Asian Development Bank enhanced the predictions of growth in Central Asia

/REUTERS, Almaty, September 30, 03/ - Asian Development Bank (ADB) enhanced the predictions of economic growth in 2003-2004 in Central Asian countries as a whole, yet reviewed and reduced individual predictions of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the bank informed on Tuesday. In the report called Asian Development Outlook 2003 Update the total GDP growth of Central Asian countries is estimated to be 7.5% (in April bank expected the growth of 5.8%), and in 2004- 5.4% (previous forecast - 5.8%) in comparison with 7.3% in 2002. Among the reasons for reviewing its predictions bank mentioned high world prices on oil, gas and cotton. At the same time the bank points to the fact, that political instability in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, closing of boundaries from Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan's side as well as the worsening political situation in Afghanistan create risks for regional economy. Moreover, ABD highlights the weakness and underdevelopment of financial sector in the region, where only Kazakhstan has made one step forward in the course of reforms. Below, actual and predicted indexes of GDP growth in Central Asian region as a whole and as separate countries published by the bank, are introduced: -------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 2004 ------------------- ------------------- --------- -------- --------- -------- 2002 previous new previous new actual forecasts forecast forecasts forecast ------------ ------ --------- -------- --------- -------- Central Asia 7.3 5.8 7.5 5.8 5.9 Azerbaijan 10.6 9.5 9.5 8.0 8.0 Kazakhstan 9.4 6.0 9.5 6.2 7.0 Kyrgyztan -0.5 5.2 5.2 4.5 5.0 Tajikistan 9.1 7.1 6.0 5.0 4.0 Turkmenistan 8.6* 7.5 10.0 7.5 7.5 Uzbekistan 3.2** 3.5 3.2 4.0 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------- * - official statistics points to GDP growth in Turkmenistan in 2002 by 21.2%. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates it at 5.1% level. ** - the government of Uzbekistan was informing about economic growth in 2002 of 4.2%. [2003-09-30]