ANALYSIS: In September 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals on KASE decreased by 2.4% to $256.1 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 05/ - In September 2005 on the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 701 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT34,383.3 m. or $256.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 4.3% of monthly exchange turnover (in August 2005 - 4.9%). In comparison with August 2005 volume of transactions decreased in dollar expression by $80,009.3 th. (by KZT11,179.9 m.) or by 2.4% (by 2.5% in terms of tenge). Relative to September 2004 volume of transactions has increased by $54,982.7 th. (KZT7,167.5 m.) or by 27.3% (by 26.3% in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover on KASE in September looked as follows: stake of purchase and sale sector was 96.0% of all made deals volume ($245,995.9 th.); the stake of primary floatations - 4.0% (($10,137.7 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in August 2005: stake of purchase and sale sector was 90.0% of all made deals volume ($302,524.9 th.); SBS sector - 7.8% ($26,382.6 th.); the stake of primary floatations - 2.2% ($7,235.4 th.). SHARE MARKET In September this sector of CS exchange market was characterized by drop of turnover relative to August by 21.1% or by $22.4 m. to the equivalent $84.0 m. number of shares, involved in deals of the month, grew from 29 in August to 31 in September, and number of deals grew from 213 to 241. In the analyzed month 38.2% of deals with shares in quantitative expression and 35.3% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of August - 46.9% and 51.1%. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of September 2005 (i.e. 4 shares, which became TEBNp, CCBN, HSBKp1 and TEBN), formed 71.5% of exchange's turnover, including floatations. Similar indicator of August - 75.9%, in July - 71.4%. September's "top-5" by the volume of made transactions comprised: TEBNp (29.9% from share turnover), CCBN (21.5%), HSBKp1 (12.1%), TEBN (8.0%) and CHFM (6.2%). CCBN and HSBKp1 could keep their positions in the top relative August. Last month the first 5 positions belonged to HSBKp1 (37.4%), ORDB (22.7%), CCBN (10.9%), UTMK (4.9%) and ASFI (3,9% from the whole share market). On number of conducted deals - index, the most correctly reflecting the degree of shares liquidity at KASE - in September leaders were TEBNp (63 deals). They were followed by CCBN (54), TEBN (15), KKGBp (14) and BTAS (10). In August the first 5 positions of this rating were represented by VTBNp (22), CCBN (18), KKGBp (18), KZZN (16) and TEBNp (14). Main peculiarity of the last month became price behavior of common shares of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC (HSBK). Price of this security after split, hold at the end of August forwardly growing. And if on September 14 HSBK were traded at KZT44.00, on September 23 rate of shares reached KZT60.00 per security. The above index was fixed on direct deal. However market level of that day - KZT54.00 - also looks dignified. It should be noted, that HSBK gradually turn into stock exchange instrument, price of which starts adequately react to success of its issuer. Trade of this security looks more marketable, and this should cause interest of investors. Interesting moment in price dynamics of stake instruments, traded during September at KASE, is forward rate growth of common shares of Astana- Finance JSC (ASFI). Starting from last numbers of August these shares showed more than double growth, which in analyzed month resulted in achievement of historical maximum rate - KZT1,823.46 per security. Alas, this index was not confirmed by the last deal of September, as a result of which rate dropped to KZT1,468.51. However this transaction was direct and considerably gave way to previous deal on number of resold securities. From 31 shares, involved in deals of September, weighted average daily prices of eighteen shares grew, only five fell, prices of six shares remained unchanged (prices