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Market and Company News
13.02.2006 23:51

ANALYSIS: In January 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE grew owing to involving of new securities in circulation

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 13, 06/ - In January 2006 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 255 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT43,880.6 m. or $330.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 80.9% of exchange turnover of the month (in December 2005 - 45.3%) and 4.0% from the whole monthly turnover (2.8%).

Change of securities lists of corporate bonds, trade on KASE, January 2006

-------------------------------------
                  Bonds:     Issuers:
Category of -------------------------
admission   number trend number trend
----------- ------ ----- ------ -----
A              138     0     49     0
B                8     0      8    +1
----------- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B            146     0     57    +1
----------- ------ ----- ------ -----
TOTAL          146   +11     99    +8
-------------------------------------

Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category;
"B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Statistical characteristics of corporate bonds market on KASE in January 2006

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             Month:
                                         --------------------------       Trend
Indicator                                January 2006 December 2005 Jan 2006 to
                                                                      Dec. 2005
---------------------------------------- ------------ ------------- -----------
Trade volume, th. USD                       330,149.6     205,810.0      +60.4%
Trade volume, m. KZT                         43,880.6      27,541.4      +59.3%
incl. on floatations, USD th.                 9,193.6         380.0   +2,319.2%
incl. on floatations, KZT m.                  1,226.2          50.8   +2,314.1%
Inc. deals of secondary market, USD th.     320,955.9     205,430.0      +56.2%
Incl. deals of secondary market, KZT m.      42,654.4      27,490.6      +55.2%
Number of deals                                   255           307      -16.9%
incl. in floatations                                5             1     +400.0%
Inc. in secondary market                          250           306      -18.3%
Number of instruments involved in deals            67            75      -10.7%
Stake of direct deals (number), %                31.4          33.9     -2.5,пп
Stake of direct deals (volume), %                 7.5          23.5    -16.0,пп
Pension assets participation, % gross            16.4          25.5     -9.1,пп
Number of exchange's members, made deals           41            36      +13.9%
Market concentration, %*                         71.3          42.6    +28.7,пп
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*percentage from total bond turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable
 securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of bonds, admitted to
 trading on KASE, is shown)

Statistics characteristics, given in the table, fix essential increase of emission activity of listing companies. However growth of turnover of exchange primary market cannot be explained by activation of secondary market. In January on KASE were floated debt liabilities only by Kazakhstan Mortgage Company - bonds of issues KZPC1Y03B142 (KZIKb9), KZPC2Y05B145 (KZIKb10) and KZPC1Y10B543 (KZIKb11). Out of them only KZIKb11 were rated as the most traded securities on KASE, made by volume of operations given in secondary market, but they are below of this rating. This is explained by tradition of Kazakhstan market, as per which most volume of bonds, purchased in specialized trades of KASE, sets in portfolios of investors till maturity.

Regarding the above mentioned rating, in January it included liabilities of seven names, which characterize concentration of market, given in the table of statistics characteristics: BTASb5, CCBNb12, KZIKb3, CCBNb11, ASBNb3, BTASb4 and KZIKb11. Stake of these instruments was 71.3% of the stock exchange's turnover of corporate bonds in sector of KASE's secondary market.

Comparing this rating with compared data by the results of trades (the table is given at the end of the review) we, nevertheless, will see, that more than half of turnover of corresponding KASE market is controlled by new securities, occupying in rating first two positions - BTASb5 and CCBNb12. to such kind of securities also CCBNb11 and KZIKb11 are related. In other words, liquidity of secondary market in analyzed market was supported by "fresh" bonds, and it is not excluded, that their floatation was hold on KASE by market makers and underwriters, but in sector of secondary market. These floatations were simply declared as primary.

From the above said IRBIS specialists are inclined to make conclusion that activation of circulation of corporate bonds on KASE in January 2006 was caused mainly by growth of issue activity of issuers and their aspiration to float in the market new portions of their debt.

By the number of concluded deals in absolute leaders of January were BTASb5 (39 deals). Afterwards followed KATRb1 (22), ASFIb7 (12) and CCBNb11 (11), and the fifth pace divided between themselves BTASb4 and KZALb1 (10). Positions of leader in this rating relative to December 2005 could keep KATRb1 and BTASb4.

