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13.12.2004 11:08

ANALYSIS: In November, 2004 volume of GS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 20.9% to USD125.9 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 13, 04/ - In November, 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) on corporate emission securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-operation sector) 397 transactions have been registered for total amount of KZT16,435.5 m or USD 125.9 m. at the current rate of concluded transactions. Above amount is 1.9% from total exchange turnover of the month (in October - 2.7%).

In comparison with October 2004 volume of operations decreased in dollar term by USD33.3 m.(KZT4.8 bn.) or by 20.9% (in tenger term - by 22.5%). Relative to November 2003 trade volume of trades rose by USD20.5 m. (KZT959.3 m.) or in 19.5% (in 6.2% in tenge term).

GS turnover structure at KASE in November looked in the following way: stake of primary floatation was 2.6% from the volume of all carried out transactions (USD3,216.2 th.), purchase and sale sector - 97.4% (USD122,648.4 th.), there was no transactions on government shares portfolio. NS stock exchange market in October 2004: stake of primary floatation was 4.2% from the volume operations (USD6,680.6 th.), purchase and sale sector - 95.8% (USD152,484.9 th.).

Share market in November was characterized by decrease of transactions volume by 39.0% or by USD36.6 m. till equivalent USD57.4 m. Number of shares involved in November transactions, remained at the same level (27), and number of transactions increased from 230 to 248. Average volume of one operation carried out with shares decreased to KZT30.3 m. (USD231.3 th.) in November from KZT54.5 m. (USD408.6 th.) in October. In analyzed mionth. In analyzed month 79.0% transactions with shares in quantitative expression and 62% in volume were contractual (direct). Corresponding indicators of October - 87% and 84% accordingly.

As it is seen from table CS trades at KASE in November (vide below), the market of stake instruments was characterized by weakly expressed favorites. Such may be called common shares of Bank CenterCredit (CCBN, 22.1% from shares circulation, 36 transactions). In November top-5 were also included ATFB (11.2%), ORDB (10.5%), VTBN (10.2%) and VTBNp (6.7%). We will remind, that in October Favorites were expressed more in contrast. The first 5 positions of rating were occupied by ORDB (37.1%), KZMS (28.0%), CCBN (6.7%), VTBN (6.6%) and VTBNp (4.5% from total shares market). From above figures we may conclude: In November brokers and their clients were interested in the same stake instruments, as in October.

In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, this is explained very simply: CCBN, ORDB, VTBN and VTBNp - traditionally loan instruments, which are used by a limited number of brokers in realization of their financial schemes. That is why rate of these shares change slightly and within horizontal price corridors during long time. Interest of brokers to KZMS и ATFB has principally different nature. It connected either with redistribution of property, or with speculative potential of share.

Out of 27 names of shares, involved in November transactions, average weighted day prices grew during a month at twelve, decreased at eight, remained the same at seven. Leader of growth (in 2.0 times) became NFBN, fall (by 33.3%) - ROSA.

KASE_Shares index grew during a month by 1.4% due to positive change of demand prices for KANT, HRLT, NRBNp6, CCBN and TEBN. It should be noted, that in November this index considerably varied. Nevertheless, on November 9 historical maximal figure of this indicator was fixed (table is below).

Corporate bond market relative to October changed in minimal. Transactions volume grew by 5.1% or by USD3,305.0 th. Spectrum of involved securities in transactions expanded only by 2 instruments (44 - in October), number of transactions decreased from 164 to 149. In the result of average volume of transaction grew from KZT52.9 m. (USD397.5 th.) to KZT60.0 bn. (USD459.7 th.). Stake of direct (contractual) transactions was only 19% operations in quantitative and 26.1% in volume terms. Corresponding indexes of October - 22% and 21%.

5% from the number of instruments, included in trade KASE lists as at the end of the month (that is 4 bonds - BRKZb1, VTZLb1, CCBNb4, KKGBe2) was 38.4% of exchange circulation, including primary placements. Similar figure of the market concentration in October was 43.4%, in September - 51.1%.

Out of 46 instruments, involved in November transactions, 26 securities were characterized by positive change of average shady prices, negative - 20. Along with this growth of bonds was less essential, than their fall. Leaders of growth (by 6.4%) became RGBRb3, fall (by 20.7%) - NRBNb2 (Nurbank OJSC). On concluded transactions yield of bonds to maturity for buyer grew in November at 25 securities, decreased at 21.

The above figures certifies about minimal changes in November price market. This also certifies fall of indexes of KASE_B* series, represented in the third table.

The table below is supplemental and statistical information characterizing CS market at KASE in November of 2004.

