ANALYSIS: In January 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE grew owing to involving of new securities in circulation

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 13, 06/ - In January 2006 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 255 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT43,880.6 m. or $330.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 80.9% of exchange turnover of the month (in December 2005 - 45.3%) and 4.0% from the whole monthly turnover (2.8%). Change of securities lists of corporate bonds, trade on KASE, January 2006 ------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 138 0 49 0 B 8 0 8 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 146 0 57 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 146 +11 99 +8 ------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Statistical characteristics of corporate bonds market on KASE in January 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------------- Trend Indicator January 2006 December 2005 Jan 2006 to Dec. 2005 ---------------------------------------- ------------ ------------- ----------- Trade volume, th. USD 330,149.6 205,810.0 +60.4% Trade volume, m. KZT 43,880.6 27,541.4 +59.3% incl. on floatations, USD th. 9,193.6 380.0 +2,319.2% incl. on floatations, KZT m. 1,226.2 50.8 +2,314.1% Inc. deals of secondary market, USD th. 320,955.9 205,430.0 +56.2% Incl. deals of secondary market, KZT m. 42,654.4 27,490.6 +55.2% Number of deals 255 307 -16.9% incl. in floatations 5 1 +400.0% Inc. in secondary market 250 306 -18.3% Number of instruments involved in deals 67 75 -10.7% Stake of direct deals (number), % 31.4 33.9 -2.5,пп Stake of direct deals (volume), % 7.5 23.5 -16.0,пп Pension assets participation, % gross 16.4 25.5 -9.1,пп Number of exchange's members, made deals 41 36 +13.9% Market concentration, %* 71.3 42.6 +28.7,пп ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *percentage from total bond turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of bonds, admitted to trading on KASE, is shown) Statistics characteristics, given in the table, fix essential increase of emission activity of listing companies. However growth of turnover of exchange primary market cannot be explained by activation of secondary market. In January on KASE were floated debt liabilities only by Kazakhstan Mortgage Company - bonds of issues KZPC1Y03B142 (KZIKb9), KZPC2Y05B145 (KZIKb10) and KZPC1Y10B543 (KZIKb11). Out of them only KZIKb11 were rated as the most traded securities on KASE, made by volume of operations given in secondary market, but they are below of this rating. This is explained by tradition of Kazakhstan market, as per which most volume of bonds, purchased in specialized trades of KASE, sets in portfolios of investors till maturity. Regarding the above mentioned rating, in January it included liabilities of seven names, which characterize concentration of market, given in the table of statistics characteristics: BTASb5, CCBNb12, KZIKb3, CCBNb11, ASBNb3, BTASb4 and KZIKb11. Stake of these instruments was 71.3% of the stock exchange's turnover of corporate bonds in sector of KASE's secondary market. Comparing this rating with compared data by the results of trades (the table is given at the end of the review) we, nevertheless, will see, that more than half of turnover of corresponding KASE market is controlled by new securities, occupying in rating first two positions - BTASb5 and CCBNb12. to such kind of securities also CCBNb11 and KZIKb11 are related. In other words, liquidity of secondary market in analyzed market was supported by "fresh" bonds, and it is not excluded, that their floatation was hold on KASE by market makers and underwriters, but in sector of secondary market. These floatations were simply declared as primary. From the above said IRBIS specialists are inclined to make conclusion that activation of circulation of corporate bonds on KASE in January 2006 was caused mainly by growth of issue activity of issuers and their aspiration to float in the market new portions of their debt. By the number of concluded deals in absolute leaders of January were BTASb5 (39 deals). Afterwards followed KATRb1 (22), ASFIb7 (12) and CCBNb11 (11), and the fifth pace divided between themselves BTASb4 and KZALb1 (10). Positions of leader in this rating relative to December 2005 could keep KATRb1 and BTASb4. