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Market and Company News
05.10.2005 11:08

ANALYSIS: In September 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE decreased by 2.4% to $256.1 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 05/ - In September 2005 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 701 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT34,383.3 m. or $256.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 4.3% of monthly exchange turnover (in August 2005 - 4.9%).

In comparison with August 2005 volume of transactions decreased in dollar expression by $80,009.3 th. (by KZT11,179.9 m.) or by 2.4% (by 2.5% in terms of tenge). Relative to September 2004 volume of transactions has increased by $54,982.7 th. (KZT7,167.5 m.) or by 27.3% (by 26.3% in terms of tenge).

Structure of CS turnover on KASE in September looked as follows: stake of purchase and sale sector was 96.0% of all made deals volume ($245,995.9 th.); the stake of primary floatations - 4.0% (($10,137.7 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in August 2005: stake of purchase and sale sector was 90.0% of all made deals volume ($302,524.9 th.); SBS sector - 7.8% ($26,382.6 th.); the stake of primary floatations - 2.2% ($7,235.4 th.).

SHARE MARKET

In September this sector of CS exchange market was characterized by drop of turnover relative to August by 21.1% or by $22.4 m. to the equivalent $84.0 m. number of shares, involved in deals of the month, grew from 29 in August to 31 in September, and number of deals grew from 213 to 241.

In the analyzed month 38.2% of deals with shares in quantitative expression and 35.3% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of August - 46.9% and 51.1%.

5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of September 2005 (i.e. 4 shares, which became TEBNp, CCBN, HSBKp1 and TEBN), formed 71.5% of exchange's turnover, including floatations. Similar indicator of August - 75.9%, in July - 71.4%.

September's "top-5" by the volume of made transactions comprised: TEBNp (29.9% from share turnover), CCBN (21.5%), HSBKp1 (12.1%), TEBN (8.0%) and CHFM (6.2%). CCBN and HSBKp1 could keep their positions in the top relative August. Last month the first 5 positions belonged to HSBKp1 (37.4%), ORDB (22.7%), CCBN (10.9%), UTMK (4.9%) and ASFI (3,9% from the whole share market).

On number of conducted deals - index, the most correctly reflecting the degree of shares liquidity at KASE - in September leaders were TEBNp (63 deals). They were followed by CCBN (54), TEBN (15), KKGBp (14) and BTAS (10). In August the first 5 positions of this rating were represented by VTBNp (22), CCBN (18), KKGBp (18), KZZN (16) and TEBNp (14).

Main peculiarity of the last month became price behavior of common shares of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC (HSBK). Price of this security after split, hold at the end of August forwardly growing. And if on September 14 HSBK were traded at KZT44.00, on September 23 rate of shares reached KZT60.00 per security. The above index was fixed on direct deal. However market level of that day - KZT54.00 - also looks dignified. It should be noted, that HSBK gradually turn into stock exchange instrument, price of which starts adequately react to success of its issuer. Trade of this security looks more marketable, and this should cause interest of investors.

Interesting moment in price dynamics of stake instruments, traded during September at KASE, is forward rate growth of common shares of Astana- Finance JSC (ASFI). Starting from last numbers of August these shares showed more than double growth, which in analyzed month resulted in achievement of historical maximum rate - KZT1,823.46 per security. Alas, this index was not confirmed by the last deal of September, as a result of which rate dropped to KZT1,468.51. However this transaction was direct and considerably gave way to previous deal on number of resold securities.

From 31 shares, involved in deals of September, weighted average daily prices of eighteen shares grew, only five fell, prices of six shares remained unchanged (prices of two shares were nothing to compare with). Leader of growth (in 2.2 times) became ASFI, fall, not taking into account HSBK (due to hold split) were HRLT (by 35.9%).

KASE_Shares index by September 6 (vide the third table) reached its historical maximum (430.52), mainly it was assisted by increase of demand price for common shares of KAZZINK JSC, CNPC-Aktobemunaigas JSC and Temirbank JSC. However drop of quotations of these shares the next day resulted in return of KASE_Shares to the same level, which was marked at the beginning of the month.

It should be noted, that in connection with split of common shares of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC (the first market estimation at KASE "new" shares of this bank got on September 14) algorithm of index calculation was supplemented in September by necessary procedures, which allow correctly react to events of such kind. As a result of introduction of these procedures in index calculation on September 23 stock exchange had to correct indexes of KASE_Shares for the period from September 15 to September 22.

CORPORATE BOND MARKET

Relative to August 2005 volume of deals decreased by 15.4% (by $31,230.2 th.) to $172.2 m. Range of securities involved into deals narrowed to 61 (in August - 70), and number of deals increased from 363 to 460. The stake of direct deals was 30.0% of transactions in quantitative expression and 21.1% in volumetric. Corresponding figures of August - 15.98% and 16.02%.

