ANALYSIS: In December of 2004 volume of deals in KASE's repo sector grew by 17.2% to KZT662.3 bn.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 6, 05/ - In December of 2004 Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) recorded 3,239 deals in the repo transactions sector for a total of KZT662.3 bn. or USD5,093.3 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. This is 66.5% of total turnover of KASE in this month (in November - 64.9%). In comparison with November of 2004 volume of transactions has increased by KZT97.1 bn. ($766.7 m.) or by 17.2% (by 17.7% in dollar terms). Relative to December of 2003 volume of transactions has increased by KZT359.1 bn. ($3,001.2 m.) or 2.2 times (2.4 times in dollar terms). Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in December was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 82.6% of the sector's turnover (KZT547.2 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 81.3% (KZT538.4 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 1.3% (KZT8.8 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions made by direct deals method, was 17.4% of the sector's turnover (KZT115.1 bn.), including deals in GS - 15.7% (KZT103.7 bn.), deals in CS - 1.7% (KZT11.4 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in November of 2004 was characterized by the following indexes: autorepo - 93.7% (GS - 92.5%; CS - 1.2%); direct method repo - 6.3% (GS - 3.9%; CS - 2.4%). The tables below characterize KASE's repo sector in December of 2004 on opening transactions in tenge (stake of the market in headings of tables is given in accordance with the actual volume of transactions, including repo opening and closing deals). Automatic repo in GS - 81.3% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- KZT_001 1.85 0.20 4.50 1.50 1.31 237,194.2 1,173 84.06 KZT_002 0.30 0.30 3.80 1.50 1.49 14,615.0 44 5.18 KZT_003 1.00 0.70 2.00 0.80 1.13 7,098.0 18 2.52 KZT_007 0.90 0.70 3.00 0.75 1.05 17,118.0 49 6.07 KZT_014 9.00 1.80 9.00 2.50 2.26 1,180.0 16 0.42 KZT_028 2.50 2.00 3.40 3.00 3.05 4,977.0 48 1.76 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 282,182.2 1,348 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo in CS - 1.3% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKS_028 7.50 117.0 1 2.59 ASFIb2_001 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 70.0 2 1.55 ASFIb2_002 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 100.0 2 2.21 ASFIb2_007 5.60 5.50 5.60 5.50 5.56 80.0 2 1.77 CCBN_014 7.00 15.0 1 0.33 CCBN_030 10.00 42.0 1 0.93 CCBNb3_028 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 250.0 2 5.53 HRLT_001 8.20 177.0 1 3.91 HRLT_007 8.20 177.0 1 3.91 HRLT_014 6.00 115.0 1 2.54 HRLT_028 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 220.0 2 4.86 HSBKb_001 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 298.0 4 6.59 HSBKb_002 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 170.0 2 3.76 HSBKb_007 5.60 4.00 5.60 4.00 4.77 163.0 2 3.60 KZASb2_007 12.00 10.00 12.00 10.00 11.00 80.0 2 1.77 KZASb2_028 10.00 40.0 1 0.88 KZTCb1_001 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 396.0 5 8.76 KZTCb1_007 5.60 5.50 5.60 5.50 5.57 214.0 2 4.73 ORDB_028 6.00 50.0 1 1.11 ORDBb1_001 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 504.0 6 11.14 ORDBb1_007 5.60 4.00 5.60 5.60 5.46 185.0 3 4.09 ORDBp_001 11.00 25.0 1 0.55 ORDBp_003 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 75.0 3 1.66 ORDBp_007 11.00 25.0 1 0.55 ORDBp_028 11.00 25.0 1 0.55 TEBN_030 9.00 7.80 10.00 10.00 9.25 185.0 4 4.09 TXBNb1_001 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 180.0 6 3.98 TXBNb1_007 5.60 5.50 5.60 5.50 5.55 60.0 2 1.33 VTBN_014 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 16.0 2 0.35 VTBN_028 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 177.0 3 3.91 VTBNb1_014 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 12.0 2 0.27 VTBNp_001 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 160.0 2 3.54 VTBNp_028 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.33 120.0 2 2.65 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 4,523.1 73 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals in GS - 15.7% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- 1 1.00 0.29 3.99 0.52 0.61 35,614.6 44 54.25 2 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 160.0 2 0.24 5 3.30 0.95 3.30 0.95 2.35 360.0 4 0.55 6 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 100.0 1 0.15 7 1.30 1.00 4.95 1.10 4.85 26,740.8 35 40.73 8 