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Market and Company News
03.06.2004 17:27

In May of 2004 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE rose 4.4 times to $275.8 m

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 3, 04/ - In May of 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 351 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT37,659.4 m. or $275.8 m. at current rate of KASE effective on the day the deals were made. The stated sum takes only 6.8% out of the total exchange turnover.

In comparison with April of 2004 volume of transactions increased by $213.2 m. (KZT29.0 bn.) or 4.4 times (by 4.35% in terms of tenge). Relative to May of 2003 volume of transactions rose by $77.5 m. (KZT7.8 bn.) or by 39.1% (26.1% in terms of tenge).

Structure of CS turnover at KASE in May is presented in the following way: 2.0% ($5,617.1 th) of conducted deals took primary offerings and 98.0% ($270,142.4 th) fell on secondary market. No deals involving state stakes of shares were made. By comparison, following indicators characterized the structure of stock exchange's CS sector in April 2004: Primary market - 8.4% ($5,205.8 th); secondary market - 91.6% ($57,351.4).

From tables below it follows that huge volume of trades was, first of all, induced by active trades over common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC (KZMS). Only 4 deals were made over KZMS between two KASE members on May 20 for $172.6 m, that constitutes to 72.6% of the whole CS turnover at KASE, 63.9% of CS purchase-sale secondary market of KASE or 80.8% of shares turnover in May. The asset traded was the package of 2,431,196 common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC (11.5% of announced shares of the company). Parameters of deals coupled with moderate comments of both parties allows assuming that deals resulted in change of major shareholders of the copper monopoly.

However, without even those deals the market looked quite active either in shares and corporate debt instruments sectors. For instance, volume of trades over corporate bonds rose relative to April by 46.8%, while number of deals went up almost by third. At equity market trades volume rose by 118%, number of deals went up by 7%.

In IRBIS analysts' opinions, following factors induced greater trades in CS in May:

  • Rapid decline of primary offerings of government securities (GS) and such securities becoming more illiquid at secondary market led to (1) outflow of investors' capital from CS to GS sector and (2) more of idle tenges at market, that consequently invoked higher demand for corporate debt securities and required more active work on shares when used as collateral for "hidden repo".
  • Major transactions over KZMS encouraged additional restructuring of funds at market including corporate securities resale.
  • Stagnation in yield trend of Kazakhstani corporate bonds in May (in April KASE_BY index rose by 10,0%, while in May only by 1.1%), affected by ratings upgrade of Standard & Poor's to an investment grade and other factors, required that holders of corporate bonds change their positions on many securities with locking in of profits and minimization of losses.

Forecast for June in the given sector don't look transparent. May events revealed that CS exchange market remains impulsive and affected by significant influence of local unpredictable factors. So far it could only be expected that stagnation at GS market positively influence CS market.

Following are the tables, which show stock exchange's CS market in May, 2004.

