ANALYSIS: In November, 2004 volume of GS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 20.9% to USD125.9 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 13, 04/ - In November, 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) on corporate emission securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-operation sector) 397 transactions have been registered for total amount of KZT16,435.5 m or USD 125.9 m. at the current rate of concluded transactions. Above amount is 1.9% from total exchange turnover of the month (in October - 2.7%). In comparison with October 2004 volume of operations decreased in dollar term by USD33.3 m.(KZT4.8 bn.) or by 20.9% (in tenger term - by 22.5%). Relative to November 2003 trade volume of trades rose by USD20.5 m. (KZT959.3 m.) or in 19.5% (in 6.2% in tenge term). GS turnover structure at KASE in November looked in the following way: stake of primary floatation was 2.6% from the volume of all carried out transactions (USD3,216.2 th.), purchase and sale sector - 97.4% (USD122,648.4 th.), there was no transactions on government shares portfolio. NS stock exchange market in October 2004: stake of primary floatation was 4.2% from the volume operations (USD6,680.6 th.), purchase and sale sector - 95.8% (USD152,484.9 th.). Share market in November was characterized by decrease of transactions volume by 39.0% or by USD36.6 m. till equivalent USD57.4 m. Number of shares involved in November transactions, remained at the same level (27), and number of transactions increased from 230 to 248. Average volume of one operation carried out with shares decreased to KZT30.3 m. (USD231.3 th.) in November from KZT54.5 m. (USD408.6 th.) in October. In analyzed mionth. In analyzed month 79.0% transactions with shares in quantitative expression and 62% in volume were contractual (direct). Corresponding indicators of October - 87% and 84% accordingly. As it is seen from table CS trades at KASE in November (vide below), the market of stake instruments was characterized by weakly expressed favorites. Such may be called common shares of Bank CenterCredit (CCBN, 22.1% from shares circulation, 36 transactions). In November top-5 were also included ATFB (11.2%), ORDB (10.5%), VTBN (10.2%) and VTBNp (6.7%). We will remind, that in October Favorites were expressed more in contrast. The first 5 positions of rating were occupied by ORDB (37.1%), KZMS (28.0%), CCBN (6.7%), VTBN (6.6%) and VTBNp (4.5% from total shares market). From above figures we may conclude: In November brokers and their clients were interested in the same stake instruments, as in October. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, this is explained very simply: CCBN, ORDB, VTBN and VTBNp - traditionally loan instruments, which are used by a limited number of brokers in realization of their financial schemes. That is why rate of these shares change slightly and within horizontal price corridors during long time. Interest of brokers to KZMS и ATFB has principally different nature. It connected either with redistribution of property, or with speculative potential of share. Out of 27 names of shares, involved in November transactions, average weighted day prices grew during a month at twelve, decreased at eight, remained the same at seven. Leader of growth (in 2.0 times) became NFBN, fall (by 33.3%) - ROSA. KASE_Shares index grew during a month by 1.4% due to positive change of demand prices for KANT, HRLT, NRBNp6, CCBN and TEBN. It should be noted, that in November this index considerably varied. Nevertheless, on November 9 historical maximal figure of this indicator was fixed (table is below). Corporate bond market relative to October changed in minimal. Transactions volume grew by 5.1% or by USD3,305.0 th. Spectrum of involved securities in transactions expanded only by 2 instruments (44 - in October), number of transactions decreased from 164 to 149. In the result of average volume of transaction grew from KZT52.9 m. (USD397.5 th.) to KZT60.0 bn. (USD459.7 th.). Stake of direct (contractual) transactions was only 19% operations in quantitative and 26.1% in volume terms. Corresponding indexes of October - 22% and 21%. 