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bonds market in January 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals,, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC USD th. KZT m. -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 30.12.05 8,247.7 7.19 187.19 129.55 43,652.7 5,839.4 04.01.06 8,260.7 7.11 187.70 129.91 1,244.1 166.5 05.01.06 8,250.6 7.14 187.48 129.76 50,072.1 6,700.2 06.01.06 8,249.9 7.11 187.80 129.95 1,941.9 259.9 09.01.06 8,245.1 7.17 187.48 129.63 6,570.8 879.3 12.01.06 8,251.4 7.10 188.10 130.03 32,603.1 4,357.4 13.01.06 8,251.8 7.15 187.79 129.74 13,415.8 1,792.4 14.01.06 8,255.1 7.16 187.76 129.71 22,479.6 3,001.3 16.01.06 8,262.5 7.15 187.90 129.77 4,024.9 537.4 17.01.06 8,271.1 7.14 188.18 129.95 15,109.6 2,013.0 18.01.06 8,273.1 7.17 188.02 129.79 12,505.8 1,664.5 19.01.06 8,273.3 7.14 188.30 129.98 12,057.9 1,604.8 20.01.06 8,276.0 7.15 188.28 129.91 2,815.8 374.3 23.01.06 8,282.2 7.14 188.44 129.97 3,400.6 451.4 24.01.06 8,288.1 7.13 188.54 130.03 2,053.9 272.1 25.01.06 8,291.0 7.14 188.57 129.99 50,069.7 6,628.2 26.01.06 8,300.6 7.16 188.43 129.87 73,066.6 9,648.4 27.01.06 8,299.3 7.17 188.43 129.86 13,243.3 1,749.3 30.01.06 8,289.0 7.20 188.25 129.64 6,473.4 855.6 31.01.06 8,289.8 7.18 188.46 129.78 7,000.6 924.6 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +42.1 -0.005 +1.28 +0.23 +0.5% -0.07% +0.68% +0.18% -------------------------------------------------------------- Out of 67 names of bonds, involved in deals of January, 41 securities were characterized by positive change of average weighted dirty prices, by negative - 19. Prices of seven new debt instruments were nothing to be compared with. Leaders of growth (by 5.7%) became KZIKb3, drop (by 5.8%) - VTZLb1. Growth of average weighted day dirty prices by 5% and more showed one security, whereas two bonds were characterized by considerable decrease of prices. By concluded deals yield of bonds to maturity for buyers grew in January of 29 securities, decreased of 31. Information, given in the table of main indicators and in the text under it, allows to make the following conclusion. To all appearances, good positions of KZIKb3 in rating of traded corporate bonds on KASE in January are caused by considerable revaluation of these bonds, this is possible to result in nearest future in drop of their price. At the same time market of corporate bonds on KASE in January was characterized by high price stability and minimum change of indexes, fluctuations of which we may rank as working. That is why local revaluation or underestimation of debts at local market happens seldom. Summary data by the results of trades in bonds on KASE in January 2006 (purchase and sale, inluding primary offerings) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ------------------------ --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- BTASb5 Bank TuranAlem JSC 168,253.5 22,339.0 39 50.96 X CCBNb12 Bank CenterCredit JSC 16,379.3 2,180.9 5 4.96 X KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 12,867.2 1,709.5 8 3.90 +5.65 CCBNb11 Bank CenterCredit JSC 10,990.7 1,460.4 11 3.33 X ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 9,677.8 1,293.6 7 2.93 -0.14 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 9,477.0 1,266.2 10 2.87 +1.40 KZIKb11 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 7,614.5 1,017.7 1 2.31 X HSBKb8 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 7,186.3 956.4 1 2.18 +0.36 TEBNb6 Temirbank JSC 6,741.2 900.0 1 2.04 +0.34 ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 6,244.3 825.1 12 1.89 +0.61 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 5,941.5 784.9 4 1.80 +0.69 NRBNb3 Nurbank JSC 5,533.9 737.3 2 1.68 +0.55 PRKRb1 Production contract corporation JSC 5,210.4 696.3 2 1.58 +0.18 