ANALYSIS: In October, 2004 volume of GS purchase and sale deals at KASE fell by 20.9% to USD159.2 bn.

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 10, 04/ - In October, 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) on non-government emission of securities (NS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- operation sector) 394 transactions have been registered for total amount of KZT 21,204.2 m or USD 159.2 m. at the current rate of concluded transactions. Above amount is 2.7% from total exchange turnover of the month (in September - 4.3%). In comparison with September 2004 volume of operations decreased in dollar term by USD42.0 m.(KZT6.0 bn.) or by 20.9$ (in tenger term - by 22.1%). Relative to October 2003 trade volume rose by USD104.7 m. (KZT13.2 bn.) or in 2.9 times (in 2.6 times in tenge term). GS turnover structure at KASE in October looked in the following way: stake of primary floatation was 4.2% from the volume of all carried out transactions (USD6,680.6 th.), purchase and sale sector - 95.8% (USD152,484.9 th.), there was no transactions on government shares portfolio. NS stock exchange market in September 2004 was alike: stake of primary floatation was 4.7% from the volume operations (USD9,570.2 th.), purchase and sale sector - 95.3% (USD191,580.8 th.). Share market in October was characterized by decrease of transactions volume by 27.2% or by USD35.2 m. till equivalent USD94.0 m. This happened basically due to absence of anomalous big transactions in analyzed month, typical for September and August. Number of shares involved in transactions in October, relative to September did not change (27), and number of transactions decreased from 313 to 230. Also average volume of one carried out transaction decreased. For September this indicator was KZT55.9 m. (USD412.6 th.), for October - KZT54.5 th. (USD408.6 th.). In analyzed month 87.0% transactions with shares in quantitative expression and 84.4% in volume were contractual (direct). Corresponding indicators of September - 85% and 92% accordingly. Liquidity of share market in analyzed month was supported basically by two securities - simple shares of Ordabasy Corporation JSC (ORDB, 37.1% from shares turnover, 21 transactions) and Kazakhmys Corporation JSC (KZMS, 28.0%, 28 transactions). As it is seen from below table, these shares were characterized by opposite price dynamics. It should also be said that in price terms shares market in October generally looked contradictorily. From 27 shares, involved in transactions, ten average weighted day prices increased during a month, ten decreased, six did not change. Leader of growth (by 63.0%) became KZMS, decrease (in 2.3 times) - AMGZp. KASE_Shares index increased during a month by 2.2% basically due to positive dynamics of demand prices at KZNT, KZTKp, NRBNp6 and KZTK. It should be noted that in October value of this index were at historically maximal marks (table is below). Corporate bond market also decreased its activity. Partially this was caused by less volume of primary floatation, partially - by confident strengthening of tenge against dollar. The last resulted in price fall of currency and indexed at the level of tenge devaluation of bonds and negatively affected their liquidation. Transactions volume of the sector decreased relative to September by 9.4% (by USD6,803.3 th.) till USD65.2 m. Spectrum of involved securities in transactions narrowed from 48 in September to 44 in October, number of transactions increased from 149 to 164. In the result of average volume of transaction dropped from KZT65.3 m. (USD183.2 th.) to KZT52.9 bn. (USD397.5 th.) October market of corporate bonds formally looked more "transparent" than in September. Stake of direct (contractual) transactions was only 22% operations in quantitative and 21% in volume expression. Corresponding indicators of September - 31% and 25%. October demonstrated unusual low market concentration of corporate bonds. Five per cent of instruments included in KASE listing by end of the month (or 4 bonds - KZIKb5, ASFIb4, VTZLb1, CCBNb5) took 