ANALYSIS: In October 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE decreased by 4.3% to $245.1 m.
/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 7, 05/ - In October 2005 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 515 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT32,805.0 m. or $245.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 3.8% of monthly exchange turnover (in September 2005 - 4.3%).
In comparison with September 2005 volume of transactions decreased in dollar expression by $11,035.2 th. (by KZT1,578.4 m.) or by 4.3% (by 4.6% in terms of tenge). Relative to October 2004 volume of transactions has increased by $85,932.9 th. (KZT11,600.8 m.) or by 1.5% (by 1.6% in terms of tenge).
Structure of CS turnover on KASE in October looked as follows: stake of purchase and sale sector was 98.3% of all made deals volume ($241,012.1 th.); the stake of primary floatations - 1.7% (($4,086.4 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in September 2005: stake of purchase and sale sector was 96.0% of all made deals volume ($245,995.9 th.); SBS sector - 7.8% ($26,382.6 th.); the stake of primary floatations - 4.0% ($10,137.7 th.).
SHARE MARKET
In October this sector of CS exchange market was characterized by drop of turnover relative to September by 27.8% or by $23.3 m. to the equivalent $60.6 m. Number of shares, involved in deals of the month, decreased from 31 in September to 30 in October, and number of deals - from 241 to 152.
In the analyzed month 54.6% of deals with shares in quantitative expression and 66.3% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of August - 38.2% and 35.3%.
Average daily turnover of shares at KASE in October was $3,032.3 th. (KZT405.9 m.), including open market operations (market deals) - $1,022.4 th. (KZT137.0 m.), on direct deals - $2,009.9 th. (KZT269.0 m.).
All October deals without exception were held with shares in purchase and sale sector of KASE's secondary market.
5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of October 2005 (i.e. 4 shares, which became KKGBp, TEBNp, CCBN and TEBN), formed 72.5% of exchange's turnover. Similar indicator of the market's concentration in September - 71.5% (including floatations), in August - 75.9% (including floatations).
October's "top-5" by the volume of made transactions comprised: KKGBp (38.5% from share turnover), TEBNp (12.7%), CCBN (11.8%), TEBN (9.5%) and ORDB (5.5%). TEBN, TEBNp and CCBN could keep their positions in the top relative to September. Last month the first 5 positions belonged to TEBNp (29.9% from share turnover), CCBN (21.5%), HSBKp1 (12.1%), TEBN (8.0%) and CHFM (6.2% from the whole share market).
On number of conducted deals - index, the most correctly reflecting the degree of shares liquidity at KASE - in October leaders were TEBNp (23 deals). They were followed by AMGZ (19), KKGBp (16), CCBN (16) and TEBN (11). In September the first 5 positions of this rating were represented by TEBNp (63), CCBN (54), TEBN (15), KKGBp (14) and BTAS (10).
From 30 shares, involved in deals of October, weighted average daily prices of fourteen shares grew, also fourteen fell, prices of one share remained unchanged. Leader of growth became KZCRp (2 times, only direct deals), leader of fall became RAHT (in 3.9 times, by open trades method).
KASE_Shares index in the beginning of October was characterized with increased volatility mainly owing to quotations dynamics of common shares of SNPC - Aktobemunaigas JSC (AMGZ). However the second half of the month was quite. Index stabilized at the mark 434. As a whole within a month KASE_Shares grew mainly at demand prices for common shares of KAZZINK JSC (KZZN), common shares of Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGB) and common shares of Kazakhtelecom JSC (KZTK).
CORPORATE BOND MARKET
Relative to September 2005 volume of deals increased by 7.2% (by $12,300.6 th.) to $184.5 m. Range of securities involved into deals expanded to 70 (in September - 61), and number of deals decreased from 460 to 363. The stake of direct deals was 16.3% of transactions in quantitative expression and 15.3% in volumetric. Corresponding figures of August - 30.0% and 21.1%.
Average daily turnover of shares at KASE in October was $9,217.7 th. (KZT1,233.7m.), including open market operations (market deals, including floatations) - $7,806.1 th. (KZT1,044.7 m.), on direct deals - $1,411.6 th. (KZT188.9 m.).
