In May of 2004 volume of CS purchase and sale deals at KASE rose 4.4 times to $275.8 m

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 3, 04/ - In May of 2004 at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 351 deals were made in corporate securities (CS) in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT37,659.4 m. or $275.8 m. at current rate of KASE effective on the day the deals were made. The stated sum takes only 6.8% out of the total exchange turnover. In comparison with April of 2004 volume of transactions increased by $213.2 m. (KZT29.0 bn.) or 4.4 times (by 4.35% in terms of tenge). Relative to May of 2003 volume of transactions rose by $77.5 m. (KZT7.8 bn.) or by 39.1% (26.1% in terms of tenge). Structure of CS turnover at KASE in May is presented in the following way: 2.0% ($5,617.1 th) of conducted deals took primary offerings and 98.0% ($270,142.4 th) fell on secondary market. No deals involving state stakes of shares were made. By comparison, following indicators characterized the structure of stock exchange's CS sector in April 2004: Primary market - 8.4% ($5,205.8 th); secondary market - 91.6% ($57,351.4). From tables below it follows that huge volume of trades was, first of all, induced by active trades over common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC (KZMS). Only 4 deals were made over KZMS between two KASE members on May 20 for $172.6 m, that constitutes to 72.6% of the whole CS turnover at KASE, 63.9% of CS purchase-sale secondary market of KASE or 80.8% of shares turnover in May. The asset traded was the package of 2,431,196 common shares of Corporation Kazakhmys JSC (11.5% of announced shares of the company). Parameters of deals coupled with moderate comments of both parties allows assuming that deals resulted in change of major shareholders of the copper monopoly. However, without even those deals the market looked quite active either in shares and corporate debt instruments sectors. For instance, volume of trades over corporate bonds rose relative to April by 46.8%, while number of deals went up almost by third. At equity market trades volume rose by 118%, number of deals went up by 7%. In IRBIS analysts' opinions, following factors induced greater trades in CS in May: - Rapid decline of primary offerings of government securities (GS) and such securities becoming more illiquid at secondary market led to (1) outflow of investors' capital from CS to GS sector and (2) more of idle tenges at market, that consequently invoked higher demand for corporate debt securities and required more active work on shares when used as collateral for "hidden repo". - Major transactions over KZMS encouraged additional restructuring of funds at market including corporate securities resale. - Stagnation in yield trend of Kazakhstani corporate bonds in May (in April KASE_BY index rose by 10,0%, while in May only by 1.1%), affected by ratings upgrade of Standard & Poor's to an investment grade and other factors, required that holders of corporate bonds change their positions on many securities with locking in of profits and minimization of losses. Forecast for June in the given sector don't look transparent. May events revealed that CS exchange market remains impulsive and affected by significant influence of local unpredictable factors. So far it could only be expected that stagnation at GS market positively influence CS market. Following are the tables, which show stock exchange's CS market in May, 2004. Most tradable securities at KASE in May of 2004 (purchase and sale only, excluding deals in SBS and primary floatations) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Code Volume of Volume of Volume of Number of deals, deals, deals in of security Brief title of the issuer th. USD m. KZT securities deals -------- ------------------------- --------- --------- ------------- ------ KZMS Corporation Kazakhmys JSC 377.7 52.3 14,963 9 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 933.0 128.8 123,318 19 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 49.9 6.9 500 1 VTBN VALUT-TRANZIT BANK OJSC 3,367.4 465.9 1,399,535 16 CCBN Bank CenterCredit OJSC 3,490.0 483.3 2,358,760 16 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company CJSC 3,444.9 478.6 451,700,000 4 ORDB Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,836.4 254.1 107,931 29 YASYb1 YASSY OJSC 1,919.7 265.1 27,043 1 ORDBp Corporation Ordabasy JSC 1,650.9 227.6 253,670 1 ALKS Almaty Kus OJSC 572.0 78.9 7,386,833 10 BTAS Bank TuranAlem JSC 49.9 6.9 500 1 HSBKp Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 2.8 0.4 26 1 MREKb1 Mangistau Electricity Distribution Company OJSC UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POULTRY FARM OJSC 744.6 102.6 9,100 2 BTASe1 TuranAlem Finance B.V. 105.2 14.5 100,000 2 UTMK Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium- magnesium combine JSC 1.5 0.2 105 5 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK OJSC 2,345.0 324.1 314,590,000 11 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 28.6 4.0 190 2 BRKZb1 Development Bank of Kazakhstan JSC 9,353.8 1,289.6 1,350,000 4 ROSAb1 ROSA JSC ALKSb2 Almaty Kus OJSC 625.5 86.4 7,209,750 18 CCBNb3 Bank CenterCredit JSC 33.4 4.6 3,700,000 2 CSBNb2 BANK CASPIAN JSC 864.6 119.5 5,690 4 ASFIb2 Astana-finance OJSC 611.1 84.5 843,383 8 VTBNp VALUT-TRANZIT BANK OJSC 4,600.8 