43.4% of the sectors turnover including floatation. The same indicator in September was at 51.1%, August - 53.8%. In other words, at October market in corporate bonds market there was no any favorites. In price term bonds market as well as shares market looked contradictorily. From 44 instruments, involved in October transactions, 24 securities characterized by positive changes of average weighted shady prices, 18 - negative. Two bonds were not traded till October. By concluded transactions bonds profitability to redeem for buyer increased at 22 securities, and the same number decreased. Above data are explained by minimal change of indexes of KASE_B* series in analyzed month (vide third table below). In the whole NS at KASE in October did not suffer principal changes and slightly differs from the market of the beginning of the current year. The table below is supplemental and statistical information characterizing NS market at KASE in October of 2004. Change of the lists of KASE securities in October of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month) -------------------------------------------------- Shares: Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ ----------- ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 41 0 76 +1 49 0 B 32 +1 7 +1 31 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 73 +1 83 +1 78 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 1 0 0 0 1 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 74 +1 83 +1 79 +1 -------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector. Most tradable securities at KASE in October of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and including primary floatation) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Code Volume of deals: Num- Market Price of ------------------ ber of share, change, security Brief name of issuer th. USD m. KZT deals % % -------- ------------------------------ --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- ORDB Ordabasy Corporation JSC 34,856.2 4,642.5 21 21.9 -30.56 KZMS Kazakhmys Corporation JSC 26,305.5 3,515.4 28 16.5 +63.02 KZIKb5 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 13,847.3 1,835.9 13 8.7 +0.46 ASFIb4 Astana-finance JSC 6,648.3 882.8 16 4.2 -0.03 CCBN Bank CenterCredit JSC 6,330.6 842.3 8 4.0 -2.00 VTBN Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 6,186.8 825.3 47 3.9 +0.78 VTBNp Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC 4,203.1 563.7 26 2.6 +11.93 VTZLb1 Kazuvelirprom JSC 4,003.1 532.8 3 2.5 -0.45 CCBNb5 Bank CenterCredit JSC 3,772.7 505.9 4 2.4 - KZTK Kazakhtelecom JSC 3,468.9 462.1 13 2.2 +10.95 TXBNb2 TEXAKaBANK OJSC 3,069.9 408.6 9 1.9 +1.56 KZALb1 Kazakhaltyn mining and smelting concern JSC 2,577.2 343.0 1 1.6 +1.92 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 2,568.0 344.8 2 1.6 +1.65 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 2,380.1 319.8 2 1.5 +1.41 KZASb2 KOSTANAI MINERALS JSC 2,105.1 279.6 5 1.3 +0.89 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 2,090.0 277.5 5 1.3 -1.58 ORDBp Ordabasy Corporation JSC 2,065.1 273.1 4 1.3 +30.68 ROSA ROSA JSC 1,943.4 261.2 2 1.2 - ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 1,938.7 257.4 3 1.2 +2.96 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 1,837.5 244.1 6 1.2 +1.18 BRKZb1 Development Bank of Kazakhstan 1,805.6 240.9 4 1.1 +1.36 JSC VTZLp Kazuvelirprom JSC 1,738.1 230.8 3 1.1 0 ASFIb3 Astana-Finance JSC 1,683.7 223.6 5 1.1 +0.87 HSBKb5 Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 1,652.4 218.1 1 1.0 +1.76 CSBNb4 CASPIAN BANK JSC 1,581.7 208.9 2 1.0 +1.31 ASBN Alliance Bank 1,330.6 178.1 1 0.8 -11.90 BTAIb2 BTA Mortgage JSC 1,215.8 161.1 5 0.8 - RGBRb3 RG Brands JSC 1,159.8 155.3 3 0.7 +1.76 ATFBp ATFBank JSC 1,075.3 143.3 9 0.7 -23.08 NRBNb2 Nurbank OJSC 1,044.9 138.8 2 0.7 -11.45 ALKSb2 Almaty Kus OJSC 1,040.3 137.6 8 0.7 +0.29 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 944.3 126.8 2 0.6 +2.45 VTZL Kazuvelirprom JSC 936.8 124.6 17 0.6 0 BTAIb1 BTA Mortgage JSC 803.1 106.0 2 0.5 -0.31 BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 