In first half year of 2003 volume of all transactions at KASE reached $14,501.3m, and grew 1.5 times increase

/IRBIS, July 02, 03/ - During the first half year of 2003 total volume of transactions made in all sectors of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached an equivalent of $14,501.3m, or KZT2,201.1bn. Compared to similar period of last year, turnover increased 1.5 times measured in dollars and tenge. Compared to previous half-year (July - December 2002) the turnover at the Exchange decreased by 3.7% in dollars, and 5.5% in tenge. Following is the table of volumes of deals made at KASE during those periods, as well as dynamics of the turnover structure of the Exchange (in millions USD unless otherwise indicated). The calculation was made in terms of dollars. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ To I half year of 2002 To previous period --------------------------- ------------------------------ Sector I half trend trend of KASE year I half year --------------- II half year ----------------- market 2003 2002 m USD % 2002 M USD % --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- Foreign 2,629.9 1,101.3 +1,528.7 +138.8 1,879.5 +750.5 +39.9 currency 18.1% 11.5% 12.5% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- Futures 1,052.030 385.8 +666.3 +172.7 448.0 604.0 -100.0 7.3% 4.0% 3.0% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- GS 913.7 713.2 +200.4 +28.1 1,237.8 -324.1 -26.2 6.3% 7.4% 8.2% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- CS 474.8 166.2 +308.7 +185.7 437.4 37.4 +8.6 3.3% 1.7% 2.9% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- Repo (CS 9,430.7 7,217.4 +2,213.3 +30.7 11,056.8 -1,626.1 -14.7 and GS) total 65.0% 75.3% 73.4% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- Incl repo on GS 1,154.8 1,112.2 +42.6 +3.8 1 827.8 -673.1 -36.8 direct 8.0% 11.6% 12.1% Incl autorepo 8,048.5 6,064.6 +1,983.9 +32.7 9,105.6 -1,057.1 -11.6 On GS 55.5% 63.3% 60.5% Incl repo on CS 178.3 40.7 +137.6 +338.3 119.6 58.7 +49.0 direct 1.23% 0.4% 0.8% Incl autorepo 49.1 0 +49.1 X 3.7 +45.4 +1 217.1 On CS 0.339% 0% 0.02% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- Promisso- 0.096 0.023 +0.073 +309.7 0 +0.096 X ry Notes 0.001% 0.0002% 0% --------- --------- ----------- -------- ------ ------------ -------- -------- TOTAL 14,501.3 9,583.9 +4,917.4 +51.3 15,059.5 -558.2 -3.7 100% 100% 100% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Following is the table with the dynamics of the turnover of the Exchange in last 7 months, which is grouped by months and market sectors (both in KZT and USD). ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Indi- sector cator XII-2002 I-2003 II-2003 III-2003 IV-2003 V-2003 VI-2003 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- Est. m USD ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Foreign volume 430.3 306.6 607.6 356.6 398.6 393.0 567.5 currency % 12.3 14.4 26.5 18.9 16.5 17.5 16.1 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- Futures volume 187.0 0 0.500 1.505 0.005 0 1,050.0 % 5.3 0 0.022 0.080 0.0002 0 29.8 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- GS volume 432.6 218.5 200.9 160.8 87.8 137.0 108.7 % 12.3 10.2 8.8 8.5 3.6 6.1 3.1 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- CS volume 282.7 78.5 27.9 41.6 82.7 198.2 45.9 % 8.1 3.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 8.8 1.3 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- REPO volume 2,176.8 1,528.9 1,456.5 1,323.9 1,846.6 1,518.3 1,756.6 % 62.0 71.7 63.5 70.3 76.4 67.6 49.8 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- Promiss. volume 0 0 0.096 0 0 0 0 notes % 0 0 0.004 0 0 0 0 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- TOTAL 3,509.4 2,132.4 2,293.5 1,884.5 2,415.7 2,246.5 3,528.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Est. m KZT ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Foreign volume 67.0 47.6 93.2 54.0 60.6 59.3 84.5 currency % 12.3 14.4 26.5 18.9 16.5 17.5 16.1 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- Futures volume 29.3 0 0.076 0.229 0.001 0 157.2 % 5.4 0 0.022 0.080 0.0002 0 29.9 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- GS volume 67.4 33.9 30.8 24.4 13.3 20.7 16.2 % 12.3 10.2 8.8 8.5 3.6 6.1 3.1 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- CS volume 44.0 12.2 4.3 6.3 12.6 29.9 6.8 % 8.1 3.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 8.8 1.3 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- REPO volume 338.8 237.6 223.3 200.5 280.7 229.2 261.5 % 62.0 71.7 63.5 70.2 76.4 67.6 49.7 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- Promiss. volume 0 0 0.015 0 0 0 0 notes % 0 0 0.004 0 0 0 0 -------- ------ -------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------- ------- TOTAL 546.4 331.4 351.7 285.5 367.2 339.1 526.