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Market and Company News
18.01.2005 11:08

ANALYSIS: In December of 2004 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE rose by 42.4% to $179.3 m.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 18, 05, resent due to mistakes made in the last table/ - In December of 2004 at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 495 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT23,308.8 m. or $179.3 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated sum is 2.3% of monthly exchange turnover (in November - 1.9%).

In comparison with November of 2004 volume of transactions has grown by $53.4 m. (KZT6.9 bn.) or by 42.4% (by 41.8% in terms of tenge). Relative to December of 2003 volume of transactions has fallen by $27.3 m. (KZT6,705.0 m.) or by 13.2% (by 22.3% in terms of tenge).

Structure of CS turnover at KASE in December is presented in the following way: 19.4% ($34,750.9 th.) of all conducted deals fell to the stake of primary offerings; stake of purchase and sale sector was 80.1% ($143,543.0 th.);
stake of SBS was 0.5% ($956.5 th.). Structure of exchange's CS market in November of 2004 was as follows: the stake of primary offerings was 2.6% of transactions volume ($3,216.2 th.), purchase and sale sector - 97.4% ($122,648.4 th.).

MARKET OF STATE BLOCKS OF SHARES

In December, after a long break, trades - the second and the last ones in year 2004, were held in this sector. Initiator of these trades was the Committee of state property and privatization of the Ministry of finance of Kazakhstan, which, through the mediation of RSE Information-stocking center (Almaty), on December 3 of 2004 exhibited by non-divisible lot the shareholding consisting of 12,955 common shares of Alliance Bank JSC (1.85% of total paid number of floated shares of Alliance Bank JSC) at the exchange under NZ_ASBN symbol.

The shareholding was traded for 9 days. In that period the seller by making 15 bids decreased offer price of one share of the SBS from KZT13,000.00 ($99.95) to deal amount. Demand price grew by KZT100.00 from KZT9,600.00 ($73.83) per security. Trades on December 15 were successful, the SBS was sold at KZT9,600.00 per share or USD73.83 at the current exchange's rate effective on deal making date (KZT130.03 per dollar). Sum of the deal was KZT124,368,000.00 or equivalent of USD956,456.20.

Common shares of Alliance Bank JSC (KZ1C40310019; KASE's official "A" listing category, ASBN, face value is KZT10,000) are traded in KASE's secondary market sector since February 2 of 2004. During the whole period of trades until December 15 of 2004 6 deals were made in 61,216 of these shares for a total of KZT511.4 m. Prices of some deals varied from KZT6,993.88 per share ($50.18) to KZT12,000.00 ($92.18). Weighted average price on all deals concluded on exchange's secondary market was KZT8,651.08 per share ($63.82).

It should be noted that the mentioned shareholding did not arouse any considerable interest of brokers. Buyers' incompliance was explained by small stake of the SBS in bank's authorized capital, absence of guaranteed income on instruments, which the shareholding consisted of, and also by the origin of shareholding, which passed into the ownership of the state because of non-fulfillment of obligations on taxes and other compulsory budget payments by one of private shareholders of Alliance Bank JSC.

SHARE MARKET

Volume of deals volume in this segment grew in December by 26.3% or by $15.1 m. to $72.5 m. Number of shares involved into deals in December grew from 27 to 36, and number of deals grew from 248 to 301. Average volume of on transaction grew up to KZT31.3 m. ($240.8 th.) in December from KZT30.3 m. ($231.3 th.) in November. In December 72.5% of deals in shares in quantitative expression and 73% in volumetric expression wre direct. Corresponding indicators of November - 79% and 62%.

Statistical characteristics of share market can be also described by parameters of market's concentration. 5% of total number of shares, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of December (i.e. 4 shares - CCBN, VTBN, ROSA, KZMS), formed 61.4% of exchange's turnover. Similar indicator of November - 54.0%.

Among favorites there were common shares of Bank CenterCredit JSC (CCBN, 36.8% of share turnover, 49 deals). The "top-5" in December also comprised VTBN (12.6%), ROSA (6.2%), KZMS (5.8%) and TEBN (5.7%). We're reminding that in November 5 positions of the rating belonged to CCBN (22.1%), ATFB (11.2%), ORDB (10.5%), VTBN (10.2%) and VTBNp (6.7% of the whole share market).