of two shares were nothing to compare with). Leader of growth (in 2.2 times) became ASFI, fall, not taking into account HSBK (due to hold split) were HRLT (by 35.9%). KASE_Shares index by September 6 (vide the third table) reached its historical maximum (430.52), mainly it was assisted by increase of demand price for common shares of KAZZINK JSC, CNPC-Aktobemunaigas JSC and Temirbank JSC. However drop of quotations of these shares the next day resulted in return of KASE_Shares to the same level, which was marked at the beginning of the month. It should be noted, that in connection with split of common shares of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC (the first market estimation at KASE "new" shares of this bank got on September 14) algorithm of index calculation was supplemented in September by necessary procedures, which allow correctly react to events of such kind. As a result of introduction of these procedures in index calculation on September 23 stock exchange had to correct indexes of KASE_Shares for the period from September 15 to September 22. CORPORATE BOND MARKET Relative to August 2005 volume of deals decreased by 15.4% (by $31,230.2 th.) to $172.2 m. Range of securities involved into deals narrowed to 61 (in August - 70), and number of deals increased from 363 to 460. The stake of direct deals was 30.0% of transactions in quantitative expression and 21.1% in volumetric. Corresponding figures of August - 15.98% and 16.02%. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as on the end of analyzed month (i.e. 6 securities, which became KZAPb1, CCBNb9, BTAIb8, ASFIb5, KZIKb3 and KARMb2), formed 44.8% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds. Similar indicator of market's concentration in August was 63.0%, in July - 57.1%. In September KATRb1 (52 deals) were absolute leader. They were followed by BTASb4 (38), KZAPb1 (26), TXBNb2 (25), and also KZALb1 and HSBKb3 (22). BTASb4, TXBNb2, KZALb1 and HSBKb3 have kept leading positions relative to August. Out of 61 bonds involved into deals of September 50 securities characterized by positive change of weighted average dirty prices, negative - 10. There was nothing to compare prices of one new bonds with. Leader of growth (by 13.3%), became TEBNb2, fall (by 5.8%) - NRBNb2. Weighted average daily dirty prices of five bonds grew by 5% and more, whereas only one security characterized by considerable decrease. On concluded deals yields of 28 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in September, decreased - 32. The above price parameters of the market as a whole adequately reflected on indexes dynamics of KASE_B* series (vide the third table). However it should be noted, that on September 28 extreme fall of KASE_BY to historical minimum was fixed. Adequately - historical maximum - also marked price indexes - KASE_BC и KASE_BP. Results of carried out investigations allow to affirm, that such considerable change of indexes was caused by quotations of international bonds SPV of Kazkommertsbank JSC of three issues (KKGBe4, KKGBe5, KKGBe6), market-maker of which played for increase without apparent reasons. Confirmed transactions on these demand prices at KASE were not registered. Below is statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market on KASE in September 2005 is published. Change of KASE's securities lists in September 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 48 0 122 0 54 -1 B 39 0 5 0 35 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 87 0 127 0 87 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 6 +3 0 0 6 +3 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 93 +3 127 0 91 +2 -------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable CS on KASE in September 2005 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary offerings) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TEBNp Temirbank JSC 25,075.9 3,364.3 63 9.79 0 KZAPb1 NAC Kazatomprom JSC 22,974.8 3,094.1 26 8.97 -2.67 CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 18,067.8 2,422.0 