ANALYSIS: In December of 2004 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE rose by 42.4% to $179.3 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 18, 05, resent due to mistakes made in the last table/ - In December of 2004 at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 495 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT23,308.8 m. or $179.3 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 2.3% of monthly exchange turnover (in November - 1.9%). In comparison with November of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by $53.4 m. (KZT6.9 bn.) or by 42.4% (by 41.8% in terms of tenge). Relative to December of 2003 volume of transactions has fallen by $27.3 m. (KZT6,705.0 m.) or by 13.2% (by 22.3% in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover at KASE in December is presented in the following way: 19.4% ($34,750.9 th.) of all conducted deals fell to the stake of primary offerings; stake of purchase and sale sector was 80.1% ($143,543.0 th.); stake of SBS was 0.5% ($956.5 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in November of 2004 was as follows: the stake of primary offerings was 2.6% of transactions volume ($3,216.2 th.), purchase and sale sector - 97.4% ($122,648.4 th.). MARKET OF STATE BLOCKS OF SHARES In December, after a long break, trades - the second and the last ones in year 2004, were held in this sector. Initiator of these trades was the Committee of state property and privatization of the Ministry of finance of Kazakhstan, which, through the mediation of RSE Information-stocking center (Almaty), on December 3 of 2004 exhibited by non-divisible lot the shareholding consisting of 12,955 common shares of Alliance Bank JSC (1.85% of total paid number of floated shares of Alliance Bank JSC) at the exchange under NZ_ASBN symbol. The shareholding was traded for 9 days. In that period the seller by making 15 bids decreased offer price of one share of the SBS from KZT13,000.00 ($99.95) to deal amount. Demand price grew by KZT100.00 from KZT9,600.00 ($73.83) per security. Trades on December 15 were successful, the SBS was sold at KZT9,600.00 per share or USD73.83 at the current exchange's rate effective on deal making date (KZT130.03 per dollar). Sum of the deal was KZT124,368,000.00 or equivalent of USD956,456.20. Common shares of Alliance Bank JSC (KZ1C40310019; KASE's official "A" listing category, ASBN, face value is KZT10,000) are traded in KASE's secondary market sector since February 2 of 2004. During the whole period of trades until December 15 of 2004 6 deals were made in 61,216 of these shares for a total of KZT511.4 m. Prices of some deals varied from KZT6,993.88 per share ($50.18) to KZT12,000.00 ($92.18). Weighted average price on all deals concluded on exchange's secondary market was KZT8,651.08 per share ($63.82). It should be noted that the mentioned shareholding did not arouse any considerable interest of brokers. Buyers' incompliance was explained by small stake of the SBS in bank's authorized capital, absence of guaranteed income on instruments, which the shareholding consisted of, and also by the origin of shareholding, which passed into the ownership of the state because of non-fulfillment of obligations on taxes and other compulsory budget payments by one of private shareholders of Alliance Bank JSC. SHARE MARKET Volume of deals volume in this segment grew in December by 26.3% or by $15.1 m. to $72.5 m. Number of shares involved into deals in December grew from 27 to 36, and number of deals grew from 248 to 301. Average volume of on transaction grew up to KZT31.3 m. ($240.8 th.) in December from KZT30.3 m. ($231.3 th.) in November. In December 72.5% of deals in shares in quantitative expression and 73% in volumetric expression wre direct. Corresponding indicators of November - 79% and 62%. Statistical characteristics of share market can be also described by parameters of market's concentration. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of December (i.e. 4 shares - CCBN, VTBN, ROSA, KZMS), formed 61.4% of exchange's turnover. Similar indicator of November - 54.0%. Among favorites there were common shares of Bank CenterCredit JSC (CCBN, 36.8% of share turnover, 49 deals). The "top-5" in December also comprised VTBN (12.6%), ROSA (6.2%), KZMS (5.8%) and TEBN (5.7%). We're reminding that in November 5 positions of the rating belonged to CCBN (22.1%), ATFB (11.2%), ORDB (10.5%), VTBN (10.2%) and VTBNp (6.7% of the whole share market). Within the month weighted average daily prices of 19 shares out of 36 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 13 ones fell, prices of 2 shares remained on the same level. Two instruments - common shares of S.A.S. JSC (SAS_) and Nurbank OJSC (NRBN) first in the analyzed month received market estimation at KASE. HSBK grew most of all (234.1 times), RAHT fell most of all (3.1 times). KASE_Shares index grew within the month by 