ANALYSIS: In June of 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector grew by 34.1% to KZT925.4 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 6, 05/ - In June of 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 3,522 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT925.4 bn. or USD6,903.9 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 74.9% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in May of 2005 - 76.5%). In comparison with May of 2005 volume of transactions has grown by KZT235.4 bn. ($1,655.4 m.) or by 34.1% (by 31.5% in dollar terms). Relative to June of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by KZT353.6 bn. ($2,709.8 m.) or 1.62 times (1.65 times in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover on KASE in June was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 96.8% of the sector's turnover (KZT895.9 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 95.4% (KZT883.2 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 1.4% (KZT12.7 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 3.2% of the sector's turnover (KZT29.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.7% (KZT6.1 bn.), deals in CS - 2.5% (KZT23.4 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in May of 2005 was as follows: autorepo - 97.2% (GS - 95.7%; CS - 1.5%); repo by direct method - 2.8% (GS - 0.8%; CS - 2.0%). The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in June of 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 95.4% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 0.50 0.08 15.00 3.80 2.03 392,714.2 1,375 85.43 KZT_002 0.80 0.30 9.00 1.50 1.87 19,597.0 53 4.26 KZT_003 0.50 0.50 3.50 1.10 1.29 10,935.0 22 2.38 KZT_007 1.00 0.90 6.25 3.00 2.29 31,546.0 71 6.86 KZT_014 1.60 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.64 3,598.0 18 0.78 KZT_028 2.20 1.80 2.50 2.20 2.12 1,305.0 31 0.28 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 459,695.3 1,570 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 1.4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASFI_028 7.00 37.0 1 0.59 ATFBb4_001 4.50 4.00 4.75 4.25 4.25 1,700.0 9 27.28 ATFBb4_003 4.25 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.37 400.0 2 6.42 ATFBb4_030 7.50 200.0 1 3.21 BTASb4_030 8.50 210.0 1 3.37 CCBN_001 5.00 5.00 8.40 8.40 7.21 1,617.0 5 25.95 CCBN_014 8.40 320.0 1 5.14 HRLT_028 7.50 7.50 8.50 8.50 8.00 20.0 3 0.32 HSBKb_028 6.00 6.00 7.50 7.50 6.95 95.0 2 1.52 HSBKb5_028 7.00 150.0 1 2.41 KZIKb1_003 5.00 60.0 1 0.96 KZTCb1_028 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 95.0 2 1.52 KZTK_360 8.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 8.50 400.0 2 6.42 ORDB_001 3.80 3.60 3.80 3.60 3.70 200.0 2 3.21 ORDB_003 3.20 100.0 1 1.60 PRKRb1_007 5.50 5.50 5.60 5.60 5.57 45.0 3 0.72 ROSA_030 7.00 25.0 1 0.40 TEBN_030 7.00 9.0 1 0.14 TSBNb1_007 5.50 5.50 5.60 5.60 5.57 225.0 3 3.61 TXBNb1_014 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.30 50.0 2 0.80 TXBNb2_028 7.50 58.0 1 0.93 VTBN_028 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.53 215.0 2 3.45 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 6,231.0 47 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 0.7% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 0.85 0.80 3.51 3.51 1.82 1,813.7 9 55.28 2 1.99 1.00 1.99 1.00 1.20 499.3 2 15.22 3 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 197.0 1 6.00 7 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 197.0 1 6.00 8 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 180.0 1 5.49 9 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 30.0 1 0.91 10 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 197.0 1 6.00 28 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 150.0 3 4.57 31 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 16.9 1 0.51 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 3,280.9 20 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 2.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Subject Term of ------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- AMGZp 7 7.00 4.1 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASBNb4 1 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 72.0 3 0.48 2 3.00 23.4 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 99.5 5 0.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASFI 29 8.00 4.4 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ASFIb5 4 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 2.2 2 0.01 10 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 2.2 2 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 4.4 4 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb2 1 11.00 5.4 1 0.04 14 5.00 11.5 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 16.8 2 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb3 30 1.95 48.0 1 0.32 31 2.47 10.6 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 58.6 2 0.39 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb4 1 10.00 50.0 1 0.33 3 1.16 4.00 1.16 2.58 520.0 4 3.44 5 2.50 260.0 1 1.72 10 3.50 60.0 1 0.40 13 3.03 200.0 1 1.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,090.0 8 7.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBb5 30 3.50 413.0 1 2.73 32 5.00 300.0 1 1.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 713.0 2.0 4.72 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ATFBp 63 7.50 77.0 1 0.51 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb4 1 2.99 533.0 1 3.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb5 5 5.00 400.0 1 2.65 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTAIb6 32 5.00 80.8 1 0.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb1 6 3.00 79.8 1 0.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- BTASb4 2 2.00 1.7 1 0.01 15 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 530.0 2 3.51 30 2.00 34.0 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 565.7 9 3.74 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBN 1 3.35 24.2 1 0.16 4 4.98 5.02 4.98 4.99 90.1 5 0.60 30 3.01 1.7 1 0.01 31 4.99 5.01 5.01 5.01 343.7 2 2.27 183 10.00 250.0 1 1.65 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 709.7 10 4.70 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CCBNb7 1 3.50 7.75 7.75 6.73 140.8 4 0.93 2 5.00 7.00 7.00 6.99 258.0 2 1.71 5 5.00 102.5 1 0.68 7 5.00 6.15 5.00 5.84 16.4 3 0.11 11 5.04 6.15 5.04 5.99 113.9 2 0.75 91 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 523.6 3 3.47 92 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 492.7 3 3.