54 7.05 -5.91 CCBNb9 Bank CenterCredit JSC 11,871.4 1,589.4 5 4.63 Х BTAIb8 BTA Ipoteka JSC 11,798.4 1,581.7 8 4.61 +6.39 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 11,221.5 1,506.4 19 4.38 +1.70 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 10,364.4 1,388.7 7 4.05 +1.82 HSBKp1 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 10,137.7 1,368.7 1 3.96 0 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunai JSC 8,872.5 1,188.8 3 3.46 +0.66 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 8,153.6 1,093.2 6 3.18 +0.83 VTBNb3 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 7,689.5 1,030.9 8 3.00 +0.37 TEBN Temirbank JSC 6,750.9 906.7 15 2.64 +0.07 CCBNb8 Bank CenterCredit JSC 6,708.2 901.9 8 2.62 +1.85 BTAIb5 BTA Ipoteka JSC 6,306.1 847.2 7 2.46 +1.15 KKGBb3 Kazkommertsbank JSC 6,182.1 828.7 5 2.41 +0.36 CHFM Chimfarm JSC 5,170.6 694.7 9 2.02 +0.91 ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 4,973.5 668.0 6 1.94 +0.84 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 4,885.5 654.1 14 1.91 +1.90 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 4,306.6 577.3 4 1.68 +0.93 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 3,952.6 529.7 6 1.54 +0.64 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 3,749.8 502.9 12 1.46 +1.69 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 3,699.9 496.6 38 1.44 -0.66 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 3,483.1 466.4 10 1.36 +28.29 NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 3,278.8 442.8 3 1.28 -5.80 NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 2,924.3 394.9 3 1.14 +0.91 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 2,843.7 382.5 3 1.11 +1.57 ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC 2,821.1 378.1 1 1.10 +28.57 CCBNb7 Bank CenterCredit JSC 2,803.4 376.0 2 1.09 +0.19 KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ LLP 2,759.8 370.4 52 1.08 +1.13 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 2,647.0 355.5 8 1.03 +1.82 ALKSb2 ALMATY KUS JSC 2,604.4 349.2 7 1.02 +5.77 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 2,414.9 324.1 6 0.94 +5.13 VTBNb4 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 2,062.7 276.3 3 0.81 +0.79 UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium- magnesium combine JSC 1,910.4 256.0 2 0.75 +2.94 CCBNp Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,341.2 179.5 4 0.52 +1.51 ASFIb6 Astana-Finance JSC 1,214.3 163.1 5 0.47 +2.43 CSBNb2 BANK CASPIAN JSC 1,145.8 155.1 3 0.45 +2.04 UKPFb1 Ust-Kamenogorsk Poultry farm JSC 1,132.5 152.3 16 0.44 +1.19 BTAIb4 BTA Ipoteka JSC 1,101.4 147.7 4 0.43 +0.59 BTAIb6 BTA Ipoteka JSC 997.9 133.7 3 0.39 +1.70 KKAGb1 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 937.0 125.9 3 0.37 +0.71 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 798.3 107.0 6 0.31 +2.38 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 776.9 104.2 13 0.30 +1.88 KZTCb1 KazTransCom JSC 749.3 100.5 8 0.29 +2.68 HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 676.5 90.6 6 0.26 -85.35 KZNHb2 Kazneftechim JSC 648.0 86.8 3 0.25 +1.42 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 639.9 85.7 8 0.25 +3.41 DNBN DANABANK JSC 638.0 85.5 2 0.25 0 BRKZb1 Development Bank of Kazakhstan JSC 583.7 78.3 2 0.23 +0.16 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 521.0 70.3 6 0.20 -18.99 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 509.9 68.4 4 0.20 -35.86 TXBNb3 TEXAKABANK JSC 508.6 68.2 2 0.20 +4.02 VTTHb1 ТЕХНО-LIFE JSC 456.5 61.2 10 0.18 -0.42 GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 448.0 60.2 1 0.17 +0.32 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 430.6 57.8 3 0.17 +0.83 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 376.2 50.7 25 0.15 -0.71 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 339.6 45.5 8 0.13 +123.32 KZALb1 Mining-smelting concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 320.9 43.2 22 0.13 +2.40 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 285.2 38.4 1 0.11 +4.04 