ANALYSIS: In December of 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE grew 1.6 times mainly due to active trade in shares

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 12, 06/ - In December of 2005 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 682 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT60,736.3 m. or $453.8 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 6.1% of exchange turnover of the month (in November of 2005 - 4.7%). In comparison with November of 2005 volume of transactions grew in dollar expression by $171,395.8 th. (by KZT22,849.0 m.) or 1.61 times (1.60 times in terms of tenge). Relative to December of 2004 volume of transactions grew by $274,543.9 th. (KZT37,427.5 m.) or 2.5 times (2.6 times in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover on KASE in December was as follows: stake of purchase and sale sector was 92.9% of all made deals volume ($421,364.8 th.); the stake of primary offerings - 7.1% ($32,429.4 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in November of 2005: stake of purchase and sale sector was 88.3% of all made deals volume ($249,470.3 th.); the stake of primary offerings - 11.7% ($32,928.1 th.). SHARE MARKET Statistical characteristics of this segment and comparison with previous month is given in the table below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: --------- --------- Trend Indicator December November Dec. to Nov. ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ------------ Trade volume, th. USD 247,984.3 113,296.2 +118.9% Trade volume, m. KZT 33,194.9 15,196.6 +118.4% Number of deals 375 259 +44.8% Number of instruments involved in deals 42 36 +16.7% Stake of nego deals (number), % 45.1 67.2 -22.1 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 56.0 82.3 -26.3 pp Pension assets participation, % gross 6.7 5.8 +0.9 pp Number of exchange's members, made deals 36 41 -12.2% Market concentration, %* 48.0 54.8 -6.8 pp ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- *percentage from total share turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of shares, admitted to trading on KASE, is shown) Deals in shares on KASE were made in December at securities offering (within specialized trades - HSBKp1), as well as in purchase-sale sector of the secondary market. December's "top-5" by the volume of made transactions comprises: TMLZ (13.8% from share turnover), CCBN (13.3%), HSBKp1 (12.9%), KZCR (8.0%) and TEBNp (6.5%). Only CCBN preserved their positions in this rating in comparison with November. Last month the first 5 positions belonged to ASFI (25.6% from share turnover), BTAS (10.6%), NFBN (9.4%), UTMK (9.2%) and CCBN (7.5% from the whole share market). By number of conducted deals - indicator, most correctly reflecting the degree of shares liquidity on KASE - in December leaders were CCBN (37 deals). They were followed by TEBNp (34), CSBN (20), KZTK (19). The fifth place belonged to TEBN, VTZL and BTAS (18). In November the list comprised CCBN (25), TEBNp (23), ASFI (22), ORDB (18) and CCBNp (16). Out of 42 shares, involved in deals of December, weighted average daily prices of 17 shares grew, prices of 12 shares fell, prices of 9 shares remained unchanged (there was nothing to compare prices of four new instruments with). Leader of growth was ATFB (4.1 times). The second place belongs to CSBN, their weighted average rate grew 2.9 times. BTASp grew 2.8 times. Besides, following securities' rates also grew considerably (over 30%) in December: KZTK, CCBNp, ALKS, ASBN and AMGZp. HSBK fell most deeply (by 22.2%) as well as ZERD (by 20.8%). KASE_Shares index by December 30 reached its historic maximum at 684.23, that is explained by growth of the rates of most capitalized companies' shares. CORPORATE BOND MARKET Statistical characteristics of this segment and comparison with previous month is given in the table below. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: --------- --------- Trend Indicator December November Dec. to Nov. ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ------------ Trade volume, th. USD 205,810.0 169,102.2 +21.7% Trade volume, m. KZT 27,541.4 22,690.7 +21.4% Number of deals 307 285 +7.7% Number of instruments involved in deals 75 62 +21.0% Stake of nego deals (number), % 33.9 34.7 -0.8 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 23.5 28.2 -4.7 pp Pension assets participation, % gross 25.5 18.4 +7.1 pp Number of exchange's members, made deals 36 41 -12.2% Market concentration, %* 42.6 46.6 -4.0 pp ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- *percentage from total bond turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of bonds, admitted to trading on KASE, is shown) December deals in corporate bonds on KASE were concluded at securities offering (within specialized trades - KZIKb12), as well as in purchase and sale sector of the secondary market. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as on the end of analyzed month (i.e. 7 securities, which were ASFIb7, ALKSb2, BTAIb8, KKAGb1, KATRb1, ASFIb5 and VTBNb3), formed 42.6% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds. By the number of made deals December's absolute leader was ASFIb7 (43 deals). They followed by VTBNb3 (28), ALKSb2 (15), KATRb1 and NRBNb4 (10), and the fifth place belonged to KKAGb1, CCBNb10, KZASb2 and BTASb4 (8). Relative to November ALKSb2 and KATRb1 preserved leading positions in the rating. Out of 75 bonds involved into deals of December weighted average dirty prices of 43 grew, prices of 28 ones fell, there was nothing to compare prices of 4 instruments with. TEBNb4 grew most highly (by 32.9%), KZIKb3 fell most deeply (by 8.2%). Weighted average daily prices of 6 securities grew by 5% and more, whereas prices of two bonds fell considerably. 28 securities' yields to maturity for a buyer grew, yields of 43 instruments fell. Nevertheless, KASE_BY index remained almost on the same level (table below). This occurred because as a result of rather high volatility the index grew on December 30 to 7.19% APR from 7.12% Apr on November 29. KASE_BY by the end of the second ten-day period of December stopped moving down within the channel, formed in the middle of November, and fluctuates at 7.13% APR. Below is statistical and reference information, characterizing CS market on KASE in December of 2005. Change of KASE's securities lists in December of 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: ------------- ------------- ------------- Category of admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 51 +2 138 +9 61 +5 B 39 +3 8 +2 35 +4 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 90 +5 146 +11 94 +9 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 8 0 0 0 8 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 98 +5 146 +11 99 +8 -------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Summary data by the results of trades in CS on KASE in December of 2005 (purchase and sale, excluding deals in SBS, but including primary offerings) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- --------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TMLZ Temirleasing JSC 34,218.0 4,579.6 13 7.54 - CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 32,926.8 4,414.0 37 7.25 0 HSBKp1 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 32,049.4 4,285.8 5 7.06 +2.44 KZCR TNC Kazchrome JSC 19,827.2 2,656.9 5 4.37 0 ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 16,339.0 2,189.3 43 3.60 -3.65 TEBNp Temirbank JSC 16,187.1 2,163.7 34 3.57 -1.61 ALKSb2 ALMATY KUS JSC 16,125.5 2,154.2 15 3.55 -2.07 BTAIb8 BTA Ipoteka JSC 14,980.2 2,004.6 7 3.30 +13.00 KZTC KazTransCom JSC 12,904.1 1,728.9 4 2.84 - KKAGb1 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 11,984.8 1,604.5 8 2.64 +0.17 KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ LLP 10,862.0 1,455.9 10 2.39 -1.94 TEBN Temirbank JSC 10,329.0 1,381.7 18 2.28 -1.23 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 9,699.8 1,296.3 17 2.14 +6.67 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 9,435.5 1,265.3 4 2.08 +1.27 CCBNp Bank CenterCredit JSC 8,317.8 1,114.8 10 1.83 +34.02 VTBNb3 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 7,933.9 1,061.5 28 1.75 -3.10 TEBNb6 Temirbank JSC 7,819.4 1,046.0 2 1.72 - ALKZ Aluminium of Kazakhstan JSC 7,662.6 1,027.0 5 1.69 0 HSBKb8 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 7,124.4 953.0 1 1.57 +0.81 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 