ANALYSIS: In August of 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector fell by 1.9% to KZT718.2 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, August 6, 05/ - In August of 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 2,999 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT718.2 bn. or USD5,299.7 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 77.5% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in July of 2005 - 76.0%). In comparison with July of 2005 volume of transactions has fallen by KZT14.1 bn. ($98.2 m.) or by 1.9% (by 1.8% in dollar terms). Relative to August of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by KZT240.3 bn. ($1,789.9 m.) or 1.50 times (1.51 times in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover on KASE in August was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 95.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT686.1 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 91.4% (KZT656.6 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 4.1% (KZT29.5 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 4.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT32.0 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.2% (KZT1.3 bn.), deals in CS - 4.3% (KZT30.8 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in July of 2005 was as follows: autorepo - 95.6% (GS - 93.1%; CS - 2.5%); repo by direct method - 4.4% (GS - 0.4%; CS - 3.9%). The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in August of 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 91.4% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 0.50 0.00 7.00 1.40 1.39 215,969.1 771 66.75 KZT_002 0.50 0.00 5.50 0.70 1.39 25,717.0 62 7.95 KZT_003 0.60 0.10 5.50 0.70 0.71 30,944.0 82 9.56 KZT_007 1.00 0.80 4.00 1.50 1.91 39,668.0 144 12.26 KZT_014 1.70 1.45 4.00 1.90 2.16 8,945.0 59 2.76 KZT_028 2.20 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.39 2,325.0 32 0.72 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 323,568.2 1 150 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 4.1% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ALKS_028 8.00 92.0 1 0.59 ASF_028 6.00 32.0 1 0.21 ATFBb4_001 1.00 1.00 4.30 4.00 2.61 1,759.0 10 11.33 ATFBb4_007 4.80 4.50 5.90 4.50 4.86 1,160.0 5 7.47 ATFBp8_030 8.00 24.0 1 0.15 BTAIb6_001 2.00 2.00 5.20 5.20 3.58 1,059.0 4 6.82 BTAIb6_003 4.85 4.50 5.25 4.50 4.88 730.0 4 4.70 BTAIb6_007 4.80 4.80 6.90 6.90 5.26 358.0 2 2.31 BTASb4_001 1.75 1.70 4.30 2.50 2.15 3,141.1 16 20.23 BTASb4_007 4.80 4.65 4.80 4.65 4.68 240.0 2 1.55 BTASb4_014 9.00 2.0 1 0.01 BTASb4_030 8.50 215.0 1 1.38 CCBN_001 3.20 3.20 3.50 3.50 3.35 979.0 2 6.31 CCBN_030 9.00 711.0 1 4.58 CSBNb5_001 2.50 50.0 1 0.32 CSBNb5_030 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 90.0 2 0.58 HRLT_014 9.00 7.0 1 0.05 HRLT_028 8.00 2.0 1 0.01 HSBKb_028 7.50 6.00 7.50 6.00 6.97 100.0 2 0.64 HSBKb5_028 6.00 50.0 1 0.32 KKGBp_007 6.90 6.00 6.90 6.00 6.10 620.0 2 3.99 KZIKb1_007 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 120.0 2 0.77 KZIKb1_028 6.20 60.0 1 0.39 KZTCb1_028 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.77 142.0 2 0.91 KZTK_360 8.40 300.0 1 1.93 KZTOe1_001 1.00 1.00 4.00 4.00 2.50 2.0 2 0.01 KZTOe1_007 6.00 32.0 1 0.21 ORDB_001 6.00 60.0 1 0.39 ORDB_028 10.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 9.05 162.0 2 1.04 ORDBp_001 4.00 3.90 4.00 4.00 3.97 183.0 3 1.18 ORDBp_003 4.00 113.0 1 0.73 PRKRb1_007 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 28.0 2 0.18 TEBN_010 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 51.0 3 0.33 TEBN_030 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 24.0 1 0.15 TSBNb1_007 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 75.0 1 0.48 TSBNb1_014 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 150.0 2 0.97 TXBNb1_014 7.50 30.0 1 0.19 TXBNb2_001 4.00 100.0 1 0.64 TXBNb2_007 5.95 100.0 1 0.64 TXBNb2_028 6.20 60.0 1 0.39 UTMK_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 462.0 2 2.98 VTBN_001 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 160.0 2 1.03 VTBN_007 6.25 6.00 7.50 6.00 6.80 440.0 5 2.83 VTBN_028 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.53 215.0 2 1.38 VTBNb3_028 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 865.0 2 5.57 VTBNb4_001 3.50 95.0 1 0.61 VTBNb4_003 4.90 75.0 1 0.48 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 15,525.2 105 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 0.2% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 3.00 0.55 3.00 0.70 1.81 400.0 4 54.81 6 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 197.1 1 27.01 13 2.50 2.20 2.50 2.20 2.29 132.7 3 18.18 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 729.8 8 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 4.3% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR ------------------------------- Subject Term of ----- ----- ------- -------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ALKSb2 15 4.00 15.0 1 0.10 30 1.00 5.5 1 0.04 92 7.70 4.5 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 25.0 3 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb1 33 11.46 0.2 1 0.001 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb3 1 3.72 3.72 3.72 3.72 233.2 3 1.