ANALYSIS: In January of 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector fell by 2.1% to KZT625.5 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 4, 05/ - In February of 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 3,545 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT625.5 bn. or USD4,807.8 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 81.7% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in January 2005- 79.4%). In comparison with January of 2005 volume of transactions has decreased by KZT13.3 bn. ($102.2 m.) or by 2.1% (by 2.1% in dollar terms). Relative to February of 2004 volume of transactions has increased by KZT269.2 bn. ($2,247.4 m.) or 1.8 times (1.9 times in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in February was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 97.2% of the sector's turnover (KZT608.1 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 95.8% (KZT599.3 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 1.4% (KZT8.8 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 2.8% of the sector's turnover (KZT17.4 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.7% (KZT4.1 bn.), deals in CS - 2.1% (KZT13.3 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in January of 2005 was characterized by the following indexes: autorepo - 91.5% (GS - 90.0%; CS - 1.5%); direct method repo - 8.5% (GS - 5.9%; CS - 2.6%). The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in January of 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 95.8% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 2.35 0.05 3.50 1.30 1.05 277,432.2 1,322 93.92 KZT_002 1.00 0.30 3.00 0.30 1.02 2,780.0 9 0.94 KZT_003 0.75 0.40 3.00 3.00 0.94 751.0 11 0.25 KZT_007 1.50 0.70 2.10 1.00 1.39 9,417.0 83 3.19 KZT_014 3.00 1.00 3.00 1.70 1.79 1,620.0 29 0.55 KZT_028 2.50 1.50 3.00 2.10 2.01 3,386.0 35 1.15 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 295,386.2 1,489 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 1.4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASF_180 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 185.0 2 4.50 ASFIb2_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 150.0 3 3.65 ASFIb2_002 6.50 50.0 1 1.22 ASFIb2_007 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 100.0 2 2.43 CCBN_001 3.00 167.0 1 4.07 CCBN_007 5.00 5.00 8.40 8.40 7.48 717.0 5 17.46 HRLT_007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 115.0 2 2.80 HRLT_028 8.50 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.53 220.0 6 5.36 HSBKb_014 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 170.0 2 4.14 KKGBp_007 5.50 71.0 1 1.73 KZIKb1_001 5.60 5.50 5.60 5.50 5.56 265.0 3 6.45 KZIKb1_007 5.80 5.80 6.50 6.50 5.92 365.0 3 8.89 KZTCb1_014 5.50 22.0 1 0.54 ORDB_028 6.00 31.0 1 0.75 ORDBb1_001 5.40 5.40 5.50 5.50 5.48 225.0 5 5.48 ORDBb1_007 5.70 5.70 7.00 7.00 6.31 170.0 3 4.14 ORDBp_014 6.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.50 50.0 2 1.22 ROSA_030 8.00 15.0 1 0.37 TEBN_010 10.00 50.0 1 1.22 TSBNb1_001 5.50 5.50 5.60 5.60 5.52 335.0 5 8.16 TSBNb1_007 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 130.0 2 3.17 TXBNb1_001 5.60 30.0 1 0.73 VTBN_007 10.00 109.0 1 2.65 VTBN_014 10.00 113.0 1 2.75 VTBN_028 6.00 6.00 10.00 10.00 9.12 150.0 5 3.65 VTBNb1_014 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 12.0 2 0.29 VTBNp_007 10.00 6.0 1 0.15 VTBNp_028 9.07 84.0 1 2.05 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 4,107.1 64 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 5.9% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 0.40 0.30 0.80 0.60 0.57 869.7 10 39.77 3 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.43 199.7 2 9.13 4 0.70 0.05 1.00 0.12 0.43 694.0 7 31.73 5 0.70 0.25 1.60 0.25 0.54 213.0 3 9.74 7 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 38.0 2 1.74 24 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 67.8 2 3.10 26 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 104.8 6 4.79 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 2,186.9 32 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 2.1% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Subject Term of ------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKS 30 8.48 1.1 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKSb2 36 2.00 21.3 1 0.36 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ARNAb1 28 10.00 10.0 1 0.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASBNb2 1 3.61 181.8 1 3.03 7 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 22.6 2 0.38 8 2.00 6.50 6.50 5.43 42.1 3 0.70 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 246.5 6 4.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASBNb3 3 2.43 182.0 1 3.03 15 7.06 7.06 7.06 7.06 15.1 2 0.25 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 197.1 3 3.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb2 3 2.00 9.1 1 0.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb3 28 3.00 3.3 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb4 1 1.01 5.98 1.01 3.33 248.3 3 4.14 3 2.01 4.01 2.01 2.96 41.9 2 0.70 7 2.00 6.00 6.00 5.13 129.0 4 2.15 12 2.00 30.5 1 0.51 28 3.00 50.0 1 0.83 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 499.6 11 8.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBp 28 8.00 77.0 1 1.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBp8 28 6.51 8.00 6.51 7.70 107.8 5 1.80 84 6.05 45.0 1 0.75 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 152.8 6 2.55 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- BTASb1 1 4.50 101.1 1 1.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- BTASb4 15 1.50 14.8 1 0.25 22 2.00 5.0 1 0.08 28 2.50 14.8 1 0.25 29 3.00 9.0 1 0.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 43.7 4 0.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBN 7 4.17 6.2 1 0.10 8 4.56 6.2 1 0.10 28 9.97 20.4 1 0.34 89 11.01 170.0 1 2.83 90 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 130.0 2 2.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 332.8 6 5.