ANALYSIS: As of February 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT599.0 bn. or $4,531.7 m.
/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 7, 06/ - As of February 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT599.0 bn., or $4,531.7 m. at the rate of KZT132.17 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from November of 2005 till January of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from February of 2005 till January of 2006.
Within January 1 - 31 of 2006 total debt increased by KZT2.9 bn. (+0.49%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 76.1 m. (+1.71%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in December of 2005 were -KZT3.7 bn. (-0.61%) or -$17.4 m. (-0.39%).
Following table contains detailed information.
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Amount and structure of debt
---------------------------- Change
as of as of for the
*Currency of Jan 31, 06 Dec 31, 05 period
------------- ----------------- ---------- ---------------
Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
National Bank KZT KZT 146.255 24.4 161.275 -15,020.7 -9.3
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
Ministry of Finance 446.061 74.5 428.034 +18,027.0 +4.2
incl. face value 361.406 60.3 345.030 +16,376.0 +4.7
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 315.146 52.6 298.210 +16,936.0 +5.7
also, euronotes USD USD 46.260 7.7 46.820 -560.0 -1.2
incl. servicing 84.655 14.1 83.004 +1,651.0 +2.0
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 76.935 12.8 75.191 +1,744.5 +2.3
also, euronotes USD USD 7.720 1.3 7.813 -93.5 -1.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
Municipals USD KZT 6.640 1.1 6.720 -80.4 -1.2
incl. face value USD KZT 5.725 1.0 5.794 -69.3 -1.2
incl. servicing USD KZT 0.915 0.2 0.926 -11.1 -1.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.203 0.4 2.229 -26.7 -1.2
also, face value USD KZT 1.985 0.3 2.009 -24.0 -1.2
also, servicing USD KZT 0.218 0.04 0.221 -2.6 -1.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.437 0.7 4.491 -53.7 -1.2
akimat
also, face value USD KZT 3.740 0.6 3.785 -45.3 -1.2
also, servicing USD KZT 0.697 0.1 0.705 -8.4 -1.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
TOTAL 598.955 100.0 596.029 +2,925.9 +0.49
incl. face value 513.385 85.7 512.099 +1,286.0 +0.3
incl. servicing 85.570 14.3 83.930 +1,640.0 +2.0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 544.976 91.0 541.397 +3,579.4 +0.7
also, face value KZT KZT 467.126 78.0 465.280 +1,846.0 +0.4
also, servicing KZT KZT 77.850 13.0 76.117 +1,733.4 +2.3
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. external debt USD USD 53.979 9.0 54.633 -653.5 -1.2
also, face value USD USD 46.260 7.7 46.820 -560.0 -1.2
also, servicing USD USD 7.720 1.3 7.813 -93.5 -1.2
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* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
Equivalents as of January 31, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT132.17 per dollar, as of December 31, 05 - at KZT132.77. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.
Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table.
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Amount and structure of debt
---------------------------- Change
as of as of for the
*Currency of Jan 31, 06 Dec 31, 05 period
------------- ----------------- ---------- ---------------
Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
National Bank KZT KZT 1,106.6 24.4 1,205.6 -99,052.4 -8.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
Ministry of Finance 3,374.9 74.5 3,199.8 +175,128.1 +5.5
incl. face value 2,734.4 60.3 2,579.3 +155,124.8 +6.0
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 2,384.4 52.6 2,229.3 +155,124.8 +7.0
also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 7.7 350.0 0 0
incl. servicing 640.5 14.1 620.5 +20,003.3 +3.2
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 582.1 12.8 562.1 +20,003.3 +3.6
also, euronotes USD USD 58.4 1.3 58.4 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
Municipals USD KZT 50.23 1.1 50.23 0 0
incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 1.0 43.3 0 0
incl. servicing USD KZT 6.9 0.2 6.9 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
incl. Astana USD KZT 16.7 0.4 16.7 0 0
akimat
also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.3 15.0 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 1.650 0.04 1.650 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
incl. Atyrau USD KZT 33.6 0.7 33.6 0 0
region akimat
also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.6 28.3 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 5.3 0.1 5.3 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
TOTAL 4,531.7 100.0 4,455.6 +76,075.7 +1.7
incl. face value 3,884.3 85.7 3,828.2 +56,072.4 +1.5
incl. servicing 647.4 14.3 627.4 +20,003.3 +3.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 4,123.3 91.0 4,047.2 +76,075.7 +1.9
also, face value KZT KZT 3,534.3 78.0 3,478.2 +56,072.4 +1.6
also, servicing KZT KZT 589.0 13.0 569.0 +20,003.3 +3.5
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----
incl. external debt USD USD 408.4 9.0 408.4 0 0
also, face value USD USD 350.0 7.7 350.0 0 0
also, servicing USD USD 58.4 1.3 58.4 0 0
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* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in January by amounts of offering was KZT146,000.2 m. (in December - KZT191,999.8 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT161,275.5 m. (KZT212,359.4 m.). January's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT15,275.3 m. Corresponding index of December - negative KZT20,359.7 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed).
In October the Ministry of finance borrowed KZT17,000.0 m. due to MEOKAM offering (in December - KZT17,811.7 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT486.1 m. (3,746.1 m.). Janaury's net- borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT16,513.9 m. (in December - positive KZT14,065.7 m.).
Total January's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT1,238.6 m. Corresponding indicator of December - negative KZT6,343.6 m.
The shown data evidences that tactics and strategy of GS issuers in did not change January compared to December. Actually this sector "served itself". At that, the National Bank had the possibility to work with negative balance without increasing inflation risks due to compensating positive balance on debt of the Ministry of finance.
IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty).
[2006-02-07]