5% from the number of instruments, included in trade KASE lists as at the end of the month (that is 4 bonds - BRKZb1, VTZLb1, CCBNb4, KKGBe2) was 38.4% of exchange circulation, including primary placements. Similar figure of the market concentration in October was 43.4%, in September - 51.1%. Out of 46 instruments, involved in November transactions, 26 securities were characterized by positive change of average shady prices, negative - 20. Along with this growth of bonds was less essential, than their fall. Leaders of growth (by 6.4%) became RGBRb3, fall (by 20.7%) - NRBNb2 (Nurbank OJSC). On concluded transactions yield of bonds to maturity for buyer grew in November at 25 securities, decreased at 21. The above figures certifies about minimal changes in November price market. This also certifies fall of indexes of KASE_B* series, represented in the third table. The table below is supplemental and statistical information characterizing CS market at KASE in November of 2004. Change of the lists of KASE securities in November of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 41 0 79 +3 48 -1 B 33 +1 7 0 31 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 74 +1 86 +3 77 -1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 3 +2 0 0 3 +2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 77 +3 86 +3 80 +1 -------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable corporate securities at KASE in November, 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and including primary floatation) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Volume of deals: Code Brief --------- -------- Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ---------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 12,657.3 1,650.2 36 10.1 +2.23 BRKZb1 Development Bank of Kazakhstan JSC 7,822.6 1,018.3 5 6.2 +4.75 VTZLb1 Kazuvelirprom JSC 7,726.6 1,011.5 5 6.1 +1.13 ATFB ATFBank JSC 6,442.0 849.6 3 5.1 0 ORDB Ordabasy Corporation JSC 6,015.3 783.6 16 4.8 -0.68 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 5,847.1 763.9 45 4.6 +0.95 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 5,470.3 712.6 8 4.3 -0.29 KKGBe2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 5,274.1 685.9 13 4.2 +3.66 CSBNb4 CASPIAN BANK JSC 5,226.1 683.3 7 4.2 +0.11 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 4,650.5 604.7 3 3.7 -3.20 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 4,143.5 539.5 4 3.3 +0.23 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 3,818.0 498.6 22 3.0 -1.78 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 3,636.3 475.2 28 2.9 -23.08 ORDBp Ordabasy Corporation JSC 3,480.9 458.6 3 2.8 -0.17 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 3,414.9 444.6 2 2.7 +1.60 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunai OJSC 3,283.8 428.5 4 2.6 +5.75 TEBN Temirbank JSC 3,171.7 414.4 8 2.5 0 KZASb2 KOSTANAI MINERALS JSC 2,947.6 383.8 4 2.3 +0.70 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 2,759.9 358.9 4 2.2 -0.06 BTASb4 TuranAlem Bank JSC 2,673.7 347.6 6 2.1 +0.87 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 2,488.7 326.7 7 2.0 -20.28 KZMS Kazakhmys Corporation JSC 2,304.9 299.8 3 1.8 +31.20 ATFBp8 ATFBank JSC 1,699.7 221.8 9 1.4 +25.00 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 1,652.7 216.8 4 1.3 -3.69 CHFMb1 Himfarm JSC 1,531.7 199.5 2 1.2 +5.46 TEBNb Temirbank JSC 1,310.9 170.5 1 1.0 +1.44 VTZL Kazuvelirprom JSC 1,258.9 164.5 15 1.0 +23.81 VTZLp Kazuvelirprom JSC 1,151.9 151.2 1 0.9 0 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,082.9 142.3 1 0.9 -3.69 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 1,047.7 137.0 11 0.8 +25.00 KZIKb2 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,002.3 132.2 1 0.8 +0.45 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 825.2 108.0 6 0.7 -4.72 HSBKb2 Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 793.3 103.2 4 0.6 +0.41 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 752.3 98.8 1 0.6 -3.59 NFBN Neftebank JSC 724.6 94.3 4 0.6 +100.00 ASBN Alliance Bank JSC 635.8 83.9 1 0.5 +0.28 MREKb1 