ANALYSIS: In November of 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE grew by 15.2% to $282.4 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 8, 05/ - In November of 2005 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 544 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT37,887.3 m. or $282.4 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 4.7% of exchange turnover of the month (in October of 2005 - 3.8%). In comparison with October of 2005 volume of transactions grew in dollar expression by $37,300.0 th. (by KZT5,082.3 m.) or by 15.2% (by 15.5% in terms of tenge). Relative to November of 2004 volume of transactions grew by $156,533.9 th. (KZT21,451.8 m.) or 2.2 times (2.3% in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover on KASE in November was as follows: stake of purchase and sale sector was 88.3% of all made deals volume ($249,470.3 th.); the stake of primary offerings - 11.7% ($32,928.1 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in October of 2005: stake of purchase and sale sector was 98.3% of all made deals volume ($241,012.1 th.); the stake of primary offerings - 1.7% ($4,086.4 th.). SHARE MARKET In November this sector of CS exchange market was characterized by growth of turnover 1.9 times relative to October or by $52.7 m. to the equivalent of $113.3 m. Number of shares, involved in deals of the month, grew from 30 in October to 36 in November, and number of deals - from 152 to 259. In the analyzed month 67.2% of deals in shares in quantitative expression and 82.3% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of October - 54.6% and 66.3%. Average daily turnover of shares on KASE in November was $5,149.8 th. (KZT690.8 m.), including open market transactions (market deals) - $913.2 th. (KZT122.5 m.), on direct deals - $4,236.6 th. (KZT568.2 m.). All November deals without exception were made in shares in purchase and sale sector of KASE's secondary market. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of November of 2005 (i.e. 4 shares, which were ASFI, BTAS, NFBN and UTMK), formed 54.8% of exchange's share turnover. Similar indicator of the market's concentration in October - 72.5%, in September - 71.5% (including offerings). November's "top-5" by the volume of made transactions comprised: ASFI (25.6% of share turnover), BTAS (10.6%), NFBN (9.4%), UTMK (9.2%) and CCBN (7.5%). Only CCBN has remained in the list relative to October. Last month the first 5 positions belonged to KKGBp (38.5% of share turnover), TEBNp (12.7%), CCBN (11.8%), TEBN (9.5%) and ORDB (5.5%). By number of conducted deals - indicator, most correctly reflecting the degree of shares liquidity on KASE - in November leaders were CCBN (25 deals). After them TEBNp (23), ASFI (22), ORDB (18) and CCBNp (16). In October the list comprised TEBNp (23 deals). They were followed by AMGZ (19), KKGBp (16), CCBN (16) and TEBN (11). Out of 30 shares, involved in deals of November, weighted average daily prices of 22 shares grew, prices of 9 shares fell, prices of 5 shares remained unchanged. Leader of growth was HSBK (5.2 times). The second place belongs to MMGZp, their weighted average rate grew 3.4 times. Besides, following securities' rates also grew considerably (over 30%) in November: RAHT, CSBNp, CCBN, VTBN, CSBN, BTAS, ORDB, KKGB, ORNK. However, in most cases the matter concerns direct deals. ALKZ fell most deeply (4.2 times, direct deals only) as well as ASFI (by 14.4%). Due to the described rate dynamics KASE_Shares index went upward in November, demonstrating the increased volatility. Value of the index varied in the analyzed month from 433.71 to the historic maximum - 512.63. CORPORATE BOND MARKET Relative to October of 2005 volume of deals fell by 8.3% (by $15,350.8 th.) to $169.1 m. Range of securities involved in deals narrowed to 62 (in October - 70), and number of deals fell from 363 to 285. The stake of direct deals was 34.7% of transactions in quantitative expression and 28.2% in volumetric. Corresponding figures of October - 16.3% and 15.3%. Average daily turnover of shares on KASE in November was $7,686.5 th. (KZT1,031.4 m.), including open market transactions (market deals, including offerings) - $5,521.0 th. (KZT741.1 m.), on direct deals - $2,165.4 th. (KZT290.3 m.). November deals in corporate bonds on KASE were concluded at securities offering (within specialized trades on HSBKb10 and KZIKb13), as well as in purchase and sale sector of secondary market. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as on the end of analyzed month (i.e. 6 securities, which were KZIKb13, CCBNb10, KATRb1, BTASb4 and KKGBb2), formed 46.6% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds. Similar indicator of market's concentration in October was 38.4%, in September - 44.8%. In November KZIKb13 (20 deals, mainly offering) were absolute leader. They were followed by ALKSb2 (18), BTAIb4 (15), KATRb1 (14) and HSBKb2 (13). No instrument has remained among leaders relative to October. Out of 62 bonds involved into deals of November weighted average dirty prices of 37 grew, prices of 22 ones fell, there was nothing to compare prices of 3 instruments with. ALKSb2 grew most highly (by 5% and more), prices of three instruments fell considerably. 