ANALYSIS: In August 2005 volume of transactions in foreign currency on KASE fell by 30.1% to the equivalent of $819.0 m.

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 6, 05/ - In August 2005 volume of foreign currency transactions made on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) has not exceeded the equivalent of USD819.0 m. or KZT110,968.9 m. Relative to July 2005 the volume of transactions has fallen by USD351.9 m. (KZT47,969.3 m.) or by 30.1% in terms of dollar and by 30.2% in terms of tenge. Relative to August 2004 trade volume has grown 1.9 times in terms of dollar and 1.9 times in terms of tenge. The stake of this sector in stock exchange's turnover has fallen from 16.5% in July to 12.0% in August 2005. Total of 3,349 deals (3,621) were made in August 2005 on KASE (here and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses), including: in US dollars on TOD terms - 3,257 (3,498), on TOM terms -70 (117), on SPOT terms - 15 (4); in euros - 1 (0), in Russian ruble - 6 (2). 99.38% of the whole concluded deals volume in August 2005 total turnover of exchange's currency market fell to the stake of deals in US dollar. In previous month the stake was 99.99%. On US dollars the volume of transactions on KASE in August 2005 reached $813.8 m. (KZT110,277.2 m.). To compare, in July 2005 this figure equaled to $1,170.8 m. (KZT158,929.2 m.), in August 2004 - $430.5 m. (KZT58,593.2 m.). In August 2005 tenge was strengthening to dollar. The speed of this process calculated at exchange's weighted average rate of the main session is estimated by the trend of 4.5% APR (July 31, 05 = KZT135.84; August 31, 05 = KZT135.32). In July 2005 tenge was devaluating with the speed of 7.4% APR. Weighted average rate of U.S. dollar to tenge, calculated on deals of the main session in August 2005 is KZT135.53 per unit, on all exchange's deals - 135.51. For July these indicators were KZT135.75 and KZT135.75 per dollar. In euro amount of deals at KASE in August was EURO4.0 m. (KZT669.6 m.). In the previous month deals with this currency were not made. As in August at KASE only one deal with euro was made, there is no essence to analyze change of average weighted exchange rate for this month. On Russian ruble the volume of transactions on KASE in August 2005 was RUB4,600 th. for a total of KZT21.8 m. (in July - RUB1,900 th. for KZT9.0 m.). Judging by change of weighted average exchange rate (July 31, 05 = 4.7380; August 31, 05 = 4.7650), in analyzed month tenge devaluated to ruble with average speed 6.7% APR. August at dollar stock exchange was traditional and as for summer sluggish. Due to absence of marked tendencies in rate dynamics considerable part of turnover shifted to over the counter market. Deals were made in early- formed subhorizontal price channel of consolidation. However at the end of the month there were big volumes of export earnings at KASE, this made dollar rate to gravitate to lower borders of this corridor. We may assume that key influence on behavior of traders made consequences of hurricane in USA. On the one hand, this factor resulted in the next historical maximum prices for oil in the world, on the other - undermined trust to American economy. The last resulted in strengthening of euro and drop of dollar at the world market, and in Kazakhstan, it seems, helped currency traders to make choice relative to primary price development. In addition, implementation of new prudential normative in the opinion of Kazakhstani dealers is able to cause increased demand in tenge in autumn, this will work for increase of USD sales volume at KASE. Based on the above, IRBIS specialists are inclined to forecast in September activation of US dollar market of Kazakhstan and strengthening of tenge positions. [2005-09-06]