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Market and Company News
12.01.2006 12:22

ANALYSIS: In December of 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE grew 1.6 times mainly due to active trade in shares

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 12, 06/ - In December of 2005 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 682 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT60,736.3 m. or $453.8 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 6.1% of exchange turnover of the month (in November of 2005 - 4.7%).

In comparison with November of 2005 volume of transactions grew in dollar expression by $171,395.8 th. (by KZT22,849.0 m.) or 1.61 times (1.60 times in terms of tenge). Relative to December of 2004 volume of transactions grew by $274,543.9 th. (KZT37,427.5 m.) or 2.5 times (2.6 times in terms of tenge).

Structure of CS turnover on KASE in December was as follows: stake of purchase and sale sector was 92.9% of all made deals volume ($421,364.8 th.); the stake of primary offerings - 7.1% ($32,429.4 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in November of 2005: stake of purchase and sale sector was 88.3% of all made deals volume ($249,470.3 th.); the stake of primary offerings - 11.7% ($32,928.1 th.).

SHARE MARKET

Statistical characteristics of this segment and comparison with previous month is given in the table below.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Month:
                                          ---------  ---------         Trend
Indicator                                  December   November  Dec. to Nov.
----------------------------------------  ---------  ---------  ------------
Trade volume, th. USD                     247,984.3  113,296.2       +118.9%
Trade volume, m. KZT                       33,194.9   15,196.6       +118.4%
Number of deals                                 375        259        +44.8%
Number of instruments involved in deals          42         36        +16.7%
Stake of nego deals (number), %                45.1       67.2      -22.1 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), %                56.0       82.3      -26.3 pp
Pension assets participation, % gross           6.7        5.8       +0.9 pp
Number of exchange's members, made deals         36         41        -12.2%
Market concentration, %*                       48.0       54.8       -6.8 pp
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

*percentage from total share turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of shares, admitted to trading on KASE, is shown)

Deals in shares on KASE were made in December at securities offering (within specialized trades - HSBKp1), as well as in purchase-sale sector of the secondary market.

December's "top-5" by the volume of made transactions comprises: TMLZ (13.8% from share turnover), CCBN (13.3%), HSBKp1 (12.9%), KZCR (8.0%) and TEBNp (6.5%). Only CCBN preserved their positions in this rating in comparison with November. Last month the first 5 positions belonged to ASFI (25.6% from share turnover), BTAS (10.6%), NFBN (9.4%), UTMK (9.2%) and CCBN (7.5% from the whole share market).

By number of conducted deals - indicator, most correctly reflecting the degree of shares liquidity on KASE - in December leaders were CCBN (37 deals). They were followed by TEBNp (34), CSBN (20), KZTK (19). The fifth place belonged to TEBN, VTZL and BTAS (18). In November the list comprised CCBN (25), TEBNp (23), ASFI (22), ORDB (18) and CCBNp (16).

Out of 42 shares, involved in deals of December, weighted average daily prices of 17 shares grew, prices of 12 shares fell, prices of 9 shares remained unchanged (there was nothing to compare prices of four new instruments with).

Leader of growth was ATFB (4.1 times). The second place belongs to CSBN, their weighted average rate grew 2.9 times. BTASp grew 2.8 times. Besides, following securities' rates also grew considerably (over 30%) in December: KZTK, CCBNp, ALKS, ASBN and AMGZp.

HSBK fell most deeply (by 22.2%) as well as ZERD (by 20.8%).

KASE_Shares index by December 30 reached its historic maximum at 684.23, that is explained by growth of the rates of most capitalized companies' shares.