Within the month weighted average daily prices of 19 shares out of 36 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 13 ones fell, prices of 2 shares remained on the same level. Two instruments - common shares of S.A.S. JSC (SAS_) and Nurbank OJSC (NRBN) first in the analyzed month received market estimation at KASE. HSBK grew most of all (234.1 times), RAHT fell most of all (3.1 times).

KASE_Shares index grew within the month by 0.6% due to positive change of demand prices of KANT, VTBNp, HSBK, ORDBp, VTBN, KKGBp and BTAS.

The described segment was notable with non-ordinary events in December.

First of all it concerns de-listing of KZMS - common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC (Jezkazgan) on account of its reorganization as limited liability partnership. This is a great loss for Kazakhstan stock market for these shares were most tradable CS at KASE within the years 2002 - 2004. Besides, KZMS were one of few instruments, which were traded at the exchange on the market principle. Their price reacted to the events, which occurred in issuer's life, that is not typical for Kazakhstan share market, which is represented mainly by direct deals of financing guaranteed by securities or by mutual reckonings of trade participants.

In December there was an unexampled, non-market by the origin fluctuation of prices of three shares at a time: HSBK, HSBKp and CSBNp. The abrupt growth of prices was fixed in several direct deals in these shares on December 15, which, as their broker says, were the result of fulfillment of client's order. Most probably, by reselling shares broker's clients made some mutual reckonings. And on the reason they had few shares, it was necessary to increase prices improperly highly, in order to achieve the desired result. So highly that KASE decided to exclude these shares from calculation of its share market's capitalization. Precisely on the described reason, following results of December, weighted average price of HSBK has grown by 23,310.1%, HSBKp - by 3,469.4%, CSBNp - by 12,752.7%.

First deals made in SAS_ were interesting in December. Book value of share as of October 1 of 2004 was KZT9,720.63, and two direct deals were made at KASE at KZT1,040,000.00 and KZT866,666.67 per security. Having no reasons to consider these shares rate as incorrect, KASE took into account the shown prices in market's capitalization calculation that let almost entirely compensate losses of capitalization after de-listing of shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC.

Among positive things of December's market there was the marked activation of trading at KASE in privileged shares Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGBp). Starting since December 8 deals in KKGBp were made at the exchange almost every day, and they were made mainly in trade mode i.e. were market deals. Due to brokers' interest these shares took the second position by the number of conducted transactions in the analyzed month having only yielded to the traditional favorite - CCBN. In share trading rating KKGBp took the sixth place by the volume of deals (see tables below).

A total of 7 exchange's members took part in making of deals in KKGBp at KASE in December, they operated with 10 depo accounts. Volume of one deal varied from 10 to 3,369,970 shares and was in the average 138,947 securities. Rate of KKGBp changed from KZT90.01 to KZT139.00, the price did not depend on the size of resold shareholding. According to results of the month weighted average daily rate of KKGBp has grown by 42.9% from KZT89.00 to KZT127.18. This growth is within the spread of compulsory quotations of the market-maker (Kazkommerts Securities OJSC), which in the whole month was not 50% of purchasing quotations already (in the beginning of the month market-maker quoted KKGBp at KZT85.00/127.50 per security, in the end - at KZT139.00/208.50).

As the whole it's possible to say Kazakhstan share market began to change positively. Precedents of verily market trading with shares come more and more often. Although there is still no well-grounded optimism.

CORPORATE BOND MARKET

This segment was considerably changed in comparison with November. Volume of deals has grown 1.5 times (by $37,321.0 th.) to $105.8 m. Range of securities involved into deals has increased only by 2 instruments (46 - in November), number of deals has grown from 149 to 193. Average volume of deal has grown from KZT60.0 m. ($459.7 th.) to KZT71.3 bn. ($548.3 th.). The stake of direct deals was 26.4% of transactions in quantitative expression and 14.0% in volumetric. In November - 19% and 26.1%.

5% of bonds, which were included in KASE's trade lists as of the end of December (4 securities - EUBNb2, CCBNb6, KZIKb7, ASBNb3), formed 47.0% of the exchange's turnover including primary offerings. Similar indicator of market's concentration in November was 38.4%, in October - 43.4%.

In December appearance of bond market was in great degree determined by new issues. Precisely they, due to the primary offering at KASE, were leading in "the top 4" by the volume of made deals illustrating main interest of market's participants. However leadership of the favorites was not contrasting (see table below). Brokers were working with a wide range of securities. In December 20 instruments had higher than USD1 m. turnover. In December BTASb4 were leading by the number of made deals (19 deals). KKGBe2 were after them (18 deals) and KZASb2 (9). It's notable that bond's liquidity degree at KASE almost did not depend on the methods of their holder's income indexation.

