ANALYSIS: In January of 2005 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector fell by 3.5% to KZT638.8 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 7, 05/ - In January of 2005 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 3,619 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT638.8 bn. or USD4,910.0 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 79.4% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in December 2004- 66.5%). In comparison with December of 2004 volume of transactions has decreased by KZT23.5 bn. ($183.3 m.) or by 3.5% (by 3.6% in dollar terms). Relative to January of 2004 volume of transactions has increased by KZT291.6 bn. ($2,444.5 m.) or 1.8 times (2.0 times in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in January was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 91.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT584.8 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 90.0% (KZT575.1 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 1.5% (KZT9.7 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 8.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT54.1 bn.), including deals in GS - 5.9% (KZT37.5 bn.), deals in CS - 2.6% (KZT16.6 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in December of 2004 was characterized by the following indexes: autorepo - 82.6% (GS - 81.3%; CS - 1.3%); direct method repo - 17.4% (GS - 15.7%; CS - 1.7%). The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in January of 2005 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 90.0% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 0.70 0.00 6.60 0.25 1.91 253,519.2 1,392 88.45 KZT_002 0.80 0.65 2.50 1.50 1.30 5,912.0 12 2.06 KZT_003 0.70 0.50 6.00 6.00 2.95 8,270.0 49 2.89 KZT_007 1.00 1.00 5.00 2.00 3.59 12,851.0 74 4.48 KZT_014 2.00 1.50 5.00 5.00 2.40 4,440.0 22 1.55 KZT_028 2.50 2.20 3.00 2.40 2.60 1,639.0 26 0.57 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 286,631.3 1,575 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 1.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASFIb2_001 5.50 5.50 5.60 5.60 5.55 100.0 2 1.93 ASFIb2_002 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 100.0 2 1.93 ASFIb2_007 5.50 5.50 5.70 5.70 5.60 150.0 3 2.90 BTAS_003 12.00 382.0 1 7.38 CCBN_001 2.00 2.00 7.40 7.40 6.15 364.0 5 7.03 HRLT_028 8.50 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.53 220.0 5 4.25 HSBKb_007 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 4.87 170.0 2 3.28 HSBKb_014 5.00 85.0 1 1.64 HSBKb5_007 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 372.0 2 7.19 KZASb2_014 9.00 40.0 1 0.77 KZIKb1_001 5.70 149.0 1 2.88 KZIKb1_007 5.70 5.70 5.80 5.80 5.75 300.0 2 5.80 KZTCb1_007 5.60 2.50 5.60 2.50 3.80 167.0 3 3.23 NRBNp6_001 5.50 114.0 1 2.20 NRBNp6_003 5.40 85.0 1 1.64 NRBNp6_007 5.70 85.0 1 1.64 ORDB_028 6.00 2.00 6.00 2.00 2.96 209.0 2 4.04 ORDBb1_007 5.60 5.60 5.70 5.70 5.65 255.0 4 4.93 ORDBp_007 2.00 40.0 1 0.77 ORDBp_014 10.00 25.0 1 0.48 RGBRb3_007 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 400.0 2 7.73 TEBN_030 10.00 45.0 1 0.87 TSBNb1_001 5.60 5.50 5.60 5.60 5.57 195.0 3 3.77 TSBNb1_003 5.40 5.40 5.60 5.60 5.50 130.0 2 2.51 TSBNb1_007 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 130.0 2 2.51 TXBNb1_007 5.50 30.0 1 0.58 TXBNb2_001 5.50 30.0 1 0.58 TXBNb2_007 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 335.0 2 6.47 UTMK_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 40.0 2 0.77 VTBN_007 10.00 2.00 10.00 2.00 9.37 128.0 2 2.47 VTBN_014 6.50 6.50 10.00 10.00 9.58 134.0 3 2.59 VTBN_028 10.00 2.00 10.00 10.00 8.83 75.0 3 1.45 VTBNb1_014 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 12.0 2 0.23 VTBNp_028 9.00 80.0 1 1.55 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 5,176.1 68 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 5.9% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 1 1.10 0.50 3.51 0.80 2.04 3,713.7 21 82.55 2 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 60.0 1 1.33 3 0.70 0.50 0.70 0.70 0.65 202.0 3 4.49 4 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 200.0 2 4.45 10 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 99.2 1 2.21 18 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 25.3 1 0.56 22 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 61.2 1 1.36 25 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 104.5 6 2.32 32 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.0 1 0.07 35 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 16.6 1 0.37 45 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 13.0 1 0.29 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 4,498.5 39 100.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in CS - 2.6% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Subject Term of ------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKS 14 7.79 1.1 1 0.01 31 7.04 1.1 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 2.2 2 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ARNAb1 26 10.00 14.0 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ASBNb3 1 6.78 7.00 6.78 6.97 56.5 2 0.63 21 2.91 123.0 1 1.38 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 179.5 3 2.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb3 10 2.29 54.2 1 0.61 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb4 1 3.98 127.0 1 1.42 4 2.70 50.8 1 0.57 7 2.10 49.7 1 0.56 31 7.00 200.0 1 2.24 90 6.00 7.70 7.70 6.85 600.0 2 6.72 365 8.50 283.5 1 3.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,310.9 7 14.69 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- BTASb4 7 1.75 100.0 1 1.12 31 2.00 36.0 1 0.40 Subtotal 136.0 2 1.52 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBN 4 7.41 7.41 7.41 7.41 178.7 2 2.00 7 5.94 6.20 5.94 6.09 164.0 2 1.84 13 5.98 161.6 1 1.81 31 5.00 10.01 5.00 7.07 429.9 6 4.82 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 934.1 11 10.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb3 26 10.10 30.0 1 0.34 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb4 1 3.36 6.73 6.73 3.79 60.7 3 0.68 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb6 1 4.00 179.0 1 2.01 4 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 180.6 3 2.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 359.6 4 4.