CORPORATE BOND MARKET

Statistical characteristics of this segment and comparison with previous month is given in the table below.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Month:
                                          ---------  ---------         Trend
Indicator                                  December   November  Dec. to Nov.
----------------------------------------  ---------  ---------  ------------
Trade volume, th. USD                     205,810.0  169,102.2        +21.7%
Trade volume, m. KZT                       27,541.4   22,690.7        +21.4%
Number of deals                                 307        285         +7.7%
Number of instruments involved in deals          75         62        +21.0%
Stake of nego deals (number), %                33.9       34.7       -0.8 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), %                23.5       28.2       -4.7 pp
Pension assets participation, % gross          25.5       18.4       +7.1 pp
Number of exchange's members, made deals         36         41        -12.2%
Market concentration, %*                       42.6       46.6       -4.0 pp
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

*percentage from total bond turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of bonds, admitted to trading on KASE, is shown)

December deals in corporate bonds on KASE were concluded at securities offering (within specialized trades - KZIKb12), as well as in purchase and sale sector of the secondary market.

5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as on the end of analyzed month (i.e. 7 securities, which were ASFIb7, ALKSb2, BTAIb8, KKAGb1, KATRb1, ASFIb5 and VTBNb3), formed 42.6% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds. By the number of made deals December's absolute leader was ASFIb7 (43 deals). They followed by VTBNb3 (28), ALKSb2 (15), KATRb1 and NRBNb4 (10), and the fifth place belonged to KKAGb1, CCBNb10, KZASb2 and BTASb4 (8). Relative to November ALKSb2 and KATRb1 preserved leading positions in the rating.

Out of 75 bonds involved into deals of December weighted average dirty prices of 43 grew, prices of 28 ones fell, there was nothing to compare prices of 4 instruments with. TEBNb4 grew most highly (by 32.9%), KZIKb3 fell most deeply (by 8.2%). Weighted average daily prices of 6 securities grew by 5% and more, whereas prices of two bonds fell considerably.

28 securities' yields to maturity for a buyer grew, yields of 43 instruments fell. Nevertheless, KASE_BY index remained almost on the same level (table below). This occurred because as a result of rather high volatility the index grew on December 30 to 7.19% APR from 7.12% Apr on November 29. KASE_BY by the end of the second ten-day period of December stopped moving down within the channel, formed in the middle of November, and fluctuates at 7.13% APR.

Below is statistical and reference information, characterizing CS market on KASE in December of 2005.

Change of KASE's securities lists in December of 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month)

