ANALYSIS: In September 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector fell by 24.2% to KZT7544.3 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 05/ - In September 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 2,488 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT7544.3 bn. or USD4,054.2 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 68.6% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in August 2005 - 77.5%). In comparison with August 2005 volume of transactions has fallen by KZT173.8 bn. ($1,245.4 m.) or by 24.2% (by 23.5% in dollar terms). Relative to September 2004 volume of transactions has grown by KZT78.6 bn. ($614.2 m.) or by 16.9% (by 17.9% in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover on KASE in September was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 93.8% of the sector's turnover (KZT510.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 90.4% (KZT492.1 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 3.4% (KZT18.4 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 6.2% of the sector's turnover (KZT33.8 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.8% (KZT4.2 bn.), deals in CS - 5.4% (KZT29.5 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in August 2005 was as follows: autorepo - 95.5% (GS - 91.4%; CS - 4.1%); repo by direct method - 4.5% (GS - 0.2%; CS - 4.3%). Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan market in September 2005 was 99.4%, in August - 99.7%. The analyzed month at repo stock market was within definite sense unique. Kazakhstan market in September demonstrated exceptional high liquidity of tenge. Average weighted index of TONIA indicator (repo "overnight" rate in sector of automate repo with GS) was record low for the whole history of the market existence (0.33 APR), and behavior of its day indexes did not find traditional dependence upon payments to budget. In the opinion of IRBIS specialists, formed situation in sector was caused by the following. Autumn growth of US dollar offer at internal market of the republic made National Bank to purchase USD in essential volumes, expanding money supply. Along with this, to neutralize this expansion through issue of new debt liabilities - notes - the National bank did not find possible (or appropriate), completing September, as well as August, at GS primary market with sharp negative net-borrowings balance. More stronger, than notes, influence instruments to money aggregates the head bank in September did not used. All this resulted in excess money. Separate repo "overnight" deals were concluded this month under 0.01% APR. Volume of repo deals decreased due to unattractiveness of instruments of this sector. Instrumental structure of repo turnover at KASE changed in favor of direct deals with CS. Inflation in September relative to August grew 4 times. In October IRBIS specialists expect slight growth of repo rates and hope for increase of stock exchange turnover in this sector. Optimism in this case is caused by expectation of new reserve requirements for commercial banks, able, in the opinion of dealers, to cause increased demand in tenge, introduction since October 3 of more high rates for weekly deposits of he National Bank, and also budget payments by the results of the quarter. The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in September 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 90.4% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 0.80 0.001 1.20 0.50 0.33 182,845.2 709 72.81 KZT_002 0.70 0.10 1.60 0.25 0.25 7,180.0 21 2.86 KZT_003 1.40 0.003 1.40 0.15 0.37 11,694.0 18 4.66 KZT_007 1.50 0.55 3.00 0.55 1.14 24,804.0 94 9.88 KZT_014 1.50 1.30 2.50 1.50 1.68 14,499.0 66 5.77 KZT_028 2.50 1.20 6.46 2.10 2.74 10,117.0 66 4.03 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 251,139.3 974 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 3.4% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ALKS_028 8.00 92.0 1 0.88 ATFBb4_001 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.50 1.56 310.0 3 2.96 ATFBb4_003 3.95 3.00 3.95 3.00 3.71 200.0 2 1.91 ATFBb4_007 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 240.0 2 2.29 ATFBb4_030 8.50 215.0 1 2.05 ATFBb5_007 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 395.0 2 3.77 ATFBp_007 4.50 61.0 1 0.58 ATFBp_014 5.20 61.0 1 0.58 ATFBp8_030 8.00 22.0 1 0.21 CCBN_030 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 717.0 2 6.84 HRLT_007 9.00 9.0 1 0.09 HSBKb_028 7.50 6.00 7.50 6.00 6.97 100.0 2 0.95 HSBKb5_007 5.70 80.0 1 0.76 HSBKb5_028 6.00 50.0 1 0.48 KKGBp_007 6.00 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.83 1,350.0 3 12.89 KKGBp_014 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1,250.0 2 11.93 KZIKb1_007 5.70 3.10 5.80 3.10 3.93 459.0 3 4.38 KZIKb1_014 5.80 60.0 1 0.57 KZIKb2_007 3.10 349.0 1 3.33 KZIKb3_007 3.10 221.0 1 2.11 KZIKb4_007 3.10 780.0 1 7.45 KZIKb5_007 3.10 154.0 1 1.47 KZIKb6_007 