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,648.0 18 10.91 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb4 14 5.30 11.8 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- CSBNb5 4 2.80 100.6 1 0.67 5 2.80 100.6 1 0.67 20 4.00 200.1 1 1.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 401.4 3 2.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- DNBN 92 12.00 70.0 1 0.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HRLT 30 10.34 12.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBK 361 7.50 42.0 1 0.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb 29 8.00 23.0 1 0.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb2 10 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 16.6 2 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKb8 30 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 50.6 2 0.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- HSBKp 4 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 58.8 4 0.39 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KARMb2 11 1.15 100.0 1 0.66 30 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 183.6 2 1.22 31 2.00 50.0 1 0.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 333.6 4 2.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKAGb1 10 1.60 7.98 1.60 4.79 239.6 6 1.59 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KKGBp 61 7.51 100.0 1 0.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb1 29 13.00 2.0 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb4 30 1.95 0.4 1 0.00 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb5 30 2.43 19.4 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 31 2.00 35.0 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZNHb2 6 7.82 20.0 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTCb1 32 5.00 170.3 1 1.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTK 7 5.50 77.0 1 0.51 63 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 175.4 2 1.16 365 11.00 3,984.6 1 26.37 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 4,237.1 4 28.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTKp 29 7.00 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZTOe1 14 2.00 31.0 1 0.21 361 6.00 42.0 1 0.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 73.0 2 0.48 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- KZZN 29 7.00 2.0 1 0.01 63 6.00 10.0 1 0.07 183 8.00 6.0 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 18.0 3 0.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNb4 3 4.01 101.0 1 0.67 7 4.00 100.0 1 0.66 14 7.00 100.0 1 0.66 30 10.00 20.0 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 321.0 4 2.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 30 9.50 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDB 1 14.05 14.05 14.05 14.05 133.1 5 0.88 3 5.04 5.04 5.04 5.04 38.5 2 0.25 4 5.01 5.01 5.01 5.01 58.2 6 0.39 9 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 19.6 4 0.13 29 7.50 10.50 7.50 9.56 30.6 3 0.20 46 8.01 3.5 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 283.5 21 1.88 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- ORDBb1 29 9.00 15.0 1 0.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- PRKRb1 92 8.00 27.6 1 0.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 5 4.22 51.9 1 0.34 14 5.06 6.9 1 0.05 21 4.84 7.0 1 0.05 30 7.51 101.6 1 0.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 167.4 4 1.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TEBN 29 3.00 10.50 3.00 9.78 201.3 5 1.33 30 3.00 10.50 8.00 8.71 59.2 5 0.39 92 8.50 14.0 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 274.5 11 1.82 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TSBNb1 30 9.49 5.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TXBNb2 7 5.74 20.1 1 0.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- UTMKp 19 6.49 4.9 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBN 1 2.21 50.3 1 0.33 2 3.32 3.42 3.32 3.34 32.3 2 0.21 10 5.02 5.20 5.02 5.17 71.9 2 0.48 14 6.00 2.0 1 0.01 27 7.49 7.0 1 0.05 28 4.03 8.51 4.03 7.31 229.4 4 1.52 29 9.00 12.00 9.00 10.98 198.0 4 1.31 30 3.00 10.04 3.00 9.48 286.8 8 1.90 31 7.51 10.52 10.01 10.19 155.9 4 1.03 32 7.50 11.51 7.50 8.35 9.4 2 0.06 50 5.00 8.19 5.00 6.60 260.0 2 1.72 74 10.45 119.6 1 0.79 88 10.00 135.7 1 0.90 94 8.00 160.0 1 1.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,718.3 34 11.37 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 1 3.50 100.0 1 0.66 29 9.00 10.50 9.00 10.14 112.3 3 0.74 30 10.50 7.7 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- Subtotal 220.0 5 1.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 29 10.52 24.1 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 15,110.7 196 100.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan secondary market in June of 2005 was 98.6%, in May - 98.9%. The first summer month has shown the considerable activation on the repo market. Specialists of IRBIS explain it by the only factor - a sudden growth of transactions in US dollar due to growth of demand for USD. Almost all Kazakhstan's banks started active purchasing USD in June on KASE. As a result the market is overheated and there are problems concerning short- term tenge liquidity of some banks in tax payment period. The problems were traditionally solved on the repo market. The high need in tenge resulted in growth of TONIA on June 23 to 9.19% APR - the highest for latest nine months, and weighted average value of this indicator in June grew to 2.03% APR from 0.95% APR in May. The high cost of the shortest money brought additional resources of market's participants to the analyzed sector. The most interesting thing in the forecast of the repo market for July is the National Bank's refusal to make direct repo transactions on KASE since July 1. Specialists of IRBIS think this is not to influence upon market's turnover considerably and, it's doubtless, it will result in abrupt growth of rates volatility. As the whole without the National Bank's regulating role price of the shortest money is to grow, that lets expect more active trading in repo instruments on KASE in the summer. [2005-07-06]