--------------------------------------------------------
                   Shares:         Bonds:       Issuers:
             -------------  -------------  -------------
Category of
admission    number  trend  number  trend  number  trend
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A                51     +2     138     +9      61     +5
B                39     +3       8     +2      35     +4
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A+B              90     +5     146    +11      94     +9
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
N                 8      0       0      0       8      0
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
TOTAL            98     +5     146    +11      99     +8
--------------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category;
"A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Summary data by the results of trades in CS on KASE in December of 2005 (purchase and sale, excluding deals in SBS, but including primary offerings)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Volume of deals:
 Code    Brief                       --------- --------   Num- Market   Price
of       name of                           th.       m. ber of share, change,
security Issuer                            USD      KZT  deals      %       %
-------- --------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TMLZ     Temirleasing JSC             34,218.0  4,579.6     13   7.54       -
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit JSC        32,926.8  4,414.0     37   7.25       0
HSBKp1   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC       32,049.4  4,285.8      5   7.06   +2.44
KZCR     TNC Kazchrome JSC            19,827.2  2,656.9      5   4.37       0
ASFIb7   Astana-Finance JSC           16,339.0  2,189.3     43   3.60   -3.65
TEBNp    Temirbank JSC                16,187.1  2,163.7     34   3.57   -1.61
ALKSb2   ALMATY KUS JSC               16,125.5  2,154.2     15   3.55   -2.07
BTAIb8   BTA Ipoteka JSC              14,980.2  2,004.6      7   3.30  +13.00
KZTC     KazTransCom JSC              12,904.1  1,728.9      4   2.84       -
KKAGb1   Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC        11,984.8  1,604.5      8   2.64   +0.17
KATRb1   KazAgroTrade+ LLP            10,862.0  1,455.9     10   2.39   -1.94
TEBN     Temirbank JSC                10,329.0  1,381.7     18   2.28   -1.23
ASFI     Astana-Finance JSC            9,699.8  1,296.3     17   2.14   +6.67
ASFIb5   Astana-Finance JSC            9,435.5  1,265.3      4   2.08   +1.27
CCBNp    Bank CenterCredit JSC         8,317.8  1,114.8     10   1.83  +34.02
VTBNb3   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        7,933.9  1,061.5     28   1.75   -3.10
TEBNb6   Temirbank JSC                 7,819.4  1,046.0      2   1.72       -
ALKZ     Aluminium of Kazakhstan JSC   7,662.6  1,027.0      5   1.69       0
HSBKb8   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        7,124.4    953.0      1   1.57   +0.81
KZIKb3   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                   7,041.7    942.4      7   1.55   -8.20
KKGBp    Kazkommertsbank JSC           6,859.3    918.0     10   1.51   -2.11
VTBN     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        6,849.6    916.9      9   1.51   -1.20
ORDB     Corporation Ordabasy JSC      6,841.6    914.4      6   1.51       0
NRBNb3   Nurbank JSC                   6,032.1    806.8      7   1.33   -2.45
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                   5,717.8    764.3      4   1.26   -3.54
NFBN     NEFTEBANK JSC                 5,584.9    748.4     12   1.23       0
CSBNb6   BANK CASPIAN JSC              5,298.5    709.1      5   1.17   -0.32
VITAb4   VITA JSC                      4,939.1    660.5      6   1.09   +2.34
KZCRp    TNC Kazchrome JSC             4,905.1    657.2      3   1.08       0
CCBNb10  Bank CenterCredit JSC         4,740.0    635.4      8   1.04   +0.31
PDES     PAVLODARENEROSERVIE JSC       4,719.5    631.5     12   1.04       -
TEBNb4   Temirbank JSC                 3,643.6    487.4      2   0.80  +32.85
BTAIb4   BTA Ipoteka JSC               3,515.5    469.9      4   0.77   +0.78
ALKZp    Aluminium of Kazakhstan JSC   3,441.4    461.1      3   0.76       0
BTAIb7   BTA Ipoteka JSC               3,409.1    455.1      3   0.75   +0.66
KZTK     Kazakhtelecom JSC             3,310.4    442.0     19   0.73  +69.86
GLOTb1   GLOTUR JSC                    3,289.3    439.6      2   0.72   +0.63
ORNK     Ornek XXI JSC                 3,236.6    433.5      4   0.71   -3.85
TXBNb3   TEXAKABANK JSC                3,175.4    425.3      6   0.70   -0.81
KZIKb5   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                   3,154.2    422.9      2   0.69   +2.25
KZAPb1   NAC Kazatomprom JSC           3,142.2    420.3      1   0.69   +3.14
BTASb3   Bank TuranAlem JSC            3,006.3    401.9      2   0.66   +2.28
AZNO     Aktyubinsk oil equipment
         plant JSC                     2,994.3    400.0      2   0.66       0
ALKS     ALMATY KUS JSC                2,947.4    394.5      6   0.65  +50.00
VTZL     Kazyuvelirprom JSC            2,525.9    337.9     18   0.56       0
BTAIb6   BTA Ipoteka JSC               2,348.3    313.8      4   0.52   -3.43
KZTKp    Kazakhtelecom JSC             2,310.4    308.9     12   0.51   +4.29
HSBKb10  Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        2,270.2    303.5      2   0.50   +1.13
CSBNb4   BANK CASPIAN JSC              2,252.8    300.8      3   0.50   +1.79
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC             2,194.8    293.7      3   0.48   -0.21
HSBKb9   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        2,130.0    285.3      6   0.47   +1.02
NRBNb4   Nurbank JSC                   2,007.6    268.4     10   0.44   -2.87
BTAS     Bank TuranAlem JSC            1,969.1    263.4     18   0.43  +11.11