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 190.0 5 0.29 9 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 300.0 1 0.46 11 1.10 1.10 2.00 2.00 1.91 2,007.9 18 3.06 21 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 25.2 1 0.04 25 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 61.0 1 0.09 26 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 87.0 6 0.13 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ -------- TOTAL 65,646.5 118 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo on direct deals in CS - 1.7% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Subject Term of ------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of of repo, mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, repo days mum mum deal average KZT deals % -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKS 8 9.12 37.6 1 0.54 23 9.77 38.6 1 0.56 27 9.73 61.1 1 0.88 31 8.24 11.2 1 0.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 148.6 4 2.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ALKSb2 1 4.00 6.5 1 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ARNAb1 27 11.00 22.5 1 0.32 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBb3 32 1.94 48.0 1 0.69 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBp 9 4.79 17.1 1 0.25 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ATFBp8 7 4.80 14.0 1 0.20 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- BTASb4 1 221.87 53.8 1 0.77 5 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 18.5 3 0.27 6 5.50 66.0 1 0.95 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 138.3 5 1.99 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBN 1 1.82 3.65 3.65 2.93 188.5 5 2.71 7 3.17 8.19 8.19 4.89 115.1 2 1.66 10 6.02 47.3 1 0.68 12 8.21 100.1 1 1.44 31 9.01 9.01 9.01 9.01 176.0 3 2.53 33 8.24 8.24 8.24 8.24 80.0 2 1.15 88 9.35 28.0 1 0.40 90 8.52 108.0 1 1.55 182 10.00 250.0 1 3.60 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 1,093.0 17 15.72 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CCBNb6 18 7.50 20.1 1 0.29 32 7.00 421.6 1 6.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 441.8 2 6.35 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- CHFMb1 1 3.50 4.5 1 0.06 2 3.50 24.1 1 0.35 5 3.50 0.4 1 0.01 6 3.50 4.9 1 0.07 10 3.50 2.4 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 36.4 5 0.52 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb 30 8.00 23.0 1 0.33 31 11.00 20.0 1 0.29 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 43.0 2 0.62 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb2 31 8.00 9.9 1 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKb5 5 4.68 129.0 1 1.86 7 5.00 180.0 1 2.59 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 309.0 2 4.44 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- HSBKp 31 9.02 37.7 1 0.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KARMb2 21 2.00 2.0 1 0.03 32 2.00 16.1 1 0.23 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 18.1 2 0.26 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKGBe2 14 4.00 231.6 1 3.33 21 4.00 261.7 1 3.76 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 493.3 2 7.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KKGBp 31 3.03 10.0 1 0.14 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KTTH 2 4.02 16.4 1 0.24 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZASb2 32 5.00 100.0 1 1.44 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb1 33 13.00 2.0 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb4 14 2.19 144.4 1 2.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZIKb6 11 1.99 2.5 1 0.04 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTCb1 2 3.58 45.9 1 0.66 5 4.42 134.0 1 1.93 6 3.57 46.0 1 0.66 7 5.26 87.0 1 1.25 31 9.99 24.0 1 0.35 365 10.00 310.0 1 4.46 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 646.9 6 9.30 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTK 7 3.00 122.8 1 1.77 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- KZTKp 5 14.98 0.7 1 0.01 31 15.00 5.8 1 0.