ANALYSIS: In June 2005 volume of GS purchase and sale deals on KASE fell by 22.9% to KZT174.2 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 8, 05/ - In June 2005 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 547 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-operations) for a total of KZT23,410.0 m. or $174.2 m. on current rate at the date of deal conclusion. Above amount is 1.9% from total stock exchange of the month's turnover (in May 2005 - 3.3%). In comparison with May 2005 volume of operations decreased in dollar term by $51,858.5 th. (by KZT6,306.8 m.) ot by 22.9% (in tenge term - by 21.2%). Relative to June 2004 volume of trades increased by $33,552.1 th. (KZT4,230.9 m.) or by 23.9% (by 22.1% in tenge term). In June 2005 all deals with CS were concluded in sector oof purchase and sale of secondary market. Structure of exchange market of CS in May 2005 was complicated: stake of primary floatation was 6.6% of operations volume ($14,822.9 th.), sector of purchase and sale - 93.4% ($211,257.9 th.). Drop of CS market activity in the first month of summer IRBIS specialists connect with absence of securities at stock exchange, derivation of banks' funds at US dollar market, and also increased interest of Kazakhstan pension funds to securities of foreign issuers. Last is caused by growth of dollar instruments rates at the world market and unordinary for the last years USD/KZT rate dynamics. SHARES MARKET This segment of CS exchange market was characterized in June by growth of turnover relative to May by 6.4% or by %4.3 m. to equivalent $72.0 m. number of shares, attracted in deals, dropped from May 28 till June 25, amd number of deals grew from 175 to 197. In analyzed month 59.9% deals with shares in number term and 65.5% in volume were agreed (direct). Corresponding indexes of May - 48.6% and 25.2%. 5% from total number of shares, included in trade list of KASE as on May 2005 (i.e. by 4 shares, which were ORDB, TEBNp, BTAS и VTBN), were 72.4% of exchange turnover of the market of stake instruments. Corresponding index of market concentration in May - 75.2%, in April - 78.3%. In top-5 June on volume of carried operations: ORDB (24.5% from turnover of shares), TEBNp (20.9%), BTAS (16.9%), VTBN (10.1%) and TEBN (7.5%). Its positions in top could not keep relative to May no one stake instrument. We remind, that this month first 5 positions of rating were ATFBp8 (31.3%), HSBK (21.2%), CCBN (13.3%), HSBKp1 (9.4%) and ASBNp1 (7.3% from total shares market). On number of carried out deals - index, the most correct reflecting degree of shares liquidity of shares at KASE - in Lune leaders were VTBN (27 deals). After them KKGBp (18), TEBNp (16), TEBN (14) and ZERD (14). In May first 5 positions of this rating were represented by ALKS (22), CCBN (20), HSBK (14), ZERD (14) and KKGBp (14). Out of 25 shares, attracted n deals of June, average weighted prices grew in a month at twelve, decreased at seven, stayed the same at five shares. Price TEBNp was not compared with anything. Despite that trades of these securities at KASE were opened in 1998, first deals with TEBNp were carried out in stock exchange in analyzed month. Leader of growth (in 3.7 times) became AMGZp, drop (by 35.0%) - CCBN. The most growth of value in the first six month of the current year was characterized AMGZp (by 404.7%), KZZN (by 140.4%), BTASp (by 62.9%), KZTK (by 47.1%) and CSBN (by 46.2%). Growth of index KASE_Shares in June (below table) mainly was caused by increase of demand price at AMGZ, KZTK and KZTKp. CORPORATE BOND MARKET Relative to May 2005 volume of deals has decreased by35.5% (by $56,186.9 th.) to $102.3 m. Range of securities involved into deals derceased to 50 (54 - in May), number of deals decreased from 363 to 350. The stake of direct deals was 18.0% of transactions in quantitative expression and 32.2% in volumetric. In May - 8.8% and 6.8%. