EN
2 April 2025, 07:16
Go to old.kase.kz
English
Information/
Market and Company News
10.01.2005 11:08

ANALYSIS: As of January 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS reached KZT758.7 bn. or $5,836.3 m. along with servicing

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 10, 05/ - As of January 1 of 2005 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including compensating (MAOKO) and municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT758.7 bn., or $5,836.3 m. at the rate of KZT130.00 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis them amounts of future MEIKAM payments were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from October till December of 2004.

Since December 1 till December 31 of 2004 total debt increased by KZT18.2 bn. (+2.46%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account changes of the National Bank's rate) - by 140.8 m. (+2.47%). Corresponding indicators of debt change in November of 2004 were +KZT33.4 bn. (+4.72%) or +$338.3 m. (+6.32%).

Following table contains detailed information.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Amount and structure of debt          Change
                                 ----------------------------         for the
                    *Currency of             as of                     period
                    ------------        Dec 31, 04      as of ---------------
                          servi- ----------------- Nov 30, 04
Issuer              issue cing    bn. KZT stake, %    bn. KZT    m. KZT     %
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
National Bank       KZT   KZT     407.667     53.7    357.788 +49,879.2 +13.9
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
Ministry of Finance               341.919     45.1    372.647 -30,728.1  -8.2
incl. face value                  281.600     37.1    310.757 -29,156.8  -9.4
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT     236.100     31.1    265.250 -29,149.8 -11.0
also, euronotes     USD   USD      45.500      6.0     45.507      -7.0 -0.02
incl. servicing                    60.319      8.0     61.890  -1,571.3  -2.5
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT      47.664      6.3     49.234  -1,569.3  -3.2
also, euronotes     USD   USD      12.655      1.7     12.657      -1.9 -0.02
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
Municipals          USD   KZT       9.134      1.2     10.092    -957.8  -9.5
incl. face value    USD   KZT       7.591      1.0      8.458    -866.8 -10.2
incl. servicing     USD   KZT       1.543      0.2      1.634     -91.0  -5.6
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD   KZT       3.821      0.5      4.778    -957.0 -20.0
also, face value    USD   KZT       3.326      0.4      4.192    -866.1 -20.7
also, servicing     USD   KZT       0.495      0.1      0.585     -90.9 -15.5
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. Atyrau region USD   KZT       4.677      0.6      4.678      -0.7 -0.02
akimat
also, face value    USD   KZT       3.679      0.5      3.679         0     0
also, servicing     USD   KZT       0.999      0.1      0.999         0     0
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. E-Kz          USD   KZT       0.636      0.1      0.636         0     0
region akimat
also, face value    USD   KZT       0.587      0.1      0.587         0     0
also, servicing     USD   KZT       0.050     0.01      0.050         0     0
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
TOTAL                             758.721    100.0    740.528 +18,193.2  +2.5
incl. face value                  696.859     91.8    677.003 +19,855.5  +2.9
incl. Servicing                    61.862      8.2     63.524  -1,662.3  -2.6
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT   KZT     700.566     92.3    682.364 +18,202.2  +2.7
also, face value    KZT   KZT     651.359     85.8    631.496 +19,862.5  +3.1
also, servicing     KZT   KZT      49.207      6.5     50.868  -1,660.4  -3.3
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- --------- -----
incl. external debt USD   USD      58.155      7.7     58.164      -8.9 -0.02
also, face value    USD   USD      45.500      6.0     45.507      -7.0 -0.02
also, servicing     USD   USD      12.655      1.7     12.657      -1.9 -0.02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
  expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of
  the rate of tenge to US dollar.

Equivalents as of December 31, 04 were calculated at the rate of KZT130.00 per dollar, as of November 30, 04 - at KZT130.02. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflects the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.

Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the following table.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Amount and structure of debt           Change
                                 ----------------------------          for the
                    *Currency of             as of                      period
                    ------------        Dec 31, 04      as of ----------------
                          servi- ----------------- Nov 30, 04
Issuer              issue cing     m. USD stake, %     m. USD    th. USD     %
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
National Bank       KZT   KZT     3,135.9     53.7    2,751.8 +384,109.3 +14.0
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Ministry of Finance               2,630.1     45.1    2,866.1 -235,929.2  -8.2
incl. face value                  2,166.2     37.1    2,390.1 -223,915.6 -9.37
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT     1,816.2     31.1    2,040.1 -223,915.6 -11.0
also, euronotes     USD   USD       350.0      6.0      350.0          0     0
incl. servicing                     464.0      8.0      476.0  -12,013.6  -2.5
also, domestic GS   KZT,
                    USD   KZT       366.6      6.3      378.7  -12,013.6  -3.2
also, euronotes     USD   USD        97.3      1.7       97.3          0     0
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Municipals          USD   KZT        70.3      1.2       77.6   -7,356.0  -9.5
incl. face value    USD   KZT        58.4      1.0       65.1   -6,657.7 -10.2
incl. servicing     USD   KZT        11.9      0.2       12.6     -698.3  -5.6
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Astana        USD   KZT        29.4      0.5       36.7   -7,356.0 -20.0
akimat
also, face value    USD   KZT        25.6      0.4       32.2   -6,657.7 -20.6
also, servicing     USD   KZT         3.8      0.1        4.5     -698.3 -15.5
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Atyrau        USD   KZT        36.0      0.6       36.0          0     0
region akimat
also, face value    USD   KZT        28.3      0.5       28.3          0     0
also, servicing     USD   KZT         7.7      0.1        7.7          0     0
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. E-Kz region   USD   KZT         4.9      0.1        4.9          0     0
akimat
also, face value    USD   KZT         4.5      0.1        4.5          0     0
also, servicing     USD   KZT         0.4     0.01        0.4          0     0
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
TOTAL                             5,836.3    100.0    5,695.5 +140,824.1  +2.5
incl. face value                  5,360.5     91.8    5,206.9 +153,536.0  +2.9
incl. Servicing                     475.9      8.2      488.6  -12,711.9  -2.6
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT   KZT     5,389.0     92.3    5,248.1 +140,824.1  +2.7
also, face value    KZT   KZT     5,010.5     85.8    4,856.9 +153,536.0  +3.2
also, servicing     KZT   KZT       378.5      6.5      391.2  -12,711.9  -3.2
------------------- ----- ------ -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. external debt USD   USD       447.3      7.7      447.3          0     0
also, face value    USD   USD       350.0      6.0      350.0          0     0
also, servicing     USD   USD        97.3      1.7       97.3          0     0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
  expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of
  the rate of tenge to US dollar.

According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in December by amounts of floatation was KZT85,864.3 m. (in November - KZT73,770.9 m.). Moreover, the issuer paid off its liabilities, including advance repayment, for a total of KZT36,607.5 m (KZT33,096.4 m.). December's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank at GS market totaled positive KZT49,256.7 m. Corresponding index of November - negative KZT40,674.6 m.

In December the Ministry of finance did not float its bonds. Total payments of coupons and face value of bonds at maturity amounted to KZT28,758.4 m. (7,432.2 m.). December's net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT28,758.4 m. (in November - negative KZT7,432.2 m.).

Total December's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT19,542.0 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more by the mentioned sum than redeemed). Corresponding indicator in November of 2004 - positive KZT33,118.0 m.

The shown data evidences that growth of the state debt issued as GS in the last month of 2004 was caused only by the National Bank' actions. As well as before, the head bank sterilized the market from "excessive" money by issuing its notes. But in December this sterilization was softer than in November. National Bank's position on note market was determined mainly by the events on the currency market, where USD lost its speculative attractiveness because of sterilization of the rate of tenge to dollar, and its offer volume in the country considerably decreased. This let the National Bank considerably reduce volume of dollar purchasing on domestic market that resulted in slow down of money supply expansion and decreased inflation risks. Under the appeared conditions falling of the monthly net- borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers from +KZT33.1 bn. in November to +KZ19.5 bn. in December seems to be justified.

IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above is not an official data since it was obtained through the analysis of the information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. Domestic bonds data are compared with data presented by Central securities depository CJSC (Almaty).

[2005-01-10]