ANALYSIS: As of October 1, 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing reached KZT633.5 bn. or $4,731.3 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 05/ - As of October 1, 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT633.5 bn., or equivalent $4,731.3 m. at the rate of KZT133.89 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was fixed for the period from July till September 2005, on MEUJKAM - from October 2004 till September 2005. Within September 1 - 30 of 2005 total debt decreased by KZT34.1 bn. (- 5.10%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 202.0 m. (-4.09%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in August 2005 were -KZT31.6 bn. (-4.50%) or -$218.4 m. (-4.24%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Sept 30, 05 Aug 31, 05 period ------------- ----------------- ---------- --------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 195.311 30.8 226.119 -30 807.3 -13.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 429.749 67.8 432.912 -3 162.4 -0.7 incl. face value 340.473 53.7 342.428 -1 954.9 -0.6 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 293.611 46.3 295.066 -1 454.4 -0.5 also, euronotes USD USD 46.862 7.4 47.362 -500.5 -1.1 incl. servicing 89.276 14.1 90.484 -1 207.6 -1.3 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 78.850 12.4 79.946 -1 096.2 -1.4 also, euronotes USD USD 10.427 1.6 10.538 -111.4 -1.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 8.413 1.3 8.537 -124.2 -1.5 incl. face value USD KZT 7.214 1.1 7.292 -77.1 -1.1 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.198 0.2 1.245 -47.1 -3.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 3.791 0.6 3.831 -40.5 -1.1 also, face value USD KZT 3.426 0.5 3.462 -36.6 -1.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.365 0.1 0.369 -3.9 -1.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau obl. -1.8 akimat USD KZT 4.622 0.7 4.705 -83.7 also, face value USD KZT 3.789 0.6 3.829 -40.5 -1.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.833 0.1 0.876 -43.2 -4.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 633.473 100.0 667.567 -34 093.9 -5.1 incl. face value 542.998 85.7 575.838 -32 839.2 -5.7 incl. servicing 90.475 14.3 91.729 -1 254.7 -1.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 576.185 91.0 609.667 -33 482.1 -5.5 also, face value KZT KZT 496.137 78.3 528.476 -32 338.7 -6.1 also, servicing KZT KZT 80.048 12.6 81.191 -1 143.4 -1.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 57.288 9.0 57.900 -611.9 -1.1 also, face value USD USD 46.862 7.4 47.362 -500.5 -1.1 also, servicing USD USD 10.427 1.6 10.538 -111.4 -1.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of September 30, 05 were calculated at the rate of KZT133.89 per dollar, as of August 31, 05 - at KZT135.32. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Sept 30, 05 Aug 31, 05 period ------------- ----------------- ---------- ---------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 1,458.7 30.8 1,671.0 -212,247.2 -12.7 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,209.7 67.8 3,199.2 +10,548.9 +0.3 incl. face value 2,542.9 53.7 2,530.5 +12,426.3 +0.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,192.9 46.3 2,180.5 +12,426.3 +0.6 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 7.4 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 666.8 14.1 668.7 -1,877.5 -0.3 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 588.9 12.4 590.8 -1,877.5 -0.3 also, euronotes USD USD 77.9 1.6 77.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 62.83 1.3 63.09 -253.8 -0.40 incl. face value USD KZT 53.9 1.1 53.9 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 8.9 0.2 9.2 -253.8 -2.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 28.3 0.6 28.3 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 25.6 0.5 25.6 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 2.728 0.1 2.7 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau obl. -0.7 akimat USD KZT 34.5 0.7 34.8 -253.8 also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.6 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 6.2 0.1 6.5 -253.8 -3.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 4,731.3 100.0 4,933.2 -201,952.2 -4.09 incl. face value 4,055.6 85.7 4,255.4 -199,820.9 -4.7 incl. servicing 675.7 14.3 677.9 -2,131.3 -0.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 4,303.4 91.0 4,505.4 -201,952.2 -4.5 also, face value KZT KZT 3,705.6 78.3 3,905.4 -199,820.9 -5.1 also, servicing KZT KZT 597.9 12.6 600.0 -2,131.3 -0.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 427.9 9.0 427.9 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 7.4 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 77.9 1.6 77.9 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in September by amounts of floatation was KZT238,537.6 m. (in August - KZT198,319.7 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total of KZT269,727.2 m. (KZT222,844.7 m.). September's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market was negative KZT31,189.6 m. Corresponding index of August - negative KZT24,525.0 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). In September the Ministry of finance did not float its bonds. The issuer paid face value of bonds and coupons and coupon interests for a total of KZT2,546.6 m. (in August - 5,572.9 m.). September's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT2,546.6 m. (in August - negative KZT5,572.9 m.). Total September's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is (including municipal bodies) estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT33,770.2 m. Corresponding indicator of August - negative KZT30,735.5 m. The above data certify that analyzed month a little differed in described sector from July and August. Principal moment here is actual refusal of the National bank to sterilize excess money supply through issue of its notes. Taking into account, that the Ministry of finance the third month refrains from MEKAM issue, GS market lost its importance in the matter of money aggregates regulation. Moreover, increasing (by module) negative net- borrowings balance of Kazakhstan GS issuers says about existing at present expansion of money supply owing to redemption of before issued securities. On the background of autumn escalation foreign currency offer at internal market (and purchase of its considerable part by the head bank for tenge) and low efficiency of rates manipulation, formed situation increases inflation risks. September results show, that this month repo "overnight" rates at KASE were the lowest for the whole history of Kazakhstan market of short money. Institutional investors of the republic have to work in conditions of growing surplus of tenge liquidity with simultaneous deficit of instruments for money investment. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not an official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2005-10-05]