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb3 5 10.11 33.8 1 0.56 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb6 7 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 127.9 2 2.13 28 3.00 14.0 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 141.9 3 2.36 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HRLT 29 10.70 12.0 1 0.20 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb 28 8.00 23.0 1 0.38 30 8.50 45.1 1 0.75 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 68.1 2 1.13 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKp 2 10.18 28.5 1 0.47 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KARMb2 28 2.00 22.0 1 0.37 29 3.00 10.0 1 0.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 32.0 2 0.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKGBb2 7 3.00 142.0 1 2.37 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKGBp 7 4.13 5.64 5.64 5.42 97.8 4 1.63 8 4.60 6.5 1 0.11 27 4.54 5.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 109.3 6 1.82 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb1 28 13.00 2.0 1 0.03 29 3.00 7.50 7.50 7.02 112.0 2 1.87 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 114.0 3 1.90 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb4 7 1.35 0.3 1 0.01 28 1.97 3.00 2.03 2.94 100.3 3 1.67 31 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03 312.8 2 5.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 413.4 6 6.89 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 29 3.02 3.0 1 0.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTCb1 4 2.68 31.7 1 0.53 27 3.69 8.33 3.69 6.46 142.4 2 2.37 60 8.03 87.0 1 1.45 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 261.1 4 4.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTK 283 8.97 100.0 1 1.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NFBN 10 6.99 10.0 1 0.17 13 9.69 20.0 1 0.33 14 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 15.0 2 0.25 28 13.00 24.0 1 0.40 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 69.0 5 1.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 27 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 150.0 2 2.50 28 9.50 5.0 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 155.0 3 2.58 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDB 1 5.11 8.03 8.03 7.83 118.0 2 1.97 5 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02 95.4 3 1.59 7 4.51 8.00 4.51 6.97 49.7 3 0.83 14 5.00 13.3 1 0.22 28 8.00 10.00 8.00 8.76 24.5 3 0.41 29 15.00 0.7 1 0.01 37 5.00 1.2 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 302.7 14 5.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBb1 21 2.00 17.1 1 0.29 28 9.00 15.0 1 0.25 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 32.1 2 0.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBp 29 15.00 45.8 1 0.76 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 21 10.01 15.0 1 0.25 28 6.55 6.55 6.55 6.55 45.0 2 0.75 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 60.0 3 1.00 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBN 7 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 50.0 2 0.83 28 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.87 170.5 3 2.84 30 7.51 8.00 8.00 7.78 45.0 3 0.75 89 10.00 30.0 1 0.50 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 295.4 9 4.92 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBNb3 17 10.00 8.9 1 0.15 88 3.00 220.0 1 3.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 229.0 2 3.81 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TSBNb1 28 9.52 5.0 1 0.08 1 5.00 4.0 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 9.0 2 0.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TXBNb2 5 10.22 36.2 1 0.60 27 8.31 75.0 1 1.25 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 111.2 2 1.85 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBN 7 5.05 6.6 1 0.11 15 4.79 57.0 1 0.95 21 12.00 1.5 1 0.02 22 10.03 5.0 1 0.08 24 8.51 8.51 8.51 8.51 67.7 2 1.13 27 10.36 75.0 1 1.25 28 9.98 13.07 12.02 10.99 412.7 11 6.88 89 9.01 9.51 9.01 9.45 165.0 2 2.75 101 3.00 107.0 1 1.78 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 897.5 21 14.95 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 3 3.54 60.0 1 1.00 28 9.50 12.00 12.00 9.87 35.3 4 0.59 90 11.00 84.6 1 1.41 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 179.9 6 3.00 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 28 4.08 10.50 10.50 5.12 149.8 2 2.50 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNp 1 3.42 10.0 1 0.17 2 10.04 28.5 1 0.47 21 12.00 2.0 1 0.03 28 8.01 12.02 11.99 8.67 75.8 5 1.26 38 8.01 38.0 1 0.63 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 154.3 9 2.57 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTTHb1 28 11.99 0.4 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTZL 23 5.00 3.0 1 0.05 26 7.97 130.0 1 2.17 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 133.0 2 2.22 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTZLb1 17 12.02 8.3 1 0.14 28 11.99 8.3 1 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 16.6 2 0.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ZERD 28 13.04 7.0 1 0.12 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ВСЕГО 6,002.6 162 100.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan secondary market in February of 2005 was 99.5%, in January of 2005 - 97.9%. Contrary expectations, the Euronotes offering in February by two major banks did not affect the dollar supply significantly and as a result the National bank did not intervene. At the same time considerable amount of money at pension funds was linked to MEUZhKAM -120 offering by the Finance Ministry in the end of January. These factors did not contribute to the growth of repo operations at KASE just like the cost of shortest funds. It is worth noting that overnight repo rate fall happened against the background of the official rate hike, indicating again that those indicators cannot really affect the market. IRBIS analysts' forecasts that that were not met in February remain in effect in the next month. Oil prices rally and 2004 tax payments will be contributing to dollar supply in Kazakhstan and demand for local currency. The leads to expectations of higher cost of funds and repo market become more active at KASE. [2005-03-04]