Change of the lists of KASE securities in November of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month)

--------------------------------------------------
                 Shares:       Bonds:     Issuers:
Category of ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
admission   number trend number trend number trend
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A               41     0     79    +3     48    -1
B               33    +1      7     0     31     0
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B             74    +1     86    +3     77    -1
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N                3    +2      0     0      3    +2
----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
TOTAL           77    +3     86    +3     80    +1
--------------------------------------------------

Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Most tradable corporate securities at KASE in November, 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and including primary floatation)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Volume of deals:
Code    Brief                               --------- --------   Num- Market   Price
of       name of                                  th.       m. ber of share, change,
security issuer                                   USD      KZT  deals      %       %
-------- ---------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit JSC               12,657.3  1,650.2     36   10.1   +2.23
BRKZb1   Development Bank of Kazakhstan JSC   7,822.6  1,018.3      5    6.2   +4.75
VTZLb1   Kazuvelirprom JSC                    7,726.6  1,011.5      5    6.1   +1.13
ATFB     ATFBank JSC                          6,442.0    849.6      3    5.1       0
ORDB     Ordabasy Corporation JSC             6,015.3    783.6     16    4.8   -0.68
VTBN     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC               5,847.1    763.9     45    4.6   +0.95
CCBNb4   Bank CenterCredit JSC                5,470.3    712.6      8    4.3   -0.29
KKGBe2   Kazkommertsbank JSC                  5,274.1    685.9     13    4.2   +3.66
CSBNb4   CASPIAN BANK JSC                     5,226.1    683.3      7    4.2   +0.11
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC                   4,650.5    604.7      3    3.7   -3.20
KKGBb2   Kazkommertsbank JSC                  4,143.5    539.5      4    3.3   +0.23
VTBNp    Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC               3,818.0    498.6     22    3.0   -1.78
ALKS     Almaty Kus OJSC                      3,636.3    475.2     28    2.9  -23.08
ORDBp    Ordabasy Corporation JSC             3,480.9    458.6      3    2.8   -0.17
KZIKb5   Kazakhstan Mortgage Company
         JSC                                  3,414.9    444.6      2    2.7   +1.60
KARMb2   Karazhanbasmunai OJSC                3,283.8    428.5      4    2.6   +5.75
TEBN     Temirbank JSC                        3,171.7    414.4      8    2.5       0
KZASb2   KOSTANAI MINERALS JSC
                                              2,947.6    383.8      4    2.3   +0.70
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                          2,759.9    358.9      4    2.2   -0.06
BTASb4   TuranAlem Bank JSC                   2,673.7    347.6      6    2.1   +0.87
HRLT     CHARALTYN JSC                        2,488.7    326.7      7    2.0  -20.28
KZMS     Kazakhmys Corporation JSC            2,304.9    299.8      3    1.8  +31.20
ATFBp8   ATFBank JSC                          1,699.7    221.8      9    1.4  +25.00
ASFIb4   Astana-Finance JSC                   1,652.7    216.8      4    1.3   -3.69
CHFMb1   Himfarm JSC                          1,531.7    199.5      2    1.2   +5.46
TEBNb    Temirbank JSC                        1,310.9    170.5      1    1.0   +1.44
VTZL     Kazuvelirprom JSC                    1,258.9    164.5     15    1.0  +23.81
VTZLp    Kazuvelirprom JSC                    1,151.9    151.2      1    0.9       0
KZIKb6   Kazakhstan Mortgage Company
         JSC                                  1,082.9    142.3      1    0.9   -3.69
ATFBp    ATFBank JSC                          1,047.7    137.0     11    0.8  +25.00
KZIKb2   Kazakhstan Mortgage Company
         JSC                                  1,002.3    132.2      1    0.8   +0.45
TEBNb2   Temirbank JSC                          825.2    108.0      6    0.7   -4.72
HSBKb2   Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan
         JSC                                    793.3    103.2      4    0.6   +0.41
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC                      752.3     98.8      1    0.6   -3.59
NFBN     Neftebank JSC                          724.6     94.3      4    0.6 +100.00
ASBN     Alliance Bank JSC                      635.8     83.9      1    0.5   +0.28
MREKb1   Mangistau Electricity Grid
         Distribution Company OJSC
                                                547.7     72.1      1    0.4   +2.70
ASFIb2   Astana-Finance JSC                     489.3     63.6      4    0.4   +1.88
TXBNb2   TEXAKABANK JSC                         449.1     58.7      3    0.4   +3.05
BTAIb1   BTA Mortgage JSC                       410.8     53.4      1    0.3   +0.75
ZERD     Zerde OJSC                             373.9     48.8      8    0.3   -2.89
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK JSC                         342.0     45.0      1    0.3   -0.60
ROSA     ROSA JSC                               327.2     42.6      5    0.3  -33.33
CCBNb1   Bank CenterCredit JSC                  322.7     42.0      8    0.3  -10.54
TSBNb1   Tsesnabank JSC                         316.9     41.7      1    0.3   +0.64
ASFIb3   Astana-Finance JSC                     257.6     33.8      2    0.2   +2.49
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC                     243.2     31.8      6    0.2   -3.41
CSBNb3   CASPIAN BANK JSC                       153.4     19.9      1    0.1   +6.06
MMGZp    Mangistaumunaigas OJSC                 139.2     18.2      2    0.1       0
RGBRb3   RG Brands JSC                          115.6     15.0      3    0.1   +6.38
ALKSb2   Almaty Kus OJSC                        109.3     14.2      9    0.1  -18.48
TEBNb3   Temirbank JSC                          106.3     13.8      3    0.1   +4.97
KZIKb1   Kazakhstan Mortgage Company
         JSC                                     95.8     12.6      1    0.1   -3.10
KTTH     Kaztorgtechnical OJSC                   50.4      6.6      2   0.04   +1.83
KZTKp    Kazkahtelecom OJSC                      41.4      5.4      7   0.03  +16.96
KZPSb1   Kazpost JSC                             39.4      5.2      1   0.03   -0.43
KZALb1   Kazakhaltyn mining and smelting
         concern JSC                             38.8      5.0      2   0.03   +6.10
UTMK     UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY
         FARMS OJSC                              30.1      3.9      1   0.02   +2.87
NRBNb2   Nurbank OJSC                            27.9      3.6      3   0.02  -20.74
KKGBe3   Kazkommerts International B.V.          19.5      2.5      1   0.02   -0.01
VTBNb1   Valut-Transit-Bank JSC                  17.8      2.3      3   0.01   -1.09
ATFBb2   ATFBank JSC                             13.7      1.8      1   0.01   -4.87
ASBNb1   Alliance Bank JSC                       11.5      1.5      3   0.01   -3.90
NRBNb1   Nurbank OJSC                            11.5      1.5      1   0.01   -4.32
ALKZp    Aluminium Kazakhstan JSC                10.4      1.4      5   0.01   +1.12
NRBNp6   Nurbank OJSC                             8.1      1.1      1   0.01       0
INCAb1   INTERGAS CENTRAL ASIA CJSC
                                                  7.6      1.0      1   0.01   +4.13
TSBN     Tsesnabank JSC                           3.8      0.5      1  0.003   -4.76
UKPFb1   UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY
         FARMS OJSC                               2.4      0.3      1  0.002   -0.14
CSBN     CASPIAN BANK JSC                         1.8      0.2      1  0.001       0
HSBKb3   Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan
         JSC                                      1.7      0.2      2  0.001   +4.56
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC                                 0.8      0.1      1  0.001   +3.57
KZCRp    Kazchrome JSC                            0.2      0.0      3 <0.001       0
-------- ---------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL    73                                 125,864.5 16,435.5    397  100.0       -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue.

Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in November of 2004

------------------------------------------------------------------
         Capitaliza-        Capitaliza-
                tion               tion       Bond value Volume of
              of the             of the           index,  purchase
               share              bonds Bonds  including  and sale
             market,  Share     market, yield      accum    deals,
Date          m. USD  index      m. USD index   interest   th. USD
-------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- ---------
29.10.04     3,646.3 204.67     4,087.5  7.83     163.69   4,167.7
01.11.04     3,608.0 205.17     4,088.1  7.84     163.67   9,996.2
02.11.04     3,660.1 205.96     4,092.9  7.79     164.01   2,360.7
03.11.04     3,669.0 204.95     4,294.7  7.81     163.89   2,860.7
04.11.04     3,666.0 206.03     4,295.5  7.83     163.83   3,851.9
05.11.04     3,668.4 208.86     4,293.8  7.82     163.93   8,289.6
08.11.04     3,733.2 208.57     4,290.7  7.86     164.45     105.4
09.11.04     3,735.4 209.40     4,292.2  7.86     164.04   2,207.0
10.11.04     3,733.9 208.92     4,294.0  7.87     164.10   3,659.5
11.11.04     3,739.1 208.10     4,295.6  7.83     164.28   3,225.2
12.11.04     3,752.6 208.19     4,296.1  7.77     164.88   4,919.8
15.11.04     3,755.3 208.54     4,296.1  7.75     164.86   4,254.6
16.11.04     3,758.3 207.24     4,300.1  7.70     165.22   9,895.2
17.11.04     3,993.6 205.36     4,301.6  7.70     165.27   2,700.6
18.11.04     4,008.0 205.66     4,306.3  7.63     165.74   8,174.5
19.11.04     4,017.3 205.66     4,307.2  7.66     165.62   2,135.3
22.11.04     4,000.7 205.02     4,308.6  7.64     165.81  11,901.5
23.11.04     3,997.4 205.28     4,308.2  7.57     166.18   6,205.7
24.11.04     4,003.6 204.36     4,306.1  7.59     166.09   8,580.9
25.11.04     4,001.2 205.45     4,307.0  7.55     166.48   5,565.3
26.11.04     4,015.3 208.49     4,383.9  7.48     166.92  10,350.5
29.11.04     4,004.6 208.46     4,384.6  7.60     166.50   4,122.9
30.11.04     3,954.8 207.47     4,782.8  7.54     166.76  10,501.6
-------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- ---------
Trend         +308.5  +2.80      +695.3 -0.29      +3.07         ,
               +8.5%  +1.4%      +17.0% -3.7%      +1.9%         ,
------------------------------------------------------------------

Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their current market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were included in the official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued and paid shares and their last market values. In case deals in company's shares are absent its capitalization is equal to zero. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.

[2004-12-13]