ANALYSIS: In January of 2005 volume of GS purchase and sale deals at KASE decreased 1.52 times to KZT69.3 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 8, 05/ - In January of 2005 at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 316 deals were made in government securities (GS) purchase and sale sector for a total of KZT69,311.1 m. (equivalent of $531.9 m.) or 8.6% of total exchange's turnover of the month (in December - 10.6 %). In comparison with December of 2004 the sector's turnover has decreased 1.52 times in tenge and 1.52% in dollar terms. Relative to January of 2004 the turnover has risen by 15.2% in tenge and 24.7 times in dollar terms. At primary market MUZhKAM -120, treasury bonds designated for pension funds, offering of the first issue was held (KZKAKY100014, MUJ120_0001, KZT1,000, KZT22,190.0 m; January 27, 05 - January 27, 15, annual coupon of 0.01% APR+ inflation rate, 30/360). The book was oversubscribed 2.5 times (by KZT18.0 bn) and reached KZT22,190.0 m in face value terms (bonds were offered at face value). In sector of secondary market transactions 290 deals were made for a total of KZT47,121.1 m. Relative to December 2004 the sector's turnover shrank 2.24 times in tenge and 2.24 times in dollar terms. Statistical indicators of sale-purchase sector in January and turnover's structure are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable figures of the previous month). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for the buyer, %APR Volume, Days ----------------------------- m KZT Number till maturity min max last WA at market price of deals --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- Discounted GS (KZT): MEKKAM, National Bank's notes - 49.9% (80.8%) of the market ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 1.55 6.01 1.55 3.03 (1.15) 731.1 4 8 - 14 0.93 6.00 2.51 3.10 (1.56) 4,674.1 13 15 - 28 1.75 2.96 2.50 2.28 (1.45) 2,777.2 23 29 - 36 2.30 2.78 2.40 2.44 (2.11) 2,211.0 17 37 - 42 2.31 3.01 2.40 2.62 (2.55) 1,445.3 12 43 - 56 2.24 2.88 2.80 2.72 (2.74) 4,634.2 31 57 - 63 2.49 2.88 2.86 2.79 (2.53) 1,075.1 11 64 - 91 2.13 3.10 2.96 2.96 (2.80) 1,062.5 15 92 - 181 2.92 3.57 3.30 3.26 (3.22) 3,704.0 28 182 - 364 3.26 3.55 3.39 3.45 (3.38) 1,192.7 16 --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- Total 23,507.2 (85,157.4) 170 (190) --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- Coupon GS (KZT): MEOKAM - 50.0% (19.2%) of the market ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 3.30 9.01 4.70 4.20 (4.94) 5,864.6 43 731 - 1095 4.90 4.93 4.90 4.92 (4.90) 97.6 2 1096 - 1460 4.60 5.85 5.03 5.17 (5.36) 3,729.0 24 1461 - 1825 4.92 6.10 5.71 5.62 (5.34) 3,264.0 16 1826 - 2190 4.82 5.77 5.70 5.38 (5.12) 7,584.3 24 More than 2191 5.20 7.50 5.69 5.69 (5.56) 3,023.7 10 --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- Total 23,563.1 (20,205.3) 119 (66) --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- Coupon GS of Kazakhstan: bonds of Astana - 0.1% ( -) of purchase-sale sector ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 731 - 1095 10.05 10.05 10.05 10.05 ( -) 50.8 1 --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- Total 50.8 ( -) 1 ( -) --------------- ----- ----- ----- ----------- -------------------- --------- GRANDTOTAL 47,121.1 (105,412.4) 290 (257) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: for euronotes (* - fourth issue) volume of deals has been calculated at weighted average USD/KZT rate of the Exchange. In January 2005 stake of the exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals made at Kazakhstan secondary GS market decreased to 98.1%. In December 2004 it was 96.4%. In IRBIS analyst opinion, key influence on GS secondary market in Kazakhstan was that of Finance Ministry issuing new securities, which is in line with expectations. This circumstance enabled the National bank of Kazakhstan decrease its notes issuing activity three times. Rapid fall in number of discount securities led to its turnover shrinkage by more than 3 times at secondary market (see table) with corresponding effect on general structure of the turnover. MEUZhKAM placement positively affected secondary market of medium term notes. Pension fund managers were freeing its portfolios in the threshold of the new issue by Finance Ministry. Regardless of absence of year-end transactions trades in MEOKAM was quite active and demonstrated certain growth relative to previous month. As shown in table, January could be characterized by yield increase on government bonds at secondary market. IRBIS analyst explains this by prime rate hike and excess amount of MEOKAM in circulation. The first influenced discount bonds, the latter affected coupon securities. In general, regardless deal volume fall GS exchange market fall in January looked active and liquid than in December. This could be expected in February either. GS yield will slow down in next month and will primarily affect discount bonds. [2005-02-08]