3.10 280.0 1 2.67 KZTCb1_028 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.75 152.0 2 1.45 KZTK_360 8.50 200.0 1 1.91 ORDB_365 8.00 300.0 1 2.86 ORDBp_001 3.00 96.0 1 0.92 ORDBp_003 3.70 3.55 3.70 3.55 3.63 148.0 2 1.41 ORDBp_007 3.50 150.0 1 1.43 RGBRb3_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 40.0 2 0.38 TEBN_010 5.75 5.70 5.75 5.70 5.73 97.0 5 0.93 TSBNb1_014 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 150.0 2 1.43 TXBNb2_001 3.00 100.0 1 0.95 TXBNb2_028 6.20 60.0 1 0.57 VTBN_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 100.0 2 0.95 VTBN_028 10.00 128.0 1 1.22 VTBNb3_001 6.00 230.0 1 2.20 VTBNb3_007 6.00 6.00 9.00 9.00 8.22 270.0 2 2.58 VTBNb3_014 9.00 300.0 1 2.86 VTBNb3_028 9.00 500.0 1 4.77 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 10,476.0 62 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 0.8% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 0.35 0.30 3.00 0.35 0.68 789.4 9 36.35 2 0.40 0.40 3.10 3.10 1.70 192.1 3 8.84 3 0.50 0.20 0.79 0.25 0.34 317.0 4 14.60 4 0.40 0.30 0.40 0.30 0.38 178.1 3 8.20 5 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 100.0 1 4.61 7 0.55 0.55 4.00 4.00 1.64 292.1 4 13.45 14 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 78.1 2 3.60 23 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 33.2 1 1.53 28 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 184.5 4 8.50 30 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 7.0 1 0.32 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 2,171.5 32 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 5.4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Subject Term of ---------------------- -------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- AMGZ 4 6.00 1.0 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb1 30 11.44 0.2 1 0.001 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb3 1 3.76 3.76 3.76 3.76 291.0 2 1.86 3 2.11 3.76 2.11 2.94 291.4 2 1.86 5 2.06 194.5 1 1.24 6 4.87 13.9 1 0.09 7 4.17 5.21 4.17 4.74 55.0 2 0.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 845.8 8 5.40 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb3 7 3.13 11.0 1 0.07 ATFBb4 1 3.29 150.0 1 0.96 5 2.01 300.0 1 1.91 Subtotal 450.0 2 2.87 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb5 33 3.50 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBe1 61 7.50 5.1 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBe2 61 7.50 5.2 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBp8 35 8.00 18.2 1 0.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- AZNO 364 9.00 230.0 1 1.47 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb6 1 2.01 150.0 1 0.96 7 4.50 60.0 1 0.38 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 210.0 2 1.34 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb8 1 1.99 75.0 1 0.48 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb1 7 5.00 237.4 1 1.52 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb4 1 1.50 200.0 1 1.28 3 2.00 500.0 1 3.19 7 5.00 252.7 1 1.61 29 2.50 1.0 1 0.01 30 3.00 14.0 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 967.7 5 6.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb7 1 4.00 8.00 5.00 6.27 812.3 5 5.18 3 3.00 4.00 4.00 3.38 391.7 5 2.50 5 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 220.0 2 1.40 7 4.00 220.0 1 1.40 10 5.00 400.0 1 2.55 12 3.00 3.01 3.01 3.00 285.7 2 1.82 14 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 226.5 2 1.45 15 6.00 128.7 1 0.82 16 8.00 100.2 1 0.64 23 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.81 187.1 3 1.19 28 7.50 47.3 1 0.30 30 8.50 5.0 1 0.03 31 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 200.3 2 1.28 37 6.00 101.1 1 0.65 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 3,325.8 28 21.22 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb8 1 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 397.2 2 2.53 7 3.00 6.00 4.00 3.75 761.3 5 4.86 11 5.02 147.8 1 0.94 28 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 137.2 2 0.88 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,443.5 10 9.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb6 14 6.00 60.0 1 0.38 30 8.00 40.0 1 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 100.0 2 0.64 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- DNBN 1 12.04 85.0 1 0.54 7 12.04 0.5 1 0.003 91 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 70.0 2 0.45 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 155.5 4 0.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HRLT 14 7.83 8.69 7.83 8.00 16.3 2 0.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBK 7 5.21 12.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb 7 5.00 122.9 1 0.78 31 8.50 23.0 1 0.