7,041.7 942.4 7 1.55 -8.20 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 6,859.3 918.0 10 1.51 -2.11 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 6,849.6 916.9 9 1.51 -1.20 ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 6,841.6 914.4 6 1.51 0 NRBNb3 Nurbank JSC 6,032.1 806.8 7 1.33 -2.45 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 5,717.8 764.3 4 1.26 -3.54 NFBN NEFTEBANK JSC 5,584.9 748.4 12 1.23 0 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 5,298.5 709.1 5 1.17 -0.32 VITAb4 VITA JSC 4,939.1 660.5 6 1.09 +2.34 KZCRp TNC Kazchrome JSC 4,905.1 657.2 3 1.08 0 CCBNb10 Bank CenterCredit JSC 4,740.0 635.4 8 1.04 +0.31 PDES PAVLODARENEROSERVIE JSC 4,719.5 631.5 12 1.04 - TEBNb4 Temirbank JSC 3,643.6 487.4 2 0.80 +32.85 BTAIb4 BTA Ipoteka JSC 3,515.5 469.9 4 0.77 +0.78 ALKZp Aluminium of Kazakhstan JSC 3,441.4 461.1 3 0.76 0 BTAIb7 BTA Ipoteka JSC 3,409.1 455.1 3 0.75 +0.66 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 3,310.4 442.0 19 0.73 +69.86 GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 3,289.3 439.6 2 0.72 +0.63 ORNK Ornek XXI JSC 3,236.6 433.5 4 0.71 -3.85 TXBNb3 TEXAKABANK JSC 3,175.4 425.3 6 0.70 -0.81 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 3,154.2 422.9 2 0.69 +2.25 KZAPb1 NAC Kazatomprom JSC 3,142.2 420.3 1 0.69 +3.14 BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 3,006.3 401.9 2 0.66 +2.28 AZNO Aktyubinsk oil equipment plant JSC 2,994.3 400.0 2 0.66 0 ALKS ALMATY KUS JSC 2,947.4 394.5 6 0.65 +50.00 VTZL Kazyuvelirprom JSC 2,525.9 337.9 18 0.56 0 BTAIb6 BTA Ipoteka JSC 2,348.3 313.8 4 0.52 -3.43 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 2,310.4 308.9 12 0.51 +4.29 HSBKb10 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 2,270.2 303.5 2 0.50 +1.13 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 2,252.8 300.8 3 0.50 +1.79 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 2,194.8 293.7 3 0.48 -0.21 HSBKb9 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 2,130.0 285.3 6 0.47 +1.02 NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 2,007.6 268.4 10 0.44 -2.87 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,969.1 263.4 18 0.43 +11.11 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 1,786.2 238.9 1 0.39 -0.32 CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,658.6 222.4 7 0.37 +10.86 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 1,644.7 219.8 2 0.36 +5.45 VTBNb4 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,642.3 219.3 1 0.36 +0.03 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,554.1 208.5 2 0.34 -4.85 ZERD Zerde JSC 1,552.2 207.7 10 0.34 -20.79 BTAIb5 BTA Ipoteka JSC 1,538.5 206.4 3 0.34 -0.49 CCBNb8 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,533.9 205.6 1 0.34 +1.23 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,300.2 173.8 5 0.29 +3.77 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,276.2 170.7 1 0.28 -0.25 KRZHb1 Karagandy Zharyk LLP 1,210.5 161.9 3 0.27 - KKGBb3 Kazkommertsbank JSC 1,165.1 155.8 1 0.26 +1.44 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,164.6 155.6 3 0.26 +0.94 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,145.8 153.3 2 0.25 +0.50 TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 1,119.3 149.9 7 0.25 +0.19 VTBNb1 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,031.9 138.0 3 0.23 +1.30 NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 915.6 122.4 1 0.20 -7.43 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 834.5 111.6 10 0.18 -1.33 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 830.4 110.9 2 0.18 +2.43 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 807.5 108.2 8 0.18 -1.11 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 771.7 103.4 1 0.17 -0.75 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 703.0 94.0 2 0.15 +0.64 DNBN DANABANK JSC 657.0 88.1 2 0.14 +3.03 MREKb2 Mangistau distributing electricity network company JSC 577.1 77.1 1 0.13 +1.45 VTBNb2 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 483.7 64.7 1 0.11 -2.28 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 436.6 58.5 8 0.10 +4.02 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 394.0 52.7 3 0.09 -1.69 MMGZp Mangistaumunaygas JSC 