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HRLT 31 10.01 12.0 1 0.13 89 10.46 65.0 1 0.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 77.0 2 0.86 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb 31 8.00 23.0 1 0.26 90 8.80 12.2 1 0.14 Subtotal 35.2 2 0.39 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb3 32 3.15 320.3 1 3.59 KARMb2 4 1.50 18.0 1 0.20 45 2.00 32.0 1 0.36 91 4.50 66.8 1 0.75 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 116.8 3 1.31 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKGBb2 33 2.00 100.2 1 1.12 14 2.92 248.9 1 2.79 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 349.1 2 3.91 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KTTH 365 7.00 186.0 1 2.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb1 28 13.00 2.0 1 0.02 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb4 7 2.35 57.3 1 0.64 10 2.19 57.7 1 0.65 32 3.95 317.0 1 3.55 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 432.0 3 4.84 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 45 1.95 35.0 1 0.39 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTCb1 1 3.69 85.0 1 0.95 7 4.75 4.84 4.75 4.79 173.0 2 1.94 39 7.96 88.0 1 0.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 346.0 4 3.88 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTK 45 1.50 5.0 1 0.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTKp 3 7.01 10.0 1 0.11 31 15.00 0.2 1 0.00 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 10.2 2 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZZN 3 7.03 5.0 1 0.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- MMGZp 31 7.85 89.0 1 1.00 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- MREKb1 1 3.65 5.0 1 0.06 27 1.49 5.0 1 0.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 10.0 2 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NFBN 34 8.00 37.7 1 0.42 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 10 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 150.0 2 1.68 32 9.50 5.0 1 0.06 90 10.50 45.0 1 0.50 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 200.0 4 2.24 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDB 28 10.00 9.3 1 0.10 31 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 14.7 2 0.16 183 6.00 250.0 1 2.80 365 7.00 186.0 1 2.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 460.0 5 5.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBb1 3 4.00 16.7 1 0.19 7 4.70 50.0 1 0.56 31 3.00 9.00 9.00 3.68 132.3 3 1.48 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 199.0 5 2.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBp 59 15.00 168.1 1 1.88 181 6.00 60.0 1 0.67 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 228.1 2 2.55 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 1 3.52 7.04 3.52 5.36 38.3 2 0.43 7 6.05 6.55 6.55 6.28 35.0 2 0.39 14 6.05 69.9 1 0.78 26 10.10 18.0 1 0.20 28 6.55 7.92 7.92 6.77 53.6 2 0.60 29 8.01 8.01 8.01 8.01 57.2 2 0.64 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 272.0 10 3.05 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBN 17 5.50 57.6 1 0.64 31 8.00 10.00 10.00 8.19 21.7 2 0.24 Subtotal 79.2 3 0.89 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TXBNb2 7 4.87 75.0 1 0.84 26 10.02 36.0 1 0.40 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 111.0 2 1.24 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBN 4 3.99 6.56 6.56 5.07 86.0 2 0.96 6 3.99 135.0 1 1.51 14 5.54 6.03 6.03 5.73 20.6 2 0.23 18 6.02 25.2 1 0.28 22 6.74 8.50 6.74 7.41 161.2 2 1.81 25 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 105.0 2 1.18 28 9.98 2.8 1 0.03 31 8.50 10.50 10.50 10.01 208.0 5 2.33 32 6.99 10.02 10.02 9.12 338.4 5 3.79 33 7.49 8.50 7.49 8.33 120.2 2 1.35 34 7.99 63.5 1 0.71 45 9.02 85.0 1 0.95 59 9.01 100.1 1 1.12 68 10.00 0.6 1 0.01 90 9.00 10.50 10.50 9.04 185.0 2 2.07 181 6.00 68.0 1 0.76 183 6.00 101.5 1 1.14 355 8.00 114.4 1 1.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,920.4 32 21.51 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 7 2.00 16.6 1 0.19 28 12.00 1.5 1 0.02 31 9.50 30.0 1 0.34 90 10.50 25.0 1 0.28 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 73.1 4 0.82 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 89 10.49 105.0 1 1.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNp 26 10.01 28.0 1 0.31 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTZL 25 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 105.0 2 1.18 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTZLb1 30 12.05 8.3 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 6,952.7 125 100.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan secondary market in January of 2005 was 97.9%, in December of 2004 - 95.1%. Judging on abovementioned data the repo market returned to its normal path after stresses attributable to year end. Slight decrease of turnover is due to absence of transactions finalizing journal entries, as well as foreign currency exchange market fall thanks to National bank that purchased less currency. Therefore, the activeness of the head bank at repo market reduced significantly. Reasons mentioned (especially first one) brought the exchange market structure back to conventional state when main volume of operations falls at the stake of repo operations with GS. Decrease of idle funds at corresponding accounts in January, as well as National bank's prime rate raise affected general repo rates level, which rose relative to December. Thus, cost of shortest funds at autorepo market rose in weighted average monthly term from 1.31% to 1.91%. TONIA indicator behaved traditionally, hitting highs as usual 20ths of the month. In February IRRBIS analysts expect some gradual increase of repo market at KASE. This can be explained by monetary policy of the National bank, which raised the refinancing rate last month as well as prime repo and deposit rates. In IRBIS analysts opinion this should encourage the funds turnover in the sector of the market and lead to increase of cost of short funds in Kazakhstan. Besides, IRBIS forecasts increase of forex transactions rise as major Kazkommertsbank and Bank TuranAlem placed another bulk of euronotes. As a result the National bank will increase its dollar purchase volumes at local market resulting in greater amount of idle funds at corresponding accounts of banks. [2005-02-07]