ANALYSIS: In October of 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector grew by 19.4% to KZT649.8 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 7, 05/ - In October of 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 2,961 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT649.8 bn. or USD4,854.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 74.8% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in September of 2005 - 68.6%). In comparison with September of 2005 volume of transactions has grown by KZT105.5 bn. ($799.9 m.) or by 19.4% (by 19.7% in dollar terms). Relative to October of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by KZT70.6 bn. ($506.2 m.) or by 12.2% (by 11.6% in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover on KASE in October was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 93.3% of the sector's turnover (KZT606.1 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 88.7% (KZT576.1 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 4.6% (KZT30.0 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 6.7% of the sector's turnover (KZT43.7 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.8% (KZT4.9 bn.), deals in CS - 6.0% (KZT38.7 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in September of 2005 was as follows: autorepo - 93.8% (GS - 90.4%; CS - 3.4%); repo by direct method - 6.2% (GS - 0.8%; CS - 3.4%). Stake of exchange turnover in total volume of repo deals on Kazakhstan market in October of 2005 totaled 98.6%, in September - 99.4%. In the described segment of exchange market October was considerably, but not fundamentally differed from previous month, for it was characterized by different cost of the shortest money. Almost the whole month this indicator (TONIA - weighted average rate of "overnight" repo on the automatic market of repo in GS) was on anomalous high levels compared to previous three months. According to results of October TONIA was fixed at 2.04% APR (September - 0.33% APR, weighted average for 10 months of 2005 - 1.30% APR). In the opinion of specialists of IRBIS the reasons of growth of "overnight" repo rate are three factors: making of big budget payments by business subjects according to results of the third quarter; introduction of new reserve requirements for second tier banks; action of the National Bank towards increasing of the rates and yield of short-term notes. These factors caused increased need of the market in tenge and promoted to growth of exchange's repo market turnover in October. In November IRBIS agency does not expect considerable changes. Volume of transactions, most probably, will grow a bit reflecting the traditional tendency typical for the end or the year. Rates of "overnight" repo, in all probability, will remain on the same level. The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in October of 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 88.7% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 0.30 0.01 6.50 2.00 2.04 233,678.2 926 84.10 KZT_002 0.45 0.20 5.00 5.00 0.83 10,579.0 30 3.81 KZT_003 0.50 0.30 5.00 0.80 1.73 4,721.0 17 1.70 KZT_007 1.20 0.60 4.50 1.70 1.85 9,737.0 52 3.50 KZT_014 1.70 1.50 3.50 2.00 1.85 13,218.0 60 4.76 KZT_028 2.50 1.90 2.50 2.20 2.10 5,932.0 60 2.13 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 277,865.3 1,145 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 4.6% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ALKS_028 8.00 92.0 1 0.68 ASBNb3_001 3.75 3.75 4.50 4.50 3.96 770.0 5 5.68 ASBNb3_003 6.00 200.0 1 1.48 ASBNb4_001 4.50 4.50 4.75 4.50 4.60 240.0 3 1.77 ASFIb7_001 4.30 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.39 1,946.0 4 14.36 ASFIb7_003 7.00 483.0 1 3.56 ATFBb4_001 1.30 1.30 4.80 4.50 3.36 1,042.0 8 7.69 ATFBb4_003 1.50 1.50 7.00 7.00 3.63 614.0 3 4.53 ATFBb4_030 8.50 215.0 1 1.59 BTAIb6_001 3.25 2.30 6.00 4.50 4.43 1,531.0 6 11.30 BTASb4_001 3.00 2.80 4.75 4.20 3.77 1,631.0 8 12.04 BTASb4_007 4.00 300.0 1 2.21 CCBN_001 3.00 50.0 1 0.37 CCBN_030 9.00 723.0 1 5.34 CSBNb5_001 3.00 2.20 4.50 4.50 3.60 746.0 6 5.51 CSBNb5_003 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 3.47 227.0 2 1.68 CSBNb6_001 6.00 4.25 6.00 4.50 4.62 318.0 4 2.35 CSBNb6_003 4.00 4.00 7.00 7.00 5.30 92.0 2 0.68 CSBNb6_030 8.00 38.0 1 0.28 HRLT_003 4.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.52 97.0 2 0.72 HSBKb_028 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 100.0 2 0.74 HSBKb5_028 7.50 50.0 1 0.37 KKGBp_001 3.50 3.00 4.50 4.50 3.88 420.0 6 3.10 KZIKb1_001 5.50 60.0 1 0.44 KZTCb1_028 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 150.0 2 1.11 ORDB_028 12.50 120.0 1 0.89 TEBN_030 6.20 25.0 1 0.18 TEBNp_028 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 34.0 2 0.25 TSBNb1_014 5.80 75.0 1 0.55 TSBNb1_028 7.50 75.0 1 0.55 TXBNb2_028 7.50 60.0 1 0.44 VTBN_028 10.00 128.0 1 0.94 VTBNb3_001 9.00 249.0 1 1.84 VTBNb3_007 9.00 7.00 9.00 7.00 8.50 399.0 5 2.94 VTBNb3_014 10.00 250.0 1 1.84 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 13,550.2 88 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 0.8% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 0.40 0.40 3.50 3.10 1.94 3,064.5 10 85.24 3 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 100.0 1 