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb3 92 7.50 40.1 1 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb4 1 3.51 4.26 4.26 3.72 205.1 3 1.35 3 0.90 2.01 2.01 1.34 250.0 2 1.64 6 1.00 10.0 1 0.07 7 5.50 80.0 1 0.52 10 3.72 7.38 3.72 5.00 230.4 3 1.51 11 2.00 51.5 1 0.34 14 4.23 5.50 4.23 4.53 105.6 5 0.69 15 4.06 20.0 1 0.13 30 3.51 104.0 1 0.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,056.5 18 6.93 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb5 7 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 151.5 3 0.99 12 6.00 90.2 1 0.59 29 7.00 2.1 1 0.01 30 7.75 75.3 1 0.49 31 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 418.7 2 2.75 91 7.50 10.0 1 0.07 92 7.50 45.0 1 0.29 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 792.8 10 5.20 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBp 10 5.99 87.5 1 0.57 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBp8 1 2.65 5.0 1 0.03 31 6.00 40.0 1 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 45.0 2 0.29 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb6 1 3.52 299.7 1 1.97 7 2.70 150.0 1 0.98 9 5.25 60.5 1 0.40 14 5.00 100.7 1 0.66 21 6.00 150.3 1 0.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 761.1 5 4.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAS 7 6.00 196.8 1 1.29 17 4.00 70.1 1 0.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 267.0 2 1.75 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb1 1 6.00 6.50 6.00 6.28 412.9 2 2.71 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb4 1 2.56 4.00 4.00 2.58 512.0 2 3.36 7 3.50 610.0 1 4.00 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,122.0 3 7.36 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBN 30 8.99 9.00 9.00 9.00 883.4 2 5.80 31 7.99 73.1 1 0.48 92 10.00 11.01 10.00 10.29 579.1 3 3.80 95 11.01 11.01 11.01 11.01 130.0 2 0.85 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,665.6 8 10.93 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb3 29 7.10 31.4 1 0.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb7 1 5.00 188.0 1 1.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb7 30 7.00 200.4 1 1.31 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb8 2 4.00 19.7 1 0.13 9 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 737.0 3 4.84 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 756.7 4 4.96 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb4 41 8.00 15.7 1 0.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb5 1 2.00 150.0 1 0.98 6 4.01 100.3 1 0.66 7 3.01 100.3 1 0.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 350.6 3 2.30 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HRLT 22 9.17 35.2 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb 30 8.00 23.0 1 0.15 92 8.00 10.1 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 33.1 2 0.22 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb5 94 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 125.0 2 0.82 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKp 7 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 46.0 1 0.30 12 6.19 6.19 6.19 6.19 19.3 2 0.13 17 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 33.4 3 0.22 24 6.08 2.6 1 0.02 25 6.19 6.19 6.19 6.19 39.8 4 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 141.1 11 0.93 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKp 29 6.98 32.6 1 0.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KARMb2 2 4.00 3.0 1 0.02 28 6.00 70.0 1 0.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 73.0 2 0.48 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKAGb1 1 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 60.5 3 0.40 4 4.44 46.3 1 0.30 5 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 28.0 2 0.18 7 5.58 6.26 5.58 5.88 112.3 4 0.74 8 6.78 6.78 6.78 6.78 28.0 2 0.18 13 6.74 40.0 1 0.26 14 6.78 13.5 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 328.5 14 2.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKGBb2 4 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 240.0 3 1.57 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKGBp 1 2.61 139.9 1 0.92 10 3.94 10.0 1 0.07 31 7.96 100.0 1 0.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 249.9 3 1.64 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZALb1 30 7.04 17.0 1 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb1 30 13.00 2.0 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb5 10 5.11 19.4 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 22 2.49 35.2 1 0.23 28 6.00 14.5 1 0.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 49.7 2 0.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZNHb2 1 7.30 3.0 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTCb1 2 5.57 94.9 1 0.62 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTK 1 6.01 6.01 6.01 6.01 58.1 3 0.38 30 7.75 15.0 1 0.10 31 5.00 1.3 1 0.01 90 10.00 1.1 1 0.01 91 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 15.4 4 0.10 92 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 13.3 2 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 104.3 12 0.