5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as on the end of analyzed month (i.e. 6 securities, which became KZAPb1, CCBNb9, BTAIb8, ASFIb5, KZIKb3 and KARMb2), formed 44.8% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds. Similar indicator of market's concentration in August was 63.0%, in July - 57.1%. In September KATRb1 (52 deals) were absolute leader. They were followed by BTASb4 (38), KZAPb1 (26), TXBNb2 (25), and also KZALb1 and HSBKb3 (22). BTASb4, TXBNb2, KZALb1 and HSBKb3 have kept leading positions relative to August.

Out of 61 bonds involved into deals of September 50 securities characterized by positive change of weighted average dirty prices, negative - 10. There was nothing to compare prices of one new bonds with. Leader of growth (by 13.3%), became TEBNb2, fall (by 5.8%) - NRBNb2. Weighted average daily dirty prices of five bonds grew by 5% and more, whereas only one security characterized by considerable decrease. On concluded deals yields of 28 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in September, decreased - 32.

The above price parameters of the market as a whole adequately reflected on indexes dynamics of KASE_B* series (vide the third table). However it should be noted, that on September 28 extreme fall of KASE_BY to historical minimum was fixed. Adequately - historical maximum - also marked price indexes - KASE_BC и KASE_BP. Results of carried out investigations allow to affirm, that such considerable change of indexes was caused by quotations of international bonds SPV of Kazkommertsbank JSC of three issues (KKGBe4, KKGBe5, KKGBe6), market-maker of which played for increase without apparent reasons. Confirmed transactions on these demand prices at KASE were not registered.

Below is statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market on KASE in September 2005 is published.

Change of KASE's securities lists in September 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month)