2.78 4 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 100.0 1 2.78 13 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.0 1 0.08 23 4.00 1.80 4.00 1.80 2.14 257.7 7 7.17 31 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 69.9 1 1.94 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 3,595.2 21 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 6.0% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Subject Term of ----- ----- ------- -------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ALKSb2 31 6.00 13.4 1 0.06 51 3.50 14.8 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 28.2 2 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- AMGZ 91 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 2.1 2 0.01 92 7.00 0.7 1 0.003 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 2.7 3 0.013 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb2 1 3.72 7.43 7.43 4.96 120.0 2 0.55 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb3 1 1.53 3.65 3.65 1.89 180.0 2 0.82 7 4.69 5.39 5.39 4.83 249.0 2 1.14 15 1.22 13.9 1 0.06 52 1.22 30.0 1 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 472.9 6 2.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb4 3 4.50 150.0 1 0.69 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASFIb4 90 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 330.1 2 1.51 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASFIb5 182 6.00 160.0 1 0.73 365 9.00 50.0 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 210.0 2 0.96 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb4 1 1.49 1.98 1.98 1.74 210.1 4 0.96 3 3.53 200.0 1 0.92 4 1.98 33.0 1 0.15 7 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.11 253.1 2 1.16 9 1.53 300.0 1 1.37 13 4.01 47.6 1 0.22 14 4.20 5.50 5.50 4.73 334.9 4 1.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,378.7 14 6.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb5 3 2.50 10.5 1 0.05 7 1.50 7.0 1 0.03 28 4.00 160.0 1 0.73 30 4.00 6.00 6.00 4.46 90.9 2 0.42 32 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 421.3 2 1.93 44 3.00 10.5 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 700.1 8 3.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBp 24 5.01 10.0 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBp8 4 5.04 53.9 1 0.25 5 5.04 5.04 5.04 5.04 61.0 4 0.28 23 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 215.7 3 0.99 61 7.80 101.0 1 0.46 90 5.00 240.0 1 1.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 671.6 10 3.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- AZNO 28 3.00 495.0 1 2.27 120 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 400.0 3 1.83 182 9.00 350.0 1 1.60 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,245.0 5 5.70 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb5 92 8.00 19.4 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb6 1 2.19 300.0 1 1.37 2 3.74 4.00 3.74 3.88 359.0 2 1.64 7 6.00 405.0 1 1.86 11 3.00 300.0 1 1.37 32 2.00 495.0 1 2.27 49 7.00 210.9 1 0.97 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 2,069.9 7 9.48 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb8 2 2.01 40.0 1 0.18 3 2.50 43.0 1 0.20 7 3.01 43.7 1 0.20 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 126.7 3 0.58 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb4 1 1.83 100.0 1 0.46 8 2.00 5.00 5.00 3.17 820.3 2 3.76 18 2.00 500.0 1 2.29 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,420.3 4 6.51 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBN 2 4.56 15.0 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb4 1 3.29 3.51 3.51 3.38 389.3 3 1.78 5 3.51 167.3 1 0.77 12 3.64 131.9 1 0.60 61 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 129.6 2 0.59 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 818.0 7 3.75 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb6 51 3.50 3.7 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb7 1 1.51 5.00 5.00 3.91 299.5 2 1.37 14 6.50 221.1 1 1.01 33 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 148.9 2 0.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 669.4 5 3.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNp 1 5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34 117.1 2 0.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CHFM 367 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 1,362.9 2 6.24 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb4 4 3.50 66.2 1 0.30 33 8.00 15.7 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 81.9 2 0.38 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb5 17 2.00 100.0 1 0.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb6 7 3.50 100.0 1 0.46 31 9.00 10.0 1 0.05 182 6.00 118.0 1 0.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 227.9 3 1.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HRLT 7 12.04 50.8 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBK 31 5.89 30.0 1 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb 30 8.50 23.0 1 0.11 92 8.80 12.2 1 0.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 35.2 2 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb3 32 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.18 328.2 2 1.50 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb9 14 4.65 251.2 1 1.