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 4,690.0 623.7 8 1.42 +2.01 KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ LLP 4,382.8 584.3 22 1.33 +1.06 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 4,129.2 546.3 6 1.25 +0.26 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 3,967.4 530.2 4 1.20 +0.38 HSBKb10 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 3,831.3 511.3 3 1.16 +1.10 TEBNb4 Temirbank JSC 3,509.8 469.1 2 1.06 -3.77 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 3,426.2 452.4 1 1.04 -1.09 VITAb4 VITA JSC 3,309.6 437.5 2 1.00 +0.71 KZAPb1 NAC Kazatomprom JSC 3,163.0 417.8 1 0.96 +0.66 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 2,758.8 366.1 2 0.84 -1.88 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 2,724.3 364.4 5 0.83 +1.58 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 2,226.7 297.6 4 0.67 +2.07 KZALb1 Mining-metallurgical concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 1,983.5 262.0 10 0.60 +0.66 NFBNb1 NEFTEBANK JSC 1,867.8 250.0 1 0.57 X BTAIb7 BTA Ipoteka JSC 1,519.2 200.6 1 0.46 -3.12 KZIKb10 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,162.1 153.5 2 0.35 X ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 1,019.2 135.0 1 0.31 -0.75 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 973.3 129.8 3 0.29 +0.42 NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 949.4 126.3 4 0.29 +0.47 BTAIb4 BTA Ipoteka JSC 927.8 123.0 8 0.28 -0.68 GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 784.9 104.2 4 0.24 +1.86 KRZHb1 Karagandy Zharyk LLP 514.5 68.5 2 0.16 +0.57 BTAIb5 BTA Ipoteka JSC 497.1 66.1 4 0.15 +1.78 KZIKb9 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 417.0 55.1 2 0.13 X CCBNb10 Bank CenterCredit JSC 379.9 50.5 1 0.12 +1.21 ATFBb2 ATFBank JSC 347.4 46.5 1 0.11 -1.40 TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 315.8 42.0 2 0.10 +3.51 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 281.4 37.4 1 0.09 +1.30 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 270.9 35.8 3 0.08 -4.68 KZIKb2 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 252.3 33.7 1 0.08 +0.65 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 222.0 29.5 3 0.07 -0.60 KZASb2 KOSTANAI MINERALS JSC 207.6 27.6 3 0.06 +0.80 BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 201.9 27.0 6 0.06 +0.42 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 181.5 24.0 1 0.05 +0.75 KKAGb1 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 170.3 22.8 2 0.05 +2.04 VTBNb3 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 77.6 10.4 1 0.02 +0.06 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 66.0 8.8 2 0.02 +0.53 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 33.8 4.5 2 0.01 -0.54 KZIKb13 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 30.9 4.1 4 0.01 +0.27 ZIG_b1 Zangar Invest Group JSC 30.7 4.1 1 0.01 +0.39 KZIKb7 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 29.2 3.9 2 0.01 +1.78 VTTHb1 ТЕХНО-LIFE JSC 27.2 3.6 1 0.01 -2.19 RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 26.2 3.5 1 0.01 -3.11 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 20.7 2.7 2 0.01 -2.56 VTSKb2 Security corporation Sary-Arka Sarbazy LLP 19.7 2.6 1 0.01 -5.76 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 18.7 2.5 1 0.01 -0.76 VTZLb1 Kazyuvelirprom JSC 15.1 2.0 1 0.005 -5.83 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 12.8 1.7 1 0.004 -4.33 CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 12.1 1.6 1 0.004 -4.71 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 11.6 1.5 1 0.004 +2.41 BTAIb3 BTA Ipoteka JSC 10.9 1.4 1 0.003 +3.98 BTAIb2 BTA Ipoteka JSC 10.8 1.4 1 0.003 +3.86 MREKb2 Mangistau distributing electricity network company JSC 9.1 1.2 1 0.003 +0.97 UKPFb1 Ust-Kamenogorsk poultry factory JSC 3.3 0.4 1 0.001 +1.04 -------- ------------------------ --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 67 330,149.6 43,880.6 255 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Figure means order number of bonds issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in analyzed period. [2006-02-13]