ANALYSIS: In May of 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector fell by 10.5% to KZT690.0 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 3, 05/ - In May of 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 2,803 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT690.0 bn. or USD5,248.6 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 76.5% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in April of 2005 - 82.4%). In comparison with April of 2005 volume of transactions has fallen by KZT80.9 bn. ($620.7 m.) or by 10.5% (by 10.6% in dollar terms). Relative to May of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by KZT291.5 bn. ($2,341.8 m.) or 1.7 times (1.8 times in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover on KASE in May was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 97.2% of the sector's turnover (KZT670.4 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 95.7% (KZT660.2 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 1.5% (KZT10.2 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 2.8% of the sector's turnover (KZT19.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.8% (KZT5.6 bn.), deals in CS - 2.0% (KZT14.0 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in April of 2005 was as follows: autorepo - 96.7% (GS - 94.4%; CS - 2.3%); repo by direct method - 3.3% (GS - 0.8%; CS - 2.5%). The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in April of 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 95.7% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 1.31 0.05 4.50 0.15 0.95 283,815.2 1,032 87.28 KZT_002 2.00 0.30 5.00 0.35 1.01 12,674.0 23 3.90 KZT_003 1.00 0.50 1.95 1.00 0.90 5,256.0 12 1.62 KZT_007 2.00 0.80 2.50 1.20 1.09 20,944.0 61 6.44 KZT_014 1.50 1.00 2.00 1.40 1.49 1,231.0 10 0.38 KZT_028 2.60 2.00 2.60 2.20 2.15 1,254.0 26 0.39 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 325,174.2 1,164 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 1.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASFIb5_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 590.0 2 12.23 BTASb4_014 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 1,060.0 4 21.96 BTASb4_030 8.50 199.0 1 4.12 CCBN_030 8.40 8.40 8.40 8.40 8.40 521.0 2 10.80 CSBNb5_001 3.00 150.0 1 3.11 CSBNb5_007 5.25 185.0 1 3.83 CSBNb5_014 7.00 185.0 1 3.83 HRLT_001 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 5.34 293.0 2 6.07 HRLT_003 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.60 492.0 2 10.19 HRLT_028 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.59 11.0 2 0.23 HSBKb_028 6.50 6.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 80.0 2 1.66 HSBKb5_028 6.50 150.0 1 3.11 HSBKp_007 8.20 126.0 1 2.61 KZTCb1_028 7.00 40.0 1 0.83 ORDB_001 3.00 80.0 1 1.66 ORDB_007 7.00 43.0 1 0.89 ROSA_014 10.00 7.00 10.00 7.00 8.30 53.0 2 1.10 TXBNb1_014 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 60.0 2 1.24 TXBNb2_028 7.00 7.00 7.30 7.30 7.20 63.0 2 1.31 VTBN_028 10.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.69 325.0 5 6.73 VTBNb1_001 3.00 40.0 1 0.83 VTBN_028 9.00 80.0 1 1.66 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 4,826.1 38 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 0.8% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 0.80 0.25 1.80 0.25 0.75 1,460.0 15 53.27 2 1.10 1.10 3.25 3.25 2.17 200.0 2 7.30 3 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 100.0 1 3.65 4 1.00 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.75 200.0 2 7.30 5 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 0.88 200.0 2 7.30 7 0.70 0.70 2.00 1.00 1.13 265.0 3 9.67 9 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 100.0 1 3.65 25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 46.0 2 1.68 26 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 20.0 1 0.73 27 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 150.0 3 5.47 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 2,741.0 32 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 2.0% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR ------------------------------- Subject Term of ----- ----- ------- -------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKS 12 6.08 27.2 1 0.40 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKSb2 1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 13.6 2 0.20 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASBNb1 31 11.49 0.2 1 0.002 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASBNb4 1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 382.8 4 5.58 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASFI 31 8.00 4.4 1 0.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASFIb5 10 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 24.2 2 0.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb4 1 3.03 100.0 1 1.46 4 3.50 200.0 1 2.92 7 6.00 200.0 1 2.92 13 2.99 3.0 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 503.0 4 7.33 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- BTAS 14 6.00 2.8 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- BTASb4 30 2.00 2.0 1 0.03 61 7.50 110.9 1 1.62 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 112.9 2 1.65 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBN 1 3.44 5.34 5.17 4.10 27.5 3 0.40 4 4.37 10.2 1 0.15 5 3.20 30.1 1 0.44 25 6.44 5.0 1 0.07 91 10.99 11.13 10.99 11.07 300.0 3 4.37 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 372.9 9 5.44 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb7 1 4.00 58.7 1 0.86 60 7.00 200.4 1 2.92 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 259.1 2 3.78 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CSBNb2 90 3.00 154.9 1 2.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CSBNb5 4 4.00 184.0 1 2.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HRLT 33 9.40 12.0 1 0.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBK 12 7.04 4.2 1 0.