0.6% due to positive change of demand prices of KANT, VTBNp, HSBK, ORDBp, VTBN, KKGBp and BTAS. The described segment was notable with non-ordinary events in December. First of all it concerns de-listing of KZMS - common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC (Jezkazgan) on account of its reorganization as limited liability partnership. This is a great loss for Kazakhstan stock market for these shares were most tradable CS at KASE within the years 2002 - 2004. Besides, KZMS were one of few instruments, which were traded at the exchange on the market principle. Their price reacted to the events, which occurred in issuer's life, that is not typical for Kazakhstan share market, which is represented mainly by direct deals of financing guaranteed by securities or by mutual reckonings of trade participants. In December there was an unexampled, non-market by the origin fluctuation of prices of three shares at a time: HSBK, HSBKp and CSBNp. The abrupt growth of prices was fixed in several direct deals in these shares on December 15, which, as their broker says, were the result of fulfillment of client's order. Most probably, by reselling shares broker's clients made some mutual reckonings. And on the reason they had few shares, it was necessary to increase prices improperly highly, in order to achieve the desired result. So highly that KASE decided to exclude these shares from calculation of its share market's capitalization. Precisely on the described reason, following results of December, weighted average price of HSBK has grown by 23,310.1%, HSBKp - by 3,469.4%, CSBNp - by 12,752.7%. First deals made in SAS_ were interesting in December. Book value of share as of October 1 of 2004 was KZT9,720.63, and two direct deals were made at KASE at KZT1,040,000.00 and KZT866,666.67 per security. Having no reasons to consider these shares rate as incorrect, KASE took into account the shown prices in market's capitalization calculation that let almost entirely compensate losses of capitalization after de-listing of shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC. Among positive things of December's market there was the marked activation of trading at KASE in privileged shares Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGBp). Starting since December 8 deals in KKGBp were made at the exchange almost every day, and they were made mainly in trade mode i.e. were market deals. Due to brokers' interest these shares took the second position by the number of conducted transactions in the analyzed month having only yielded to the traditional favorite - CCBN. In share trading rating KKGBp took the sixth place by the volume of deals (see tables below). A total of 7 exchange's members took part in making of deals in KKGBp at KASE in December, they operated with 10 depo accounts. Volume of one deal varied from 10 to 3,369,970 shares and was in the average 138,947 securities. Rate of KKGBp changed from KZT90.01 to KZT139.00, the price did not depend on the size of resold shareholding. According to results of the month weighted average daily rate of KKGBp has grown by 42.9% from KZT89.00 to KZT127.18. This growth is within the spread of compulsory quotations of the market-maker (Kazkommerts Securities OJSC), which in the whole month was not 50% of purchasing quotations already (in the beginning of the month market-maker quoted KKGBp at KZT85.00/127.50 per security, in the end - at KZT139.00/208.50). As the whole it's possible to say Kazakhstan share market began to change positively. Precedents of verily market trading with shares come more and more often. Although there is still no well-grounded optimism. CORPORATE BOND MARKET This segment was considerably changed in comparison with November. Volume of deals has grown 1.5 times (by $37,321.0 th.) to $105.8 m. Range of securities involved into deals has increased only by 2 instruments (46 - in November), number of deals has grown from 149 to 193. Average volume of deal has grown from KZT60.0 m. ($459.7 th.) to KZT71.3 bn. ($548.3 th.). The stake of direct deals was 26.4% of transactions in quantitative expression and 14.0% in volumetric. In November - 19% and 26.1%. 5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of December (4 securities - EUBNb2, CCBNb6, KZIKb7, ASBNb3), formed 47.0% of the exchange's turnover including primary offerings. Similar indicator of market's concentration in November was 38.4%, in October - 43.4%. In December appearance of bond market was in great degree determined by new issues. Precisely they, due to the primary offering at KASE, were leading in "the top 4" by the volume of made deals illustrating main interest of market's participants. However leadership of the favorites was not contrasting (see table below). Brokers were working with a wide range of securities. In December 20 instruments had higher than USD1 m. turnover. In December BTASb4 were leading by the number of made