ANALYSIS: IRBIS AGENCY (KAZAKHSTAN) RANKED INVESMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF LISTING SHARES OF KASE FOR YEARS 2004-2005
/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 8, 06/ - IRBIS the Information agency of financial markets (Almaty) ranked investment attractiveness of listing shares, traded on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE), having examined change of their cost o the open market in years 2004-2005. Results of the researches are given in tables below ("p" letter in security's symbol means preferred shares, others - common shares).
Raking of shares, based on change of their market rates in year 2005
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Price change, % APR
-------------------- Volume
Share Brief on on of market Number
code name purchase market deals, of market
on KASE of shares issuer quotations deals th. USD deals
------- ------------------------- ---------- -------- --------- ---------
HSBK Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC +1,113.9 +1,442.7 7,592.5 32
KZZN KAZZINC JSC +368.8 +261.9 3,028.4 72
AMGZ CNPC-AMG OJSC +294.8 +312.1 284.0 46
KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC +205.7 +271.1 4,772.6 59
CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC +189.7 +506.2 237.1 35
BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC +141.9 +427.3 3,568.7 28
KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC +127.7 +145.7 188.2 10
KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC +119.9 +212.5 42.3 16
ASFI Astana-Finance JSC +91.4 +70.0 2,146.0 148
NRBN Nurbank JSC +100.7 Х 369.2 1
KANT Kant JSC +75.0 Х 6.1 1
NRBNp6 Nurbank JSC +68.9 +41.3 7.8 1
TEBNp Temirbank JSC +65.6 Х 70,452.8 178
ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC +59.3 +51.8 5,510.0 7
CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC +56.5 +97.0 11,232.3 68
ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC +58.0 +82.9 6,858.7 12
CSBNp BANK CASPIAN JSC +49.1 +75.4 6.8 10
BTASp Bank TuranAlem JSC +47.9 +180.5 15.7 2
ATFB ATFBank JSC +38.9 +350.0 3,037.1 6
ATFBp ATFBank JSC +38.3 +23.7 1,221.6 10
KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC +27.1 +9.3 10,776.6 242
ALKS ALMATY KUS JSC +20.0 +66.7 3,152.8 14
TSBNp Tsesnabank JSC +16.7 +25.0 7.4 1
HSBKp Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC +16.7 +16.3 198.6 6
HSBKp7 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC +16.7 Х 0 0
ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC +15.7 +10.6 27,246.1 13
TXBN TEXAKABANK JSC +7.4 Х 0 0
VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC +2.2 +1.5 3,414.3 35
VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC +1.0 +9.4 12,821.1 48
TEBN Temirbank JSC +0.6 0 24,509.1 53
ROSA ROSA JSC +0.5 +12.0 5,551.0 28
ALKSp ALMATY KUS JSC 0 Х 1.2 1
ALKSp3 ALMATY KUS JSC 0 Х 0.038 1
TSBN Tsesnabank JSC 0 0 1,187.6 9
UTMKp Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
magnesium combine 0 +120.0 22.7 2
UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
magnesium combine -0.9 0 136.4 2
HRLT CHARALTYN JSC -5.5 +52.3 10,680.0 22
ASBN Alliance Bank JSC -6.8 +41.7 2,499.3 8
------- ------------------------- ---------- -------- --------- ---------
Average on the list: +90,1 +154.9
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Note: HSBK - taking into account split; TEBNp - market deals were absent till
June of 2005.