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb 31 8.00 23.0 1 0.34 33 8.50 45.1 1 0.66 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 68.1 2 0.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb2 32 5.00 41.6 1 0.61 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKp 14 2.98 175.5 1 2.56 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KARMb2 1 0.90 100.0 1 1.46 30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 403.2 2 5.88 31 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 11.0 3 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 514.2 6 7.50 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKAGb1 14 7.20 8.7 1 0.13 31 2.52 8.01 8.01 5.01 182.9 8 2.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 191.6 9 2.79 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKGBb2 7 3.00 30.4 1 0.44 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb1 31 13.00 2.0 1 0.03 92 7.80 100.0 1 1.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 102.0 2 1.49 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb4 33 1.91 0.3 1 0.004 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb5 33 1.99 20.7 1 0.30 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 33 1.99 11.0 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZNHb2 14 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 24.0 2 0.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTKp 31 15.00 8.5 1 0.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZZN 24 5.01 3.1 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NFBN 92 5.93 200.0 1 2.92 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NRBNb4 31 10.00 20.0 1 0.29 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 32 9.50 5.0 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDB 3 2.97 18.8 1 0.27 17 3.02 3.02 3.02 3.02 56.0 2 0.82 31 10.00 11.50 10.00 10.04 9.6 2 0.14 32 10.51 13.3 1 0.19 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 97.6 6 1.42 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBb1 31 9.00 15.0 1 0.22 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 28 6.14 100.9 1 1.47 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ROSA 184 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 193.4 3 2.82 365 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 77.5 4 1.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 270.8 7 3.95 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBN 0 8.00 18.3 1 0.27 9 1.09 30.0 1 0.44 14 3.00 150.0 1 2.19 25 7.75 5.0 1 0.07 31 3.00 11.50 10.01 7.48 70.8 8 1.03 33 2.92 12.00 10.50 9.53 218.9 6 3.19 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 492.9 18 7.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBNb2 32 11.50 0.7 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBNb3 90 3.00 66.7 1 0.97 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TSBN 59 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 2.0 2 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TSBNb1 32 9.47 5.0 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TXBNb2 25 6.57 20.0 1 0.29 32 11.51 0.2 1 0.003 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 20.2 2 0.29 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TXBNb3 2 6.32 6.84 6.84 6.51 197.1 2 2.87 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VITAb4 90 9.01 99.9 1 1.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBN 1 3.32 10.27 3.32 9.11 120.0 2 1.75 4 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.87 500.0 5 7.29 7 4.56 10.0 1 0.15 14 6.00 2.0 1 0.03 20 7.01 20.0 1 0.29 26 8.51 80.5 1 1.17 27 8.48 8.48 8.48 8.48 148.6 2 2.17 29 7.51 22.0 1 0.32 31 6.99 11.99 6.99 9.39 26.8 5 0.39 32 7.50 11.51 9.00 8.66 92.7 5 1.35 33 8.01 11.51 10.49 10.16 491.3 10 7.16 88 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 109.9 2 1.60 92 9.00 20.0 1 0.29 111 9.01 1.0 1 0.01 124 9.01 9.01 9.01 9.01 9.0 2 0.13 185 9.00 41.0 1 0.60 215 8.50 140.0 1 2.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,834.7 42 26.74 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 31 9.50 30.0 1 0.44 32 8.00 2.8 1 0.04 33 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 82.7 2 1.21 88 8.50 40.0 1 0.58 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 155.5 5 2.27 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 33 10.47 24.1 1 0.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNp 27 8.48 1.4 1 0.02 33 8.01 1.8 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 3.3 2 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 6,860.5 158 100.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan secondary market in May of 2005 was 98.9%, in April - 99.3%. Difference of April from May is that May demonstrated an exceptional richness of the market with free tenge. As the result weighted average "overnight" repo rate in automatic repo sector, which was calculated on exchange's all deals of the month (first table), fell to 0.95% APR from 2.86% APR in April. TONIA indicator in May stopped reacting to the schedule of budget payments, and the exceptionally low cost of the shortest tenge and absence of need in them resulted in money outflow from the sector. Specialists of IRBIS think that growth of short-term liquidity on the financial market this time was caused by changing of the tactics of the National Bank, which in April refused full refinancing of its debt through new notes issue. Increasing of its positions on the repo market in April by 20.1% could not entirely neutralize the big volume of notes repayment that resulted in excessive liquidity. Specialists of IRBIS assume approximately from the middle of May the National Bank came back to the old scheme of sterilization. Its position on the repo market in this month fell by 7% (that also negatively influenced upon the turnover of exchange's repo market), and volume of notes issue grew by 10.5%. However we see consequences of that in June already. It's notable that free money in May were pushed out from the repo sector mainly to CS market, where there was a considerable growth of trading activity in the analyzed month. [2005-06-03]