Mangistau Electricity Grid Distribution Company OJSC 547.7 72.1 1 0.4 +2.70 ASFIb2 Astana-Finance JSC 489.3 63.6 4 0.4 +1.88 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 449.1 58.7 3 0.4 +3.05 BTAIb1 BTA Mortgage JSC 410.8 53.4 1 0.3 +0.75 ZERD Zerde OJSC 373.9 48.8 8 0.3 -2.89 TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK JSC 342.0 45.0 1 0.3 -0.60 ROSA ROSA JSC 327.2 42.6 5 0.3 -33.33 CCBNb1 Bank CenterCredit JSC 322.7 42.0 8 0.3 -10.54 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 316.9 41.7 1 0.3 +0.64 ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 257.6 33.8 2 0.2 +2.49 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 243.2 31.8 6 0.2 -3.41 CSBNb3 CASPIAN BANK JSC 153.4 19.9 1 0.1 +6.06 MMGZp Mangistaumunaigas OJSC 139.2 18.2 2 0.1 0 RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 115.6 15.0 3 0.1 +6.38 ALKSb2 Almaty Kus OJSC 109.3 14.2 9 0.1 -18.48 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 106.3 13.8 3 0.1 +4.97 KZIKb1 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 95.8 12.6 1 0.1 -3.10 KTTH Kaztorgtechnical OJSC 50.4 6.6 2 0.04 +1.83 KZTKp Kazkahtelecom OJSC 41.4 5.4 7 0.03 +16.96 KZPSb1 Kazpost JSC 39.4 5.2 1 0.03 -0.43 KZALb1 Kazakhaltyn mining and smelting concern JSC 38.8 5.0 2 0.03 +6.10 UTMK UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARMS OJSC 30.1 3.9 1 0.02 +2.87 NRBNb2 Nurbank OJSC 27.9 3.6 3 0.02 -20.74 KKGBe3 Kazkommerts International B.V. 19.5 2.5 1 0.02 -0.01 VTBNb1 Valut-Transit-Bank JSC 17.8 2.3 3 0.01 -1.09 ATFBb2 ATFBank JSC 13.7 1.8 1 0.01 -4.87 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 11.5 1.5 3 0.01 -3.90 NRBNb1 Nurbank OJSC 11.5 1.5 1 0.01 -4.32 ALKZp Aluminium Kazakhstan JSC 10.4 1.4 5 0.01 +1.12 NRBNp6 Nurbank OJSC 8.1 1.1 1 0.01 0 INCAb1 INTERGAS CENTRAL ASIA CJSC 7.6 1.0 1 0.01 +4.13 TSBN Tsesnabank JSC 3.8 0.5 1 0.003 -4.76 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARMS OJSC 2.4 0.3 1 0.002 -0.14 CSBN CASPIAN BANK JSC 1.8 0.2 1 0.001 0 HSBKb3 Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 1.7 0.2 2 0.001 +4.56 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 0.8 0.1 1 0.001 +3.57 KZCRp Kazchrome JSC 0.2 0.0 3 <0.001 0 -------- ---------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 73 125,864.5 16,435.5 397 100.0 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in November of 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 29.10.04 3,646.3 204.67 4,087.5 7.83 163.69 4,167.7 01.11.04 3,608.0 205.17 4,088.1 7.84 163.67 9,996.2 02.11.04 3,660.1 205.96 4,092.9 7.79 164.01 2,360.7 03.11.04 3,669.0 204.95 4,294.7 7.81 163.89 2,860.7 04.11.04 3,666.0 206.03 4,295.5 7.83 163.83 3,851.9 05.11.04 3,668.4 208.86 4,293.8 7.82 163.93 8,289.6 08.11.04 3,733.2 208.57 4,290.7 7.86 164.45 105.4 09.11.04 3,735.4 209.40 4,292.2 7.86 164.04 2,207.0 10.11.04 3,733.9 208.92 4,294.0 7.87 164.10 3,659.5 11.11.04 3,739.1 208.10 4,295.6 7.83 164.28 3,225.2 12.11.04 3,752.6 208.19 4,296.1 7.77 164.88 4,919.8 15.11.04 3,755.3 208.54 4,296.1 7.75 164.86 4,254.6 16.11.04 3,758.3 207.24 4,300.1 7.70 165.22 9,895.2 17.11.04 3,993.6 205.36 4,301.6 7.70 165.27 2,700.6 18.11.04 4,008.0 205.66 4,306.3 7.63 165.74 8,174.5 19.11.04 4,017.3 205.66 4,307.2 7.66 165.62 2,135.3 22.11.04 4,000.7 205.02 4,308.6 7.64 165.81 11,901.5 23.11.04 3,997.4 205.28 4,308.2 7.57 166.18 6,205.7 24.11.04 4,003.6 204.36 4,306.1 7.59 166.09 8,580.9 25.11.04 4,001.2 205.45 4,307.0 7.55 166.48 5,565.3 26.11.04 4,015.3 208.49 4,383.9 7.48 166.92 10,350.5 29.11.04 4,004.6 208.46 4,384.6 7.60 166.50 4,122.9 30.11.04 3,954.8 207.47 4,782.8 7.54 166.76 10,501.6 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +308.5 +2.80 +695.3 -0.29 +3.07 , +8.5% +1.4% +17.0% -3.7% +1.9% , ------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their current market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were included in the official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued and paid shares and their last market values. In case deals in company's shares are absent its capitalization is equal to zero. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2004-12-13]