Raking of shares, based on change of their market rates in years 2004-2005
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Price change, % APR
------------------- Volume Number
Share Brief on on of market on
code name purchase market deals, purchase
on KASE of shares issuer quotations deals th. USD quotations
------- ------------------------- ----------- ------ --------- ----------
HSBK Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC +410.8 +20.7 7,593.4 38
KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC +217.5 +306.7 8,490.7 77
KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC +147.8 +208.0 42.4 17
AMGZ CNPC-AMG OJSC +147.2 Х 285.4 47
KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC +146.0 +187.5 200.2 17
CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC +94.7 +252.7 249.5 48
BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC +76.7 +169.3 4,088.8 33
ASFI Astana-Finance JSC +56.6 +71.3 3,487.7 155
TEBNp Temirbank JSC +32.3 Х 70,452.8 178
KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC +31.4 +17.1 17,315.8 287
CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC +29.6 +49.9 48,860.7 176
CSBNp BANK CASPIAN JSC +22.8 +37.7 9.8 18
TSBN Tsesnabank JSC +21.4 Х 1,195.2 11
ATFB ATFBank JSC +19.4 +99.9 9,479.1 9
ATFBp ATFBank JSC +19.1 +13.0 2,701.9 19
ALKS ALMATY KUS JSC +8.4 +25.0 4,555.3 22
ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC +7.8 Х 29,013.5 18
TXBN TEXAKABANK JSC +6.8 Х 0 0
HSBKp Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC +6.1 +11.1 419.2 8
HSBKp7 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC +6.1 Х 0 0
VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC +0.7 +0.4 23,505.2 85
TEBN Temirbank JSC +0.1 -0.7 33,444.6 155
ALKSp ALMATY KUS JSC 0 0 1.2 1
ALKSp3 ALMATY KUS JSC 0 Х 0.04 1
HRLT CHARALTYN JSC -2.4 +10.5 20,074.0 44
VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC -4.3 +2.3 10,338.5 72
UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
magnesium combine -6.9 -11.0 168.7 7
UTMKp Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
magnesium combine -30.0 -13.3 42.5 13
------- ------------------------- ----------- ------ --------- ----------
Average on the list: +48,9 +63.8
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Note: HSBK - taking into account split; AMGZ - market deals were absent till
December of 2004; ASFI - calculated from April of 2004; TEBNp - market deals
were absent till June of 2005; TSBN - unrepresentative trade statistics for
year 2004; ATFBp8 - market deals were absent till August of 2004.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF RANKING METHOD
Shares cost on purchase quotations was adopted by IRBIS from files of market estimation, which KASE generates every week in compliance with exchange's internal document "Securities estimation methodology". The methodology is available at see more While estimating shares yields by this method specialists used results of market estimation of shares, symbols of which are given in the tables, as of January 1 of 2004, 2005 and 2006.
Shares cost on market deals was determined in the following way. Cost of each share at the beginning of the analyzed period was determined as this share's weighted average price, calculated on deals of the last effective for this share day, which preceded to the analyzed period's first day. Share's cost at the end of the period was calculated in similar way and the difference was the fact that data on deals of the last effective for this share day, which preceded to the analyzed period's last day, was taken into account. In other words, weighted average shares prices, which were relevant at the beginning and at the end of analyzed periods, were considered. The successful for share day is a trading day, during which at least one market deal was made in this share on KASE. Estimation of each share, made by this method, was made only when successful days were close to the end and the beginning of the analyzed period (excluding cases mentioned in notes for tables). Shares not meeting this requirement, were either not considered in the ranking at all, or were marked with "X" in corresponding column.
Specialists of IRBIS remark that change of prices, received by the mentioned method, are given as percentage per annum. In other words for year 2005 this indicator is equal to absolute change of prices in percentage, for the period of years 2004-2005 is reflects average speed of shares cost change in this period or the yield, which investor could get, if he had bought the share at open trades on KASE in the end of year 2003 and having sold it in the end of 2005.
Average on the list (these values are shown in the last row of each table) is indicator of yield, which investor could get in the mentioned period, having formed portfolio of equal number of shares shown in the ranking.
Volumes of open market deals, made on KASE in the analyzed periods, and number of these deals, are shown in ranking tables as reference information, characterizing liquidity of ranged shares on KASE.
IRBIS notes that in all calculations, concerned with this ranking, exchange's deals in shares, made by nego deals method, were not considered.
BRIEF COMMENT ON RANKING
In the opinion of IRBIS data of KASE's market estimation is also the most representative and conservative on а Kazakhstan stock market, which is not notable with the liquidity of shares traded on it and has big volatility of prices and quotations. Method of quotations fluctuations smoothing is considered in market estimation mechanism, this does not let anomalous values of separate demand prices considerably influence upon results of the estimation. Precisely on this reason the basis of the mentioned ranking is change of shares prices, calculated by market estimation method, and shares in the tables are sorted mainly in descending order of this indicator. Those who study the ranking can sort shares in another consequence preferring one of liquidity indicators (by the volume of transactions and number of deals), or taking into account change of shares cost on market deals.
Specialists of IRBIS do not disclaim that problems on shares liquidity on KASE, which are well illustrated by the ranking, considerable reduce investment attractiveness of shares traded on Kazakhstan stock exchange. At the same time, results of researches let say about coming of Kazakhstan's organized share market in year 2005 to qualitatively new level, due to which it becomes more attractive for retail investor - physical persons, who wish to join exchange's playing with shares with rather small volume of money, comparable with volumes of compulsory quotations of market-makers.
IRBIS agency gives notice that material given above is not an offer or recommendation to sell or buy shares on KASE. Using it by anyone while taking investment decision does not make IRBIS agency responsible for possible losses, resulting from such the decisions.
[2006-02-08]