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 6.5 2 0.09 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NFBN 365 9.50 160.0 1 2.30 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- NRBNp6 1 3.03 94.0 1 1.35 7 5.00 55.0 1 0.79 14 5.50 39.0 1 0.56 31 9.50 5.0 1 0.07 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 193.0 4 2.78 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDB 11 5.99 0.6 1 0.01 31 6.00 10.00 10.00 7.01 36.7 2 0.53 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 37.3 3 0.54 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBb1 1 4.00 58.6 1 0.84 30 9.00 15.0 1 0.22 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 73.6 2 1.06 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- ORDBp 31 5.00 39.0 1 0.56 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- RGBRb3 3 4.62 15.2 1 0.22 24 5.16 40.0 1 0.58 27 11.09 26.3 1 0.38 31 6.46 100.1 1 1.44 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 181.6 4 2.61 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TEBN 8 4.98 5.02 5.02 4.99 56.9 2 0.82 27 8.04 155.5 1 2.24 31 8.00 19.9 1 0.29 33 10.00 2.0 1 0.03 62 9.00 155.5 1 2.24 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 389.7 6 5.61 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TXBNb2 31 5.97 150.0 1 2.16 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBN 1 3.42 20.0 1 0.29 8 5.94 59.2 1 0.85 14 4.97 6.52 6.52 5.77 80.2 3 1.15 17 5.97 17.0 1 0.24 20 8.50 16.2 1 0.23 23 4.49 7.0 1 0.10 26 10.00 68.7 1 0.99 28 10.50 100.0 1 1.44 31 10.01 11.99 10.01 10.06 258.7 5 3.72 91 10.50 10.0 1 0.14 182 3.00 9.00 9.00 4.37 337.0 2 4.85 271 3.50 13.6 1 0.20 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 987.7 19 14.21 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb1 7 2.50 6.0 1 0.09 14 2.50 20.0 1 0.29 20 8.50 9.0 1 0.13 24 5.70 61.0 1 0.88 26 10.00 18.3 1 0.26 30 9.50 30.0 1 0.43 91 10.50 75.0 1 1.08 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 219.3 7 3.15 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNb2 5 4.38 140.0 1 2.01 31 7.18 24.3 1 0.35 271 3.50 140.0 1 2.01 277 4.51 120.0 1 1.73 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 424.3 4 6.10 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTBNp 21 4.01 8.9 1 0.13 27 11.03 31.7 1 0.46 31 11.99 11.99 11.99 11.99 2.1 2 0.03 32 12.01 8.3 1 0.12 54 12.03 1.9 1 0.03 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 52.9 6 0.76 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTTHb1 7 11.99 6.9 1 0.10 47 11.92 0.4 1 0.01 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 7.4 2 0.11 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- VTZL 8 6.16 21.1 1 0.30 26 7.52 87.0 1 1.25 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- Subtotal 108.1 2 1.55 -------- ------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 6,952.7 125 100.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of stock exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals of Kazakhstan secondary market in December of 2004 was 95.1%, in November of 2004 - 95.3%. In comparison with November the exchange's repo market has changed not fundamentally, but considerably. The key influence was made by three factors: growth of National Bank's indicative rates of repo, credits and deposits in December; more active than in December sterilization of the market by the head bank's notes; stable rate of tenge against dollar, which decreased speculative attractiveness of US dollar. The mentioned factors, on one hand, promoted to growth of rates in the end of the year under the influence of falling of short-term tenge liquidity, on the other hand - caused money inflow to the repo market. It should be noted that growth of the sector's turnover was caused mainly by final accounting procedures of the year, which are typical for the end of December. In 2004 this factor was most considerable because the volume of the exchange's repo transactions within December 28 - 31 exceeded KZT50 bn. every day. At that participants, judging on the volume of transactions, preferred direct deals tat changed the structure of market's turnover (see above). National Bank, working actively with its notes, in December took more by KZT9 bn. from the market than in November. Besides, volume of dollar sale at the domestic market decreased. As the result, surplus of free national currency in circulation was not felt so much already. So changing of TONIA indicator was more traditional in December than in October and November. Diagram of the indicator drew a "hump" in the middle of the month, which is typical for the period of budget payments. However in December it did not reach the level of September and May. In January of the new year analysts or IRBIS do not expect any fundamental changes in the repo market. It's obvious that volume of repo transactions will fall, rates, most probably, will remain on the same level, and structure of the sector's turnover will strive for restoring doe to increase of the stake of the so called automatic repo transactions. [2005-01-06]