U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, September 22, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market) according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange ------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM KASE's session Main Additional Additional (morning) (day) (evening) Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 ----------------- ------------ ------------ Indicator value trend value trend value trend ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Opening rate 147.00 0 147.73 +0.18 - - ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Maximum rate 147.85 -0.15 147.78 +0.22 - - Volume on max. price 5 0 900 +800 0 -500 ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Minimum rate 147.00 0 147.50 +0.06 - - volume on min. price 5 0 50 -2660 0 -500 ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Closing rate 147.75 +0.17 147.67 +0.23 - - ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Weight. aver. rate 147.69 +0.12 147.68 +0.20 - - Volume of the session 5515 +110 8300 -3310 0 -500 Number of deals 48 +14 42 -30 0 -1 Number of participants 17 +1 16 +3 1 -2 ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- Best ask* 147.74 +0.16 147.65 +0.22 147.60 0 Best bid* 147.90 +0.30 147.69 +0.23 - - ---------------------- --------- ------- ------ ----- ------ ----- REUTERS Bid* 147.78 +0.04 147.67 +0.10 147.62 -0.04 REUTERS Ask* 147.86 +0.02 147.87 +0.15 147.73 -0.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------ * at closing of the session at KASE. out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms --------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY: Morning Day ------------------------ session: session: time (ALT): Price ------------ ------------ ----------- level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- 147.85 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15 147.78 900 3 900 3 12:10 12:11 147.75 700 7 700 7 10:23 11:00 147.74 605 3 900 3 1505 6 10:59 12:25 147.73 500 2 700 3 1200 5 10:58 11:45 147.71 200 1 150 3 350 4 10:58 14:30 147.70 1050 6 1050 6 10:30 10:57 147.69 200 2 600 2 800 4 10:53 14:30 147.68 50 1 50 1 10:53 10:53 147.67 250 3 800 4 1050 7 10:52 15:29 147.66 650 4 1900 12 2550 16 10:41 15:26 147.65 50 1 1100 4 1150 5 10:41 15:17 147.64 100 2 200 2 300 4 10:43 15:17 147.63 250 5 300 2 550 7 10:43 14:41 147.62 100 2 100 1 200 3 10:46 15:15 147.61 200 3 300 1 500 4 10:47 14:41 147.60 600 4 600 4 10:47 10:49 147.57 300 1 300 1 14:45 14:45 147.50 50 1 50 1 14:45 14:45 147.00 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15 ------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- TOTAL 5515 48 8300 42 13815 90 10:15 15:29 --------------------------------------------------------- The day at Kazakhstan market of US dollar demonstrated that a few banks still experience problems with tenge. All today's events were taking place against a background of record high for current year quotes and repo "overnight" rates. In IRBIS analysts' opinion, notable tenge deficit unusual in general terms for this year, was caused mainly by relatively low volumes of sales in September at domestic market of denominated in foreign currency revenues of exporters. Had we had large volumes of sales, as it was case in the end of winter and in spring, banks would manage without considerable effort to support their short-term liquidity at surplus level even in periods when clients pay taxes. At present, they have to solve their problems other way. The fact that the main bank, recently lending tenge at convenient rates should banks face problems at repo exchange market, does not participate in trades for a three days is not a minor peculiarity of current situation. As a result banks have to accept the terms of non-state money sellers, and they are very tough ones. For subjects of pension market lending for a day is not advantageous. They prefer longer terms. Due to this fact the shortest money on repo are lent by those few banks that currently have that money. From this high rates follow. It is also possible that by its passivity on repo market, the National Bank tries to neutralize speculative behavior of traders willing to "bet on dollar's moving up", using relatively small volume of its supply. By denying an access to cheap tenge resources, the National Bank limits the volume of speculative demand on USD. Described conjecture of money market distorted of dollar sellers' success during morning session at KASE. During afternoon, market came back to previous levels, demonstrating shaky equilibrium inside price channel that was reached at previous week. However, as during previous day, the majority of participants preferred not to substantially reduce their currency positions, expressing trusts in high potential of American currency. Predicting further events, IRBIS analysts tend to turn attention to the fact that day at the exchange closed with minimal rates of repo "overnight" - 5% APR. Paying off the notes on September 23 and coupon payments on MEOKAM are able to support banks' liquidity. From this it follows that by Wednesday currency dealers can realize their intentions about betting on dollar's moving up at dollar market, if those intentions are still present under described situation. IRBIS prediction for Tuesday - insignificant growth of dollar rate at morning session and sellers' attempts to retain achieved level afternoon. Breaking 148.00 level is postponed to Wednesday or Thursday. [2003-09-22]