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Market and Company News
09.03.2005 11:08

ANALYSIS: In February of 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 34.2% to $117.9 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 9, 05/ - In February of 2005 at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 420 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT15,348.5 m. or $117.9 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 2.0% of monthly exchange turnover (in January 2005 - 2.9%).

In comparison with January of 2005 volume of transactions has grown by $61.3 m. (KZT8.0 bn.) or by 34.19% (by 34.18% in terms of tenge). Relative to February of 2004 volume of transactions has increased by $43.4 m. (KZT5.0 m.) or 1.6 times (1.5 times in terms of tenge).

Structure of CS turnover at KASE in February is presented in the following way: 100% of all conducted deals fell to the stake of purchase and sale sector. Structure of exchange's CS market in January of 2005 was as follows: the stake of primary offerings was 10.4% of transactions volume ($18,554.4 th.), purchase and sale sector - 89.6% ($160,653.8 th.).

SHARE MARKET

Volume of deals volume in this segment rose in February 1.8 times or by $16.5 m to the equivalent of $38.9 m. Number of shares involved into deals in January fell from 25 to 24, and number of deals grew from 162 to 250.

In analyzed period 34.4% of deals in shares in quantitative expression and 75.9% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of January - 51.9% and 83.3%.

Statistical characteristics of share market can be also described by parameters of market's concentration. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of February 2005 (i.e. 4 shares - CCBN, ALKS, ASFI, VTBN), formed 51.9% of exchange's turnover. Similar indicator of January - 73.7%, December of the last year - 61.4%.

Among favorites there were common shares of Bank CenterCredit JSC (CCBN, 17.0% of share turnover, 20 deals) and common shares of Valyut- Tranzit-bank JSC (TBN, 10.7%, 16 deals). The "top-5" in February also comprised ALKS (12.5%), ASFI (11.6%) and UTMK (8.8%). To remind, in January 5 positions of the rating belonged to CCBN (27.9%), VTBN (21.8%), ALKS (16.8%), HRLT (7.2%) and KKGBp (5.7% of the whole share market).

On the number of executed deals, the indicator that adequately reflects security's liquidity, in February ASFI (83 deals) was the leader. It followed by KKGBp (40), CCBN (20), VTBN (16) and NFBN (15). In January first five positions of the rating comprised KKGBp (45), VTBN (27), CCBN (22), ALKS (11) and HRLT (10).

Within the month weighted average daily prices of 10 shares out of 24 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 12 fell, prices of 2 shares remained on the same level. BTAS showed the largest growth rate (34.7%), the most rapid fall was that of HSBK (99.4%). KASE_Shares index fell within the month by 0.6% due to negative change of demand prices of ASFI, K HSBK, KZTK, KZZN, KKGBp, ROSA, TEBN, VTBN and VTBNp.

In IRBIS analysts opinion ASFI was the most attractive equity investment this month. Trading in these shares involved a lot of disputes. Participants could witness the work of retail investors, boosting shares package by others and competition between brokers for the ownership rights. By day results ASFI sellers were unable to retain the share price at all-time-high level.

Most attractive share (in terms of a yield) was that in KZTK which appreciated as much as 24.4%. The most notable thing about that is that the majority of deals were market-executed enabling the shares to hit record high.

It is worth noting that during the last month a single deal on AMGZ and few in ROSA were executed. In doing so brokers followed well-known KKGBp scheme by demonstrating false market transactions at same price level taking advantage of mandatory quotation volumes for the market-maker.

CORPORATE BOND MARKET

Relative to January 2005 volume of deals has dipped by 49.0% per cent (by $77,752.1 th.) to $81.0 m. Range of securities involved into deals shrank tp 45 (48 - in January), number of deals has risen from 163 to 170. The stake of direct deals was 20.0% of transactions in quantitative expression and 16.6% in volumetric. In January - 11.0% and 13.9%.

5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of February (4 securities - BTASb4, GBe2, ATFBb4, BTASb1), formed 52.5% of the exchange's turnover including primary offerings. Similar indicator of market's concentration in January was 51.8%, in December - 47.0%. In February 16 instruments had higher than USD1 m. turnover (in January - 25). BTASb4 were leading by the number of made deals (17 deals) followed by VTZLb1 (15 deals) and ATFBb4 (13).

In February weighted average daily prices of 45 securities out of 26 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 17 - fell. There was nothing to compare prices of 2 new bonds with. ALKSb2 and ALKSb2 grew most of all (by 17.2%), UKPFb1 fell most of all (by 5.5%). Weighted average daily dirty prices of 3 bonds grew by 5% and more, and prices of 2 securities fell so considerably. Yields of 25 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in February, yields of 18 - fell.

Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in January of 2005.

Aforementioned data shows that the sector was experiencing some troubles in February. IRBIS analysts tend to explain so by partial outflow of pension assets in February to GS market (after MEUZhKAM-120 placement), as well as absence of primary floatations of corporate securities at KASE. Under the pressure of the last factor demand at secondary market rose to some extend leading to KASE_BY index fall and KASE_BC and KASE_BP indices rise.