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 271.1 36.3 1 0.11 +1.05 MREKb1 Mangistau distribution main company JSC 245.6 33.0 3 0.10 +1.60 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 239.5 32.3 1 0.09 +3.90 HSBKp Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 198.9 26.7 7 0.08 +8.11 VTZLb1 Kazyuvelirprom JSC 186.0 25.0 2 0.07 -0.08 TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 156.4 21.0 3 0.06 +1.59 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 147.5 19.8 4 0.06 -2.99 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 138.4 18.7 1 0.05 +0.70 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 119.6 16.1 3 0.05 +24.48 KZDK Kazakhstan distribution company JSC 111.3 14.9 1 0.04 Х DAMU Mortgage company DAMU JSC 111.3 14.9 1 0.04 Х CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 108.6 14.6 1 0.04 -2.21 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 108.4 14.6 1 0.04 -3.72 ROSA ROSA JSC 106.1 14.2 1 0.04 +0.07 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 94.3 12.8 1 0.04 +1.50 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 84.0 11.3 14 0.03 +13.29 ORNK Ornek XXI JSC 82.8 11.1 2 0.03 0 BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 80.1 10.8 1 0.03 +4.52 PRKRb1 Food contract company JSC 76.8 10.3 1 0.03 -0.02 VTSKb2 Security corporation Sary-Arka Sarbazy LLP 74.6 10.0 2 0.03 +2.73 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 73.3 9.8 1 0.03 +0.40 VTZL Kazyuvelirprom JSC 66.2 8.9 2 0.03 +13.64 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 54.3 7.3 1 0.02 +0.36 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 45.7 6.1 22 0.02 +0.39 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 25.1 3.4 17 0.01 +0.06 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 22.7 3.0 2 0.01 +55.70 UKTCb1 AES Ust-Kamenogorsk HS JSC 15.2 2.0 2 0.01 -0.65 TSBN Tsesnabank JSC 14.9 2.0 2 0.01 0 ULBAp Ulbinsk metallurgical plant JSC 14.5 1.9 2 0.01 +30.00 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 11.0 1.5 1 0.004 +19.66 ALKZp Aluminum of Kazakhstan JSC 4.1 0.6 4 0.002 0 ZERD ZerdeJSC 1.3 0.2 1 <0.001 +17.24 KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC 0.1 0.02 1 <0.001 +0.55 -------- ------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 92 256,133.7 34,383.3 701 100.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond; "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the ordinal number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation at KASE in analyzed period. Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in September 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bond Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 31.08.05 6,865.6 411.00 7,120.4 7.46 179.89 9,516.6 01.09.05 6,866.8 411.09 7,119.4 7.40 180.05 5,235.1 02.09.05 6,874.2 400.67 7,124.1 7.41 180.04 10,463.7 05.09.05 6,887.1 401.72 7,124.8 7.42 180.09 20,090.9 06.09.05 6,901.1 430.52 7,129.0 7.41 180.19 9,500.5 07.09.05 6,925.1 401.69 7,134.4 7.43 180.07 3,049.4 08.09.05 6,928.3 402.02 7,174.4 7.45 179.97 32,072.6 09.09.05 6,906.0 403.36 7,176.1 7.43 180.17 17,488.9 12.09.05 6,918.4 406.85 7,182.6 7.41 180.41 6,209.9 13.09.05 6,925.1 406.34 7,182.9 7.42 180.34 1,425.6 14.09.05 6,948.5 407.68 7,181.9 7.41 180.48 8,400.0 15.09.05 7,006.9 406.86 7,182.5 7.42 180.45 6,657.5 16.09.05 7,030.9 410.29 7,184.8 7.41 180.53 6,014.4 19.09.05 6,960.8 411.64 7,182.5 7.32 181.23 5,741.6 20.09.05 6,871.8 408.36 7,184.2 7.37 180.98 10,654.3 21.09.05 6,967.3 411.59 7,188.1 7.36 181.02 24,951.5 22.09.05 7,031.2 418.02 7,191.4 7.34 181.16 10,725.1 23.09.05 7,127.1 419.41 7,192.1 7.38 180.93 11,780.7 26.09.05 7,119.4 414.54 7,187.8 7.40 180.96 6,226.1 27.09.05 7,124.7 414.77 7,185.1 7.42 180.83 20,987.3 28.09.05 7,134.4 413.45 7,191.3 7.11 182.97 686.9 29.09.05 7,148.0 413.85 7,189.6 7.22 182.25 18,934.1 30.09.05 7,214.7 411.87 7,193.8 7.13 182.96 18,837.5 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +349.1 +0.87 +73.4 -0.33 +3.07 +5.1% +0.2% +1.0% -4.4% +1.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2005-10-05]