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Market and Company News
07.09.2004 21:44

In August of 2004 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE rose by 1.5 times to $234.1 m.

/IRBIS, Ranida Gabdeyeva, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 7, 04/ - In August of 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 509 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT31,887.2 m. or $234.1 m. at current rate of KASE effective on the day the deals were made. The stated sum takes only 5.1% out of monthly exchange turnover (in July - 3.4%).

In comparison with July of 2004 volume of transactions increased by $80.3 m. (KZT11.0 bn.) or 1.52 times (1.53 times in terms of tenge). Relative to August of 2003 trade volume rose by $148.4 m. (KZT19.3 bn.) or 2.7 times (2.5 times in terms of tenge).

Structure of CS turnover at KASE in August is presented in the following way: 4.5% ($10,559.7 th.) of conducted deals fell to the stake of primary offerings; stake of purchase and sale sector was 95.5% ($223,500.4 th.). In SBS sector no deals were made. Structure of exchange's CS market in July of 2004 was was follows: the stake of primary offerings was 23.1% of transactions volume ($35,580.9 th.), purchase and sale sector - 76.9% ($118,177.1 th.).

As the whole stock exchange's CS market in August was very active. Volume of primary offerings decreased in comparison with July, however it is comparable with average monthly indicator of the current year. The secondary market is surprising with the next big deals in shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC, due to which share turnover in August took the second place in the year.

It also should be noted that CS market almost does not change at KASE by the quality or changes very slowly. It still demonstrates the high concentration degree, due to well marked favorites. For example, One instrument out of 67 names of instruments involved into CS purchase and sale deals at KASE in August controlled 44.5% of market's turnover, five - 66.9%, and ten instruments - 80.2%.

Except rare exclusions (only KZMS), rather high liquidity of favorites estimated by the volume and number of deals made in them, is false for it's formed by the limited number of participants of exchange's trades and mainly by direct deals. This saying may be illustrated by the data of results of analysis of stock exchange's transactions made in August in five most tradable securities (other information on these instruments is given in the table of CS trading ability at KASE, see below):

-------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Stake of
             direct deals, %
Code of     ----------------  Number of brokers,  Number of enabled
instrument  quantity  volume    who made deals      depo accounts
----------  --------  ------  ------------------  -----------------
KZMS            68.2    99.7          6                  21
ORDB           100.0   100.0          3                  21
VTBN*           87.0    42.3          3                  25
KZASb2          90.9    93.4          1                  14
BTASb4          85.7   99.99          2                   8
-------------------------------------------------------------------
* including primary offering

One also should take into account the high volatility of traded shares prices, their dependence on deals type (market or direct) and absence of correlation of shares rate with results of their issuers' financial-economic activity.

Share market, as was said above, had big volume of transactions. Taking into account primary offering it has reached the equivalent of USD169.7 m, that is чmore than corresponding indicator of July 2.7 times. Reasons are two big direct deals in common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC, which were made at KASE on August 19. The transactions were made with shareholding consisting of 6,083,601 securities that is 24.8% of total number of announced and floated shares, for KZT13.6 bn (equivalent of USD100.0 m). Disregarding these transactions share market's activity in August was in July's level. One can make the same conclusion comparing number of concluded deals and number of names of shares involved into deals by brokers.

In price context, August's share market was characterized by predominant falling of securities yields. Weighted average day prices of 12 names of shares out of 22 involved into deals, four shares grew in price, prices of five shares remained unchanged, and there was nothing to compare the rate of ATFBp8 with. VTZL grew most of all (by 28.57%), KKGBp fell most of all (by 25.83%).

KASE_Shares index lost 4.3% during the month due to negative dynamics of demand prices for KZMS, VTBNp, VTBN, KKGBp and BTASp.

Corporate bond market was notable with the number of securities involved into deals (45 against 39 in July) and with the number of these deals (176 against 136). However volume of transactions fell in August by 29.3%. It's notable that one of five favorites of previous month was out of August's top-5 (see table below). KZASb2 and BTASb4 were leading.

Price tendencies of corporate bond market have not changed. Most securities' yield was falling because of growth of their prices that was reflected in the dynamics of KASE_B* indexes.

Below is supplemental information characterizing CS market at KASE in August of 2004.

Change of the lists of KASE securities in August of 2004 (by the end of month, change for the month)

--------------------------------------------------------
                   Shares:         Bonds:       Issuers:
Category of  -------------  -------------  -------------
admission    number  trend  number  trend  number  trend
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A                41      0      73     +1      49      0
B                33      0       7      0      31      0
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
A+B              74      0      80     +1      78      0
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
N                 2      0       0      0       2      0
-----------  ------  -----  ------  -----  ------  -----
TOTAL            76      0      80     +1      78      0
--------------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing
category; "A+B" - official list; "N" - "Non-listing securities" sector.