Most tradable securities at KASE in May of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Code                              Volume of Volume of     Volume of Number
of                                    deals,    deals,      deals in     of
security Brief title of the issuer   th. USD    m. KZT    securities  deals
-------- ------------------------- --------- --------- ------------- ------
KZMS     Corporation Kazakhmys JSC     377.7      52.3        14,963      9
TEBNb3   Temirbank JSC                 933.0     128.8       123,318     19
BTASb2   Bank TuranAlem JSC             49.9       6.9           500      1
VTBN     VALUT-TRANZIT BANK OJSC     3,367.4     465.9     1,399,535     16
CCBN     Bank CenterCredit OJSC      3,490.0     483.3     2,358,760     16
KZIKb4   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company CJSC                3,444.9     478.6   451,700,000      4
ORDB     Corporation Ordabasy JSC    1,836.4     254.1       107,931     29
YASYb1   YASSY OJSC                  1,919.7     265.1        27,043      1
ORDBp    Corporation Ordabasy JSC    1,650.9     227.6       253,670      1
ALKS     Almaty Kus OJSC               572.0      78.9     7,386,833     10
BTAS     Bank TuranAlem JSC             49.9       6.9           500      1
HSBKp    Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan  JSC                 2.8       0.4            26      1
MREKb1   Mangistau Electricity
         Distribution
         Company OJSC
UKPFb1   UST-KAMENOGORSK
         POULTRY FARM OJSC             744.6     102.6         9,100      2
BTASe1   TuranAlem Finance B.V.        105.2      14.5       100,000      2
UTMK     Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-
         magnesium combine JSC           1.5       0.2           105      5
TXBNb2   TEXAKABANK OJSC             2,345.0     324.1   314,590,000     11
CSBNb3   BANK CASPIAN JSC               28.6       4.0           190      2
BRKZb1   Development Bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC              9,353.8   1,289.6     1,350,000      4
ROSAb1   ROSA JSC
ALKSb2   Almaty Kus OJSC               625.5      86.4     7,209,750     18
CCBNb3   Bank CenterCredit JSC          33.4       4.6     3,700,000      2
CSBNb2   BANK CASPIAN JSC              864.6     119.5         5,690      4
ASFIb2   Astana-finance OJSC           611.1      84.5       843,383      8
VTBNp    VALUT-TRANZIT
          BANK OJSC                  4,600.8     636.6     1,988,482     27
RGBRb3   RG BRANDS OJSC              1,853.8     255.8   251,500,000      7
KZIKb1   Kazakhstan Mortgage
         Company CJSC                   12.9       1.8           170      1
HSBKb3   Halyk savings bank of
         Kazakhstan JSC                166.8      23.0    21,800,000      4
ATFBb3   ATFBank JSC
ARNAb1   ARNA OJSC                     148.4      20.5         1,948      3
VTZL     VALYUT TRANZIT
         ZOLOTO JSC                      7.3       1.0       920,000      1
ZERD     ZERDE OJSC                    571.2      78.8    58,030,043     23
BTAIb1   BTA Mortgage JSC              382.4      53.0         5,300      1
CCBNb2   Bank CenterCredit JSC         531.0      73.4         4,703      3
KARMb2   Karazhanbasmunai OJSC          73.0      10.1        10,000      1
HRLT     Charaltyn JSC               1,448.1     200.0    57,143,000      1
KKGBe3   Kazkommerts I
         nternational B.V.              22.4       3.1        20,000      1
MMGZp    Mangistaumunaigas OJSC
ALKSp    Almaty Kus OJSC                 5.9       0.8            60      3
VTZLp    VALYUT TRANZIT
         ZOLOTO JSC                      7.3       1.0       920,000      1
ASBNb2   Alliance Bank JSC           8,771.7   1,212.0 1,357,650,000      6
KZZN     KAZZINC JSC
TEBN     Temirbank JSC
TXBNb1   TEXAKABANK OJSC             2,345.0     324.1   314,590,000     11
ALKZp    Aluminum of
         Kazakhstan JSC                 96.1      13.2        89,784      8
KZTOe1   KazTransOiL CJSC            1,302.3     180.4     1,180,000      1
VTZLb1   VALYUT TRANZIT
         ZOLOTO JSC                      7.3       1.0       920,000      1
KZTKp    Kazakhtelecom JSC              11.5       1.6           748      5
CSBN     BANK CASPIAN JSC              864.6     119.5         5,690      4
HSBK     Halyk Savings Bank
         of Kazakhstan JSC               0.1      0.01            80      1
RAHT     Rakhat OJSC                     0.5       0.1           900      2
KZCRp    TNC Kazchrome OJSC              0.9       0.1           266      8
UTMKp    Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium
         magnesium plant JSC
KKGBp    Kazkommertsbank JSC           0.001    0.0001             1      1
-------- ------------------------- --------- --------- ------------- ------
TOTAL    49                         57,351.4   7,924.9 2,854,629,335    296
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes
of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have
the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" -
eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the
bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first
issue.

Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in April of 2004

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Capitaliza-            Capitaliza-
                 tion                   tion          Bond value  Volume of
               of the                 of the              index,   purchase
                share                  bonds   Bonds   including   and sale
              market,     Share      market,   yield       accum     deals,
Date           m. USD     index       m. USD   index    interest    th. USD
--------  -----------  --------  -----------  ------  ----------  ---------
31.03.04      2,823.9  176.1922      2,771.3    7.22      160.47   10,604.2
01.04.04      2,820.0  177.5718      2,772.7    7.32      159.96    6,660.2
02.04.04      2,961.1  182.0582      2,773.0    7.32      159.93    2,289.2
05.04.04      2,960.9  181.7832      2,774.4    7.24      160.41      320.6
06.04.04      2,968.9  182.6172      2,796.4    7.17      160.88      282.6
07.04.04      2,785.5  173.1190      2,796.9    7.34      159.95    3,670.3
08.04.04      2,965.9  185.0094      2,797.8    7.43      159.43        3.6
09.04.04      2,970.5  184.0264      2,798.4    7.40      159.52    6,035.3
12.04.04      2,978.4  185.2727      2,799.5    7.42      159.48    5,984.9
13.04.04      2,978.9  184.0680      2,803.6    7.42      159.47       50.8
14.04.04      2,977.6  182.7261      2,810.2    7.50      159.10    3,013.1
15.04.04      3,044.2  188.3237      2,811.0    7.47      159.29       29.0
16.04.04      3,047.1  188.2795      2,812.0    7.51      160.46    1,385.4
19.04.04      3,043.9  188.7526      2,812.0    7.63      158.67    1,312.8
20.04.04      3,051.4  189.3070      2,812.1    7.60      158.93    2,935.3
21.04.04      3,051.9  188.7641      2,810.8    7.66      158.54    5,193.4
22.04.04      3,045.0  186.3139      2,809.1    7.64      158.70    8,531.5
23.04.04      3,041.7  185.6814      2,807.2    7.71      158.25    2,328.3
26.04.04      3,037.1  186.7961      2,807.4    7.73      158.25    2,501.3
27.04.04      3,033.1  186.7281      2,805.7    7.74      158.22    2,517.9
28.04.04      3,035.5  186.7135      2,805.4    7.74      158.20    1,179.7
29.04.04      3,036.1  186.5350      2,804.4    7.81      157.95    4,541.8
30.04.04      3,044.3  186.7269      2,807.4    7.94      157.23    1,835.2
--------  -----------  --------  -----------  ------  ----------  ---------
Тренд          +220.4  +10.5347        +36.1   +0.72       -3.24          ,
                +7.8%     +6.0%        +1.3%  +10.0%       -2.0%          ,
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. The capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions.

[2004-06-03]