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of analyzed month (6 securities - ASFIb5, BTAIb4, CCBNb7, KKGBb2, BTASb4 and CSBNb6), formed 47.6% of the exchange's turnover of corporate bonds, including floatation. Similar indicator of market's concentration in May was 51.8%, in April - 47.1%. In June more than USD1 m. characterized by 24 liabilities. (in May - 30). On number of concluded in absolute leaders of June were HSBKb3 (22 deals). Then followed PRKRb1, ALKSb2, TXBNb2, TEBNb2 and KZALb1 0 21 deals. Positions of leader relative to May kept ALKSb2 and TEBNb2, as the most profitable instrument. Out of 50 bonds, attracted in June deals, positive change of average weighted dirty prices 27 securities characterized, negative - 18. Prices of five new bonds were not compared. Leaders of growth (by 4.5%) became KZIKb4, drop (by 12.1%) - ALKSb2. groeth of average daily dirty prices by 5% did not show no one bond, as considerable decrease of process was characterized by 4 securities. On concluded deals yield of bonds to maturity for buyer grew at 18 securities, decreased at 26. Price tends of bonds market were adequately reflected dynamics on indexes KASE_B*. In index term yield of bonds continue to decrease at the growth of their prices (vide the third table). Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market on KASE in June 2005. Change of KASE's securities lists in June 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: ------------- ------------- ------------- Category of ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 47 0 115 +9 55 0 B 39 +1 6 +1 35 +2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 86 +1 121 +10 88 +2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 3 0 0 0 3 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- ВСЕГО 89 +1 121 +10 89 +2 -------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Comparable data on CS trades results at KASE in June 2005 (onlu purchase and sale, including primary floatation) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- --------------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 17,662.1 2,379.4 11 10.14 0 -------- --------------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TEBNp Temirbank JSC 15,027.9 2,018.8 16 8.63 - BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 12,131.4 1,640.9 9 6.96 +23.26 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 11,010.0 1,481.2 15 6.32 +0.12 BTAIb4 BTA Ipoteka JSC 10,736.1 1,439.0 6 6.16 - CCBNb7 Bank CenterCredit JSC 7,398.5 990.9 18 4.25 +2.28 VTBN Valut-Tranzit Bank JSC 7,263.4 973.4 27 4.17 -5.38 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 6,920.3 936.5 11 3.97 +2.60 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 6,668.2 891.9 19 3.83 -2.76 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 5,911.5 797.5 3 3.39 +1.01 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 5,511.5 736.2 2 3.16 -0.66 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 5,468.7 738.1 2 3.14 +1.08 TEBN Temirbank JSC 5,380.1 721.3 14 3.09 -11.24 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 4,293.7 579.6 1 2.46 -2.25 BTAIb6 BTA Ipoteka JSC 4,036.5 542.7 6 2.32 - ASBNb4 Alliance Bank JSC 3,584.5 480.2 5 2.06 +0.39 NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 3,127.6 410.9 2 1.80 +0.06 PRKRb1 Food contract corporation JSC 2,667.0 360.7 21 1.53 +0.91 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 2,355.3 318.4 18 1.35 +2.85 KZNHb2 Kazneftechim JSC 2,211.0 295.4 6 1.27 +2.68 KZTK Kazakhstelecom JSC 2,157.4 289.5 12 1.24 +22.44 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 2,051.0 274.1 9 1.18 -2.89 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,968.2 263.5 6 1.13 +0.20 GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 1,837.6 243.1 3 1.05 +0.49 CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,834.6 248.2 11 1.05 -34.96 BTAIb5 BTA Ipoteka JSC 1,674.6 226.1 3 0.96 -1.97 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 1,575.1 213.0 3 0.90 +1.32 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC" 1,553.5 206.7 4 0.89 -1.29 KKAGb1 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 1,293.9 174.5 4 0.74 +0.65 ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,259.6 170.9 2 0.72 0 TXBNb3 TEXAKABANK JSC 1,158.7 157.0 2 0.67 +0.22 ALKSb2 ALMATY KUS JSC" 1,122.6 151.2 21 0.64 -12.05 AMGZp CNPC - Aktobemunaygas OJSC 1,106.0 150.0 2 0.63 +267.08 KZIKb1 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,098.9 148.9 12 0.63 +0.16 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit Bank JSC 1,087.2 146.6 9 0.62 -1.61 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 965.0 