--------------------------------------------------
                 Shares:       Bonds:     Issuers:
Category of ------------ ------------ ------------
admission   number trend number trend number trend
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A               48     0    122     0     54    -1
B               39     0      5     0     35     0
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B             87     0    127     0     87     0
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N                6    +3      0     0      6    +3
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
TOTAL           93    +3    127     0     91    +2
--------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing
category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Most tradable CS on KASE in September 2005 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary offerings)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     Volume of deals:
 Code    Brief                     --------- --------   Num- Market   Price
of       name of                         th.       m. ber of share, change,
security Issuer                          USD      KZT  deals      %       %
-------- ------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TEBNp    Temirbank JSC              25,075.9  3,364.3     63   9.79       0
KZAPb1   NAC Kazatomprom JSC        22,974.8  3,094.1     26   8.97   -2.67
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit JSC      18,067.8  2,422.0     54   7.05   -5.91
CCBNb9   Bank CenterCredit JSC      11,871.4  1,589.4      5   4.63       Х
BTAIb8   BTA Ipoteka JSC            11,798.4  1,581.7      8   4.61   +6.39
ASFIb5   Astana-Finance JSC         11,221.5  1,506.4     19   4.38   +1.70
KZIKb3   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                10,364.4  1,388.7      7   4.05   +1.82
HSBKp1   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC     10,137.7  1,368.7      1   3.96       0
KARMb2   Karazhanbasmunai JSC        8,872.5  1,188.8      3   3.46   +0.66
CSBNb6   BANK CASPIAN JSC            8,153.6  1,093.2      6   3.18   +0.83
VTBNb3   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC      7,689.5  1,030.9      8   3.00   +0.37
TEBN     Temirbank JSC               6,750.9    906.7     15   2.64   +0.07
CCBNb8   Bank CenterCredit JSC       6,708.2    901.9      8   2.62   +1.85
BTAIb5   BTA Ipoteka JSC             6,306.1    847.2      7   2.46   +1.15
KKGBb3   Kazkommertsbank JSC         6,182.1    828.7      5   2.41   +0.36
CHFM     Chimfarm JSC                5,170.6    694.7      9   2.02   +0.91
ASFIb7   Astana-Finance JSC          4,973.5    668.0      6   1.94   +0.84
KKGBp    Kazkommertsbank JSC         4,885.5    654.1     14   1.91   +1.90
CSBNb4   BANK CASPIAN JSC            4,306.6    577.3      4   1.68   +0.93
ASBNb3   Alliance Bank JSC           3,952.6    529.7      6   1.54   +0.64
HSBKb2   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC      3,749.8    502.9     12   1.46   +1.69
BTASb4   Bank TuranAlem JSC          3,699.9    496.6     38   1.44   -0.66
BTAS     Bank TuranAlem JSC          3,483.1    466.4     10   1.36  +28.29
NRBNb2   Nurbank JSC                 3,278.8    442.8      3   1.28   -5.80
NRBNb4   Nurbank JSC                 2,924.3    394.9      3   1.14   +0.91
TEBNb3   Temirbank JSC               2,843.7    382.5      3   1.11   +1.57
ORDBp    Corporation Ordabasy JSC    2,821.1    378.1      1   1.10  +28.57
CCBNb7   Bank CenterCredit JSC       2,803.4    376.0      2   1.09   +0.19
KATRb1   KazAgroTrade+ LLP           2,759.8    370.4     52   1.08   +1.13
ATFBb5   ATFBank JSC                 2,647.0    355.5      8   1.03   +1.82
ALKSb2   ALMATY KUS JSC              2,604.4    349.2      7   1.02   +5.77
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                 2,414.9    324.1      6   0.94   +5.13
VTBNb4   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC      2,062.7    276.3      3   0.81   +0.79
UTMK     Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
         magnesium combine JSC       1,910.4    256.0      2   0.75   +2.94
CCBNp    Bank CenterCredit JSC       1,341.2    179.5      4   0.52   +1.51
ASFIb6   Astana-Finance JSC          1,214.3    163.1      5   0.47   +2.43
CSBNb2   BANK CASPIAN JSC            1,145.8    155.1      3   0.45   +2.04
UKPFb1   Ust-Kamenogorsk
         Poultry farm JSC            1,132.5    152.3     16   0.44   +1.19
BTAIb4   BTA Ipoteka JSC             1,101.4    147.7      4   0.43   +0.59
BTAIb6   BTA Ipoteka JSC               997.9    133.7      3   0.39   +1.70
KKAGb1   Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC         937.0    125.9      3   0.37   +0.71
ATFBb4   ATFBank JSC                   798.3    107.0      6   0.31   +2.38
KZASb2   KOSTANAY
         MINERALS JSC                  776.9    104.2     13   0.30   +1.88
KZTCb1   KazTransCom JSC               749.3    100.5      8   0.29   +2.68
HSBK     Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        676.5     90.6      6   0.26  -85.35
KZNHb2   Kazneftechim JSC              648.0     86.8      3   0.25   +1.42
VTBN     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        639.9     85.7      8   0.25   +3.41
DNBN     DANABANK JSC                  638.0     85.5      2   0.25       0
BRKZb1   Development Bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                583.7     78.3      2   0.23   +0.16
VTBNp    Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC        521.0     70.3      6   0.20  -18.99
HRLT     CHARALTYN JSC                 509.9     68.4      4   0.20  -35.86
TXBNb3   TEXAKABANK JSC                508.6     68.2      2   0.20   +4.02
VTTHb1   ТЕХНО-LIFE JSC                456.5     61.2     10   0.18   -0.42
GLOTb1   GLOTUR JSC                    448.0     60.2      1   0.17   +0.32
ASFIb4   Astana-Finance JSC            430.6     57.8      3   0.17   +0.83
TXBNb2   TEXAKABANK JSC                376.2     50.7     25   0.15   -0.71
ASFI     Astana-Finance JSC            339.6     45.5      8   0.13 +123.32
KZALb1   Mining-smelting
         concern Kazakhaltyn JSC       320.9     43.2     22   0.13   +2.40
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC            285.2     38.4      1   0.11   +4.04
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                   271.1     36.3      1   0.11   +1.05
MREKb1   Mangistau distribution
         main company JSC              245.6     33.0      3   0.10   +1.60
CCBNb3   Bank CenterCredit JSC         239.5     32.3      1   0.09   +3.90
HSBKp    Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC        198.9     26.7      7   0.08   +8.11
VTZLb1   Kazyuvelirprom JSC            186.0     25.0      2   0.07   -0.08
TSBNb2   Tsesnabank JSC                156.4     21.0      3   0.06   +1.59
KZZN     KAZZINC JSC                   147.5     19.8      4   0.06   -2.99
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC                      138.4     18.7      1   0.05   +0.70
KZTK     Kazakhtelecom JSC             119.6     16.1      3   0.05  +24.48
KZDK     Kazakhstan distribution
         company JSC                   111.3     14.9      1   0.04       Х
DAMU     Mortgage company
         DAMU JSC                      111.3     14.9      1   0.04       Х
CCBNb6   Bank CenterCredit JSC         108.6     14.6      1   0.04   -2.21
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK JSC                108.4     14.6      1   0.04   -3.72
ROSA     ROSA JSC                      106.1     14.2      1   0.04   +0.07
CSBNb3   BANK CASPIAN JSC               94.3     12.8      1   0.04   +1.50
TEBNb2   Temirbank JSC                  84.0     11.3     14   0.03  +13.29
ORNK     Ornek XXI JSC                  82.8     11.1      2   0.03       0
BTAIb1   BTA Ipoteka JSC                80.1     10.8      1   0.03   +4.52
PRKRb1   Food contract
         company JSC                    76.8     10.3      1   0.03   -0.02
VTSKb2   Security corporation
         Sary-Arka Sarbazy LLP          74.6     10.0      2   0.03   +2.73
HSBKb    Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC         73.3      9.8      1   0.03   +0.40
VTZL     Kazyuvelirprom JSC             66.2      8.9      2   0.03  +13.64
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC              54.3      7.3      1   0.02   +0.36
HSBKb3   Halyk savings
         bank of Kazakhstan JSC         45.7      6.1     22   0.02   +0.39
KZPSb1   Kazpost JSC                    25.1      3.4     17   0.01   +0.06
CSBN     BANK CASPIAN JSC               22.7      3.0      2   0.01  +55.70
UKTCb1   AES Ust-Kamenogorsk
         HS JSC                         15.2      2.0      2   0.01   -0.65
TSBN     Tsesnabank JSC                 14.9      2.0      2   0.01       0
ULBAp    Ulbinsk metallurgical
         plant JSC                      14.5      1.9      2   0.01  +30.00
KZTKp    Kazakhtelecom JSC              11.0      1.5      1  0.004  +19.66
ALKZp    Aluminum of
         Kazakhstan JSC                  4.1      0.6      4  0.002       0
ZERD     ZerdeJSC                        1.3      0.2      1 <0.001  +17.24
KKGB     Kazkommertsbank JSC             0.1     0.02      1 <0.001   +0.55
-------- ------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL    92                        256,133.7 34,383.3    701  100.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of
deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the
following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond; "e" -
eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the ordinal
number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it
is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security
got the first estimation at KASE in analyzed period.

Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in September 2005

------------------------------------------------------------------
         Capitaliza-        Capitaliza-
                tion               tion       Bond value Volume of
              of the             of the           index,  purchase
               share               bond Bonds  including  and sale
             market,  Share     market, yield      accum    deals,
  Date        m. USD  index      m. USD index   interest   th. USD
-------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- ---------
31.08.05     6,865.6 411.00     7,120.4  7.46     179.89   9,516.6
01.09.05     6,866.8 411.09     7,119.4  7.40     180.05   5,235.1
02.09.05     6,874.2 400.67     7,124.1  7.41     180.04  10,463.7
05.09.05     6,887.1 401.72     7,124.8  7.42     180.09  20,090.9
06.09.05     6,901.1 430.52     7,129.0  7.41     180.19   9,500.5
07.09.05     6,925.1 401.69     7,134.4  7.43     180.07   3,049.4
08.09.05     6,928.3 402.02     7,174.4  7.45     179.97  32,072.6
09.09.05     6,906.0 403.36     7,176.1  7.43     180.17  17,488.9
12.09.05     6,918.4 406.85     7,182.6  7.41     180.41   6,209.9
13.09.05     6,925.1 406.34     7,182.9  7.42     180.34   1,425.6
14.09.05     6,948.5 407.68     7,181.9  7.41     180.48   8,400.0
15.09.05     7,006.9 406.86     7,182.5  7.42     180.45   6,657.5
16.09.05     7,030.9 410.29     7,184.8  7.41     180.53   6,014.4
19.09.05     6,960.8 411.64     7,182.5  7.32     181.23   5,741.6
20.09.05     6,871.8 408.36     7,184.2  7.37     180.98  10,654.3
21.09.05     6,967.3 411.59     7,188.1  7.36     181.02  24,951.5
22.09.05     7,031.2 418.02     7,191.4  7.34     181.16  10,725.1
23.09.05     7,127.1 419.41     7,192.1  7.38     180.93  11,780.7
26.09.05     7,119.4 414.54     7,187.8  7.40     180.96   6,226.1
27.09.05     7,124.7 414.77     7,185.1  7.42     180.83  20,987.3
28.09.05     7,134.4 413.45     7,191.3  7.11     182.97     686.9
29.09.05     7,148.0 413.85     7,189.6  7.22     182.25  18,934.1
30.09.05     7,214.7 411.87     7,193.8  7.13     182.96  18,837.5
-------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- ---------
Trend         +349.1  +0.87       +73.4 -0.33      +3.07         
               +5.1%  +0.2%       +1.0% -4.4%      +1.7%         
------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on
the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category,
including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the
bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating
on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the
number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market
values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead.
Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market
capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of
the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued
shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the
face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the
rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY)
- weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of
category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals
or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds
yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through
capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the
KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of
the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes
the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on
KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.

[2005-10-05]