ANALYSIS: In February of 2005 volume of GS purchase and sale deals at KASE decreased 1.57 times to KZT44.2 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 4, 05/ - In February of 2005 at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 210 deals were made in government securities (GS) purchase and sale sector for a total of KZT44,167.7 m. (equivalent of $339.5 m.) or 5.8% of total exchange's turnover of the month (in January - 8.6 %). In comparison with January of 2005 the sector's turnover has decreased 1.57 times in tenge and 1.57 times in dollar terms. Relative to February of 2004 the turnover has risen by 18.1% in tenge and 26.4 times in dollar terms. At primary market auction on MEOKAM -36 of 62th issue was held (Y030627, MOM036_0062; KZT1,000, KZT18,777.1 m; Feb 23, 05 - Feb 23, 08, semiannual coupon of 3.78 APR, 30/360). Demand for those securities reached KZT55,521.7 m, having exceeded the issue volume (KZT18.0 bn) by 308.5%. In sector of secondary market transactions 181 deals were made for a total of KZT25,390.6 m. Relative to January 2005 the sector's turnover shrank 46.12 pct in tenge and 46.09 pct in dollar terms. Statistical indicators of sale-purchase sector in February and turnover's structure are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable figures of the previous month). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for the buyer, %APR Days ----------------------------- Volume, m KZT Number till maturity min max last WA at market price of deals -------------- ---- ---- ---- ----------- ------------------- --------- Discounted GS (KZT): MEKKAM, National Bank's notes - 70.5% (49.9%) of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 0.75 2.86 0.75 1.60 (3.03) 573.9 5 8 - 14 1.15 2.70 1.15 1.90 (3.10) 2,336.9 9 15 - 28 2.00 2.45 2.30 2.23 (2.28) 5,405.9 23 29 - 36 2.20 2.54 2.45 2.46 (2.44) 1,544.3 11 37 - 42 1.48 2.55 2.55 1.98 (2.62) 601.3 3 43 - 56 2.35 2.56 2.49 2.46 (2.72) 2,305.8 11 57 - 63 2.49 3.02 3.02 2.58 (2.79) 280.1 6 64 - 91 2.60 3.14 3.14 2.85 (2.96) 1,204.0 16 92 - 181 3.00 3.50 3.00 3.13 (3.26) 2,563.0 14 182 - 364 3.24 3.85 3.24 3.40 (3.45) 1,097.3 6 -------------- ---- ---- ---- ----------- ------------------- --------- Total 17,912.4 (23,507.2) 104 (170) -------------- ---- ---- ---- ----------- ------------------- --------- Coupon GS (KZT): MEOKAM - 29.5% (50.0%) of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 3.00 4.70 4.32 4.16 (4.20) 2,839.7 33 731 - 1095 3.78 4.90 4.90 4.37 (4.92) 84.0 2 1096 - 1460 4.62 5.15 4.90 4.95 (5.17) 1,798.5 12 1461 - 1825 4.80 6.05 5.45 5.29 (5.62) 1,938.6 17 1826 - 2190 5.20 6.01 5.40 5.68 (5.38) 672.9 10 More than 2191 5.70 6.29 5.70 5.78 (5.69) 144.4 3 -------------- ---- ---- ---- ----------- ------------------- --------- Total 7,478.2 (23,563.1) 77 (119) -------------- ---- ---- ---- ----------- ------------------- --------- GRANDTOTAL 25,390.6 (47,121.1) 181 (290) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: for euronotes (* - fourth issue) volume of deals has been calculated at weighted average USD/KZT rate of the Exchange. In February 2005 stake of the exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals made at Kazakhstan secondary GS market decreased to 88.6%. In January it was 98.1%. GS trade fall at KASE in February was encouraged largely by floatation of MEUZhKAM-120 of the first issue in January. This event was accompanied by preparation from the side of pension funds, which got rid off old MEKAM. This significantly induced trades secondary market in January. MEUZhKAM floatation volume significantly exceeded February primary market volume. GS market at KASE got back to normal volume and its conventional structure, which is characterized by more active trades in National bank's notes. Volume of floatation of these notes at primary market considerably exceeds those of securities offered by Finance Ministry. In the table cited above it can be concluded that the preferable tendency of February is the GS yield fall. Only the longest securities were depreciating in value under the pressure of market revaluation after MEUZhKAM placement. IRBIS analysts do not expect something new from the market in March. Judging on everything rates continue to fall, trade volume remains at same level. [2005-03-04]