Dealers in Kazakhstan expects dollar's decrease in the next week

/REUTERS, Алматы, Tatyana Seroshtanova, November 14, 03/ - Kazakhstan foreign exchange market expects insignificant dollar's decrease in the next week thanks to export revenue inflow, regardless probable attempts of bulls to strengthen dollar in short-term perspective, dealers say. "In the next week there should be no radical changes". Probably, consolidation will be at current levels of 147.00-147.20 tenge per $1. Probably there will be speculative carrying-out, but short-term ones, with ranges likely to be 20-30 tiyns (copecks)", - Igor Romanenko from Temirbank admitted. One of Kazkommertsbank's dealers agrees with him. "At present high volumes of client's sales is the case - revenues from export comes in. It is likely that we'll drop to 147 per $1. Then dollar' increase is expected", - he said. On Friday weighted-average tenge rate increased at exchange trades up to 147.11 per $1 from 147.33 on Thursday and 147.18 tenge on previous Friday. The volume of trades grew to $15,305 mn from $9,870 mn on Thursday. According to dealers, some participants were striving for achieving 148 tenge level per $1, however their attempts turned out to be unsuccessful. "It was apparent that someone unsuccessfully tried to reach and consolidate above 148 tenge per $1. The market despaired of doing so, and ascending motion declined. It seems to me that after all majority of banks decided to turn over their positions, and if someone was forming long positions prior to it, then however short position started increasing in number", - Romanenko said. In short run, participants do not expect significant tenge appreciation, though they do so if "psychological level" is overcome. "There will be no strong (dollar's) fall, provided that 146.70 tenge per $1 is not the case", - a dealer of Kazkommertsbank assumes. Romanenko from Temirbank shares his opinion. "Fundamentally, if 147 per $1 point is passed, the (dollar's) fall could be down to 146 tenge"- he thinks. In market participants' opinions, the range of fluctuations of dollar rate in the nearest months will be nearly 1.0-1.5 tenge. Inflow of funds from sale of Kazakhstani exported goods (oil, metals, seeds) and foreign borrowings, as well tight control of the National bank over the inflation will be restraining significant dollar's increase, market participants say. "Fundamental factors remain the same: there is plenty of revenues from exports. At current active borrowings at foreign markets resumed its activities - Development bank of Kazakhstan floated (10 years eurobonds) for $100 mn, banks were attracting syndicated loans, - Romanenko from Temirbank said. - Tenge rate appreciation mediated through import price increase, would contributed to inflation rate increase, therefore, the National bank was cut shorting such attempts during the past time. [2003-11-14]