ANALYSIS: In February of 2005 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 34.2% to $117.9 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 9, 05/ - In February of 2005 at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 420 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT15,348.5 m. or $117.9 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 2.0% of monthly exchange turnover (in January 2005 - 2.9%). In comparison with January of 2005 volume of transactions has grown by $61.3 m. (KZT8.0 bn.) or by 34.19% (by 34.18% in terms of tenge). Relative to February of 2004 volume of transactions has increased by $43.4 m. (KZT5.0 m.) or 1.6 times (1.5 times in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover at KASE in February is presented in the following way: 100% of all conducted deals fell to the stake of purchase and sale sector. Structure of exchange's CS market in January of 2005 was as follows: the stake of primary offerings was 10.4% of transactions volume ($18,554.4 th.), purchase and sale sector - 89.6% ($160,653.8 th.). SHARE MARKET Volume of deals volume in this segment rose in February 1.8 times or by $16.5 m to the equivalent of $38.9 m. Number of shares involved into deals in January fell from 25 to 24, and number of deals grew from 162 to 250. In analyzed period 34.4% of deals in shares in quantitative expression and 75.9% in volumetric expression were direct. Corresponding indicators of January - 51.9% and 83.3%. Statistical characteristics of share market can be also described by parameters of market's concentration. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of February 2005 (i.e. 4 shares - CCBN, ALKS, ASFI, VTBN), formed 51.9% of exchange's turnover. Similar indicator of January - 73.7%, December of the last year - 61.4%. Among favorites there were common shares of Bank CenterCredit JSC (CCBN, 17.0% of share turnover, 20 deals) and common shares of Valyut- Tranzit-bank JSC (TBN, 10.7%, 16 deals). The "top-5" in February also comprised ALKS (12.5%), ASFI (11.6%) and UTMK (8.8%). To remind, in January 5 positions of the rating belonged to CCBN (27.9%), VTBN (21.8%), ALKS (16.8%), HRLT (7.2%) and KKGBp (5.7% of the whole share market). On the number of executed deals, the indicator that adequately reflects security's liquidity, in February ASFI (83 deals) was the leader. It followed by KKGBp (40), CCBN (20), VTBN (16) and NFBN (15). In January first five positions of the rating comprised KKGBp (45), VTBN (27), CCBN (22), ALKS (11) and HRLT (10). Within the month weighted average daily prices of 10 shares out of 24 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 12 fell, prices of 2 shares remained on the same level. BTAS showed the largest growth rate (34.7%), the most rapid fall was that of HSBK (99.4%). KASE_Shares index fell within the month by 0.6% due to negative change of demand prices of ASFI, K HSBK, KZTK, KZZN, KKGBp, ROSA, TEBN, VTBN and VTBNp. In IRBIS analysts opinion ASFI was the most attractive equity investment this month. Trading in these shares involved a lot of disputes. Participants could witness the work of retail investors, boosting shares package by others and competition between brokers for the ownership rights. By day results ASFI sellers were unable to retain the share price at all-time-high level. Most attractive share (in terms of a yield) was that in KZTK which appreciated as much as 24.4%. The most notable thing about that is that the majority of deals were market-executed enabling the shares to hit record high. It is worth noting that during the last month a single deal on AMGZ and few in ROSA were executed. In doing so brokers followed well-known KKGBp scheme by demonstrating false market transactions at same price level taking advantage of mandatory quotation volumes for the market-maker. CORPORATE BOND MARKET Relative to January 2005 volume of deals has dipped by 49.0% per cent (by $77,752.1 th.) to $81.0 m. Range of securities involved into deals shrank tp 45 (48 - in January), number of deals has risen from 163 to 170. The stake of direct deals was 20.0% of transactions in quantitative expression and 16.6% in volumetric. In January - 11.0% and 13.9%. