In May of 2004 volume of transactions with foreign currency at KASE grew by 2.1% to the equivalent of $546.1 m.

/IRBIS, Andrey Tsalyuk, Sergey Yakovlev, May 5, 04/ - In April of 2004 volume of foreign currency transactions at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached the equivalent of USD546,140.0 th. or KZT75,450.6 m. According to preliminary estimation the mentioned volume of transactions controlled 13.8% of April's turnover of the whole market of KASE. Relative to March of 2004 the volume of foreign currency transactions rose by USD11,161.4 (KZT1,122.7 m.) or by 2.1% in terms of dollar and by 1.5% in terms of tenge. Relative to April of 2003 the volume rose by 1.4% in dollar and 1.3% in tenge terms. Total of 4,200 deals (4,151) were made in April of 2004 at KASE (here and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses), including: in U.S. dollars on TOD terms - 4,199 (4,148), on TOM terms - 1 (1), on SPOT terms - 0 (0); in euro - 0 (2), in Russian ruble - 0 (0). Thus, the whole April's turnover of foreign currency at KASE was deals in US dollar. Last month 99.97% of exchange's currency market fell to the stake of US dollar. Tenge strengthening rate against dollar in nominal expression calculated at exchange's weighted average rate of the main session, is estimated in April of 2004 (March 31, 04 = KZT138.93 - April 30, 04 = KZT138.19) by the trend 6.48% APR. Corresponding indicator of March of 2004 - 1.86% APR. Weighted average rate of U.S. dollar, calculated on deals of the main session in April is KZT138.17 per unit, on all exchange's deals - 138.15. For March of 2004 these indicators were KZT138.92 and KZT138.84 per dollar. Volume of over-the-counter deals on USD between the operators- residents of Kazakhstan, according to the data of the National bank since April 1 till April 28 of 2004 (later data is currently unavailable) reached $510,169.0 th. Volume of deals of the whole interbank over-the-counter market during the period: purchase - $548,666.0 th., sale - $569,803.0 th. April at exchange's currency market in great degree looked like March by all signs: general conjuncture, participants' mood, rate volatility and speed of its resulting changing, volume of transactions, ratio of the number of net-buyers and net-sellers of USD, tactics of behavior and stake of participation of the National Bank at exchange's market, exogenous rate-forming factors. Dollar continues to fall against tenge mainly because of traders' psychological mood, which was formed by high oil prices at the world market, reexamination of the forecast of weighted average dollar rate against tenge towards falling, successful offerings of Kazakhstan euronotes (ATFBank JSC). The continued high short-term liquidity of the banking sector caused more pronounced speculative correcting movements of the market upward, which did not change market's appearance much. Invariability of April's conjuncture, relative to March's one, was explained by its dependence on dollar offer volume, which was in April higher a bit. It predetermined more active participation of the National Bank in stock exchange's trades. As well as in March, it mainly supported the market from below, and as the result the stake of exchange's turnover of dollar market in the whole turnover of Kazakhstan currency market grew a bit according to preliminary data. Forecast for May does not seem to be transparent. Judging on the active beginning of the month, one should expect growth of the volume of currency transactions at KASE due to the growth of USD offer volume. It also proved by the record high world oil prices since the year 1990, closing of deal on floatation of euronotes of ATFBank JSC on May 4 for a total of $100 m. and by intention of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC to float its international bonds. Today almost all rate-forming factors concerning tenge- dollar say about acceleration of strengthening of tenge against USD. Judging on results of technical analysis in May the market may go to the side trend. However at present there is no firm confidence for making an exact forecast of such the movement. [2004-05-05]