October deals with corporate bonds at KASE were concluded at floatation of securities (within subscription for euronotes CSBNe1 and ATFBe4), as well as in purchase and sale sector of secondary market.
5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as on the end of analyzed month (i.e. 6 securities, which became VTBNb3, KZIKb6, ATFBb5, CCBNb9, BTASb4 and TSBNb2), formed 38.4% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds. Similar indicator of market's concentration in September was 44.8%, in August - 63.0%. In September HSBKb3 (24 deals) were absolute leader. They were followed by BTASb4 (22), TXBNb2 (20), KZALb1 (20), and also VTBNb3 and CCBNb7 (19). BTASb4, TXBNb2, KZALb1 and HSBKb3 have kept leading positions relative to September.
Out of 70 bonds involved into deals of October 42 securities characterized by positive change of weighted average dirty prices, negative - 20, price of one debt instrument has not changed. There was nothing to compare prices of seven new bonds with. Leader of growth (by 5.4%), became KATRb1, fall (by 5.9%) - MREKb1. Weighted average daily dirty prices of one bonds grew by 5% and more, whereas two securities characterized by considerable decrease. On concluded deals yields of 39 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in October, decreased - 24.
Index KASE_BY grew in a month by 0.08 points. Positive dynamics of index mainly was supported by demand prices for eurobonds of Kazakhstan issuers.
Below is statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market on KASE in October 2005 is published.
Change of KASE's securities lists in October 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month)
--------------------------------------------------------
Shares: Bonds: Issuers:
Category of ------------- ------------- -------------
admission number trend number trend number trend
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 48 0 128 +6 55 +1
B 38 -1 5 0 33 -2
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 86 -1 133 +6 86 +1
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N 8 +2 0 0 8 +2
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
TOTAL 94 +1 133 +6 92 +1
--------------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category;
"A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.
Most tradable CS on KASE in October 2005 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary offerings)
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Volume of deals:
Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price
of name of th. m. ber of share, change,
security Issuer USD KZT deals % %
-------- --------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 23,356.8 3,126.0 16 9.53 -1.86
VTBNb3 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 15,704.5 2,103.3 19 6.41 +1.18
KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage
Company JSC 12,890.7 1,725.6 4 5.26 -0.57
ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 11,505.2 1,539.9 15 4.69 -0.37
CCBNb9 Bank CenterCredit JSC 11,502.6 1,539.3 4 4.69 +0.41
BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 9,986.2 1,335.4 22 4.07 +1.30
TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 9,279.2 1,241.0 4 3.79 -2.49
CCBNb7 Bank CenterCredit JSC 9,101.3 1,219.9 19 3.71 +1.62
BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 8,231.5 1,101.5 1 3.36 -0.70
TEBNp Temirbank JSC 7,721.1 1,033.1 23 3.15 +20.37
CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 7,556.8 1,010.0 10 3.08 +4.36
BTAIb6 BTA Ipoteka JSC 7,312.5 979.3 8 2.98 +0.55
CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 7,131.1 954.8 16 2.91 +2.27
KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage
Company JSC 5,852.4 783.0 4 2.39 -0.32
TEBN Temirbank JSC 5,756.0 770.7 11 2.35 -0.91
MREKb2 Mangistau distribution main
company JSC
5,657.0 756.8 6 2.31 X
CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 4,148.0 555.6 3 1.69 +0.91
