ANALYSIS: In January of 2006 share market was characterized by growth of shares values

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 14, 06/ - In January of 2006 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 227 deals were made in shares in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT10,367.0 m. or $78.0 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 19.1% of monthly turnover of KASE's corporate securities market (in December of 2005 - 54.6%) and 0.9% of the whole monthly turnover (3.3%). Below are tables characterizing KASE's share market in January of 2006: Change of lists of shares traded on KASE, in January of 2006 ----------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 51 0 32 0 B 39 0 30 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 90 0 62 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 6 -2 6 -2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 96 -2 67 -2 ----------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; at month-end, change for the month. Statistical characteristics of share market on KASE in January of 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ------------------- Trend January December Jan. 2006 Indicator 2006 2005 to Dec. 2005 ---------------------------------------- -------- --------- ------------ Trade volume, th. USD 78,029.1 247,984.3 -68.5% Trade volume, m. KZT 10,367.0 33,194.9 -68.8% inc. offerings, th. USD 3,761.1 32,049.4 -88.3% inc. offerings, m. KZT 500.0 4,285.8 -88.3% inc. secondary market deals, th. USD 74,268.0 215,934.8 -65.6% inc. secondary market deals, m. KZT 9,867.0 28,909.0 -65.9% Number of deals 227 375 -39.5% inc. at offerings 1 5 -80.0% inc. on secondary market 226 370 -38.9% Number of instruments involved in deals 28 42 -33.3% Stake of nego deals (number), % 24.7 45.1 -20.4,пп Stake of nego deals (volume), % 49.6 56.0 -6.4,пп Pension assets participation, % gross 12.2 6.7 +5.5,пп Number of exchange's members, made deals 41 36 +13.9% Market concentration, %* 68.2 48.0 +20.2,пп --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * percentage from total share turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of shares, included in KASE's trade lists), is shown Main indicators of exchange's market of shares purchase-sale in January of 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market's Volume of Volume of Date capitalization, KASE_Shares deals, deals, Number of m. USD index th. USD m. KZT deals ---------- --------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Dec 30, 05 10,521.2 684.23 5,923.4 792.4 15 Jan 4, 06 10,520.8 637.92 1,130.2 151.2 2 Jan 5, 06 10,963.7 676.48 1,408.9 188.5 8 Jan 6, 06 11,115.2 658.70 1,646.4 220.4 5 Jan 9, 06 11,115.2 660.35 1,486.8 199.0 6 Jan 12, 06 11,140.7 657.66 9.3 1.2 2 Jan 13, 06 11,121.0 656.21 18,325.7 2,448.3 17 Jan 14, 06 10,340.1 656.38 6,804.1 908.4 14 Jan 16, 06 11,225.1 661.02 24.5 3.3 4 Jan 17, 06 11,365.2 673.94 2,283.3 304.2 21 Jan 18, 06 11,468.4 682.62 72.4 9.6 11 Jan 19, 06 11,856.7 683.31 3,285.0 437.2 22 Jan 20, 06 11,920.9 696.28 4,532.1 602.5 9 Jan 23, 06 12,040.6 726.25 4,279.8 567.9 12 Jan 24, 06 12,070.5 700.73 20.1 2.7 2 Jan 25, 06 12,205.3 705.69 2,285.1 302.5 9 Jan 26, 06 12,392.9 725.30 4,446.4 587.2 13 Jan 27, 06 12,407.6 733.11 164.3 21.7 21 Jan 30, 06 12,731.2 828.89 3,511.7 464.1 20 Jan 31, 06 12,859.8 781.45 22,312.9 2,947.1 29 ---------- --------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +2,338.6 +97.22 +22.2% +14.21% ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: Share index (KASE_Shares) reflects change of demand quotations for shares of official "A" listing category taking into account their issuer's market capitalization. Share market's capitalization is an indicator, reflecting market capitalization of companies, whose shares have been included in KASE's official securities list. It's calculated based on the number of issued and paid shares and their last market value. If deals in a company's shares are absent, its capitalization equals to zero. Volume of purchase-sale deals comprises deals in state blocks of shares and volume of initial share offerings at KASE's specialized trades, but does not account for repo transactions volume. Summary data by the results of trades in shares on KASE in January of 2006 (purchase and sale, excluding deals in SBS, but including initial offerings) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief ----------------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ------------------------- -------- -------- ------ ------ ------- CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 35,012.4 4,652.1 20 44.87 +34.45 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 11,578.8 1,532.9 32 14.84 +54.47 BTASp Bank TuranAlem JSC 6,590.0 873.5 6 8.45 -5.15 CCBNp Bank CenterCredit JSC 5,339.7 709.5 7 6.84 -15.97 HSBKp1 Halyk savings 4.86 bank of Kazakhstan JSC 3,792.7 504.2 5 +0.89 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 3,347.2 447.2 3 4.29 -1.27 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 1,920.8 255.6 4 2.46 +33.39 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,799.5 238.6 2 2.31 -2.99 TEBNp Temirbank JSC 1,766.3 235.2 16 2.26 -1.17 NFBN NEFTEBANK JSC 1,765.7 236.2 2 2.26 +0.05 TEBN Temirbank JSC 1,591.6 211.9 19 2.04 +25.00 