36 securities' yields to maturity for a buyer grew, yields of 23 instruments fell. KASE_BY did not change much (see the table). After some compensating movement upward, starting from the middle of November KASE_BY formed a new descending trend, which is relevant at present. Change of KASE's securities lists in November of 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 49 +1 129 +1 56 +1 B 36 -2 6 +1 31 -2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 85 -1 135 +2 85 -1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 8 0 0 0 8 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 93 -1 135 +2 91 -1 -------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable CS on KASE in November of 2005 (purchase and sale, excluding deals in SBS, but including primary offerings) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ---------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- KZIKb13 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 33,321.4 4,477.3 20 11.80 - ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 29,045.4 3,894.9 22 10.29 -14.43 CCBNb10 Bank CenterCredit JSC 13,001.9 1,747.0 6 4.60 +0.39 KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ LLP 12,998.8 1,743.4 14 4.60 -4.55 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 11,992.1 1,609.3 10 4.25 +38.46 NFBN NEFTEBANK JSC 10,597.7 1,421.8 14 3.75 -0.06 UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium- magnesium combine JSC 10,401.5 1,394.6 4 3.68 -1.18 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 10,095.7 1,353.0 12 3.57 -4.54 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 9,434.2 1,268.1 1 3.34 -7.42 CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 8,532.0 1,143.5 25 3.02 +46.80 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 7,662.5 1,026.0 2 2.71 -2.40 BTAIb8 BTA Ipoteka JSC 7,621.1 1,024.4 5 2.70 -7.98 CCBNp Bank CenterCredit JSC 6,970.7 934.5 16 2.47 -1.11 KZNHb2 Kazneftehim JSC 6,368.7 852.6 3 2.26 +0.39 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 6,101.8 818.7 9 2.16 +2.16 TEBNp Temirbank JSC 5,431.3 729.5 23 1.92 -9.45 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 4,747.1 636.1 4 1.68 -3.34 BTAIb5 BTA Ipoteka JSC 4,715.9 632.4 11 1.67 +0.54 TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 4,624.6 619.2 5 1.64 +0.64 BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 4,568.2 612.4 3 1.62 +1.77 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 3,666.1 491.3 10 1.30 +0.30 TEBN Temirbank JSC 3,456.7 463.7 12 1.22 -2.76 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 3,396.7 455.5 3 1.20 +0.70 ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 3,386.8 454.1 11 1.20 +1.46 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunay JSC 3,166.5 424.8 5 1.12 +1.30 BTAIb4 BTA Ipoteka JSC 3,105.5 416.9 15 1.10 -2.33 ALKSb2 ALMATY KUS JSC 3,078.6 412.7 18 1.09 +5.39 ATFB ATFBank JSC 2,973.3 399.5 1 1.05 +10.30 VITAb4 VITA JSC 2,687.9 360.4 6 0.95 -1.47 ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 2,483.2 333.1 18 0.88 +35.00 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 2,471.0 332.1 8 0.87 +2.82 KZCR TNC Kazchrome JSC 2,440.1 327.5 1 0.86 0 CCBNb9 Bank CenterCredit JSC 2,391.0 320.5 2 0.85 +0.72 EUBNb1 Eurasian bank JSC 2,197.6 294.6 3 0.78 +1.41 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 2,177.2 292.5 4 0.77 +0.61 HSBKb7 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,967.6 264.1 4 0.70 +1.52 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 1,949.4 261.3 14 0.69 +40.68 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,904.1 255.5 7 0.67 +44.26 ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,866.5 250.0 3 0.66 +7.69 ALKZ Aluminium of Kazakhstan JSC 1,843.3 247.4 3 0.65 -76.13 CCBNb7 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,685.6 225.8 1 0.60 -4.10 NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 1,673.7 224.7 2 0.59 +4.05 CCBNb5 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,653.7 221.7 1 0.59 +2.49 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 1,473.7 197.5 11 0.52 +12.50 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 1,469.1 197.1 4 0.52 -1.83 VTBNb3 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,435.4 192.6 5 0.51 -1.73 ALKS ALMATY KUS JSC 986.0 132.3 4 0.35 0 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 971.6 130.2 2 0.34 -1.94 HSBKb5 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 740.1 99.4 2 0.26 +0.70 BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 679.2 91.1 4 0.24 -1.10 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 588.3 78.9 1 0.21 +3.45 GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 582.9 78.2 2 0.21 +1.04 