ANALYSIS: In September 2005 volume of transactions in foreign currency on KASE grew by 41.7% to the equivalent of $1,160.5 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 05/ - In September 2005 volume of foreign currency transactions made on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) reached the equivalent of USD1,160.5 m. or KZT155,673.7 m. Relative to August 2005 the volume of transactions grew by USD341.6 m. (KZT44,704.8 m.) or by 41.7% in terms of dollar and by 40.3% in terms of tenge. Relative to September 2004 trade volume has grown 1.9 times in terms of dollar and 1.9 times in terms of tenge. The stake of this sector in stock exchange's turnover grew from 10.0% in August to 19.6% in September 2005. Total of 3,802 deals (3,349) were made in September 2005 on KASE (here and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses), including: in US dollars on TOD terms - 3,621 (3,257), on TOM terms -161 (70), on SPOT terms - 16 (15); in euros - 0 (1), in Russian ruble - 4 (6). 99.99% of the whole concluded deals volume in September 2005 total turnover of exchange's currency market fell to the stake of deals in US dollar. In previous month the stake was 99.38%. On US dollars the volume of transactions on KASE in September 2005 reached $1,160.4 m. (KZT155,663.3 m.). To compare, in August 2005 this figure equaled to $813.8 m. (KZT110,277.2 m.), in September 2004 - $593.6 m. (KZT80,238.5 m.). In September 2005 tenge was strengthening to dollar. The speed of this process calculated at exchange's weighted average rate of the main session is estimated by the trend of 13.4% APR (August 31, 05 = KZT135.32; September 30, 05 = KZT133.83). In August 2005 tenge was strengthening with the speed of 4.5% APR. Weighted average rate of U.S. dollar to tenge, calculated on deals of the main session in September 2005 is KZT134.21 per unit, on all exchange's deals - 134.14. For August these indicators were KZT135.53 and KZT135.51 per dollar. In euro deals in September 2005 at KASE were not concluded. Last month amount of deals with this currency at KASE was EURO4.0 m. (KZT669.6 m.). On Russian ruble the volume of transactions on KASE in September 2005 was RUB2,200 th. for a total of KZT10.4 m. (in August - RUB4,600 th. for KZT21.8 m.). Judging by change of weighted average exchange rate (August 31, 05 = 4.7650; September 30, 05 = 4.6850), in analyzed month tenge strengthened to ruble with average speed 20.4% APR. September at Kazakhstan stock market was turning month, as determined further movement of US dollar rate to tenge after summer uncertainty and doubts. In the opinion of IRBIS specialists, here were two key factors: consequences of hurricane in USA, which neutralized by its negative positive influence to dollar growth of FRS rate; completion of summer holidays of Kazakhstan exporters, which clarified with accumulated currency earnings. The last was typical also for September 2004, when management of enterprises-exporters after holidays sent considerable volumes of currency earnings to internal market. Signal was perceived by commercial banks, which started to build their dealing primary at short positions. However speculative constituent in behavior of their traders was shown not so strongly, as last autumn. Result of action of the above factors became change of medium term tendency in US dollar rate to tenge, growth of stock exchange turnover of this currency, and also increase of dollar stock exchanges' stake in Kazakhstan. October IRBIS specialists forecast like September. To all probability, tenge will continue to strengthen to main reserve currency of the world with small speed, which in many aspects will depend upon National Bank. [2005-10-05]