QUESTIONING - Forecast of bonds' yield in Kazakhstan

/REUTERS, Almaty, Oljas Auezov, September 5, 03/ - Traders in Kazakhstan don't expect significant changes of government and corporate bonds' yield during the next month, explaining it by the fact that prices of domestic government securities have reached the top, and liquidity of eurobonds has significantly decreased. According to the data of traditional questioning of Reuters, which was made on Thursday, most questioned traders of largest banks believe that yield of government securities will be stable because of fluctuations of dollar rate in September, and can increase only several months later. " In the principle yield of tenge instruments is not to decrease anymore, as it is possible to invest in dollar", -trader of Kazkommertsbank considers. The strengthening of tenge, which was continuing within the first seven months of 2003, in August changed into dollar increasing, though traders don't exclude that tenge will begin to win back positions in the end September. At the same time traders consider that the observed decreasing of tenge relative to dollar will not cause immediate increase of tenge securities' yield. "Inflation has not changed, there are still a lot of free money", - said trader of ABN AMRO Bank. Prices of corporate eurobonds will not increase in the nearest time either, traders consider. "Liquidity of securities (Kazakhstan eurobonds) has abruptly decreased, trades are very flat ", - said trader of ATFBank. "There is no demand for currency securities yet", - agreed with him trader of bank TuranAlem. Below are forecasts of yield on various instruments (for National Bank's notes and bonds of the Ministry of finance - weighted average yield at forthcoming auctions, for corporate securities - average index between demand and offer, as percentage per annum, by the end of the period - month, three months and half- year): ---------------------------------------------------- in 1 month 3 months 6 months ------------------ ---------- --------- --------- Semiannual (182/189 days) NBK's notes (yield at the last auction on August 22 - 5.12% APR) (yield at the last auction on August 22 - 5.12% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 4.90 4.80 4.80 ATFBank 5.00 - - Kazkommertsbank 5.00-5.20 5.00-5.20 5.00-5.20 Bank TuranAlem 4.80 4.90 5.00 Bank CenterCredit 5.00 5.00 5.00 ------------------ ---------- --------- --------- Two-year MEOKAM (GTB) (yield at the last auction on August 11 - 5.80% APR) (yield at the last auction on August 11 - 5.80% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 5.80 5.50 5.50 ATFBank 6.20 - - Kazkommertsbank 6.00-6.50 6.00-6.50 6.00-6.50 Bank TuranAlem 6.00 6.10 6.20 Bank CenterCredit 6.00 6.00 6.00 ------------------ ---------- --------- --------- Three-year MEOKAM (GTB) (yield at the last auction on August 4 - 6.00% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 5.90 5.60 5.60 ATFBank 6.20 - - Kazkommertsbank 6.00-6.50 6.00-6.50 6.00-6.50 Bank TuranAlem 6.00 6.20 6.30 Bank CenterCredit 6.00 6.00 6.00 ------------------ ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazakhstan with maturity in 2007 ATFBank 3.90 3.90 3.90 Kazkommertsbank 3.50-3.60 3.50-3.60 3.50-3.60 Bank TuranAlem 3.80 3.80 4.00 Bank CenterCredit 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 3.00-4.00 ------------------ ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazkommerts International B.V. - 2007 ATFBank 6.90 6.90 6.90 Kazkommertsbank 6.80-7.00 6.80-7.00 6.80-7.00 Bank TuranAlem 6.60 6.50 6.50 Bank CenterCredit 7.00-7.50 7.00-7.50 7.00-7.50 ------------------ ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of TuranAlem Finance B.V. - 2007. ATFBank 7.60 7.60 7.60 Kazkommertsbank 6.80-7.00 6.80-7.00 6.80-7.00 Bank TuranAlem 7.00 6.80 6.50 Bank CenterCredit 7.00-7.50 7.00-7.50 7.00-7.50 ---------------------------------------------------- [2003-09-05]