Main indicators of KASE's corporate bonds market in January 2006

--------------------------------------------------------------
          Market.
         value of    Index                 Volume of Volume of
            debt, KASE_BY,   Index   Index    deals,   deals,,
Date       USD m.    % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC   USD th.    KZT m.
-------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
30.12.05  8,247.7     7.19  187.19  129.55  43,652.7   5,839.4
04.01.06  8,260.7     7.11  187.70  129.91   1,244.1     166.5
05.01.06  8,250.6     7.14  187.48  129.76  50,072.1   6,700.2
06.01.06  8,249.9     7.11  187.80  129.95   1,941.9     259.9
09.01.06  8,245.1     7.17  187.48  129.63   6,570.8     879.3
12.01.06  8,251.4     7.10  188.10  130.03  32,603.1   4,357.4
13.01.06  8,251.8     7.15  187.79  129.74  13,415.8   1,792.4
14.01.06  8,255.1     7.16  187.76  129.71  22,479.6   3,001.3
16.01.06  8,262.5     7.15  187.90  129.77   4,024.9     537.4
17.01.06  8,271.1     7.14  188.18  129.95  15,109.6   2,013.0
18.01.06  8,273.1     7.17  188.02  129.79  12,505.8   1,664.5
19.01.06  8,273.3     7.14  188.30  129.98  12,057.9   1,604.8
20.01.06  8,276.0     7.15  188.28  129.91   2,815.8     374.3
23.01.06  8,282.2     7.14  188.44  129.97   3,400.6     451.4
24.01.06  8,288.1     7.13  188.54  130.03   2,053.9     272.1
25.01.06  8,291.0     7.14  188.57  129.99  50,069.7   6,628.2
26.01.06  8,300.6     7.16  188.43  129.87  73,066.6   9,648.4
27.01.06  8,299.3     7.17  188.43  129.86  13,243.3   1,749.3
30.01.06  8,289.0     7.20  188.25  129.64   6,473.4     855.6
31.01.06  8,289.8     7.18  188.46  129.78   7,000.6     924.6
-------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
Trend       +42.1   -0.005   +1.28   +0.23       
            +0.5%   -0.07%  +0.68%  +0.18%       
--------------------------------------------------------------

Out of 67 names of bonds, involved in deals of January, 41 securities were characterized by positive change of average weighted dirty prices, by negative - 19. Prices of seven new debt instruments were nothing to be compared with. Leaders of growth (by 5.7%) became KZIKb3, drop (by 5.8%) - VTZLb1. Growth of average weighted day dirty prices by 5% and more showed one security, whereas two bonds were characterized by considerable decrease of prices. By concluded deals yield of bonds to maturity for buyers grew in January of 29 securities, decreased of 31.

Information, given in the table of main indicators and in the text under it, allows to make the following conclusion.

To all appearances, good positions of KZIKb3 in rating of traded corporate bonds on KASE in January are caused by considerable revaluation of these bonds, this is possible to result in nearest future in drop of their price. At the same time market of corporate bonds on KASE in January was characterized by high price stability and minimum change of indexes, fluctuations of which we may rank as working. That is why local revaluation or underestimation of debts at local market happens seldom.