KZPSb1   Kazpost JSC                   1,786.2    238.9      1   0.39   -0.32
CCBNb6   Bank CenterCredit JSC         1,658.6    222.4      7   0.37  +10.86
KKGBb2   Kazkommertsbank JSC           1,644.7    219.8      2   0.36   +5.45
VTBNb4   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        1,642.3    219.3      1   0.36   +0.03
HSBKb3   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        1,554.1    208.5      2   0.34   -4.85
ZERD     Zerde JSC                     1,552.2    207.7     10   0.34  -20.79
BTAIb5   BTA Ipoteka JSC               1,538.5    206.4      3   0.34   -0.49
CCBNb8   Bank CenterCredit JSC         1,533.9    205.6      1   0.34   +1.23
CCBNb4   Bank CenterCredit JSC         1,300.2    173.8      5   0.29   +3.77
KZIKb6   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                   1,276.2    170.7      1   0.28   -0.25
KRZHb1   Karagandy Zharyk LLP          1,210.5    161.9      3   0.27       -
KKGBb3   Kazkommertsbank JSC           1,165.1    155.8      1   0.26   +1.44
HSBKb    Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        1,164.6    155.6      3   0.26   +0.94
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC            1,145.8    153.3      2   0.25   +0.50
TSBNb2   Tsesnabank JSC                1,119.3    149.9      7   0.25   +0.19
VTBNb1   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        1,031.9    138.0      3   0.23   +1.30
NRBNb2   Nurbank JSC                     915.6    122.4      1   0.20   -7.43
KZZN     KAZZINC JSC                     834.5    111.6     10   0.18   -1.33
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                     830.4    110.9      2   0.18   +2.43
KZASb2   KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC           807.5    108.2      8   0.18   -1.11
ATFBp8   ATFBank JSC                     771.7    103.4      1   0.17   -0.75
ASBNb3   Alliance Bank JSC               703.0     94.0      2   0.15   +0.64
DNBN     DANABANK JSC                    657.0     88.1      2   0.14   +3.03
MREKb2   Mangistau
         distributing electricity
         network company JSC             577.1     77.1      1   0.13   +1.45
VTBNb2   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC          483.7     64.7      1   0.11   -2.28
BTASb4   Bank TuranAlem JSC              436.6     58.5      8   0.10   +4.02
ATFBb4   ATFBank JSC                     394.0     52.7      3   0.09   -1.69
MMGZp    Mangistaumunaygas JSC           381.5     51.0      1   0.08  +27.27
KZIKb12  Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                     380.0     50.8      1   0.08       -
HSBKb2   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC          369.3     49.3      4   0.08   +0.69
CCBNb3   Bank CenterCredit JSC           356.5     47.8      1   0.08   -0.20
KZIKb2   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                     354.2     47.4      2   0.08   -4.85
HSBK     Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC          341.7     45.7     14   0.08  -22.22
ZIG_b1   Zangar Invest Group JSC         319.7     42.8      1   0.07       -
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC              288.7     38.6      1   0.06   -3.68
BTAIb1   BTA Ipoteka JSC                 278.6     37.3      4   0.06   +0.28
KZTCb1   KazTransCom JSC                 230.5     30.8      1   0.05   -2.17
VTBNp    Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC          220.6     29.5      2   0.05   +4.69
TEBNb2   Temirbank JSC                   201.1     26.8      1   0.04   +5.22
CSBNb2   BANK CASPIAN JSC                200.1     26.8      1   0.04   -2.94
CSBN     BANK CASPIAN JSC                186.6     24.9     20   0.04 +188.95
KZNHb2   Kazneftekhim JSC                186.3     25.0      2   0.04   +2.07
KZALb1   Mining-metallurgical
         concern Kazakhaltyn JSC         154.5     20.7      1   0.03   -0.95
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK JSC                  121.7     16.3      1   0.03   +0.79
ASFIb4   Astana-Finance JSC               96.2     12.9      1   0.02   +0.22
CHFMb1   Chimfarm JSC                     95.4     12.7      1   0.02   +3.51
AMGZp    CNPC - Aktobemunayas JSC         81.2     10.9      2   0.02  +72.62
BTAIb3   BTA Ipoteka JSC                  80.6     10.8      1   0.02   -3.66
PRIN     Premier StrakhovaniyeJSC         74.6     10.0      1   0.02       -
AMGZ     CNPC - Aktobemunayas JSC         73.5      9.8     10   0.02   +6.38
ATFB     ATFBank JSC                      63.8      8.5      5   0.01 +307.98
CCBNb5   Bank CenterCredit JSC            52.9      7.1      1   0.01   -1.24
ASBN     Alliance Bank JSC                52.1      7.0      4   0.01  +36.00
ASBNb4   Alliance Bank JSC                45.1      6.0      1   0.01   +2.94
ATFBb5   ATFBank JSC                      43.9      5.9      1   0.01   +0.21
KZIKb13  Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                      42.8      5.7      4   0.01   +0.24
CCBNb7   Bank CenterCredit JSC            36.7      4.9      1   0.01   +1.76
BTAIb2   BTA Ipoteka JSC                  31.7      4.2      1   0.01   +5.75
ASBNp1   Alliance Bank JSC                30.2      4.1      1   0.01  +19.96
KKGB     Kazkommertsbank JSC              24.9      3.3      6   0.01   -7.31
ROSA     ROSA JSC                         12.5      1.7      2  0.003   -0.66
KZTOe1   KazTransOil JSC                  10.7      1.4      1  0.002   +2.40
BTASp    Bank TuranAlem JSC                7.3      1.0      1  0.002 +179.89
HRLT     CHARALTYN JS                      1.1      0.2      1 <0.001   -0.60
-------- --------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL    117                         453,794.3 60,736.3    682  100.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond; "e" - eurobond;
the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the ordinal number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in analyzed period.

