Dealers anticipate dollar fall once another taxation period begins

/REUTERS, Almaty, Tatyana Seroshtanova, April 16, 04/ - A trend of US dollar fall versus Kazakh tenge will continue prevailing next week since the majority of participants will be selling greenback within first half of the week to pay taxes, dealers say. "In the beginning of the week there will be peak tax payments, which are to end on 20s of April. After that, we will return approximately to KZT138.00. However, the trend remains the same - we're heading for another dollar lows", Yertay Salimov from Halyk bank shared his opinion. According to what dealers predict, dollar may go down to KZT137.50 per $1 next week, followed by readjustment course aimed at KZT137.80 - 138.00. Weighted average tenge rate rose at Friday exchange trades to KZT137.95 from Thursday's KZT137.95 (KZT138.00 on previous Friday). Trades volume today reached $22.975 m and increased in comparison to $10.175 m on Thursday. Current week was noticeable for two major events that impacted local forex market: resignation of first deputy PM Gregory Marchenko, who was immediately appointed as President's advisor, and dollar appreciation versus rouble at Russian markets. Different players reacted differently. "Marchenko's resignation sauced the market. It became sort of "nervous", i.e. though market was ready to go up, banks had to pay (regular) taxes", Salimov from Halyk bank told. Some participants ignored news. The market responded more than calmly because persons like Marchenko can't simply leave", Ivan Novikov, Caspian bank's dealer, told. Kazakhstan dealers kept their eyes on Russian currency market, where the President Valdimir Putin ordered central bank to restrain rouble exchange rate at a stable level. "Because of this we expect Russian rouble's depreciation versus dollar, though it can't be linked to the task given to Central bank to lower the inflation rate. The market goes in opposite direction in Russia and dollar artificially has climbed up", Novikov from Caspian bank told. From what participants say, at Kazakhstan currency market there were several attempts to stimulate dollar up by inducing a panic, but it failed. "Ended up with liquidity crisis as expected. Both today and yesterday we have been witnessing dollar following its logic path - downward. Foreign currency revenues continue flowing in, world oil prices unchanged. OPEK lowered quotes once again, therefore we're facing inescapable tenge rise", Novikov concluded. [2004-04-16]