Summary data by the results of trades in bonds on KASE in January 2006 (purchase and sale, inluding primary offerings)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    Volume of deals:
Code     Brief                    --------- --------   Num- Market   Price
of       name of                        th.       m. ber of share, change,
security Issuer                         USD      KZT  deals      %       %
-------- ------------------------ --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
BTASb5   Bank TuranAlem JSC       168,253.5 22,339.0     39  50.96       X
CCBNb12  Bank CenterCredit JSC     16,379.3  2,180.9      5   4.96       X
KZIKb3   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC               12,867.2  1,709.5      8   3.90   +5.65
CCBNb11  Bank CenterCredit JSC     10,990.7  1,460.4     11   3.33       X
ASBNb3   Alliance Bank JSC          9,677.8  1,293.6      7   2.93   -0.14
BTASb4   Bank TuranAlem JSC         9,477.0  1,266.2     10   2.87   +1.40
KZIKb11  Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                7,614.5  1,017.7      1   2.31       X
HSBKb8   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC     7,186.3    956.4      1   2.18   +0.36
TEBNb6   Temirbank JSC              6,741.2    900.0      1   2.04   +0.34
ASFIb7   Astana-Finance JSC         6,244.3    825.1     12   1.89   +0.61
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                5,941.5    784.9      4   1.80   +0.69
NRBNb3   Nurbank JSC                5,533.9    737.3      2   1.68   +0.55
PRKRb1   Production contract
         corporation JSC            5,210.4    696.3      2   1.58   +0.18
KZIKb6   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                4,690.0    623.7      8   1.42   +2.01
KATRb1   KazAgroTrade+ LLP          4,382.8    584.3     22   1.33   +1.06
ATFBb5   ATFBank JSC                4,129.2    546.3      6   1.25   +0.26
CSBNb4   BANK CASPIAN JSC           3,967.4    530.2      4   1.20   +0.38
HSBKb10  Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC     3,831.3    511.3      3   1.16   +1.10
TEBNb4   Temirbank JSC              3,509.8    469.1      2   1.06   -3.77
ATFBb4   ATFBank JSC                3,426.2    452.4      1   1.04   -1.09
VITAb4   VITA JSC                   3,309.6    437.5      2   1.00   +0.71
KZAPb1   NAC Kazatomprom JSC        3,163.0    417.8      1   0.96   +0.66
KKGBb2   Kazkommertsbank JSC        2,758.8    366.1      2   0.84   -1.88
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC          2,724.3    364.4      5   0.83   +1.58
CSBNb6   BANK CASPIAN JSC           2,226.7    297.6      4   0.67   +2.07
KZALb1   Mining-metallurgical
         concern Kazakhaltyn JSC    1,983.5    262.0     10   0.60   +0.66
NFBNb1   NEFTEBANK JSC              1,867.8    250.0      1   0.57       X
BTAIb7   BTA Ipoteka JSC            1,519.2    200.6      1   0.46   -3.12
KZIKb10  Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                1,162.1    153.5      2   0.35       X
ASFIb3   Astana-Finance JSC         1,019.2    135.0      1   0.31   -0.75
HSBKb    Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC       973.3    129.8      3   0.29   +0.42
NRBNb4   Nurbank JSC                  949.4    126.3      4   0.29   +0.47
BTAIb4   BTA Ipoteka JSC              927.8    123.0      8   0.28   -0.68
GLOTb1   GLOTUR JSC                   784.9    104.2      4   0.24   +1.86
KRZHb1   Karagandy Zharyk LLP         514.5     68.5      2   0.16   +0.57
BTAIb5   BTA Ipoteka JSC              497.1     66.1      4   0.15   +1.78
KZIKb9   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  417.0     55.1      2   0.13       X
CCBNb10  Bank CenterCredit JSC        379.9     50.5      1   0.12   +1.21
ATFBb2   ATFBank JSC                  347.4     46.5      1   0.11   -1.40
TSBNb2   Tsesnabank JSC               315.8     42.0      2   0.10   +3.51
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK JSC               281.4     37.4      1   0.09   +1.30
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC           270.9     35.8      3   0.08   -4.68
KZIKb2   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  252.3     33.7      1   0.08   +0.65
ASFIb5   Astana-Finance JSC           222.0     29.5      3   0.07   -0.60
KZASb2   KOSTANAI MINERALS JSC        207.6     27.6      3   0.06   +0.80
BTAIb1   BTA Ipoteka JSC              201.9     27.0      6   0.06   +0.42
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC           181.5     24.0      1   0.05   +0.75
KKAGb1   Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC        170.3     22.8      2   0.05   +2.04
VTBNb3   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        77.6     10.4      1   0.02   +0.06
HSBKb2   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        66.0      8.8      2   0.02   +0.53
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC                      33.8      4.5      2   0.01   -0.54
KZIKb13  Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                   30.9      4.1      4   0.01   +0.27
ZIG_b1   Zangar Invest Group JSC       30.7      4.1      1   0.01   +0.39
KZIKb7   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                   29.2      3.9      2   0.01   +1.78
VTTHb1   ТЕХНО-LIFE JSC                27.2      3.6      1   0.01   -2.19
RGBRb3   RG Brands JSC                 26.2      3.5      1   0.01   -3.11
ASBNb1   Alliance Bank JSC             20.7      2.7      2   0.01   -2.56
VTSKb2   Security corporation
         Sary-Arka Sarbazy LLP         19.7      2.6      1   0.01   -5.76
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                   18.7      2.5      1   0.01   -0.76
VTZLb1   Kazyuvelirprom JSC            15.1      2.0      1  0.005   -5.83
CSBNb3   BANK CASPIAN JSC              12.8      1.7      1  0.004   -4.33
CCBNb6   Bank CenterCredit JSC         12.1      1.6      1  0.004   -4.71
CCBNb4   Bank CenterCredit JSC         11.6      1.5      1  0.004   +2.41
BTAIb3   BTA Ipoteka JSC               10.9      1.4      1  0.003   +3.98
BTAIb2   BTA Ipoteka JSC               10.8      1.4      1  0.003   +3.86
MREKb2   Mangistau
         distributing electricity
         network company JSC            9.1      1.2      1  0.003   +0.97
UKPFb1   Ust-Kamenogorsk
         poultry factory JSC            3.3      0.4      1  0.001   +1.04
-------- ------------------------ --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL    67                       330,149.6 43,880.6    255  100.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Figure means order number of bonds issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in analyzed period.

[2006-02-13]