In December weighted average daily prices of 26 securities out of 48 ones involved into deals grew, prices of 17 - fell. There was nothing to compare prices of 5 new bonds with. ALKSb2 grew most of all (by 22.1%), TSBNb1 fell most of all (by 4.2%). Weighted average daily dirty prices of 8 bonds grew by 5% and more, and prices of no security fell so considerably. Results of statistical analysis show that dollar bonds and bonds indexed on devaluation of tenge against dollar (without protection from revaluation) tended to fall more than other. Non-indexed tenge instruments and bonds protected from inflation risks were prevailing in the list of instruments growing in price.

Yields of 14 bonds to maturity for a buyer grew in December, yields of 29 - fell.

KASE_B* indexes had very high volatility in December. Market-makers of several securities (mainly BTASb4, KZIKb3, KZIKb6, KARMb2) actively moved quotations in the second half of the month, and as the result daily fluctuation amplitude of KASE_BY used to reach 30 basis points (4%). Specialists or IRBIS explain market-makers' behavior by the necessity t made the final deals of the year, when prices and quotations usually have the grown fluctuation amplitude. As the whole in December KASE_BY worked out a sub-horizontal correcting movement within the frameworks of the global descending trend, which had been formed in the beginning of May of 2004.

Summarizing everything concerning the described segment it should be said that major regularities of December are:

  • increased interest of brokers in bonds of new issues;
  • insignificant prevalence of demand for bonds over offer in purchase and sale sector of KASE's secondary market;
  • minimal change of bonds' yields to maturity for a buyer, which, according to concluded deals, tended to fall, and according to market-makers' quotations varied differently (indicator's fluctuation amplitude exceeded its monthly change 2 times).

Below are statistical and supplemental information characterizing the CS market at KASE in December of 2004.

Change of KASE's securities lists in December of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month)