deals (19 deals). KKGBe2 were after them (18 deals) and KZASb2 (9). It's notable that bond's liquidity degree at KASE almost did not depend on the methods of their holder's income indexation. In December weighted average daily prices of 26 securities out of 48 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 17 - fell. There was nothing to compare prices of 5 new bonds with. ALKSb2 grew most of all (by 22.1%), TSBNb1 fell most of all (by 4.2%). Weighted average daily dirty prices of 8 bonds grew by 5% and more, and prices of no security fell so considerably. Results of statistical analysis show that dollar bonds and bonds indexed on devaluation of tenge against dollar (without protection from revaluation) tended to fall more than other. Non-indexed tenge instruments and bonds protected from inflation risks were prevailing in the list of instruments growing in price. Yields of 14 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in December, yields of 29 - fell. KASE_B* indexes had very high volatility in December. Market-makers of several securities (mainly BTASb4, KZIKb3, KZIKb6, KARMb2) actively moved quotations in the second half of the month, and as the result daily fluctuation amplitude of KASE_BY used to reach 30 basis points (4%). Specialists or IRBIS explain market-makers' behavior by the necessity t made the final deals of the year, when prices and quotations usually have the grown fluctuation amplitude. As the whole in December KASE_BY worked out a sub-horizontal correcting movement within the frameworks of the global descending trend, which had been formed in the beginning of May of 2004. Summarizing everything concerning the described segment it should be said that major regularities of December are: - increased interest of brokers in bonds of new issues; - insignificant prevalence of demand for bonds over offer in purchase and sale sector of KASE's secondary market; - minimal change of bonds' yields to maturity for a buyer, which, according to concluded deals, tended to fall, and according to market-makers' quotations varied differently (indicator's fluctuation amplitude exceeded its monthly change 2 times). Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in December of 2004. Change of KASE's securities lists in December of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 44 +3 88 +9 49 +1 B 34 +1 8 +1 32 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 78 +4 96 +10 79 +2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 2 0 0 0 2 -1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 80 +4 96 +10 80 0 -------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable CS at KASE in December of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ---------- CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 26,644.8 3,464.8 49 14.9 +1.27 EUBNb2 Eurasian bank JSC 23,085.0 3,002.0 3 12.9 - CCBNb6 Bank CenterCredit JSC 10,240.0 1,331.2 7 5.7 - KZIKb7 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 9,222.1 1,199.0 9 5.2 - VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 9,159.0 1,190.8 14 5.1 +0.78 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 7,163.9 931.3 3 4.0 - KKGBe2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 6,476.7 842.8 18 3.6 -2.54 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 4,721.4 613.8 3 2.6 +12.51 ROSA ROSA JSC 4,523.1 588.2 6 2.5 -10.72 CCBNb1 Bank CenterCredit JSC 4,404.6 572.7 10 2.5 +9.92 KZMS Corporation Kazakhmys JSC 4,206.4 547.0 9 2.4 -29.95 VTBNb2 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 4,150.2 539.5 6 2.3 - TEBN Temirbank JSC 4,096.3 532.7 14 2.3 -18.95 KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 3,840.4 500.0 39 2.2 +42.90 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 3,675.7 477.8 19 2.1 -1.88 NFBN Neftebank OJSC 3,169.2 412.2 36 1.8 +0.30 SAS_ S.A.S. JSC 3,000.0 390.0 2 1.7 - KZTCb1 KazTransCom JSC 2,927.4 380.9 7 1.6 +8.12 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 2,816.4 366.2 12 1.6 -3.63 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 2,781.7 361.6 9 1.6 +19.35 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 2,368.3 307.9 1 1.3 +16.43 ASFIb2 Astana-Finance JSC 2,305.7 299.9 5 1.3 +0.94 ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 2,222.4 289.2 2 1.2 -2.07 VTZL Kazyuvelirprom JSC 2,204.7 286.7 29 1.2 +5.87 ASBN Alliance Bank JSC 1,940.8 252.3 2 1.1 -1.62 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 1,848.1 240.3 7 1.0 -3.00 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 1,615.8 210.1 2 0.9 -4.18 ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,509.8 196.3 10 0.8 -9.62 CHFM Chimfarm JSC 1,397.7 181.7 3 0.8 +9.18 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 1,345.9 175.0 15 0.8 +25.00 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,291.8 167.9 3 0.7 +1.85 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 1,159.7 150.8 1 0.7 +1.82 