803.0 106.6 1 0.5 +0.60 NRBNb1 Nurbank OJSC 773.5 102.8 4 0.5 +0.16 RAHT Rakhat OJSC 660.3 87.7 2 0.4 -21.88 HRLT CHARALTYN JSC 551.3 73.9 6 0.3 0 ATFBb2 ATFBank JSC 550.5 73.4 5 0.3 -7.71 ZERD Zerde OJSC 511.3 68.3 15 0.3 +30.00 HSBKb2 Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 488.7 64.9 4 0.3 -11.04 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 485.6 64.7 4 0.3 -5.44 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 466.8 62.7 2 0.3 +2.59 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 399.7 52.8 1 0.3 +3.07 CHFMb1 Himfarm JSC 356.5 47.8 5 0.2 +1.36 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 347.4 46.0 2 0.2 0 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 308.5 41.4 1 0.2 +1.47 KZZN KAZZINC JSC 251.9 33.5 2 0.2 -21.74 AMGZp CNPC-Aktobemunaigas OJSC 226.9 30.4 1 0.1 -55.88 MMGZp Mangistaumunaigas OJSC 214.9 28.4 3 0.1 +27.27 ATFBp8 ATFBank OJSC 209.7 27.7 1 0.1 -0.18 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 204.7 27.3 4 0.1 -7.75 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARMS OJSC 178.5 23.7 3 0.1 +1.12 KZTOe1 KazTransOil JSC 154.2 20.4 1 0.1 +2.27 MREKb1 Mangistau Electricity Grid Distribution Company OJSC 150.3 20.0 1 0.1 -4.60 LARIb1 LARIBA-BANK SB JSC 137.3 18.4 5 0.1 -7.05 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC 135.2 18.0 1 0.1 -1.87 KZIKb2 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 78.0 10.3 2 0.05 -1.45 CCBNb1 Bank CenterCredit JSC 41.3 5.5 3 0.03 -2.01 KKGBe2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 40.1 5.3 4 0.03 -6.20 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 37.3 5.0 4 0.02 -7.14 ASFIb2 Astana-Finance JSC 34.9 4.6 2 0.02 +3.93 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 33.8 4.5 4 0.02 -15.36 ALKZ Aluminum Kazakhstan JSC 32.3 4.3 1 0.02 +6.67 ASFI Astana-Finance JSC 31.0 4.1 1 0.02 +42.86 UKTCb1 AES Ust-Kamenogorsk TEC OJSC 30.4 4.1 2 0.02 -0.16 HSBKb Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 19.2 2.6 2 0.01 -4.52 TEBN Temirbank JSC 6.2 0.8 3 0.004 0 ALKZp Aluminum Kazakhstan JSC 3.0 0.4 6 0.002 +11.25 KZCRp TNK Kazchrome JSC 0.7 0.1 3 <0.001 0 HSBK Halyk Saving Bank Kazakhstan JSC 0.3 0.0 1 <0.001 -23.08 -------- ------------------------------ --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- TOTAL 71 159,165.6 21,204.2 394 100.0 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in October of 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- 30.09.04 3,308.8 200.18 3,662.3 7.79 162.47 12,644.1 01.10.04 3,629.0 200.24 3,660.6 7.78 163.39 5,072.9 04.10.04 3,748.7 203.26 3,662.9 7.88 162.65 7,992.8 05.10.04 3,321.7 203.08 3,661.0 7.88 162.70 6,408.9 06.10.04 3,326.4 202.91 3,665.8 7.89 162.64 1,702.9 07.10.04 3,682.7 203.49 3,666.1 7.88 162.71 3,142.3 08.10.04 3,241.1 203.13 3,667.9 7.88 162.71 5,530.6 11.10.04 3,778.9 202.49 3,668.6 7.90 162.67 7,613.8 12.10.04 3,791.8 202.97 3,670.4 7.81 163.20 24,171.0 13.10.04 3,872.3 203.89 3,673.3 7.79 163.30 10,927.0 14.10.04 3,825.9 203.91 4,079.2 7.80 163.28 22,352.1 15.10.04 3,766.8 203.91 4,077.6 7.80 163.24 4,330.1 18.10.04 3,750.2 204.14 4,078.6 7.80 163.46 5,639.4 19.10.04 3,657.6 204.29 4,077.6 7.79 163.58 6,966.7 20.10.04 3,606.8 204.11 4,076.3 7.81 163.55 13,631.3 21.10.04 3,632.7 205.45 4,087.2 7.83 163.43 5,144.2 22.10.04 3,635.4 205.45 4,082.4 7.86 163.28 4,275.4 26.10.04 3,650.5 205.54 4,087.2 7.79 163.79 2,638.2 27.10.04 3,581.1 205.13 4,084.5 7.81 163.70 13,454.3 28.10.04 3,623.5 204.56 4,086.6 7.85 163.53 4,003.9 29.10.04 3,646.3 204.67 4,087.5 7.83 163.69 4,167.7 -------- ----------- ------ ----------- ----- ---------- --------- Trend +337.5 +4.49 +425.2 +0.04 +1.22 +10.2% +2.2% +11.6% +0.5% +0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their current market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were included in the official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued and paid shares and their last market values. In case deals in company's shares are absent its capitalization is equal to zero. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2004-11-10]