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTOe1 4 2.00 31.0 1 0.20 92 7.75 40.0 1 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 71.0 2 0.47 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZZN 5 3.99 5.00 3.99 4.37 14.4 2 0.09 9 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 33.9 3 0.22 10 7.39 12.3 1 0.08 17 6.00 8.5 1 0.06 91 7.50 13.1 1 0.09 93 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 15.1 3 0.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 97.4 11 0.64 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNb2 5 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 33.4 2 0.22 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNb4 31 7.80 10.00 10.00 8.17 120.0 2 0.79 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 31 9.50 5.0 1 0.03 32 10.50 45.0 1 0.30 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 50.0 2 0.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDB 5 4.99 25.0 1 0.16 10 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 12.4 2 0.08 14 5.01 150.0 1 0.98 16 6.50 81.6 1 0.54 19 12.00 85.0 1 0.56 30 7.50 10.00 7.50 8.84 17.3 2 0.11 31 9.00 10.50 9.00 10.21 89.5 4 0.59 33 11.50 0.3 1 0.002 39 10.50 13.3 1 0.09 92 10.00 60.0 1 0.39 292 13.62 1.0 1 0.01 363 7.00 400.0 1 2.62 365 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.52 1,071.1 3 7.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 2,006.5 20 13.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDBp 5 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 82.7 4 0.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 19 5.04 11.0 1 0.07 21 6.08 50.0 1 0.33 25 4.87 30.0 1 0.20 29 6.99 16.4 1 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 107.4 4 0.70 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ROSA 114 10.77 42.0 1 0.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ROSAb1 32 9.00 5.0 1 0.03 33 9.27 14.4 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 19.4 2 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TEBN 27 9.00 9.13 9.00 9.08 40.0 2 0.26 30 8.00 10.00 8.49 8.52 33.2 4 0.22 31 9.00 12.00 9.00 10.11 35.4 3 0.23 33 11.50 0.4 1 0.002 39 10.50 155.5 1 1.02 364 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.02 559.2 4 3.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 823.7 15 5.40 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TEBNb2 31 11.50 0.7 1 0.004 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TSBNb1 31 9.54 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TXBNb1 92 8.00 40.8 1 0.27 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TXBNb2 29 7.10 35.4 1 0.23 31 11.46 0.2 1 0.001 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 35.6 2 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UKTCb1 1 2.57 2.0 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UTMK 28 3.01 5.01 3.01 3.45 873.1 2 5.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBN 4 2.95 6.14 2.95 4.18 77.4 2 0.51 14 6.00 6.48 6.48 6.04 29.3 2 0.19 16 3.04 9.2 1 0.06 27 9.01 12.00 9.01 11.00 15.0 2 0.10 30 9.99 11.50 11.50 10.31 1.9 2 0.01 31 7.49 11.52 7.99 8.44 71.4 8 0.47 32 8.99 11.51 8.99 9.25 48.0 4 0.31 39 10.49 11.50 10.49 11.07 175.0 2 1.15 45 7.01 30.0 1 0.20 88 8.50 59.0 1 0.39 92 10.50 20.0 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 536.3 26 9.25 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 30 9.50 30.0 1 0.20 31 10.50 12.00 12.00 11.14 14.1 4 0.09 32 10.50 25.0 1 0.16 39 10.50 75.0 1 0.49 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 144.1 7 0.95 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 32 10.56 105.0 1 0.69 39 10.46 24.1 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 129.1 2 0.85 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb3 1 5.00 15.5 1 0.10 9 6.00 24.5 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 40.0 2 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNp 1 4.99 5.70 5.70 5.16 143.4 2 0.94 3 4.00 100.0 1 0.66 4 2.95 22.6 1 0.15 12 5.97 47.5 1 0.31 15 7.00 24.5 1 0.16 30 8.52 11.50 8.52 9.84 13.5 2 0.09 31 8.49 11.51 11.51 9.93 6.3 2 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 357.8 10 2.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTSKb2 30 9.97 12.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTZLb1 30 9.97 12.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 15,242.2 250 100.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan secondary market in August of 2005 was 99.7%, in July - 99.5%. The analyzed month did not differ much from the previous one. It was notable with very high cost of short money due to a short-term deficit of short-term liquidity of some banks during budget payments. However in most part of the month in automatic "overnight" repo sector - the most representative segment - deals were made at minimum rates. September will hardly differ from August. Specialists of IRBIS forecast the increased volume of USD offer on Kazakhstan's domestic market, that, in their opinion, will promote to growth of the monetary base and some falling of the shortest tenge cost. [2005-09-06]