Dollar in Kazakhstan grows due to speculative mood of the market - dealers

/REUTERS, Almaty, Tatyana Seroshtanova, March 3, 04/ - On Wednesday dollar in Kazakhstan went on growing against tenge, dealers explain it by speculative mood of participants. As is expected, today's statement of National Bank's head Anvar Saidenov, who expects strengthening of national currency this year, will correct their actions. Weighted average rate of tenge fell to 139.46 for $1 at the trades of Kazakhstan stock exchange from KZT139.19 on Tuesday and from KZT139.13 on Monday. Trade volume rose on Wednesday to $15.425 m. from $11.505 m. on Tuesday. Saidenov said on Wednesday average annual rate of rate of tenge against dollar in the year 2004 would exceed forecasts as well as the level of last year, when it was KZT149.45 per $1, but did not call figures. "Saidenov's statement was made after the market jerked upward today. I don't think it's a serious movements regarding dollar against tenge", - said one of dealers of Halyk bank of Kazakhstanа. "Now we can't see exported proceeds, which was to come. In addition, banks have "shortened" and begin to buy again. It's hard to made a long-term outlook now", - he added. Under conditions of stable strengthening of tenge National Bank is almost the only buyer of currency at Kazakhstan market. However during the last week of February, according to Saidenov's words, the bank did not participate in trades - because dollar's growth was promoted by outer factors, in particular, the started strengthening against euro. Saidenov stated that reduction of currency proceeds inflow from export of oil and metals was not observed and marked falling of activity of currency sellers in the end of the past month. "Today the market is interesting. We have come out of the side trend. We traded within KZT138.80-139.30 per $1 for about a month. This week the market was tested. Volatility is very high", - said one of dealers of Kazkommertsbank. According to the words of one dealer of bank TuranAlem, "it's difficult now to determine whether dollar will be strengthening for a long time or not". "As it seems to us, it's concerned in greater degree with the fact that the rate euro/dollar is correcting - euro becomes cheaper, dollar is growing", - he said. Some participants think if resistance is absent, dollar may grow to KZT139.60 within the nearest two weeks. Dealers suppose National Bank will interfere if it goes higher. "One should expect it (National Bank) somewhere upwards, but it's not clear yet on which level. May be near KZT139.80-139.90 for $1", - said Kazkommertsbank's dealer. Market's participants do not exclude renewal of National currency's growth in the second half of March, after the beginning of traditional payments to the state budget. [2004-03-03]