ANALYSIS: In June of 2005 volume of GS purchase and sale deals on KASE fell by 20.7% to KZT58.9 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 7, 05/ - In June of 2005 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 235 deals were made in government securities (GS) purchase and sale sector for a total of KZT58,905.6 m. (equivalent of $438.7 m.) or 4.8% of total exchange's turnover of the month (in May - 8.2%). In comparison with May of 2005 the sector's turnover has decreased by 20.7% in tenge and by 22.2% in dollar terms. Relative to June of 2004 the turnover has decreased 2.6 times in tenge and 2.5 times in dollar terms. In primary market sector an auction on MEKKAM-12 of the 84th issue (KZK1KM120844, MKM012_0084, KZT100, KZT18,495.0 m.; June 29, 05 - June 29, 06) was held. Demand for bonds reached KZT54,325.5 m., having exceeded announced issue volume (KZT18.0 bn.) 3 times. Bonds were offered at 2.50 - 2.88% APR, while weighted average yield was 2.75% APR. In the secondary market purchase-sale sector 187 deals were made for a total of KZT40,905.6 m. Relative to May of 2005 the sector's turnover has decreased by 29.8% in tenge and by 30.9% in dollar terms. Statistical indicators of sale-purchase sector in June and turnover's structure are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable figures of the previous month). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for the buyer, %APR Days ------------------------------- Volume, m KZT Number till maturity min max last WA at market price of deals ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Discounted GS (KZT): MEKKAM, National Bank's notes 93.2% (95.4%) of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 0.66 2.30 1.15 1.58 (1.36) 5,133.8 30 8 - 14 1.50 2.22 2.04 2.02 (1.53) 1,672.2 16 15 - 28 1.70 2.91 1.80 2.29 (2.50) 26,399.1 82 29 - 36 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 (2.46) 34.9 1 37 - 42 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 (2.50) 4.7 1 43 - 56 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 (2.55) 111.9 1 57 - 63 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 (2.49) 13.9 1 64 - 91 2.20 3.34 2.20 2.45 (2.80) 862.2 11 182 - 364 2.40 2.90 2.40 2.62 (3.19) 2,394.2 14 over 365 2.46 2.51 2.46 2.49 ( -) 1,488.9 5 ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Total 38,115.9 (55,567.1) 162 (151) ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Coupon GS (KZT): MEOKAM 6.8% (4.6%) of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 0.58 3.49 2.87 2.70 (3.42) 323.6 7 731 - 1095 3.13 3.61 3.60 3.20 (3.75) 1,240.9 9 1096 - 1460 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 (3.90) 41.9 2 1461 - 1825 3.75 5.11 3.75 4.38 (4.55) 990.9 6 over 2191 4.05 4.05 4.05 4.05 ( -) 192.3 1 ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- Total 2,789.7 (2,666.2) 25 (38) ------------- ---- ---- ---- ------------- ------------------- --------- GRANDTOTAL 40,905.6 (58,262.9) 187 (191) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes: for euronotes (fourth issue) volumes have been calculated at weighted average USD/KZT rate of the Exchange. In June of 2005 stake of the exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals made of Kazakhstan secondary GS market decreased to 75.8%. In May it was 81.6%. Money of banks (precisely they mainly support liquidity of GS on KASE's secondary market) were taken to the work with USD. As a result demand for short securities fell down that resulted in growth of their yield and falling of the turnover. Mid-term bonds sector was still inactive. Pension funds are restructuring their portfolios in favor of foreign securities. This formed the volume of MEOKAM offer on the domestic market, which supported the turnover on the previous month's level. However sellers' incompliance restrains this sector's potential. Deals are made only at the growing price that predetermined falling of MEOKAM yield for their buyers. Specialists of IRBIS think no fundamental changes will occur on GS market in July. Securities turnover may grow a bit. However it's not excluded that money of market's participants will be more willingly involved into the work with repo instruments with US dollar and corporate bonds. [2005-07-07]