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of February (4 securities - BTASb4, GBe2, ATFBb4, BTASb1), formed 52.5% of the exchange's turnover including primary offerings. Similar indicator of market's concentration in January was 51.8%, in December - 47.0%. In February 16 instruments had higher than USD1 m. turnover (in January - 25). BTASb4 were leading by the number of made deals (17 deals) followed by VTZLb1 (15 deals) and ATFBb4 (13). In February weighted average daily prices of 45 securities out of 26 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 17 - fell. There was nothing to compare prices of 2 new bonds with. ALKSb2 and ALKSb2 grew most of all (by 17.2%), UKPFb1 fell most of all (by 5.5%). Weighted average daily dirty prices of 3 bonds grew by 5% and more, and prices of 2 securities fell so considerably. Yields of 25 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in February, yields of 18 - fell. Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in January of 2005. Aforementioned data shows that the sector was experiencing some troubles in February. IRBIS analysts tend to explain so by partial outflow of pension assets in February to GS market (after MEUZhKAM-120 placement), as well as absence of primary floatations of corporate securities at KASE. Under the pressure of the last factor demand at secondary market rose to some extend leading to KASE_BY index fall and KASE_BC and KASE_BP indices rise. The most attractive instrument was ALKSb2 which has been appreciating for a half and month. In general though, the corporate bond market looked weaker than equity market. Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in February of 2005. Change of KASE's securities lists in February of 2005 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 45 +1 92 +2 52 +3 B 37 +3 8 0 33 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 82 +4 100 +2 83 +4 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 2 0 0 0 2 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 84 +4 100 +2 84 +4 -------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable CS at KASE in February of 2005 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief ------------------ Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 17,632.7 2,293.8 17 15.0 +0.55 KKGBe2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 10,021.2 1,303.5 6 8.5 +10.34 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 7,511.2 977.5 13 6.4 +0.65 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 7,349.2 956.0 11 6.2 -0.45 VTZLb1 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 6,457.2 841.7 15 5.5 +0.60 CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 6,262.0 814.9 20 5.3 -1.48 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 4,653.3 605.4 4 3.9 +7.28 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 4,631.2 602.6 8 3.9 -25.82 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 4,295.9 558.8 83 3.6 -9.09 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 3,958.1 515.1 16 3.4 +1.72 CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 3,738.6 486.3 10 3.2 +0.55 UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-magnesium 3,264.1 424.7 6 2.8 -1.31 plant JSC VTBNb2 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 2,958.6 385.0 4 2.5 +0.24 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 2,587.5 336.6 7 2.2 +0.80 NFBN Neftebank OJSC 2,551.0 332.6 15 2.2 -11.33 TEBN Temirbank JSC 2,427.0 316.1 3 2.1 -0.99 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 2,000.0 260.4 1 1.7 +1.46 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 1,798.8 234.0 5 1.5 +1.46 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,791.1 233.0 3 1.5 -7.94 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 1,709.7 222.6 14 1.4 +2.81 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 1,538.5 200.1 1 1.3 +0.39 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 1,421.3 184.9 2 1.2 +0.56 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,386.4 180.4 2 1.2 +37.38 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 1,351.8 175.9 3 1.1 -2.15 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 1,337.7 174.0 12 1.1 +24.35 KZIKb7 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,205.0 157.4 2 1.0 +0.97 ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,030.2 134.1 3 0.9 -0.42 CHFM Chimfarm JSC 1,007.4 