126.9 18 0.55 -5.67 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC" 955.8 129.2 4 0.55 -3.03 VTZL Kazyuvelirprom JSC 899.1 120.0 12 0.52 +15.00 BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 831.4 111.8 2 0.48 +1.29 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 789.7 104.4 1 0.45 0 HSBKp Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 758.5 99.9 1 0.44 +2.23 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 695.7 93.7 2 0.40 -1.51 VTBNb3 Valut-Tranzit Bank JSC 670.5 90.5 1 0.38 - KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 574.7 77.6 2 0.33 +0.65 RAHT Rahat JSC 511.8 69.6 1 0.29 +25.00 HSBKb8 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 494.3 65.9 2 0.28 +2.58 ZERD Zerde JSC 474.9 63.1 14 0.27 +10.75 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 469.9 62.2 4 0.27 -17.02 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 460.2 60.9 22 0.26 +1.79 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 382.3 51.7 1 0.22 - KZZN Kaztsink JSC" 303.6 40.7 8 0.17 -29.58 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 274.5 36.3 2 0.16 +4.52 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 223.3 29.3 1 0.13 -16.20 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARM JSC" 217.7 29.0 7 0.12 +2.55 ARNAb1 ARNA JSC 172.6 23.0 7 0.10 +0.64 HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 130.8 17.5 8 0.08 +10.29 CSBNb2 BANK CASPIAN JSC 120.4 16.0 1 0.07 -0.38 CCBNb1 Bank CenterCredit JSC 120.4 16.1 1 0.07 -6.71 CHFMb1 Khimfarm JSC 94.7 12.8 1 0.05 -0.42 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 94.6 12.8 2 0.05 +15.33 TEBNb Temirbank JSC 85.1 11.5 4 0.05 +1.61 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 50.1 6.6 1 0.03 -1.48 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 47.5 6.4 21 0.03 -3.40 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 45.6 6.2 3 0.03 +33.33 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 43.4 5.8 21 0.02 +2.53 KZALb1 Mining and smelting concern Kazakhaltyn 29.2 3.9 21 0.02 -6.53 ASFIb6 Astana-Finance JSC 28.7 3.9 1 0.02 - KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 27.4 3.7 19 0.02 -1.24 ORDBb1 Corporation Ordabasy JSC 10.8 1.5 1 0.01 +1.22 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 9.8 1.3 1 0.01 +0.88 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 8.9 1.2 2 0.01 -3.89 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 4.0 0.5 6 0.002 +46.20 KZCRp TNC Kazchrome JSC 0.9 0.1 3 0.001 0 ALKZp Aluminum Kazakhstan JSC 0.3 0.0 2 <0.001 0 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 0.0 0.0 1 <0.001 +0.70 -------- --------------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 75 174,222.3 23,410.0 547 100.0 - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in May of 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 31.05.05 4,873.5 300.27 6,399.5 7.45 175.81 12,512.0 01.06.05 4,906.4 299.12 6,419.3 7.51 175.87 9,924.9 02.06.05 4,850.3 295.66 6,512.2 7.45 176.90 6,626.1 03.06.05 4,796.1 301.44 6,495.7 7.46 176.24 1,045.3 06.06.05 4,762.7 301.29 6,577.7 7.47 176.29 3,703.3 07.06.05 4,757.6 301.60 6,573.4 7.45 176.41 1,772.3 08.06.05 4,749.0 297.35 6,567.7 7.46 176.37 2,992.5 09.06.05 4,751.8 298.81 6,666.2 7.45 176.47 2,324.3 10.06.05 4,775.6 305.56 6,654.6 7.45 176.86 3,901.4 13.06.05 4,751.8 301.58 6,653.8 7.46 176.81 13,141.0 14.06.05 4,744.5 303.68 6,650.8 7.45 176.88 5,852.5 15.06.05 4,931.2 309.39 6,645.0 7.50 176.64 4,074.2 16.06.05 4,951.4 314.34 6,655.2 7.49 176.70 5,320.2 17.06.05 5,001.5 299.76 6,663.5 7.42 176.90 1,443.9 20.06.05 4,682.1 301.90 6,658.3 7.39 177.20 9,072.5 21.06.05 4,635.9 307.59 6,648.6 7.42 177.02 7,093.6 22.06.05 4,604.0 306.79 6,653.6 7.38 177.33 9,322.2 23.06.05 4,611.2 308.61 6,661.3 7.38 177.38 3,451.1 24.06.05 4,680.0 309.98 6,669.0 7.38 177.39 11,634.7 27.06.05 4,747.5 311.98 6,676.2 7.43 177.14 1,924.0 28.06.05 4,807.5 323.34 6,670.0 7.44 177.22 22,150.2 29.06.05 4,876.3 323.81 6,714.7 7.38 177.67 15,302.6 30.06.05 4,897.3 311.87 6,776.5 7.42 177.43 32,149.6 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +23.8 +11.61 +377.0 -0.03 +1.62 , +0.5% +3.9% +5.9% -0.4% +0.9% , ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations on KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2005-07-08]