ANALYSIS: In September 2005 volume of GS purchase and sale deals

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 4, 05/ - In September 2005 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 173 deals were made in government securities (GS) purchase and sale sector for a total of KZT59,189.6 m. (equivalent of $440.9 m.) or 7.5% of total exchange's turnover of the month (in August - 5.6%). Relative to August 2005 the sector's turnover grew by 13.5% in tenge and by 14.6% in dollar terms. Relative to September 2004 the turnover has decreased by 0.1% in tenge and grew by 0.6% in dollar terms. Statistical indicators of sale-purchase sector in September and turnover's structure are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable figures of the previous month). ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yield to maturity for the buyer, %APR Days ---------------------------- Volume, m KZT Number till maturity min max last WA at market price of deals ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Discounted GS (KZT): MEKKAM, National Bank's notes - 82.3% (84.1%) of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ less than 8 0.50 1.89 0.97 0.89 (1.54) 3,045.1 13 8 - 14 1.20 2.23 1.80 1.45 (2.22) 4,293.3 19 15 - 28 1.00 2.19 1.60 1.95 (2.21) 36,906.6 73 92 - 181 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 ( -) 8.9 1 182 - 364 2.15 2.91 2.58 2.68 (2.60) 4,441.1 16 ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Total 48,695.1 (43,843.7) 122 (84) ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Coupon GS (KZT): MEOKAM, MEUJKAM - 17.6% (15.9%) of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ less than 730 1.75 2.86 2.28 2.21 (0.98) 1,921.9 16 731 - 1095 3.20 4.00 3.20 3.60 (3.73) 920.9 3 1096 - 1460 2.76 4.25 2.76 3.70 (3.49) 1,753.5 7 1461 - 1825 2.76 4.05 4.05 3.84 (3.56) 1,914.0 7 1826 - 2190 3.10 3.20 3.10 3.14 (4.75) 2,509.2 5 over 2191 4.05 8.48 4.83 5.07 (5.13) 1,373.8 7 ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Total 10,393.2 (4,593.1) 45 (27) ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Coupon GS (USD): bonds of Atyrau obl. - 0.2% (0.005%)of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ less than 730 5.50 9.06 5.50 8.90 (6.60) 101.3 6 ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Total 101.3 (2.4) 6 (2) ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- GRANDTOTAL 59,189.6 (52,129.9) 173 (117) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake of the exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals made of Kazakhstan secondary GS market in September 2005 grew to 84.9%. In August it was 75.3%. Activity of GS stock exchange market grew in September slightly. As a main reason of turnover increase IRBIS analysts call activation of primary market, where the National Bank borrowed KZT40.2 bn. more, than in August. This adequately reflected upon turnover of secondary market, as the most traded instrument there were "fresh" notes (remind, that since April 1 of this year the National bank floated only bonds with 28 days circulation term). Deals were made, as a rule, by growing price, as demand in all sectors of GS market considerably exceeded offer. MEKAM secondary market marked in September by minimal increase of sales volume. Bonds more willingly, than in August, were sold by investors of various categories, however their free offer in KASE trade system as usual was absent. As it follows from the above table, GS yield of this type changed in different directions. Especially we would like to note the most short from traded securities. Their cost considerably decreased, this resulted in growth of yield to maturity for buyers. As a whole GS market in September little differed from the market of previous month. It was formed by the same factors. It should only be noted exceptional high liquidity of financial market on tenge, which made instruments of repo sector unattractive. That is why in analyzed month flow of money from this sector to GS market was observed, this positively reflected upon secondary turnover of MEKAM and notes. Prognosis for October - without essential changes. [2005-10-04]