Main indicators of the exchange's CS market in December of 2005

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Capitaliza-           Capitaliza-
                   tion                  tion          Bond value  Volume of
                 of the                of the              index,   purchase
                  share                  bond   Bonds   including   and sale
                market,    Share      market,   yield       accum     deals,
   Date          m. USD    index       m. USD   index    interest    th. USD
----------  -----------  -------  -----------  ------  ----------  ---------
Nov 30, 05      9,002.0   512.63      7,707.0    7.18      185.32   15,532.3
Dec 1, 05       9,162.5   511.65      7,712.6    7.20      185.33   39,420.0
Dec 2, 05       9,178.1   512.67      7,716.2    7.15      186.29    2,568.1
Dec 5, 05       8,879.5   535.18      7,712.9    7.18      185.66    3,993.8
Dec 6, 05       9,304.5   506.94      7,709.8    7.14      186.07   38,842.1
Dec 7, 05       9,465.8   511.91      7,721.6    7.17      185.93    2,276.5
Dec 8, 05       9,266.9   575.90      7,716.8    7.15      185.99   10,334.5
Dec 9, 05       9,942.4   545.69      7,723.4    7.15      186.09   13,638.5
Dec 12, 05     10,057.4   551.77      7,735.9    7.16      186.31    9,808.7
Dec 13, 05      9,941.8   580.68      7,730.5    7.16      186.29    3,004.1
Dec 14, 05     10,073.9   596.19      7,733.4    7.14      186.48    9,712.2
Dec 15, 05      9,979.7   602.16      7,735.5    7.13      186.52   20,293.0
Dec 20, 05      9,932.0   603.44      7,734.6    7.09      187.01   28,318.0
Dec 21, 05     10,235.5   622.05      7,737.8    7.15      186.67   12,830.5
Dec 22, 05     10,045.6   631.29      7,740.3    7.10      187.06   10,302.9
Dec 23, 05      9,688.9   649.83      8,457.3    7.14      186.88   24,715.4
Dec 26, 05     10,792.9   674.22      8,468.5    7.14      186.94   29,684.8
Dec 27, 05     10,793.6   677.24      8,572.9    7.11      187.15   56,452.7
Dec 28, 05     10,878.1   669.11      8,777.1    7.14      187.01   25,955.3
Dec 29, 05     10,893.3   683.91      8,826.5    7.12      187.32   62,066.9
Dec 30, 05     10,521.2   684.23      8,992.3    7.19      187.19   49,576.0
----------  -----------  -------  -----------  ------  ----------  ---------
Trend          +1,519.2  +171.61     +1,285.3  +0.004       +1.87          ,
                 +16.9%   +33.5%       +16.7%   +0.1%       +1.0%          ,
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bond market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.

[2006-01-12]