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 1,188.9 158.9 12 1.52 +56.47 ALKS ALMATY KUS JSC 1,186.8 158.8 2 1.52 +20.00 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 176.3 23.4 15 0.23 +74.35 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 150.7 20.0 1 0.19 +10.44 AMGZ CNPC - Aktobemunaygas JSC 122.5 16.2 16 0.16 +4.00 HSBK Halyk savings 0.16 bank of Kazakhstan JSC 122.5 16.3 16 +49.54 HSBKp Halyk savings 0.15 bank of Kazakhstan JSC 116.4 15.4 4 -9.68 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 98.7 13.2 10 0.13 +17.74 KZTC KazTransCom JSC 80.6 10.7 6 0.10 +93.24 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 65.8 8.7 7 0.08 +20.59 ROSA ROSA JSC 63.2 8.4 9 0.08 0 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 51.7 6.9 4 0.07 +114.29 AMGZp CNPC - Aktobemunaygas JSC 44.8 6.0 1 0.06 +10.34 MMGZp Mangistaumunaygas JSC 37.0 4.9 2 0.05 +100.00 ASBN Alliance Bank JSC 15.0 2.0 4 0.02 +2.94 PDES PAVLODARENERGOSERVICE JSC 2.1 0.3 1 0.003 +18.75 CSBNp BANK CASPIAN JSC 1.1 0.2 1 0.001 -15.00 -------- ------------------------- -------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 28 78,029.1 10,367.0 227 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Securities were sorted in descending order of deals volume expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred share; the rest - common inscribed share. " X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in analyzed period. The volume of share trade in January considerably fell because market's subjects in the end of the year correct their financial statements, reallocating shares and money. Coming of the new year removes such the necessity and the market calms down. However the market becomes more open, and its price characteristics let say about a new development phase and about some "price boom". Weighted average dirty prices of 20 shares out of 28 ones involved into deals in January grew, prices of 7 shares - fell. Price of ROSA remained unchanged. KZTKp grew most highly (2.1 times). On the second place - MMGZp, their weighted average rate grew 2 times. Values of following securities also grew considerably (by over 30%), at that on open market deals, in January: CCBN, BTAS, ATFBp8, KKGBp, KZZN, HSBK and KZTC. Market's capitalization and KASE_Shares index (third table) are especially impressing. Nether the former nor the latter one ever grew so much and quickly. The reason of that is also growth of prices. In the end of January exchange's share market was overheated. One of traders said the market had been seized by "purchasing fever". It was "all the same what to buy" for some clients of brokers. Results of analysis made by IRBIS in January (they were published on February 8 in news), show that yields of shares, traded in KASE's official "A" listing category, calculated on change of their market prices in year 2005, in the average totaled 90.1% APR using market estimation and 154.9% APR - on weighted average daily prices of open market. On some securities this indicator exceeded 100 and even 300% APR. Investors of almost all categories, being impressed by that, started active purchasing shares, rates of which at present breaks historic records. Analysts of IRBIS assume this boom started in spring of year 2005, when most risky physical persons put their savings at stake and purchased shares from exchange's market-makers in the volumes of their compulsory quotations. He process was not active because most market-makers did not wish to separate with underestimated shares of leading companies. KASE, and Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan on regulation and supervision of financial market and financial organizations had to take several measures in order to introduce order in market-makers' work. As the result the latter ones had to raise sale quotations. Precisely these actions moved the market from the dead point under conditions of excessive tenge liquidity, increased need of Kazakhstan pension funds in growing instruments, due to growth of mutual funds' assets and brokers' strong wish to activate the market. Falling of exchange's share market turnover in January, even under conditions of price boom, also characterizes the current situation. But, on the other hand, volume of instruments, enabled in trading, is still small and can not seriously interest institutional investors yet. For physical persons the market is attractive in the context of its speculative potential, for pension and mutual funds - in the context of their portfolios re-estimation. But not more. That's why investing in shares seems to be very risky. However specialists of IRBIS consider the occurring things positively. Speculative attractiveness of the market and growing prices may raise interest of Kazakhstan issuers, who are interest in expansion of funding base. This, in its turn, may bring a big portfolio investor to the market, that in the complex can solve problems concerning liquidity in the context of the volume of available instruments, as well as in the context of necessary volume of money to be invested. Having analyzed opinions of market's professional participants, specialists of IRBIS expect further growth of shares prices in February and, maybe, some technical correction. Trade volume may grow a bit. [2006-02-15]