ANALYSIS: In July of 2005 volume of transactions in foreign currency on KASE fell by 31.2% to the equivalent of $1,170.8 m.

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, August 5, 05/ - In July of 2005 volume of foreign currency transactions made on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) reached the equivalent of USD1,170.8 m. or KZT158,938.2 m. Relative to June of 2005 the volume of foreign currency transactions has fallen by USD530.2 m. (KZT69,603.0 m.) or by 31.2% in terms of dollar and by 30.5% in terms of tenge. In comparison with July of 2004 trade volume has grown 2.4 times in terms of dollar and 2.4 times in terms of tenge. The stake of this sector in stock exchange's turnover has fallen from 18.5% in June to 16.5% in July of 2005. Total of 3,621 deals (4,990) were made in July of 2005 on KASE (here and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses), including: in US dollars on TOD terms - 3,498 (4,969), on TOM terms - 117 (3), on SPOT terms - 4 (11); in euros - 0 (2), in Russian ruble - 2 (5). 99.99% of the whole concluded deals volume in July's total turnover of exchange's currency market fell to the stake of deals in US dollar. In previous month the stake was 99.94%. On US dollars the volume of transactions on KASE in July of 2005 reached $1,170.8 m. (KZT158,929.2 m.). To compare, in June of 2005 this figure equaled to $1,699.9 m. (KZT228,396.9 m.), in July of 2004 - $497.7 m. (KZT67,497.9 m.). In July of 2005 tenge was devaluating against dollar. The speed of this process calculated at exchange's weighted average rate of the main session is estimated by the trend of 7.4% APR (June 30, 05 = KZT134.99; July 31, 05 = KZT135.84). In June tenge was devaluating with the speed of 23.7% APR. Weighted average rate of U.S. dollar to tenge, calculated on deals of the main session in July of 2005 is KZT135.75 per unit, on all exchange's deals - 135.75. For June these indicators were KZT134.47 and KZT134.36 per dollar. In euro deals were not made in July on KASE. In the previous month amount of deals made in this currency reached EUR0.625 m. (KZT101.9 m.). On Russian rouble the volume of transactions on KASE in July of 2005 reached RUB1,900 th. for a total of KZT9.0 m. (in June - RUB9,000 th. for KZT42.3 m.). On the reason only two deals were made in this currency on KASE in July, there is no sense to analyze change of weighted average rate for this month. July has proved main conclusions made by specialists of IRBIS in June. The market, having suddenly strengthened dollar in the previous month, became stable in the analyzed month and was developing within the side trend. The upper border was controlled firmly. The market took it positively and became stable within KZT136.00/135.50 per dollar. At the same time it should be noted that inflation grew in July (0.5% compared to 0.4% in June), but was restrained in the initial phase of acceleration. Due to this, risk of inflation's becoming a deeper process considerably decreased. This reduced tenge devaluation rate from 23.7% in June to 7.4% in July (the rate was calculated at weighted average exchange's rate of the main session of KASE). Now it's possible to say about balance of the currency market and synchronism of dollar ate with inflation risk, which is still present on the domestic market. Judging on these things, specialists of IRBIS assume in August dollar will weaken its positions. It's obvious that market's first reaction to the expected growth of inflation and preventing measures taken by the central bank do not influence much upon the market. [2005-08-05]