--------------------------------------------------------
                   Shares:         Bonds:       Issuers:
Category of  -------------  -------------  -------------
admission    number  trend  number  trend  number  trend
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A                44     +3      88     +9      49     +1
B                34     +1       8     +1      32     +1
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A+B              78     +4      96    +10      79     +2
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
N                 2      0       0      0       2     -1
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
TOTAL            80     +4      96    +10      80      0
--------------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing
category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Most tradable CS at KASE in December of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      Volume of deals:
 Code    Brief                      --------- --------   Num- Market      Price
of       name of                          th.       m. ber of share,    change,
security issuer                           USD      KZT  deals      %          %
-------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ----------
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit JSC       26,644.8  3,464.8     49   14.9      +1.27
EUBNb2   Eurasian bank JSC           23,085.0  3,002.0      3   12.9          -
CCBNb6   Bank CenterCredit JSC       10,240.0  1,331.2      7    5.7          -
KZIKb7   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  9,222.1  1,199.0      9    5.2          -
VTBN     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       9,159.0  1,190.8     14    5.1      +0.78
ASBNb3   Alliance Bank JSC            7,163.9    931.3      3    4.0          -
KKGBe2   Kazkommertsbank JSC          6,476.7    842.8     18    3.6      -2.54
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC           4,721.4    613.8      3    2.6     +12.51
ROSA     ROSA JSC                     4,523.1    588.2      6    2.5     -10.72
CCBNb1   Bank CenterCredit JSC        4,404.6    572.7     10    2.5      +9.92
KZMS     Corporation Kazakhmys JSC    4,206.4    547.0      9    2.4     -29.95
VTBNb2   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       4,150.2    539.5      6    2.3          -
TEBN     Temirbank JSC                4,096.3    532.7     14    2.3     -18.95
KKGBp    Kazkommertsbank JSC          3,840.4    500.0     39    2.2     +42.90
BTASb4   Bank TuranAlem JSC           3,675.7    477.8     19    2.1      -1.88
NFBN     Neftebank OJSC               3,169.2    412.2     36    1.8      +0.30
SAS_     S.A.S. JSC                   3,000.0    390.0      2    1.7          -
KZTCb1   KazTransCom JSC              2,927.4    380.9      7    1.6      +8.12
KZASb2   KOSTANAY
         MINERALS JSC                 2,816.4    366.2     12    1.6      -3.63
KZIKb3   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  2,781.7    361.6      9    1.6     +19.35
ASBNb1   Alliance Bank JSC            2,368.3    307.9      1    1.3     +16.43
ASFIb2   Astana-Finance JSC           2,305.7    299.9      5    1.3      +0.94
ASFIb3   Astana-Finance JSC           2,222.4    289.2      2    1.2      -2.07
VTZL     Kazyuvelirprom JSC           2,204.7    286.7     29    1.2      +5.87
ASBN     Alliance Bank JSC            1,940.8    252.3      2    1.1      -1.62
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                  1,848.1    240.3      7    1.0      -3.00
TSBNb1   Tsesnabank JSC               1,615.8    210.1      2    0.9      -4.18
ORDB     Corporation Ordabasy JSC     1,509.8    196.3     10    0.8      -9.62
CHFM     Chimfarm JSC                 1,397.7    181.7      3    0.8      +9.18
ALKS     Almaty Kus OJSC              1,345.9    175.0     15    0.8     +25.00
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                  1,291.8    167.9      3    0.7      +1.85
KZPSb1   Kazpost JSC                  1,159.7    150.8      1    0.7      +1.82
TXBNb2   TEXAKABANK JSC               1,065.8    138.6      5    0.6      -1.37
VTZLb1   Kazyuvelirprom JSC             992.0    129.0      1    0.6      +0.24
HRLT     CHARALTYN JSC                  962.0    125.2      2    0.5     +31.17
KZIKb6   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                    959.0    124.7      3    0.5      +9.61
KZAPb1   NAC Kazatomprom                936.2    121.7      1    0.5      -1.66
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC             930.3    120.9      2    0.5      -1.25
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC              765.9     99.6      1    0.4      +1.80
ATFBp    ATFBank JSC                    761.7     99.0      8    0.4     -20.00
ATFBp8   ATFBank JSC                    675.6     87.8      2    0.4     -20.00
ZERD     Zerde OJSC                     669.9     87.1     12    0.4      +2.98
ASFI     Astana-Finance JSC             669.8     87.1      2    0.4          0
ALKSb2   Almaty Kus OJSC                545.6     71.0      6    0.3     +22.13
BTAIb1   BTA Ipoteka JSC                538.9     70.1      3    0.3      +0.65
KKGBe3   Kazkommerts
         International B.V.             500.8     65.2      1    0.3      +1.26
BTAS     Bank TuranAlem JSC             493.7     64.2      3    0.3      -6.55
KZTK     Kazakhtelecom JSC              492.7     64.1      4    0.3      +3.92
RGBRb3   RG Brands JSC                  465.4     60.5      4    0.3      +0.81
HSBKb3   Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 425.9     55.4      2    0.2      -3.95
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC                       406.1     52.8      4    0.2      +0.89
KZIKb5   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                    393.8     51.2      1    0.2      -2.13
MREKb1   Mangistau distributing
         electricity network
         company OJSC                   391.9     50.9      2    0.2      +2.68
BRKZb1   Development Bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC              338.4     44.0      1    0.2      -3.32
TEBNb2   Temirbank JSC                  233.7     30.4      1    0.1      +3.46
KZTOe1   KazTransOil JSC                218.4     28.4      1    0.1      -0.33
ASFIb4   Astana-Finance JSC             206.8     26.9      4    0.1      +1.60
VTBNb1   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC         180.6     23.5      1    0.1      +1.02
KKGBe4   Kazkommerts
         International B.V.             169.5     22.0      1    0.1      -2.75
KZALb1   Mining-smelting concern
         Kazakhaltyn JSC                161.0     20.9      2    0.1      +0.01
UKPFb1   UST-KAMENOGORSK
         POULTRY FARM OJSC              155.9     20.3      2    0.1      +0.91
MMGZp    Mangistaumunaygas OJSC         148.8     19.3      3    0.1     +14.29
NRBN     Nurbank JSC                    123.4     16.1      1    0.1          -
CSBNb3   BANK CASPIAN JSC               115.2     15.0      1    0.1      -2.91
ARNAb1   ARNA OJSC                      112.6     14.7      4    0.1      +3.76
HSBKp    Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 100.0     13.0      3    0.1  +3,469.39
HSBK     Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                  99.3     12.9      3    0.1 +23,310.07
HSBKb    Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                  52.8      6.9      3   0.03      -1.60
VTZLp    Kazyuvelirprom JSC              50.0      6.5      1   0.03      -2.91
CSBNp    BANK CASPIAN JSC                46.1      6.0      1   0.03 +12,752.65
NRBNp6   Nurbank JSC                     40.8      5.3      5   0.02      +1.90
NRBNb2   Nurbank JSC                     40.1      5.2      5   0.02     +18.46
KZTKp    Kazakhtelecom JSC               26.0      3.4      4   0.01      -7.66
CLAS     CLAscAS OJSC                    23.7      3.1      1   0.01     +59.90
NRBNb1   Nurbank JSC                     23.1      3.0      2   0.01      +0.77
AMGZp    CNPC -
         Aktobemunaygas OJSC             21.8      2.8      1   0.01      -1.46
UTMKp    Ust-Kamenogorsk
         titanium-magnesium
         plant JSC                       21.4      2.8      3   0.01     +27.00
ATFBb2   ATFBank JSC                     11.7      1.5      1   0.01      +4.63
KZZN     KAZZINC JSC                      7.4      1.0      2  0.004     +15.56
KKGBb2   Kazkommertsbank JSC              4.0      0.5      1  0.002      -3.29
AMGZ     CNPC -
         Aktobemunaygas OJSC              1.4      0.2      1  0.001     +76.31
ALKZp    Aluminium of Kazakstan JSC       0.9      0.1      6  0.001     -11.11
RAHT     Rakhat OJSC                      0.7      0.1      3 <0.001     -68.00
KZCRp    TNC Kazchrome JSC                0.3      0.0      2 <0.001          0
-------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ----------
TOTAL    84                         178,293.9 23,184.4    494  100.0          -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of
deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the
following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" -
eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the
bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first
issue.

