ANALYSIS: In October 2005 volume of transactions in foreign currency on KASE decreased by 22.0% to the equivalent of $905.2 m.

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 7, 05/ - In October 2005 volume of foreign currency transactions made on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) reached the equivalent of USD905.2 m. or KZT121,148.4 m. Relative to September 2005 the volume of transactions decreased by USD255.3 m. (KZT34,525.3 m.) or by 22.0% in terms of dollar and by 22.2% in terms of tenge. Relative to October 2004 trade volume decreased by 22.3% in terms of dollar and 21.7% in terms of tenge. The stake of this sector in stock exchange's turnover decreased from 19.6% in September to 13.9% in October 2005. Total of 3,979 deals (3,802) were made in October 2005 on KASE (here and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses), including: in US dollars on TOD terms - 3,722 (3,621), on TOM terms -225 (161), on SPOT terms - 26 (16); in euros - 0 (1), in Russian ruble - 6 (4). 99.97% of the whole concluded deals volume in October 2005 total turnover of exchange's currency market fell to the stake of deals in US dollar. In previous month the stake was 99.99%. On US dollars the volume of transactions on KASE in October 2005 reached $905.0 m. (KZT121.1 m.). To compare, in September 2005 this figure equaled to $1,160.4 m. (KZT155,663.3 m.), in October 2004 - $1,163.2 m. (KZT154,591.7 m.). In October 2005 tenge devaluated. The speed of this process calculated at exchange's weighted average rate of the main session is estimated by the trend of 3.34% APR (September 30, 05 = KZT133.83; October 31, 05 = KZT134.21). In September 2005 tenge was strengthening with the speed of 13.4% APR. Weighted average rate of U.S. dollar to tenge, calculated on deals of the main session in October 2005 is KZT133.84 per unit, on all exchange's deals - 133.83. For September these indicators were KZT134.21 and KZT134.14 per dollar. In euro deals in October 2005, as well as in September at KASE were not concluded. On Russian ruble the volume of transactions on KASE in October 2005 was RUB7,200 th. for a total of KZT33.8 m. (in September - RUB2,200 th. for KZT10.4 m.). Judging by change of weighted average exchange rate (September 30, 05 = 4.6850; October 31, 05 = 4.6820), in analyzed month tenge strengthened to ruble with average speed 0.75% APR. Contrary to expectations of KASE analysts, October at US dollar stock exchange market of Kazakhstan did not continue tendencies of the first autumn month. The market formed new subhorizontal channel of consolidation between 133.70 and 134.20. Taking into account September strengthening of tenge to dollar, this channel may be considered as correctional. Notable, that it was formed quite objectively. Participation of the National bank in its formation was minimum. The other circumstance is also interesting. Formation of channel was simultaneously with floatation in the world as minimum four issues of international bonds of Kazakhstan banks, this together with current attraction on syndicated loans practically have not affected dollar positions at KASE. Local market also ignored dynamics of world oil prices. In October it was identical to September. Oil prices gradually decreased, and speed of this decrease was nearly the same in compared months. As a main reason, not allowed tenge to continue strengthening to dollar in October, IRBIS specialists are inclined to call small (in comparison with forecasted) losses, which USA economy had in the result of anomaly weather conditions. In September influence of hurricanes was great. In October it practically was not felt. In any case, in dollar positions at the world market. At the same time, strategy of FRS of USA on increase of dollar investments attractiveness continued to bring its fruits. On the background of indecision of the National bank of Kazakhstan in the matter of rate increase growth of FRS of USA rates allowed to support investment potential of American currency. In Kazakhstan it resulted in additional demand for USD, precisely - in decrease of volume of its offer inside the country even in the period of payments by subjects of our market by the results of the third quarter. Needs in tenge, caused by these payments, in full volume were covered owing to repo market. Besides, it should be noted, that decrease of dollar offer volumes in internal market, to all appearances, positively affected transfer of currency earnings to the National fund. About such transfer - when exporters prefer not to sell currency earnings, but hold it at currency accounts in Kazakhstan banks - shortly said Chairman of the National Bank Anvar Saidenov at the end of September. Though mechanism of such transfers remained unclear. Under influence of the above Kazakhstan did not see in October forecasted by IRBIS specialists offer volume of American currency. On the contrary, leading USD sellers could periodically and rather successfully play for increase of dollar rate. However stubborn attempts to give the market marked trend was not observed from traders. Speculative constituent in behavior of banks was weak. As the National Bank had no necessity to participate in KASE trades with considerable volumes, stake of exchange turnover and turnover itself of USA dollar at KASE traditionally decreased. Owing to this October was not very active month at stock exchange of American currency this year. Prognosis for November does not look definite. To all appearances, activity of stock exchange dollar market will be at the same level, participants of the market do not forecast considerable rate fluctuations on the threshold of winter. [2005-11-07]