The most attractive instrument was ALKSb2 which has been appreciating for a half and month. In general though, the corporate bond market looked weaker than equity market.

Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in February of 2005.

Change of KASE's securities lists in February of 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month)

--------------------------------------------------------
                   Shares:         Bonds:       Issuers:
Category of  -------------  -------------  -------------
admission    number  trend  number  trend  number  trend
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A                45     +1      92     +2      52     +3
B                37     +3       8      0      33     +1
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A+B              82     +4     100     +2      83     +4
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
N                 2      0       0      0       2      0
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
TOTAL            84     +4     100     +2      84     +4
--------------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; 
"B" - official "B" listing category; 
"A+B" - official list; 
"N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Most tradable CS at KASE in February of 2005 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      Volume of deals:
Code     Brief                      ------------------   Num- Market   Price
of       name of                          th.       m. ber of share, change,
security issuer                           USD      KZT  deals      %       %
-------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
BTASb4   Bank TuranAlem JSC          17,632.7  2,293.8     17   15.0   +0.55
KKGBe2   Kazkommertsbank JSC         10,021.2  1,303.5      6    8.5  +10.34
ATFBb4   ATFBank JSC                  7,511.2    977.5     13    6.4   +0.65
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC           7,349.2    956.0     11    6.2   -0.45
VTZLb1   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       6,457.2    841.7     15    5.5   +0.60
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit JSC        6,262.0    814.9     20    5.3   -1.48
ASBNb3   Alliance Bank JSC            4,653.3    605.4      4    3.9   +7.28
ALKS     Almaty Kus OJSC              4,631.2    602.6      8    3.9  -25.82
ASFI     Astana-Finance JSC           4,295.9    558.8     83    3.6   -9.09
VTBN     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       3,958.1    515.1     16    3.4   +1.72
CCBNb6   Bank CenterCredit JSC        3,738.6    486.3     10    3.2   +0.55
UTMK     Ust-Kamenogorsk
         titanium-magnesium           3,264.1    424.7      6    2.8   -1.31
         plant JSC
VTBNb2   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       2,958.6    385.0      4    2.5   +0.24
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  2,587.5    336.6      7    2.2   +0.80
NFBN     Neftebank OJSC               2,551.0    332.6     15    2.2  -11.33
TEBN     Temirbank JSC                2,427.0    316.1      3    2.1   -0.99
TEBNb2   Temirbank JSC                2,000.0    260.4      1    1.7   +1.46
KZASb2   KOSTANAY
         MINERALS JSC                 1,798.8    234.0      5    1.5   +1.46
KZIKb3   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  1,791.1    233.0      3    1.5   -7.94
VTBNp    Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       1,709.7    222.6     14    1.4   +2.81
CSBNb4   BANK CASPIAN JSC             1,538.5    200.1      1    1.3   +0.39
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC            1,421.3    184.9      2    1.2   +0.56
BTAS     Bank TuranAlem JSC           1,386.4    180.4      2    1.2  +37.38
TXBNb2   TEXAKABANK JSC               1,351.8    175.9      3    1.1   -2.15
KZTK     Kazakhtelecom JSC            1,337.7    174.0     12    1.1  +24.35
KZIKb7   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  1,205.0    157.4      2    1.0   +0.97
ORDB     Corporation Ordabasy JSC     1,030.2    134.1      3    0.9   -0.42
CHFM     Chimfarm JSC                 1,007.4    131.0      2    0.9  -40.00
KKGBb2   Kazkommertsbank JSC            980.1    127.8      4    0.8   +3.66
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC             877.5    114.0      1    0.7   +0.84
ATFBp8   ATFBank JSC                    858.9    112.0      1    0.7  +10.00
VTZL     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC         632.9     82.4      3    0.5  -22.23
HSBKb3   Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 629.3     81.9      1    0.5   -0.05
HSBKp    Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 542.4     70.6      1    0.5   +0.27
KZTCb1   KazTransCom JSC                540.0     70.2      4    0.5   -2.72
CCBNb4   Bank CenterCredit JSC          500.6     65.1      2    0.4   +0.06
VTBNb1   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC         474.1     61.7      4    0.4   -5.16
TSBNb1   Tsesnabank JSC                 390.7     50.9      1    0.3   +2.49
HSBKb5   Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 369.5     48.1      1    0.3   -0.71
ATFBp    ATFBank JSC                    343.0     44.7      1    0.3  +10.00
KKGBp    Kazkommertsbank JSC            298.5     38.8     40    0.3       0
KZIKb6   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                    281.6     36.6      1    0.2   -1.21
CSBNb2   BANK CASPIAN JSC               245.0     31.8      1    0.2   -0.35
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK JSC                 207.2     26.9      3    0.2   -4.55
ASFIb3   Astana-Finance JSC             189.0     24.6      2    0.2   +0.44
HRLT     CHARALTYN JSC                  161.6     21.0      3    0.1   +0.72
ZERD     Zerde OJSC                     156.5     20.4      3    0.1  -23.08
ASFIb2   Astana-Finance JSC             142.4     18.5      4    0.1   +0.60
KZNHb2   Kazneftekhim JSC               138.2     18.0      1    0.1       -
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC                       133.6     17.4      1    0.1   +0.73
ALKSb2   Almaty Kus OJSC                129.2     16.8     12    0.1  +17.16
KZALb1   Mining-smelting concern
         Kazakhaltyn JSC                117.1     15.3      5    0.1   +0.70
KARMb2   Karazhanbasmunai JSC           109.9     14.3      2    0.1   -0.72
HSBKb2   Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 107.6     14.0      2    0.1   -1.32
BTAIb1   BTA Mortgage                   103.7     13.5      1    0.1   +2.36
UKPFb1   UST-KAMENOGORSK
         POULTRY FARM OJSC               60.2      7.8      3    0.1   -5.46
ORDBb1   Corporation Ordabasy JSC        49.9      6.5      1   0.04   +2.41
MREKb1   Mangistau distributing                                 0.04
         electricity network
         company OJSC                    48.2      6.3      1          +0.67
ROSA     ROSA JSC                        44.8      5.8      6   0.04  +12.00
CSBNb3   BANK CASPIAN JSC                41.9      5.4      2   0.04   -2.84
HSBKe1   Halyk savings bank of                                  0.03
         Kazakhstan JSC                  33.3      4.3      1              -
CSBNb5   BANK CASPIAN JSC                30.9      4.0      2   0.03   -2.00
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                     25.8      3.4      1   0.02   -1.92
AMGZ     CNPC -                          24.7      3.2      4   0.02   +8.87
         Aktobemunaygas OJSC
HSBKb    Halyk savings bank of                                  0.02
         Kazakhstan JSC                  23.6      3.1      1          -0.95
NRBNb2   Nurbank JSC                     20.9      2.7      1   0.02   +4.50
ALKZp    Aluminium of Kazakstan JSC       1.1      0.1      2  0.001       0
KKGB     Kazkommertsbank JSC              0.6      0.1      1  0.001  -22.58
HSBK     Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                   0.4     0.05      1 <0.001  -99.37
-------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL    69                         117,942.9 15,348.5    420  100.0       -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of
deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the
following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" -
eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the
bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first
issue.

Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in January of 2005

------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Capitaliza-          Capitaliza-
                 tion                 tion         Bond value  Volume of
               of the               of the             index,   purchase
                share                bonds  Bonds   including   and sale
              market,   Share      market,  yield       accum     deals,
  Date         m. USD   index       m. USD  index    interest    th. USD
--------  -----------  ------  -----------  -----  ----------  ---------
31.01.05      3,990.4  217.83      5,336.8   7.58      169.46    6,646.4
01.02.05      3,993.1  210.32      5,336.3   7.64      169.40    3,388.3
02.02.05      3,995.6  217.78      5,319.6   7.55      169.91    6,033.1
03.02.05      3,972.6  216.58      5,320.9   7.46      170.53    1,642.9
04.02.05      3,972.1  208.89      5,322.2   7.46      170.52    6,425.2
07.02.05      3,969.1  215.32      5,340.2   7.43      170.92    3,731.0
08.02.05      3,976.9  214.90      5,345.7   7.54      170.34    3,521.5
09.02.05      3,963.0  206.88      5,342.2   7.44      170.99    2,903.2
10.02.05      3,969.7  208.75      5,341.8   7.33      171.66    3,751.1
11.02.05      4,102.3  216.58      5,343.9   7.38      171.37    9,548.4
14.02.05      4,089.1  214.70      5,339.4   7.55      170.54    2,237.9
15.02.05      4,079.7  210.38      5,335.1   7.22      172.67       93.7
16.02.05      4,167.5  215.18      5,337.1   7.55      170.75    9,292.2
17.02.05      4,065.0  215.45      5,340.6   7.38      171.77    7,645.9
18.02.05      4,126.0  232.12      5,400.5   7.49      171.26   17,406.9
21.02.05      4,128.1  217.23      5,400.8   7.46      171.57    4,568.0
22.02.05      4,025.7  216.66      5,403.5   7.37      172.21    8,112.2
23.02.05      4,150.7  210.92      5,403.5   7.30      172.63    9,376.3
24.02.05      4,147.0  210.34      5,404.0   7.21      173.18    2,793.0
25.02.05      4,165.1  220.25      5,403.9   7.27      172.88    6,563.0
28.02.05      3,859.1  216.47      5,403.1   7.19      173.52    8,909.0
--------  -----------  ------  -----------  -----  ----------  ---------
Trend          -131.3   -1.36        +66.3  -0.39       +4.06
                -3.3%   -0.6%        +1.2%  -5.1%       +2.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on
the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category,
including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the
bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating
on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the
number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market
values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead.
Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market
capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of
the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued
shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the
face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the
rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY)
- weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of
category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals
or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds
yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through
capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the
KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of
the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes
the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at
KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.

[2005-03-09]