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 145.9 2 0.93 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb2 17 5.00 12.3 1 0.08 30 5.00 3.5 1 0.02 31 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 41.1 2 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 56.9 4 0.36 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb3 7 5.21 148.2 1 0.95 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb9 7 5.00 258.1 1 1.65 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KARMb2 22 3.00 70.0 1 0.45 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKAGb1 1 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 32.9 3 0.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- 11 3.65 24.0 1 0.15 14 4.87 7.04 4.87 5.70 105.0 4 0.67 30 7.81 109.9 1 0.70 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 271.9 9 1.74 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKGBp 3 1.75 5.29 5.29 4.40 1,222.0 3 7.80 14 4.50 200.0 1 1.28 23 7.00 670.0 1 4.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 2,092.0 5 13.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb4 1 0.62 60.0 1 0.38 22 1.56 0.3 1 0.002 30 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.92 124.6 2 0.80 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 185.0 4 1.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb5 30 2.92 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 22 3.13 13.0 1 0.08 29 2.89 3.0 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 16.0 2 0.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTOe1 7 3.00 39.3 1 0.25 KZZN 7 6.00 40.0 1 0.26 68 7.50 10.0 1 0.06 185 7.00 42.6 1 0.27 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 92.6 3 0.59 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NFBN 28 8.50 17.0 1 0.11 179 14.08 1.8 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 18.8 2 0.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNb4 32 10.00 20.0 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 30 10.50 45.0 1 0.29 32 9.50 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 50.0 2 0.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDB 14 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 80.0 2 0.51 30 9.00 11.50 9.00 10.13 175.3 4 1.12 31 7.50 10.00 10.00 9.03 24.3 3 0.15 32 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 13.5 2 0.09 365 9.00 500.0 1 3.19 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 793.1 12 5.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORNK 31 9.42 26.0 1 0.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 30 7.50 95.0 1 0.61 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ROSAb1 30 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 19.4 2 0.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TEBN 30 3.01 12.00 11.50 10.10 27.5 4 0.18 31 8.01 10.01 8.50 8.52 33.2 4 0.21 32 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.50 20.0 2 0.13 33 8.49 20.8 1 0.13 39 3.02 1.7 1 0.01 15 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 2.0 2 0.01 Subtotal 105.2 14 0.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TSBNb1 32 9.47 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UKTCb1 1 5.00 100.0 1 0.64 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UTMK 14 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.5 2 0.003 181 9.00 94.4 1 0.60 182 9.00 7.0 1 0.04 185 9.00 10.5 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 112.4 5 0.72 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBN 4 5.53 55.0 1 0.35 8 3.09 34.3 1 0.22 11 6.01 7.54 6.01 6.73 265.2 2 1.69 14 6.00 2.0 1 0.01 20 5.16 5.16 5.16 5.16 500.0 2 3.19 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- 30 9.99 12.01 9.99 10.62 18.5 5 0.12 31 9.99 1.5 1 0.01 32 8.99 9.51 8.99 9.28 22.5 2 0.14 91 5.50 55.3 1 0.35 92 11.01 120.6 1 0.77 101 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 279.9 3 1.79 114 8.49 13.6 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,368.6 21 8.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 30 8.00 10.50 8.00 9.27 64.3 3 0.41 31 9.50 30.0 1 0.19 101 8.50 40.0 1 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 35.6 2 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UKTCb1 1 2.57 134.3 5 0.86 VTBNb2 30 10.53 105.0 1 0.67 114 8.48 260.0 1 1.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 365.0 2 2.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb3 1 2.85 100.0 1 0.64 7 7.00 120.0 1 0.77 27 8.25 15.0 1 0.10 30 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 100.0 2 0.64 39 7.50 150.0 1 0.96 91 8.00 143.0 1 0.91 365 4.03 50.0 1 0.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 678.0 8 4.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb4 117 3.01 223.2 1 1.42 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNp 30 12.01 8.3 1 0.05 31 8.49 7.5 1 0.05 32 7.50 12.0 1 0.08 Subtotal 27.8 3 0.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTSKb2 31 9.97 12.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTTHb1 32 9.98 8.6 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTZLb1 31 10.04 12.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 15,669.8 193 100.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [2005-10-05]