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKGBb2 14 5.00 35.0 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKGBp 3 3.50 4.38 4.38 3.94 2,276.0 2 10.43 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb5 30 3.18 3.19 3.18 3.18 802.4 4 3.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 1 3.65 50.0 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTK 4 5.00 2.0 1 0.01 10 5.00 0.6 1 0.003 23 6.00 2.0 1 0.01 92 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 229.7 3 1.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 234.4 6 1.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTKp 31 15.00 1.5 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTOe1 24 4.45 39.9 1 0.18 51 3.50 1.7 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 41.6 2 0.19 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZZN 42 6.00 40.0 1 0.18 81 8.30 8.2 1 0.04 182 9.00 0.3 1 0.001 271 8.50 20.0 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 68.5 4 0.31 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NFBN 1 8.76 8.81 8.76 8.79 51.8 2 0.24 28 8.50 24.0 1 0.11 32 10.99 10.99 10.99 10.99 449.7 5 2.06 94 12.00 33.5 1 0.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 559.0 9 2.56 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNb2 4 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 88.7 4 0.41 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNb4 17 1.80 195.4 1 0.90 27 2.01 117.0 1 0.54 33 10.00 20.0 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 332.4 3 1.52 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 31 9.50 5.0 1 0.02 33 10.50 45.0 1 0.21 92 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 150.0 2 0.69 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 200.0 4 0.92 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDB 1 7.98 9.94 7.98 8.16 63.0 3 0.29 29 9.00 10.0 1 0.05 30 7.50 10.00 7.50 8.84 17.3 2 0.08 31 9.50 10.00 9.50 9.97 114.5 4 0.52 32 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 83.3 3 0.38 33 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 78.3 2 0.36 92 4.00 10.00 4.00 6.24 241.0 2 1.10 123 4.00 5.00 4.00 4.52 103.8 2 0.48 182 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 30.0 1 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 741.2 20 3.40 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDBp 90 5.00 160.0 1 0.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORNK 28 13.04 98.0 1 0.45 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 2 5.37 71.4 1 0.33 12 7.09 71.1 1 0.33 32 5.02 16.5 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 159.0 3 0.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ROSA 28 10.99 250.0 1 1.15 222 10.00 35.0 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 285.0 2 1.31 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ROSAb1 32 9.00 14.4 1 0.07 33 9.00 5.0 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 19.4 2 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TEBN 1 3.86 20.0 1 0.09 2 8.00 10.04 8.00 8.52 28.2 3 0.13 7 9.98 10.0 1 0.05 11 5.49 3.0 1 0.01 18 5.99 2.0 1 0.01 30 9.00 5.0 1 0.02 33 10.50 12.00 12.00 10.50 180.9 3 0.83 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 249.1 11 1.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TSBNb1 31 9.54 5.0 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TXBNb3 91 7.03 7.3 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UKPFb1 365 9.00 49.2 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UKTCb1 7 3.39 1.4 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UTMK 182 9.00 100.0 1 0.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBN 1 3.13 55.7 1 0.26 4 6.36 13.2 1 0.06 7 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 30.0 2 0.14 30 9.99 1.5 1 0.01 31 8.49 9.49 9.01 8.83 41.5 3 0.19 32 5.00 9.99 5.00 5.09 457.7 6 2.10 33 9.02 11.51 9.02 10.78 213.0 6 0.98 182 6.00 8.50 8.50 6.53 283.2 2 1.30 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,095.8 22 5.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 30 9.50 30.0 1 0.14 33 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 107.7 3 0.49 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 137.7 4 0.63 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 33 10.46 10.47 10.46 10.46 129.1 2 0.59 90 5.00 100.4 1 0.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 229.5 3 1.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb3 1 6.00 4.0 1 0.02 4 3.00 6.50 6.50 4.81 206.8 2 0.95 16 7.25 142.0 1 0.65 22 7.00 12.5 1 0.06 28 8.00 8.50 8.50 8.12 83.3 2 0.38 29 7.50 10.0 1 0.05 32 7.75 28.1 1 0.13 33 11.50 0.5 1 0.003 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 487.2 10 2.232 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNp 30 8.52 7.5 1 0.03 31 11.99 8.3 1 0.04 547 10.50 200.0 1 0.92 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 215.8 3 0.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTSKb2 30 9.97 12.0 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTTHb1 33 9.97 8.6 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTZL 32 9.98 1.4 1 0.01 33 9.98 11.50 11.50 10.80 28.2 2 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 29.6 3 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 21,827.0 235 100.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [2005-11-07]