Table of main indicators of the exchange's CS market in December of 2004

------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Capitaliza-          Capitaliza-
                 tion                 tion         Bond value  Volume of
               of the               of the             index,   purchase
                share                bonds  Bonds   including   and sale
              market,   Share      market,  yield       accum     deals,
Date           m. USD   index       m. USD  index    interest    th. USD
--------  -----------  ------  -----------  -----  ----------  ---------
30.11.04      3,954.8  207.47      4,782.8   7.54      166.76   10,501.6
01.12.04      3,957.2  208.80      4,791.5   7.76      165.68    5,606.5
02.12.04      3,955.1  208.81      4,790.3   7.53      167.85    4,400.6
03.12.04      4,066.6  209.62      4,752.4   7.54      167.14    7,102.3
06.12.04      4,097.7  210.45      4,751.7   7.48      167.67    2,347.0
07.12.04      4,244.9  208.56      4,751.3   7.51      167.45    2,598.8
08.12.04      4,238.3  213.10      4,755.8   7.49      167.66    5,984.7
09.12.04      4,192.2  213.21      4,756.6   7.46      167.82    7,931.9
10.12.04      5,616.6  214.40      4,780.3   7.48      167.96    8,492.5
13.12.04      5,635.3  213.75      4,783.0   7.46      167.95    7,370.0
14.12.04      5,635.7  213.45      4,852.7   7.46      168.03   28,594.3
15.12.04      5,169.5  218.41      4,882.8   7.41      168.27    5,636.8
20.12.04      5,875.8  220.81      4,889.8   7.44      168.38    2,459.4
21.12.04      6,009.4  219.93      4,889.9   7.47      168.24    7,391.5
22.12.04      6,007.9  212.55      5,135.2   7.42      168.56   14,637.6
23.12.04      3,964.2  214.39      5,129.8   7.68      167.24    5,506.1
24.12.04      3,856.9  213.24      5,134.1   7.49      168.33    9,766.5
27.12.04      3,864.7  214.02      5,145.3   7.47      168.58    8,790.3
28.12.04      3,876.8  215.39      5,146.0   7.48      168.73    5,260.5
29.12.04      3,875.7  214.75      5,231.5   7.41      169.37    8,777.9
30.12.04      3,866.2  213.29      5,277.8   7.55      168.48   22,136.6
31.12.04      3,940.7  213.37      5,275.8   7.70      167.63    8,458.8
--------  -----------  ------  -----------  -----  ----------  ---------
Trend            +2.4   +1.33         +8.7  +0.22       -1.08
                +0.1%   +0.6%        +0.2%  +2.9%       -0.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on
the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category,
including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the
bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating
on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the
number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market
values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead.
Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market
capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of
the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued
shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the
face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the
rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY)
- weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of
category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals
or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds
yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through
capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the
KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of
the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes
the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at
KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.

[2005-01-18]