ANALYSIS: In year 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS decreased in nominal expression by KZT184.8 bn. or $1,532.2 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 13, 06/ - In year 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, decreased in nominal expression (without coupon payments) in current prices by KZT184.8 bn. or $1,532.2 m. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt --------------------------------- Change as of Dec 31, 05 as of Dec 31, 04 for the period Issuer bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT % ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ National Bank 161.275 27.1 407.667 53.7 -246.392 -60.4 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ Ministry of Finance 345.030 67.4 281.600 40.4 +63.430 +22.5 also, domestic GS 298.210 58.2 236.100 33.9 +62.110 +26.3 also, euronotes 46.820 9.1 45.500 6.5 +1.320 +2.9 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ Municipals 5.794 1.1 7.591 1.1 -1.797 -23.7 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ incl. Astana akimat 2.009 0.4 3.326 0.5 -1.317 -39.6 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ incl. Atyrau obl. akimat 3.785 0.7 3.679 0.5 +0.107 +2.9 incl. EKO. akimat 0 0 0.587 0.1 -0.587 -100.0 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ TOTAL 512.099 100.0 696.859 100.0 -184.759 -26.5 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ incl. internal debt 465.280 90.9 651.359 93.5 -186.079 -28.6 incl. external debt 46.820 9.1 45.500 6.5 +1.320 +2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Equivalents as of December 31, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT133.77 per dollar, as of December 31, 04 - at KZT130.00. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt --------------------------------- Change as of Dec 31, 05 as of Dec 31, 04 for the period Issuer m. USD stake, % m. USD stake, % m. USD % ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ National Bank 1,205.6 27.1 3,135.9 53.7 -1,930.3 -61.6 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ Ministry of Finance 2,579.3 67.4 2,166.2 40.4 +413.1 +19.1 also, domestic GS 2,229.3 58.2 1,816.2 33.9 +413.1 +22.7 also, euronotes 350.0 9.1 350.0 6.5 0 0 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ Municipals 43.3 1.1 58.4 1.1 -15.1 -25.8 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ incl. Astana akimat 15.0 0.4 25.6 0.5 -10.6 -41.3 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ incl. Atyrau obl. akimat 28.3 0.7 28.3 0.5 0 0 incl. EKO. akimat 0 0 4.5 0.08 -4.5 -100.0 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ TOTAL 3,828.2 100.0 5,360.5 100.0 -1,532.2 -28.6 ------------------------ ------- -------- ------- -------- -------- ------ incl. internal debt 3,478.2 90.9 5,010.5 93.5 -1,532.2 -30.6 incl. external debt 350.0 9.1 350.0 6.5 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in year 2005 by amounts of floatation was KZT1,960.2 bn. (in 2004 - KZT561,891.5 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities, including advance payments, for a total of KZT2,210.3 bn. (KZT374,789.8 m.). Thus, net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT250.0 bn. Corresponding index of year 2004 - positive KZT181,101.7 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). The shown data means in year 2005 the National Bank already did not consider its notes as the major instrument for sterilizing the market from "excessive" money. Anyway, much less attention was paid on this method of sterilization in the reporting year than before. In year 2005 the Ministry of finance issued MEKAM for a total of KZT122,777.5 m. (in 2004 - KZT126,212.0 m.) Amount of coupon payments (including euronotes) and redemption of the face value at current rates totaled KZT81,369.9 m. (125,373.6 m.). Net-balance of the Ministry of finance in year 2005 is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT41,407.7 m. (in 2004 - positive KZT838.3 m.). Taking into account the fact that Ministry of finance was not interested in growth of its debt because of enough inflows to the treasury from other revenues, the shown data illustrates care of the Ministry of finance about Kazakhstan's stock market development, and more precisely - about support of institutional investors of this market and first of all, accumulative pension funds. Municipal bodies on GS market in years 2005 and 2004 did not issue bonds. Volume of redemption and servicing of this debt in 2005 totaled KZT2,682.1 m., in 2004 - KZT2,632.5 m. Thus, net-borrowing balance of domestic executive bodies of Kazakhstan's authority inв 2005 totaled negative KZT2,682.1 m., in 2004 - negative KZT2,632.5 m. Total net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers in year 2005 is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT211,290.2 m. Corresponding indicator of year 2004 - positive KZT185,307.5 m. So it follows that GS market, unlike year 2004, in year 2005 was the source of free money for investors and worked for expansion of the monetary base in Kazakhstan. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-01-13]