381.5 51.0 1 0.08 +27.27 KZIKb12 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 380.0 50.8 1 0.08 - HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 369.3 49.3 4 0.08 +0.69 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 356.5 47.8 1 0.08 -0.20 KZIKb2 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 354.2 47.4 2 0.08 -4.85 HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 341.7 45.7 14 0.08 -22.22 ZIG_b1 Zangar Invest Group JSC 319.7 42.8 1 0.07 - BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 288.7 38.6 1 0.06 -3.68 BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 278.6 37.3 4 0.06 +0.28 KZTCb1 KazTransCom JSC 230.5 30.8 1 0.05 -2.17 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 220.6 29.5 2 0.05 +4.69 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 201.1 26.8 1 0.04 +5.22 CSBNb2 BANK CASPIAN JSC 200.1 26.8 1 0.04 -2.94 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 186.6 24.9 20 0.04 +188.95 KZNHb2 Kazneftekhim JSC 186.3 25.0 2 0.04 +2.07 KZALb1 Mining-metallurgical concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 154.5 20.7 1 0.03 -0.95 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 121.7 16.3 1 0.03 +0.79 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 96.2 12.9 1 0.02 +0.22 CHFMb1 Chimfarm JSC 95.4 12.7 1 0.02 +3.51 AMGZp CNPC - Aktobemunayas JSC 81.2 10.9 2 0.02 +72.62 BTAIb3 BTA Ipoteka JSC 80.6 10.8 1 0.02 -3.66 PRIN Premier StrakhovaniyeJSC 74.6 10.0 1 0.02 - AMGZ CNPC - Aktobemunayas JSC 73.5 9.8 10 0.02 +6.38 ATFB ATFBank JSC 63.8 8.5 5 0.01 +307.98 CCBNb5 Bank CenterCredit JSC 52.9 7.1 1 0.01 -1.24 ASBN Alliance Bank JSC 52.1 7.0 4 0.01 +36.00 ASBNb4 Alliance Bank JSC 45.1 6.0 1 0.01 +2.94 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 43.9 5.9 1 0.01 +0.21 KZIKb13 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 42.8 5.7 4 0.01 +0.24 CCBNb7 Bank CenterCredit JSC 36.7 4.9 1 0.01 +1.76 BTAIb2 BTA Ipoteka JSC 31.7 4.2 1 0.01 +5.75 ASBNp1 Alliance Bank JSC 30.2 4.1 1 0.01 +19.96 KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC 24.9 3.3 6 0.01 -7.31 ROSA ROSA JSC 12.5 1.7 2 0.003 -0.66 KZTOe1 KazTransOil JSC 10.7 1.4 1 0.002 +2.40 BTASp Bank TuranAlem JSC 7.3 1.0 1 0.002 +179.89 HRLT CHARALTYN JS 1.1 0.2 1 <0.001 -0.60 -------- --------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 117 453,794.3 60,736.3 682 100.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond; "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the ordinal number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in analyzed period. Main indicators of the exchange's CS market in December of 2005 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bond Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD ---------- ----------- ------- ----------- ------ ---------- --------- Nov 30, 05 9,002.0 512.63 7,707.0 7.18 185.32 15,532.3 Dec 1, 05 9,162.5 511.65 7,712.6 7.20 185.33 39,420.0 Dec 2, 05 9,178.1 512.67 7,716.2 7.15 186.29 2,568.1 Dec 5, 05 8,879.5 535.18 7,712.9 7.18 185.66 3,993.8 Dec 6, 05 9,304.5 506.94 7,709.8 7.14 186.07 38,842.1 Dec 7, 05 9,465.8 511.91 7,721.6 7.17 185.93 2,276.5 Dec 8, 05 9,266.9 575.90 7,716.8 7.15 185.99 10,334.5 Dec 9, 05 9,942.4 545.69 7,723.4 7.15 186.09 13,638.5 Dec 12, 05 10,057.4 551.77 7,735.9 7.16 186.31 9,808.7 Dec 13, 05 9,941.8 580.68 7,730.5 7.16 186.29 3,004.1 Dec 14, 05 10,073.9 596.19 7,733.4 7.14 186.48 9,712.2 Dec 15, 05 9,979.7 602.16 7,735.5 7.13 186.52 20,293.0 Dec 20, 05 9,932.0 603.44 7,734.6 7.09 187.01 28,318.0 Dec 21, 05 10,235.5 622.05 7,737.8 7.15 186.67 12,830.5 Dec 22, 05 10,045.6 631.29 7,740.3 7.10 187.06 10,302.9 Dec 23, 05 9,688.9 649.83 8,457.3 7.14 186.88 24,715.4 Dec 26, 05 10,792.9 674.22 8,468.5 7.14 186.94 29,684.8 Dec 27, 05 10,793.6 677.24 8,572.9 7.11 187.15 56,452.7 Dec 28, 05 10,878.1 669.11 8,777.1 7.14 187.01 25,955.3 Dec 29, 05 10,893.3 683.91 8,826.5 7.12 187.32 62,066.9 Dec 30, 05 10,521.2 684.23 8,992.3 7.19 187.19 49,576.0 ---------- ----------- ------- ----------- ------ ---------- --------- Trend +1,519.2 +171.61 +1,285.3 +0.004 +1.87 , +16.9% +33.5% +16.7% +0.1% +1.0% , ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bond market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2006-01-12]