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 1,065.8 138.6 5 0.6 -1.37 VTZLb1 Kazyuvelirprom JSC 992.0 129.0 1 0.6 +0.24 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 962.0 125.2 2 0.5 +31.17 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 959.0 124.7 3 0.5 +9.61 KZAPb1 NAC Kazatomprom 936.2 121.7 1 0.5 -1.66 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 930.3 120.9 2 0.5 -1.25 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 765.9 99.6 1 0.4 +1.80 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 761.7 99.0 8 0.4 -20.00 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 675.6 87.8 2 0.4 -20.00 ZERD Zerde OJSC 669.9 87.1 12 0.4 +2.98 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 669.8 87.1 2 0.4 0 ALKSb2 Almaty Kus OJSC 545.6 71.0 6 0.3 +22.13 BTAIb1 BTA Ipoteka JSC 538.9 70.1 3 0.3 +0.65 KKGBe3 Kazkommerts International B.V. 500.8 65.2 1 0.3 +1.26 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 493.7 64.2 3 0.3 -6.55 KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 492.7 64.1 4 0.3 +3.92 RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 465.4 60.5 4 0.3 +0.81 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 425.9 55.4 2 0.2 -3.95 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 406.1 52.8 4 0.2 +0.89 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 393.8 51.2 1 0.2 -2.13 MREKb1 Mangistau distributing electricity network company OJSC 391.9 50.9 2 0.2 +2.68 BRKZb1 Development Bank of Kazakhstan JSC 338.4 44.0 1 0.2 -3.32 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 233.7 30.4 1 0.1 +3.46 KZTOe1 KazTransOil JSC 218.4 28.4 1 0.1 -0.33 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 206.8 26.9 4 0.1 +1.60 VTBNb1 Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 180.6 23.5 1 0.1 +1.02 KKGBe4 Kazkommerts International B.V. 169.5 22.0 1 0.1 -2.75 KZALb1 Mining-smelting concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 161.0 20.9 2 0.1 +0.01 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARM OJSC 155.9 20.3 2 0.1 +0.91 MMGZp Mangistaumunaygas OJSC 148.8 19.3 3 0.1 +14.29 NRBN Nurbank JSC 123.4 16.1 1 0.1 - CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 115.2 15.0 1 0.1 -2.91 ARNAb1 ARNA OJSC 112.6 14.7 4 0.1 +3.76 HSBKp Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 100.0 13.0 3 0.1 +3,469.39 HSBK Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 99.3 12.9 3 0.1 +23,310.07 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 52.8 6.9 3 0.03 -1.60 VTZLp Kazyuvelirprom JSC 50.0 6.5 1 0.03 -2.91 CSBNp BANK CASPIAN JSC 46.1 6.0 1 0.03 +12,752.65 NRBNp6 Nurbank JSC 40.8 5.3 5 0.02 +1.90 NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 40.1 5.2 5 0.02 +18.46 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 26.0 3.4 4 0.01 -7.66 CLAS CLAscAS OJSC 23.7 3.1 1 0.01 +59.90 NRBNb1 Nurbank JSC 23.1 3.0 2 0.01 +0.77 AMGZp CNPC - Aktobemunaygas OJSC 21.8 2.8 1 0.01 -1.46 UTMKp Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-magnesium plant JSC 21.4 2.8 3 0.01 +27.00 ATFBb2 ATFBank JSC 11.7 1.5 1 0.01 +4.63 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 7.4 1.0 2 0.004 +15.56 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 4.0 0.5 1 0.002 -3.29 AMGZ CNPC - Aktobemunaygas OJSC 1.4 0.2 1 0.001 +76.31 ALKZp Aluminium of Kazakstan JSC 0.9 0.1 6 0.001 -11.11 RAHT Rakhat OJSC 0.7 0.1 3 <0.001 -68.00 KZCRp TNC Kazchrome JSC 0.3 0.0 2 <0.001 0 -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ---------- TOTAL 84 178,293.9 23,184.4 494 100.0 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in December of 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 30.11.04 3,954.8 207.47 4,782.8 7.54 166.76 10,501.6 01.12.04 3,957.2 208.80 4,791.5 7.76 165.68 5,606.5 02.12.04 3,955.1 208.81 4,790.3 7.53 167.85 4,400.6 03.12.04 4,066.6 209.62 4,752.4 7.54 167.14 7,102.3 06.12.04 4,097.7 210.45 4,751.7 7.48 167.67 2,347.0 07.12.04 4,244.9 208.56 4,751.3 7.51 167.45 2,598.8 08.12.04 4,238.3 213.10 4,755.8 7.49 167.66 5,984.7 09.12.04 4,192.2 213.21 4,756.6 7.46 167.82 7,931.9 10.12.04 5,616.6 214.40 4,780.3 7.48 167.96 8,492.5 13.12.04 5,635.3 213.75 4,783.0 7.46 167.95 7,370.0 14.12.04 5,635.7 213.45 4,852.7 7.46 168.03 28,594.3 15.12.04 5,169.5 218.41 4,882.8 7.41 168.27 5,636.8 20.12.04 5,875.8 220.81 4,889.8 7.44 168.38 2,459.4 21.12.04 6,009.4 219.93 4,889.9 7.47 168.24 7,391.5 22.12.04 6,007.9 212.55 5,135.2 7.42 168.56 14,637.6 23.12.04 3,964.2 214.39 5,129.8 7.68 167.24 5,506.1 24.12.04 3,856.9 213.24 5,134.1 7.49 168.33 9,766.5 27.12.04 3,864.7 214.02 5,145.3 7.47 168.58 8,790.3 28.12.04 3,876.8 215.39 5,146.0 7.48 168.73 5,260.5 29.12.04 3,875.7 214.75 5,231.5 7.41 169.37 8,777.9 30.12.04 3,866.2 213.29 5,277.8 7.55 168.48 22,136.6 31.12.04 3,940.7 213.37 5,275.8 7.70 167.63 8,458.8 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +2.4 +1.33 +8.7 +0.22 -1.08 +0.1% +0.6% +0.2% +2.9% -0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2005-01-18]