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 582.0 78.1 1 0.21 +0.76 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 546.0 73.2 13 0.19 -3.21 BTAIb6 BTA Ipoteka JSC 484.9 65.0 3 0.17 +0.06 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 472.8 63.4 7 0.17 +1.60 ROSA ROSA JSC 434.7 58.3 3 0.15 +5.62 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 384.2 51.4 9 0.14 -0.15 RAHT Rakhat JSC 383.6 51.6 1 0.14 +106.00 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 376.9 50.6 1 0.13 -4.85 NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 335.3 45.0 1 0.12 +0.17 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 295.4 39.6 2 0.10 +5.15 ORNK Ornek XXI JSC 290.0 38.8 4 0.10 +30.00 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 289.3 38.8 7 0.10 +19.05 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 261.3 35.0 1 0.09 -5.23 BTAIb7 BTA Ipoteka JSC 260.9 35.0 3 0.09 +0.26 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 246.7 33.1 2 0.09 +0.76 PKKRe1 PetroKazakhstan Finance B.V. 227.5 30.5 2 0.08 +2.99 KZTCb1 KazTransCom JSC 212.9 28.5 2 0.08 -0.30 KZIKb7 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 157.4 21.1 2 0.06 -0.55 ZERD Zerde JSC 155.7 20.8 6 0.06 -0.77 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 147.9 19.8 4 0.05 -4.32 VTZL Kazyuvelirprom JSC 133.9 17.9 6 0.05 0 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 131.9 17.7 1 0.05 +0.21 ALKZp Aluminium of Kazakhstan JSC 114.6 15.4 1 0.04 0 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 82.3 11.0 1 0.03 +1.80 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 81.7 11.0 3 0.03 +0.57 MMGZp Mangistaumunaygas JSC 72.7 9.8 3 0.03 +240.95 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 72.2 9.7 1 0.03 -3.92 RGBRb3 RG Brands JS 72.2 9.7 1 0.03 +0.28 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 42.9 5.8 2 0.02 -1.29 ASBNb5 Alliance Bank JSC 37.7 5.1 1 0.01 - KZCRp TNC Kazchrome JSC 33.7 4.5 5 0.01 0 BTAIb3 BTA Ipoteka JSC 31.7 4.2 2 0.01 +2.84 HSBKb10 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 28.4 3.8 1 0.01 - HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 25.8 3.5 5 0.01 +422.67 KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC 17.3 2.3 4 0.01 +35.00 CSBNb5 BANK CASPIAN JSC 16.3 2.2 1 0.01 +2.71 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 14.5 2.0 6 0.01 +0.17 ASBN Alliance Bank JSC 12.3 1.7 1 0.004 +14.32 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 10.1 1.3 7 0.004 +0.08 KZALb1 Mining-smelting cncern Kazakhaltyn JSC 8.9 1.2 6 0.003 +0.44 ASFIb6 Astana-Finance JSC 7.6 1.0 1 0.003 +0.68 TSBNp Tsesnabank JSC 7.4 1.0 1 0.003 +25.00 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARM OJSC 5.9 0.8 3 0.002 +1.69 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 5.3 0.7 1 0.002 -1.27 CSBNp BANK CASPIAN JSC 3.8 0.5 9 0.001 +75.44 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 1.0 0.1 1 <0.001 +20.07 -------- ---------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 98 282,398.5 37,887.3 544 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond; "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the ordinal number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in analyzed period. Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in November of 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bond Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD ---------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Oct 31, 05 7,095.2 435.70 7,625.7 7.20 183.89 14,313.1 Nov 1, 05 7,115.9 437.43 7,632.2 7.22 183.86 9,890.6 Nov 2, 05 7,141.1 437.12 7,669.2 7.23 183.81 5,425.4 Nov 3, 05 7,167.1 437.13 7,667.5 7.16 184.42 2,472.4 Nov 4, 05 7,169.4 466.94 7,668.1 7.26 183.94 5,302.3 Nov 7, 05 7,158.8 433.71 7,664.0 7.28 183.81 21,084.3 Nov 8, 05 7,125.9 434.99 7,659.3 7.25 184.25 39,191.4 Nov 9, 05 7,126.1 438.73 7,656.6 7.24 184.39 29,924.8 Nov 10, 05 7,303.8 445.16 7,647.0 7.24 184.20 5,464.6 Nov 11, 05 7,128.6 445.91 7,649.3 7.24 184.32 14,173.0 Nov 14, 05 7,211.5 445.30 7,651.9 7.25 184.29 1,076.3 Nov 15, 05 7,278.5 447.95 7,704.4 7.26 184.30 5,845.0 Nov 16, 05 7,252.7 451.09 7,705.3 7.26 184.27 5,291.7 Nov 17, 05 7,119.8 449.65 7,705.0 7.25 184.34 31,675.7 Nov 18, 05 7,541.4 456.17 7,708.5 7.26 184.40 4,042.8 Nov 21, 05 7,612.7 492.83 7,707.6 7.22 184.69 7,689.0 Nov 22, 05 8,153.8 506.50 7,708.8 7.23 184.69 21,276.6 Nov 23, 05 7,810.6 496.94 7,710.5 7.20 185.06 2,664.2 Nov 24, 05 8,300.5 506.34 7,713.5 7.26 184.51 30,628.6 Nov 25, 05 8,302.2 505.58 7,712.2 7.19 185.08 1,602.1 Nov 28, 05 8,323.3 505.11 7,710.2 7.20 185.05 9,252.0 Nov 29, 05 8,885.1 509.51 7,709.9 7.20 185.17 12,893.4 Nov 30, 05 9,002.0 512.63 7,707.0 7.18 185.32 15,532.3 ---------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +1,906.8 +76.92 +81.3 -0.02 +1.43 , +26.9% +17.7% +1.1% -0.3% +0.8% , -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bond market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2005-12-08]