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05.10.2005 22:19

ANALYSIS: As of October 1, 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT633.5 bn. or $4,731.3 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 05/ - As of October 1, 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT633.5 bn., or equivalent $4,731.3 m. at the rate of KZT133.89 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was fixed for the period from July till September 2005, on MEUJKAM - from October 2004 till September 2005.

Within September 1 - 30 of 2005 total debt decreased by KZT34.1 bn. (- 5.10%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 202.0 m. (-4.09%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in August 2005 were -KZT31.6 bn. (-4.50%) or -$218.4 m. (-4.24%).

Following table contains detailed information.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Amount and structure of debt
                                  ----------------------------          Change
                                              as of      as of         for the
                    *Currency of        Sept 30, 05 Aug 31, 05          period
                    ------------- ----------------- ---------- ---------------
Issuer              issue serviсe  bn. KZT stake, %    bn. KZT    m. KZT     %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
National Bank       KZT   KZT      195.311     30.8    226.119 -30 807.3 -13.6
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
Ministry of Finance                429.749     67.8    432.912  -3 162.4  -0.7
incl. face value                   340.473     53.7    342.428  -1 954.9  -0.6
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT      293.611     46.3    295.066  -1 454.4  -0.5
also, euronotes     USD   USD       46.862      7.4     47.362    -500.5  -1.1
incl. servicing                     89.276     14.1     90.484  -1 207.6  -1.3
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT       78.850     12.4     79.946  -1 096.2  -1.4
also, euronotes     USD   USD       10.427      1.6     10.538    -111.4  -1.1
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
Municipals          USD   KZT        8.413      1.3      8.537    -124.2  -1.5
incl. face value    USD   KZT        7.214      1.1      7.292     -77.1  -1.1
incl. servicing     USD   KZT        1.198      0.2      1.245     -47.1  -3.8
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD   KZT        3.791      0.6      3.831     -40.5  -1.1
also, face value    USD   KZT        3.426      0.5      3.462     -36.6  -1.1
also, servicing     USD   KZT        0.365      0.1      0.369      -3.9  -1.1
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. Atyrau obl.                                                         -1.8
akimat              USD   KZT        4.622      0.7      4.705     -83.7
also, face value    USD   KZT        3.789      0.6      3.829     -40.5  -1.1
also, servicing     USD   KZT        0.833      0.1      0.876     -43.2  -4.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
TOTAL                              633.473    100.0    667.567 -34 093.9  -5.1
incl. face value                   542.998     85.7    575.838 -32 839.2  -5.7
incl. servicing                     90.475     14.3     91.729  -1 254.7  -1.4
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT   KZT      576.185     91.0    609.667 -33 482.1  -5.5
also, face value    KZT   KZT      496.137     78.3    528.476 -32 338.7  -6.1
also, servicing     KZT   KZT       80.048     12.6     81.191  -1 143.4  -1.4
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. external debt USD   USD       57.288      9.0     57.900    -611.9  -1.1
also, face value    USD   USD       46.862      7.4     47.362    -500.5  -1.1
also, servicing     USD   USD       10.427      1.6     10.538    -111.4  -1.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
 expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of
 the rate of tenge to US dollar.

Equivalents as of September 30, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT133.89 per dollar, as of August 31, 05 - at KZT135.32. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.

Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Amount and structure of debt
                                  ----------------------------           Change
                                              as of      as of          for the
                    *Currency of        Sept 30, 05 Aug 31, 05           period
                    ------------- ----------------- ---------- ----------------
Issuer              issue serviсe   m. USD stake, %     m. USD    th. USD     %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
National Bank       KZT   KZT      1,458.7     30.8    1,671.0 -212,247.2 -12.7
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Ministry of Finance                3,209.7     67.8    3,199.2  +10,548.9  +0.3
incl. face value                   2,542.9     53.7    2,530.5  +12,426.3  +0.5
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT      2,192.9     46.3    2,180.5  +12,426.3  +0.6
also, euronotes     USD   USD        350.0      7.4      350.0          0     0
incl. servicing                      666.8     14.1      668.7   -1,877.5  -0.3
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT        588.9     12.4      590.8   -1,877.5  -0.3
also, euronotes     USD   USD         77.9      1.6       77.9          0     0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Municipals          USD   KZT        62.83      1.3      63.09     -253.8 -0.40
incl. face value    USD   KZT         53.9      1.1       53.9          0     0
incl. servicing     USD   KZT          8.9      0.2        9.2     -253.8  -2.8
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD   KZT         28.3      0.6       28.3          0     0
also, face value    USD   KZT         25.6      0.5       25.6          0     0
also, servicing     USD   KZT        2.728      0.1        2.7          0     0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Atyrau obl.                                                          -0.7
akimat              USD   KZT         34.5      0.7       34.8     -253.8
also, face value    USD   KZT         28.3      0.6       28.3          0     0
also, servicing     USD   KZT          6.2      0.1        6.5     -253.8  -3.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
TOTAL                              4,731.3    100.0    4,933.2 -201,952.2 -4.09
incl. face value                   4,055.6     85.7    4,255.4 -199,820.9  -4.7
incl. servicing                      675.7     14.3      677.9   -2,131.3  -0.3
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT   KZT      4,303.4     91.0    4,505.4 -201,952.2  -4.5
also, face value    KZT   KZT      3,705.6     78.3    3,905.4 -199,820.9  -5.1
also, servicing     KZT   KZT        597.9     12.6      600.0   -2,131.3  -0.4
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. external debt USD   USD        427.9      9.0      427.9          0     0
also, face value    USD   USD        350.0      7.4      350.0          0     0
also, servicing     USD   USD         77.9      1.6       77.9          0     0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
 expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of
 the rate of tenge to US dollar.

According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in September by amounts of floatation was KZT238,537.6 m. (in August - KZT198,319.7 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT269,727.2 m. (KZT222,844.7 m.). September's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT31,189.6 m. Corresponding index of August - negative KZT24,525.0 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed).

In September the Ministry of finance did not float its bonds. The issuer paid face value of bonds and coupons and coupon interests for a total of KZT2,546.6 m. (in August - 5,572.9 m.). September's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT2,546.6 m. (in August - negative KZT5,572.9 m.).

Total September's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is (including municipal bodies) estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT33,770.2 m. Corresponding indicator of August - negative KZT30,735.5 m.

The above data certify that analyzed month a little differed in described sector from July and August. Principal moment here is actual refusal of the National bank to sterilize excess money supply through issue of its notes. Taking into account, that the Ministry of finance the third month refrains from MEKAM issue, GS market lost its importance in the matter of money aggregates regulation. Moreover, increasing (by module) negative net- borrowings balance of Kazakhstan GS issuers says about existing at present expansion of money supply owing to redemption of before issued securities. On the background of autumn escalation foreign currency offer at internal market (and purchase of its considerable part by the head bank for tenge) and low efficiency of rates manipulation, formed situation increases inflation risks. September results show, that this month repo "overnight" rates at KASE were the lowest for the whole history of Kazakhstan market of short money. Institutional investors of the republic have to work in conditions of growing surplus of tenge liquidity with simultaneous deficit of instruments for money investment.

IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty).

[2005-10-05]