636.6 1,988,482 27 RGBRb3 RG BRANDS OJSC 1,853.8 255.8 251,500,000 7 KZIKb1 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company CJSC 12.9 1.8 170 1 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 166.8 23.0 21,800,000 4 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC ARNAb1 ARNA OJSC 148.4 20.5 1,948 3 VTZL VALYUT TRANZIT ZOLOTO JSC 7.3 1.0 920,000 1 ZERD ZERDE OJSC 571.2 78.8 58,030,043 23 BTAIb1 BTA Mortgage JSC 382.4 53.0 5,300 1 CCBNb2 Bank CenterCredit JSC 531.0 73.4 4,703 3 KARMb2 Karazhanbasmunai OJSC 73.0 10.1 10,000 1 HRLT Charaltyn JSC 1,448.1 200.0 57,143,000 1 KKGBe3 Kazkommerts I nternational B.V. 22.4 3.1 20,000 1 MMGZp Mangistaumunaigas OJSC ALKSp Almaty Kus OJSC 5.9 0.8 60 3 VTZLp VALYUT TRANZIT ZOLOTO JSC 7.3 1.0 920,000 1 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 8,771.7 1,212.0 1,357,650,000 6 KZZN KAZZINC JSC TEBN Temirbank JSC TXBNb1 TEXAKABANK OJSC 2,345.0 324.1 314,590,000 11 ALKZp Aluminum of Kazakhstan JSC 96.1 13.2 89,784 8 KZTOe1 KazTransOiL CJSC 1,302.3 180.4 1,180,000 1 VTZLb1 VALYUT TRANZIT ZOLOTO JSC 7.3 1.0 920,000 1 KZTKp Kazakhtelecom JSC 11.5 1.6 748 5 CSBN BANK CASPIAN JSC 864.6 119.5 5,690 4 HSBK Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC 0.1 0.01 80 1 RAHT Rakhat OJSC 0.5 0.1 900 2 KZCRp TNC Kazchrome OJSC 0.9 0.1 266 8 UTMKp Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium magnesium plant JSC KKGBp Kazkommertsbank JSC 0.001 0.0001 1 1 -------- ------------------------- --------- --------- ------------- ------ TOTAL 49 57,351.4 7,924.9 2,854,629,335 296 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: The securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Small letters in the securities codes have the following meanings: "p" - preferred inscribed share; "b" - bond: "e" - eurobond; the rest - common inscribed share. The figure shows the number of the bond issue. If there is no figure (old code) it implies that it is the first issue. Table of main indicators of the stock exchange's CS market in April of 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capitaliza- Capitaliza- tion tion Bond value Volume of of the of the index, purchase share bonds Bonds including and sale market, Share market, yield accum deals, Date m. USD index m. USD index interest th. USD -------- ----------- -------- ----------- ------ ---------- --------- 31.03.04 2,823.9 176.1922 2,771.3 7.22 160.47 10,604.2 01.04.04 2,820.0 177.5718 2,772.7 7.32 159.96 6,660.2 02.04.04 2,961.1 182.0582 2,773.0 7.32 159.93 2,289.2 05.04.04 2,960.9 181.7832 2,774.4 7.24 160.41 320.6 06.04.04 2,968.9 182.6172 2,796.4 7.17 160.88 282.6 07.04.04 2,785.5 173.1190 2,796.9 7.34 159.95 3,670.3 08.04.04 2,965.9 185.0094 2,797.8 7.43 159.43 3.6 09.04.04 2,970.5 184.0264 2,798.4 7.40 159.52 6,035.3 12.04.04 2,978.4 185.2727 2,799.5 7.42 159.48 5,984.9 13.04.04 2,978.9 184.0680 2,803.6 7.42 159.47 50.8 14.04.04 2,977.6 182.7261 2,810.2 7.50 159.10 3,013.1 15.04.04 3,044.2 188.3237 2,811.0 7.47 159.29 29.0 16.04.04 3,047.1 188.2795 2,812.0 7.51 160.46 1,385.4 19.04.04 3,043.9 188.7526 2,812.0 7.63 158.67 1,312.8 20.04.04 3,051.4 189.3070 2,812.1 7.60 158.93 2,935.3 21.04.04 3,051.9 188.7641 2,810.8 7.66 158.54 5,193.4 22.04.04 3,045.0 186.3139 2,809.1 7.64 158.70 8,531.5 23.04.04 3,041.7 185.6814 2,807.2 7.71 158.25 2,328.3 26.04.04 3,037.1 186.7961 2,807.4 7.73 158.25 2,501.3 27.04.04 3,033.1 186.7281 2,805.7 7.74 158.22 2,517.9 28.04.04 3,035.5 186.7135 2,805.4 7.74 158.20 1,179.7 29.04.04 3,036.1 186.5350 2,804.4 7.81 157.95 4,541.8 30.04.04 3,044.3 186.7269 2,807.4 7.94 157.23 1,835.2 -------- ----------- -------- ----------- ------ ---------- --------- Тренд +220.4 +10.5347 +36.1 +0.72 -3.24 , +7.8% +6.0% +1.3% +10.0% -2.0% , --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: The shares index (KASE_Shares) reflects the changes in the bids on the shares from the official Exchange's securities list of "A" category, including the market capitalization of their issuers. The capitalization of the bonds market - indicator that reflects the volume of corporate debt circulating on the KASE as the bonds of the companies. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued bonds and the bonds admitted to the trades and their market values. In case of the absence of the last figure, face value is used instead. Capitalization of the shares market - indicator that reflects the market capitalization of the companies whose shares were entered into official list of the KASE securities. It is calculated on the basis of the number of issued shares and their last market values. In case of the absence of the deals the face values of the securities, expressed in U.S. dollars (if necessary) at the rate of the Exchange for the current day, are used. Bonds yield index (KASE_BY) - weighted average (through capitalization) yield of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Index of bonds yield with accumulated interest (KASE_BP) - weighted average (through capitalization) "dirty" price of the corporate bonds of category "A" of the KASE official list, which is calculated based on the deals or average bids of the market-makers (if there is no deal). Purchase-sale deals volume includes the deals made in state blocks of shares and volume of primary floatations at KASE's specialized trades but it doesn't take into account repo transactions. [2004-06-03]