131.0 2 0.9 -40.00 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 980.1 127.8 4 0.8 +3.66 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 877.5 114.0 1 0.7 +0.84 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 858.9 112.0 1 0.7 +10.00 VTZL Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 632.9 82.4 3 0.5 -22.23 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 629.3 81.9 1 0.5 -0.05 HSBKp Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 542.4 70.6 1 0.5 +0.27 KZTCb1 KazTransCom JSC 540.0 70.2 4 0.5 -2.72 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 500.6 65.1 2 0.4 +0.06 VTBNb1 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 474.1 61.7 4 0.4 -5.16 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 390.7 50.9 1 0.3 +2.49 HSBKb5 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 369.5 48.1 1 0.3 -0.71 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 343.0 44.7 1 0.3 +10.00 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 298.5 38.8 40 0.3 0 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 281.6 36.6 1 0.2 -1.21 CSBNb2 BANK CASPIAN JSC 245.0 31.8 1 0.2 -0.35 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 207.2 26.9 3 0.2 -4.55 ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 189.0 24.6 2 0.2 +0.44 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 161.6 21.0 3 0.1 +0.72 ZERD Zerde OJSC 156.5 20.4 3 0.1 -23.08 ASFIb2 Astana-Finance JSC 142.4 18.5 4 0.1 +0.60 KZNHb2 Kazneftekhim JSC 138.2 18.0 1 0.1 - ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 133.6 17.4 1 0.1 +0.73 ALKSb2 Almaty Kus OJSC 129.2 16.8 12 0.1 +17.16 KZALb1 Mining-smelting concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 117.1 15.3 5 0.1 +0.70 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunai JSC 109.9 14.3 2 0.1 -0.72 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 107.6 14.0 2 0.1 -1.32 BTAIb1 BTA Mortgage 103.7 13.5 1 0.1 +2.36 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARM OJSC 60.2 7.8 3 0.1 -5.46 ORDBb1 Corporation Ordabasy JSC 49.9 6.5 1 0.04 +2.41 MREKb1 Mangistau distributing 0.04 electricity network company OJSC 48.2 6.3 1 +0.67 ROSA ROSA JSC 44.8 5.8 6 0.04 +12.00 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 41.9 5.4 2 0.04 -2.84 HSBKe1 Halyk savings bank of 0.03 Kazakhstan JSC 33.3 4.3 1 - CSBNb5 BANK CASPIAN JSC 30.9 4.0 2 0.03 -2.00 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 25.8 3.4 1 0.02 -1.92 AMGZ CNPC - 24.7 3.2 4 0.02 +8.87 Aktobemunaygas OJSC HSBKb Halyk savings bank of 0.02 Kazakhstan JSC 23.6 3.1 1 -0.95 NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 20.9 2.7 1 0.02 +4.50 ALKZp Aluminium of Kazakstan JSC 1.1 0.1 2 0.001 0 KKGB Kazkommertsbank JSC 0.6 0.1 1 0.001 -22.58 HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 0.4 0.05 1 <0.001 -99.37 -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 69 117,942.9 15,348.5 420 100.0 - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in January of 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 31.01.05 3,990.4 217.83 5,336.8 7.58 169.46 6,646.4 01.02.05 3,993.1 210.32 5,336.3 7.64 169.40 3,388.3 02.02.05 3,995.6 217.78 5,319.6 7.55 169.91 6,033.1 03.02.05 3,972.6 216.58 5,320.9 7.46 170.53 1,642.9 04.02.05 3,972.1 208.89 5,322.2 7.46 170.52 6,425.2 07.02.05 3,969.1 215.32 5,340.2 7.43 170.92 3,731.0 08.02.05 3,976.9 214.90 5,345.7 7.54 170.34 3,521.5 09.02.05 3,963.0 206.88 5,342.2 7.44 170.99 2,903.2 10.02.05 3,969.7 208.75 5,341.8 7.33 171.66 3,751.1 11.02.05 4,102.3 216.58 5,343.9 7.38 171.37 9,548.4 14.02.05 4,089.1 214.70 5,339.4 7.55 170.54 2,237.9 15.02.05 4,079.7 210.38 5,335.1 7.22 172.67 93.7 16.02.05 4,167.5 215.18 5,337.1 7.55 170.75 9,292.2 17.02.05 4,065.0 215.45 5,340.6 7.38 171.77 7,645.9 18.02.05 4,126.0 232.12 5,400.5 7.49 171.26 17,406.9 21.02.05 4,128.1 217.23 5,400.8 7.46 171.57 4,568.0 22.02.05 4,025.7 216.66 5,403.5 7.37 172.21 8,112.2 23.02.05 4,150.7 210.92 5,403.5 7.30 172.63 9,376.3 24.02.05 4,147.0 210.34 5,404.0 7.21 173.18 2,793.0 25.02.05 4,165.1 220.25 5,403.9 7.27 172.88 6,563.0 28.02.05 3,859.1 216.47 5,403.1 7.19 173.52 8,909.0 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend -131.3 -1.36 +66.3 -0.39 +4.06 -3.3% -0.6% +1.2% -5.1% +2.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2005-03-09]