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note to the tables: in sector of government securities (GS) only deals from primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary are considered, in sector of corporate securities (CS) only deals from primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary (including SBS) are considered, in repo sector only repo transactions with CS and GS, including automatic repo. As IRBIS analysts suggested it, the first summer month appeared to be hot at KASE. Suffice it to note that the total volume of exchange transactions, which reached $3,528.7 m in June, is record high exchange turnover for the whole KASE history. Previous similar record was held in December 2002, when dollar equivalent of the exchange turnover totaled 3,509.4 As it can be seen from the presented information, such a high figure was reached in June generally due to sharp expanding of the futures market, whose volume exceeded one billion dollars at cost of purchased and sold contracts on $1,000. However it is not evidence for futures market revival, as at the beginning of July there were no open positions at the Exchange. It seems KASE members and their clients periodically use the futures market for realization of their financing schemes, no more than. As it was expected, the volume of exchange currency transactions substantially grew (by $174.5 m or 44%). During the whole month exporters were selling their currency proceeds, which led to tenge strengthening by 1.82% in nominal expression. There are still same reasons for large dollar inflows to the domestic market: high prices for major articles of Kazakhstan export and great currency volume, borrowed by Kazakhstan banks abroad. Also, the sale of state block of shares of SNPS-Aktobemunaigaz OJSC had special role in growth of the currency market in June. In addition forecasts of IRBIS analysts regarding repo market were justified too. Higher (than in May) short-term liquidity of the banking sector, caused by purchasing large volumes of currency in the domestic market by the National Bank, led to increase of the size of repo transaction by $238.4 m or 15.7%. The market of government securities, however, was contrary to the expectations. After intended expansion in May it converged again (volume of transactions decreased by May by $28.4 m or by 20.6%). Appearance of "long" notes of the NBK caused activation of the secondary market due to counter restructuring of portfolios by investors. However this effect was brief. Further funds from secondary market of GS went to the primary and repo sector. In June Volume of primary floatation of municipal GS at KASE also was less significant than in May. Decline of deals volume in sector of purchase and sale of CS can be explained by the sale of SBS of SNPS-Aktobemunaigaz OJSC for $150.2m in May. As it was expected SBS realization, made due to geo political reasons, didn't have an effect on the stock exchange market of Kazakhstan. If we put away statistics, in June the volume of exchange operations with CS at KASE remained at the level of May, rather high for the current year. According to the results of the half-year, development of the exchange market in Kazakhstan goes (besides increase of turnover) to increasing share of transactions related to foreign currency and corporate securities, in other words at the expense of the sectors that are concerned with actual sector of economy. Forecast of the exchange activity for July looks clear. Most likely, KASE market will not able to come up June volume, as it is difficult to imagine such high activity of exchange members in futures contracts. Also IRBIS specialists expect decline of volume of currency operations for the absence of the influence of large SBS sale on the market. The decline won't be large for payments of income tax for the quarter-end would force exporters to increase realization volumes of currency proceeds in the domestic market. Lower short-term liquidity of the banking sector, caused by the budget payments for the quarter ended, can negatively influence repo market. For the same reasons GS market doesn't inspire. The only sector of the exchange market, where the high possibility of growth in transactions volume exists, is the market of corporate securities. Its activation is possible as a result of offering new bonds that passed the listing procedures at KASE in the second half of June, and also due to increasing shares turnover. [2003-07-02]