BTAIb7 BTA Ipoteka JSC 4,118.2 551.9 2 1.68 +2.38
HSBKb3 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 4,089.5 547.7 24 1.67 +0.58
CSBNe1 BANK CASPIAN JSC 3,986.9 533.8 1 1.63 X
CCBNb10 Bank CenterCredit JSC 3,823.8 512.4 4 1.56 X
HSBKb9 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 3,623.2 484.4 6 1.48 +2.54
ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 3,343.8 448.0 1 1.36 +10.82
NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 3,233.7 432.7 1 1.32 +4.14
ASFIb6 Astana-Finance JSC 3,012.0 402.6 4 1.23 -0.35
ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 2,531.3 338.8 8 1.03 -2.07
NFBN NEFTEBANK JSC 2,438.8 327.3 5 1.00 +0.06
KKGBb5 Kazkommertsbank JSC 2,301.5 308.4 2 0.94 X
HSBKb5 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 2,278.4 305.1 1 0.93 +1.98
KZIKb7 Kazakhstan Mortgage
Company JSC 2,188.0 292.5 1 0.89 +1.03
BTAIb8 BTA Ipoteka JSC 2,127.6 284.5 2 0.87 -7.22
ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 1,882.2 251.6 3 0.77 -1.00
KZTCb1 KazTransCom JSC 1,842.2 246.4 5 0.75 +0.69
ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 1,738.8 232.4 5 0.71 +0.78
ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 1,701.2 228.1 6 0.69 +0.89
VTBNb4 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,679.6 224.6 4 0.69 +2.42
NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 1,493.0 199.8 1 0.61 +0.74
AZNO Aktubinsk plant
of oil equipment JSC 1,490.0 200.0 1 0.61 X
TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 1,478.5 197.9 4 0.60 +0.65
KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 1,380.6 184.5 1 0.56 +4.35
ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,377.2 184.0 2 0.56 +8.33
HSBKb7 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,347.1 180.1 1 0.55 -2.97
CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 1,329.4 177.7 3 0.54 -4.23
HSBKb Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,325.9 177.2 2 0.54 +1.83
BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,274.8 170.5 1 0.52 -3.32
CCBNb1 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,270.3 169.8 4 0.52 +1.44
TXBNb3 TEXAKABANK JSC 1,166.3 156.2 2 0.48 +1.02
KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ LLP 1,067.3 142.8 15 0.44 +5.41
ALKZ Aluminum of Kazakhstan JSC 1,023.2 137.1 1 0.42 +30.93
ALKS ALMATY KUS JSC 981.0 131.4 1 0.40 -20.00
TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 872.5 116.6 20 0.36 +1.42
ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 866.0 115.8 2 0.35 +2.22
CCBNp Bank CenterCredit JSC 861.5 115.3 2 0.35 +1.38
ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 750.2 100.6 3 0.31 -0.33
CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 748.6 100.0 1 0.31 +0.09
KZASb2 KOSTANAY
MINERALS JSC 634.4 84.9 6 0.26 +0.41
GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 626.6 84.0 3 0.26 -3.65
ATFBp ATFBank JSC 578.4 77.5 1 0.24 0
KZIKb1 Kazakhstan Mortgage
Company JSC 568.1 75.9 3 0.23 +1.83
UKPFb1 Ust-Kamenogorsk
Poultry farm JSC 532.0 71.2 9 0.22 +1.11
ATFBb2 ATFBank JSC 521.0 69.6 7 0.21 +1.06
VTBNb2 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 495.2 66.2 1 0.20 0
KZALb1 Mining-smelting
concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 484.2 64.9 20 0.20 +0.12
HSBKb8 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 409.8 54.9 2 0.17 -2.29
HSBKb2 Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 404.5 54.1 4 0.17 +0.11
KKGBb4 Kazkommertsbank JSC 378.7 50.7 2 0.15 X
ORNK Ornek XXI JSC 271.9 36.4 4 0.11 -13.04
AMGZp CNPC Aktobemunaigas JSC 259.4 34.8 2 0.11 +47.43
BTAIb4 BTA Ipoteka JSC 223.7 29.9 2 0.09 +0.88
VTZL Kazyuvelirprom JSC 218.2 29.2 3 0.09 -20.00
VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 197.3 26.4 1 0.08 -28.99
HSBK Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan JSC 174.6 23.4 3 0.07 -35.48
ALKSb2 ALMATY KUS JSC 173.0 23.1 11 0.07 -0.28
NRBNb3 Nurbank JSC 161.3 21.6 1 0.07 +1.18
BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 122.2 16.4 1 0.05 -1.11
VTZLb1 Kazyuvelirprom JSC 121.0 16.2 2 0.05 +0.54
AMGZ CNPC Aktobemunaigas JSC 118.6 15.9 19 0.05 +6.82
KZNHb2 Kazneftechim JSC 101.5 13.6 3 0.04 +0.19
ATFBe4 ATFBank JSC 99.5 13.3 1 0.04 X
MREKb1 Mangistau distribution main
company JSC
62.0 8.3 1 0.03 -5.92
KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 61.6 8.2 7 0.03 +8.96
CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 55.6 7.4 1 0.02 +0.70
CCBNb5 Bank CenterCredit JSC 52.4 7.0 1 0.02 -2.62
CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 41.0 5.5 3 0.02 +0.53
KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 39.4 5.3 4 0.02 -2.86
UKTCb1 AES Ust-Kamenogorsk HS JSC
38.6 5.2 4 0.02 -5.33
RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 26.9 3.6 2 0.01 +2.03
KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 24.2 3.2 16 0.01 -3.42
TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 14.8 2.0 2 0.01 +4.33
VITAb4 VITA JSC 14.6 1.9 1 0.01 X
CSBNb2 BANK CASPIAN JSC 14.2 1.9 1 0.01 +0.24
KZZN KAZZINC JSC 13.5 1.8 1 0.01 +3.08
KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC 9.0 1.2 4 0.004 +65.75
KKAGb1 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 7.6 1.0 1 0.003 -1.00
ZERD Zerde JSC 5.0 0.7 1 0.002 -23.53
ALKZp Aluminum of Kazakhstan JSC 3.5 0.5 6 0.001 +25.00
KZCRp TNC Kazchrome JSC 1.8 0.2 7 0.001 +100.00
RAHT Rakhat JSC 1.0 0.1 2 <0.001 -74.16
BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 0.2 0.03 1 <0.001 -1.62
UTMKp Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
magnesium combine JSC 0.1 0.02 1 <0.001 -31.82
-------- --------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL 100 245,098.4 32,805.0 515 100.0
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Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals
expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the
following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond; "e" - eurobond;
the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the ordinal number of the bond
issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X"
- change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation at
KASE in analyzed period.
Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in October 2005
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Capitaliza- Capitaliza-
tion tion Bond value Volume of
of the of the index, purchase
share bond Bonds including and sale
market, Share market, yield accum deals,
Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD
-------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- ---------
30.09.05 7,214.7 411.87 7,193.8 7.13 182.96 18,837.5
03.10.05 7,199.8 408.96 7,195.1 7.15 183.11 19,860.9
04.10.05 7,201.6 415.40 7,194.9 7.15 183.10 21,762.0
05.10.05 7,192.5 413.61 7,192.9 7.13 183.29 18,515.6
06.10.05 7,198.6 414.83 7,194.4 7.14 183.30 9,122.4
07.10.05 7,315.2 476.93 7,193.8 7.17 183.76 1,056.4
10.10.05 7,599.2 423.78 7,194.9 7.16 183.38 8,971.8
11.10.05 7,608.1 423.96 7,193.3 7.16 183.45 1,956.2
12.10.05 7,592.1 429.58 7,193.8 7.16 183.44 11,627.6
13.10.05 7,586.5 433.08 7,191.5 7.19 183.28 17,419.5
14.10.05 7,580.4 432.65 7,191.8 7.20 183.26 16,859.6
17.10.05 6,992.1 433.96 7,374.6 7.22 183.25 2,320.8
18.10.05 7,063.7 435.17 7,392.7 7.25 183.10 14,973.6
19.10.05 7,120.2 435.69 7,406.5 7.22 183.36 10,591.4
20.10.05 7,117.3 435.58 7,433.5 7.21 183.44 11,553.5
21.10.05 7,133.9 435.57 7,433.4 7.23 183.34 18,984.5
22.10.05 7,121.4 432.42 7,634.9 7.19 183.68 5,703.0
26.10.05 7,120.3 429.50 7,634.6 7.22 183.60 17,611.0
27.10.05 7,107.1 435.56 7,628.6 7.22 183.60 11,409.2
28.10.05 7,107.9 436.47 7,626.3 7.18 183.94 10,486.4
31.10.05 7,095.2 435.70 7,625.7 7.20 183.89 14,313.1
-------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- ---------
Trend -119.5 +23.84 +431.9 +0.08 +0.93 ,
-1.7% +5.8% +6.0% +1.1% +0.5% ,
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.
[2005-11-07]