ANALYSIS: In August 2005 volume of GS purchase and sale deals on KASE grew by 24.6% to KZT52.1 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 6, 05/ - In August 2005 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 117 deals were made in government securities (GS) purchase and sale sector for a total of KZT52,129.9 m. (equivalent of $384.7 m.) or 5.6% of total exchange's turnover of the month (in July - 4.3%). Relative to July 2005 the sector's turnover grew by 24.6% in tenge and by 24.7% in dollar terms. Relative to August 2004 the turnover has decreased by 9.3% in tenge and by 8.7% in dollar terms. August was the second month of this year, when Ministry of finance has not floated its bonds on organized market. That is why the sector was represented only by GS trade at the secondary exchange market. In July there also were no floatations. Ministry of finance in its notifications to KASE about cancellation of auctions has not stated reason for refusal from floatations. Statistical indicators of sale-purchase sector in August and turnover's structure are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable figures of the previous month). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for the buyer, %APR Days ------------------------------------- Volume, m KZT Number till maturity min max last WA at market price of deals ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------------- ------------------ --------- Discounted GS (KZT): MEKKAM, National Bank's notes - 84.1% (89.0%) of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 1.00 2.01 1.00 1.54 (1.81) 2,462.4 9 8 - 14 1.90 2.42 1.90 2.22 (1.88) 8,661.8 11 15 - 28 1.10 2.52 1.50 2.21 (2.14) 32,018.6 61 29 - 36 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 (2.18) 671.1 1 43 - 56 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 (2.31) 16.9 1 182 - 364 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 (2.52) 12.8 1 ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------------- ------------------ --------- Total 43,843.7(37,237.3) 84 (130) ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------------- ------------------ --------- Coupon GS (KZT): MEOKAM - 15.9% (11.0%) of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 0.50 1.47 0.82 0.98 (2.33) 525.6 3 731 - 1095 3.00 4.50 3.00 3.73 (3.42) 429.6 2 1096 - 1460 3.00 4.50 3.00 3.49 (4.00) 665.5 4 1461 - 1825 2.75 4.08 2.75 3.56 (4.05) 4,081.2 14 1826 - 2190 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 (4.50) 422.8 1 over 2191 4.04 5.69 5.69 5.13 (4.22) 2,159.1 7 ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------------- ------------------ --------- Total 8,283.7(4,593.1) 31 (27) ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------------- ------------------ --------- Coupon GS (USD): bonds of Astana - 0.005% (0.01%)of purchase-sale sector's turnover -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 6.00 7.01 6.00 6.60 (6.58) 2.4 2 ------------- ------- ------- ------------------ --------- Total 2.4 (4.9) 2 (4) ------------- ------- ------- ------- ------------- ------------------ --------- GRANDTOTAL 52,129.9(41,835.2) 117 (161) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of the exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals made of Kazakhstan secondary GS market in August 2005 decreased to 75.3%. In July it was 76.6%. The above data in the table certify about non-fundamental change of GS's turnover structure at KASE in August relative to July. Growth of turnover IRBIS specialists connect with action of the following local factor. As it is known, free offer of government bonds at exchange market last months practically is absent. However in August, when repo "overnight" rates reached maximum, two commercial banks offered big GS blocks by interesting price, which provided buyers attractive yield. As a result volume of exchange deals only with notes of the National bank on August 19 reached KZT12.5 bn. Definitely GS secondary market in August periodically was activated by floatation of new notes. But auctions have not affected exchange trade as it was before. Pension funds now unwillingly redeem floated securities at auctions from primary agents of the National bank. In the opinion of IRBIS specialists prognosis for September does not look transparent, as to activate GS market may only MEKAM floatations. However to forecast behavior of the Ministry of finance at present is not possible. [2005-09-06]