rating table), was calculated in the following way. Each share cost at the beginning of the analyzed was determined as weighted average price of this share, calculated on deals of the last day successful for this share, which preceded to the date of the analyzed period beginning. Shares cost at the end of the period was calculated in similar way and the difference was the fact that data on deals of the last day successful for this share, preceding to the date of the analyzed period end, was considered. In other words, weighted average shares prices, which were relevant at the beginning and the end of the analyzed period, were considered. Successful day for share means a trading day, during which at lest one market deal in this share was made on KASE. Estimation of each share, made by such the method, was made only when successful days were close to the end and the beginning of the analyzed period. Shares, not meeting this requirement, were not considered in the rating. Specialists of IRBIS note that change of prices, received in the way described above (Yi), is given as percentage per annum using actual/365 basis. The rating table contains shares yields, calculated by change of shares costs on purchase quotations, as a reference information, which was not considered in making the rating. This indicator is calculated in the way Yi is calculated, and the difference is the fact that values taken by specialists of IRBIS from KASE's market estimation, as the price parameters (Re и Rb). KASE generates these files daily in compliance with exchange's internal document "Methods of securities estimation". The methods are available at http://www.kase.kz/geninfo/normbase/met_ocen_zb.pdf. Results of shares market estimation, symbols of which are given in the tables, as of January 1 of 2006 and as of March 31 of 2006, were used while estimating shares yields by this method. Specialists of IRBIS assume such the estimation of shares yields is most conservative. Volume of market deals in shares and number of such the deals are also shown in the rating table as reference information. IRBIS notes that exchange's share deals, made by nego deals method, were not considered in any calculations, concerned with the rating. IRBIS agency gives notice that material given above is not an offer or recommendation to sell or buy shares on KASE. Using it by anyone while taking investment decision does not make IRBIS agency responsible for possible losses, resulting from such the decisions. [2006-04-20]