Most tradable securities at KASE in August of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and including primary floatations)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      Volume of deals:
Code     Brief                      ------------------   Num- Market   Price
of       name of                          th.       m. ber of share, change,
security issuer                           USD      KZT  deals      %       %
-------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
KZMS     Corporation Kazakhmys JSC  104,108.6 14,186.5     22   44.5   +10.6
ORDB     Corporation Ordabasy JSC    14,434.8  1,966.1     45    6.2   -10.7
VTBN     Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC      13,691.7  1,859.8     54    5.8   -22.4
KZASb2   KOSTANAI
         MINERALS JSC                13,280.5  1,811.4     22    5.7    +2.8
BTASb4   Bank TuranAlem JSC          11,107.9  1,515.8      7    4.7    -0.4
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit JSC        7,974.2  1,086.8     18    3.4   -11.1
ALKS     Almaty Kus OJSC              7,271.0    990.1     59    3.1    -0.7
UTMK     Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
         magnesium combine JSC        5,704.6    774.8      9    2.4    -0.5
HSBKb5   Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC            5,575.9    762.1      1    2.4       -
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC                  4,643.8    631.8     13    2.0    +1.8
VTZLp    Kazyuvelirprom JSC           3,870.4    528.1      6    1.7   -13.3
TXBNb2   ОАО "TEXAKABANK"             3,532.0    482.0     15    1.5    +4.1
VTZL     Kazyuvelirprom JSC           3,036.0    413.1     32    1.3   +28.6
MREKb1   Mangistau
         distributing electricity
         network company OJSC         2,985.0    406.8      6    1.3    +0.1
KKGBp    Kazkommertsbank JSC          2,698.8    364.9      2    1.2   -25.8
KZTCb1   KazTransCom OJSC             2,640.0    359.6      5    1.1    +0.6
ASFIb4   Astana-Finance JSC           2,603.0    354.4     14    1.1    +2.6
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC           2,518.9    343.1      6    1.1    -1.5
TSBNb1   Tsesnabank JSC               2,451.9    334.2      3    1.0    +2.3
VTBNp    Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC       2,172.9    296.1     28    0.9    -1.0
VTZLb1   Kazyuvelirprom JSC           2,024.8    276.6      6    0.9    +4.0
TEBN     Temirbank JSC                1,834.6    250.0      2    0.8   +13.7
RGBRb3   RG Brands JSC                1,464.4    199.2      8    0.6    +1.6
ZERD     Zerde OJSC                   1,140.8    155.3     23    0.5   +12.3
BRKZb1   Development Bank of 
         Kazakhstan JSC               1,036.4    141.3      3    0.4    -2.9
CSBNb4   BANK CASPIAN JSC             1,018.3    139.1      2    0.4    +1.6
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC              846.7    115.5      3    0.4    +0.5
ASFIb2   Astana-Finance JSC             675.2     92.1      5    0.3    +0.6
ARNAb1   ARNA OJSC                      609.6     83.0      4    0.3    -5.0
BTAS     Bank TuranAlem JSC             565.6     77.0      9    0.2   -12.1
CCBNb3   Bank CenterCredit JSC          552.0     75.4      2    0.2    +2.8
KZALb1   Mining and smelting
         concern Kazakhaltyn JSC        464.9     63.2      3    0.2   -0.04
HSBKp    Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC              462.1     63.0      2    0.2    -0.6
KZAPb1   NAC Kazatomprom                438.1     59.6      4    0.2    +2.8
ATFBp    ATFBank JSC                    437.6     59.6      3    0.2   -22.2
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                    434.1     59.0      5    0.2    +0.6
KARMb2   Karazhanbasmunai OJSC          394.5     53.8      2    0.2    -1.8
HSBKb2   Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC              320.5     43.7      1    0.1    +2.7
NRBNb2   Nurbank OJSC                   300.8     41.1      3    0.1    +3.9
ATFBp8   ATFBank OJSC                   292.4     39.8      1    0.1       -
BTASb1   Bank TuranAlem JSC             237.0     32.3      3    0.1    +0.1
ASFIb3   Astana-FinanceJSC              229.9     31.3      3    0.1    +1.9
KZIKb2   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                    218.5     29.8      1    0.1    -3.4
KZPSb1   Kazpost JSC                    193.0     26.3      3    0.1    +7.9
CHFMb1   Chimfarm JSC                   183.6     25.1      1    0.1   +0.04
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC                       182.1     24.7      2    0.1    +1.7
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK OJSC                164.8     22.5      1    0.1    -3.8
HSBKb3   Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC              160.7     21.9      2    0.1    +1.8
CSBNb3   BANK CASPIAN JSC               149.3     20.4      1    0.1   -0.03
BTAIb1   BTA Mortgage JSC               148.4     20.1      1    0.1    -0.3
NRBNb3   Nurbank OJSC                   111.1     15.1      1   0.05    +0.2
TEBNb3   Temirbank JSC                  103.9     14.2      2   0.04    +1.6
ATFBb2   ATFBank JSC                     84.8     11.5      1   0.04    +2.1
KZIKb6   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                     75.4     10.2      1   0.03    +0.3
HSBKb    Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC               53.7      7.3      2   0.02    +7.0
TEBNb    Temirbank JSC                   49.9      6.8      1   0.02    -1.5
VTBNb1   Valut-Tranzit-Bank JSC          35.4      4.8      2   0.02    +4.3
HSBK     Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC               24.4      3.3      1   0.01       0
UKPFb1   UST-KAMENOGORSK
         BATTERY FARM OJSC               13.6      1.9      1   0.01    -5.5
HSBKb4   Halyk savings bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC               13.5      1.8      1   0.01    -0.1
KZIKb1   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                      5.8      0.8      2  0.002    +2.3
ALKZp    Alulminium of 
         Kazakhstan JSC                   1.8      0.2      5  0.001       0
RAHT     Rakhat OJSC                      1.6      0.2      4  0.001   -13.6
KZIKb3   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company JSC                      1.5      0.2      1  0.001    +0.3
KZCRp    TNC Kazchrome OJSC               0.8      0.1      4 <0.001       0
CSBN     BANK CASPIAN JSC                 0.1     0.01      2 <0.001       0
CSBNp    BANK CASPIAN JSC                 0.0     0.01      2 <0.001       0
-------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ -------
TOTAL    67                         234,060.1 31,887.2    509  100.0       -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes
of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have
the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" -
eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the
bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first
issue.

Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in August of 2004

------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Capitaliza-          Capitaliza-
                 tion                 tion         Bond value  Volume of
               of the               of the             index,   purchase
                share                bonds  Bonds   including   and sale
              market,   Share      market,  yield       accum     deals,
Date           m. USD   index       m. USD  index    interest    th. USD
--------  -----------  ------  -----------  -----  ----------  ---------
30.07.04      3,350.2  196.87      3,601.3   7.83      161.02   12,299.6
02.08.04      3,329.8  196.14      3,601.8   7.79      161.32    6,048.7
03.08.04      3,323.3  195.72      3,602.0   7.79      161.39    6,778.0
04.08.04      3,290.2  195.81      3,602.3   7.79      161.40    5,577.1
05.08.04      3,285.0  195.66      3,601.3   7.79      161.43    2,004.7
06.08.04      3,334.3  196.92      3,600.9   7.78      161.54    9,185.3
09.08.04      3,352.8  196.67      3,606.3   7.74      161.81    2,127.5
10.08.04      3,375.8  196.37      3,613.4   7.72      161.96    4,378.2
11.08.04      3,044.6  193.83      3,614.3   7.75      161.82    9,579.1
12.08.04      2,995.7  193.83      3,612.0   7.90      161.38    2,604.3
13.08.04      3,395.1  179.66      3,616.3   7.91      160.97    7,800.7
16.08.04      2,957.8  177.16      3,614.3   7.91      161.04    1,711.7
17.08.04      2,943.4  176.80      3,605.5   7.88      161.27    5,944.2
18.08.04      2,997.3  187.79      3,602.4   7.89      161.31    5,961.0
19.08.04      3,065.9  187.79      3,599.0   7.89      161.27  108,065.6
20.08.04      3,066.5  188.97      3,596.8   7.86      161.41    7,258.5
23.08.04      3,066.5  188.95      3,597.3   7.85      161.43      423.3
24.08.04      3,057.6  188.91      3,599.3   7.86      161.46   11,001.0
25.08.04      3,026.5  189.14      3,599.7   7.72      161.53    6,725.8
26.08.04      3,173.1  193.87      3,631.8   7.71      161.64   21,203.0
27.08.04      3,192.8  189.14      3,633.9   7.75      161.40    5,924.0
31.08.04      3,184.1  188.31      3,636.5   7.74      161.69    3,758.3
--------  -----------  ------  -----------  -----  ----------  ---------
Trend          -166.1   -8.56        +35.2  -0.09       +0.67
                -5.0%   -4.3%        +1.0%  -1.1%       +0.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on
the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category,
including the market capitalization of their issuers. Capitalization of the
bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating
on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the
number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their current
market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used
instead. Capitalization of the share market - indicator that reflects the
market capitalization of the companies whose shares were included in the
official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the
number of issued and paid shares and their last market values. In case deals in
company's shares are absent its capitalization is equal to zero. Bonds yield
index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the
corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated
based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal).
Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average
(through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A"
of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average
bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume
includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary
floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo
transactions.

[2004-09-07]