/IRBIS, February 24, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.

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Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument                    USD TOD       USD TOD     USD TOM      USD SPOT
Session                          Main   Additional.     Evening       Evening
Time of trades (AST)    10:15a-11:00a  11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p   2:00p-6:00p
Rate (KZT/USD)          152.16(-0.13) 152.47(+0.18)           -             -
Volume of session (m)  7.265(-17.940) 7.510(+3.810)           0             0
Bid                     152.17(-0.10) 152.47(+0.22)   152.50(-)             -
Offer                   152.24(-0.05) 152.54(+0.24)           -             -
Number of participants         12(-1)        15(+2)       1(+1)             -
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Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information
system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates)
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Bid                     152.18(-0.05) 152.50(+0.26)             152.57(+0.23)
Offer                   152.24(-0.04) 152.55(+0.26)             152.63(+0.24)
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Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations.

Conjuncture of US dollar market of Kazakhstan sharply decreased today. Already the morning session of KASE demonstrated market's movement upwards though as the whole the trades were like on previous days. Fist of all, the conjuncture was changed the sharp decrease of dollar offer volume. In the opinion of IRBIS specialists it occurred because of two reasons: because of decrease of participants' currency positions as the result of the long USD over-sale, and also in accordance with ending of budget payments after February 20. The latter factor significantly influenced banks' short-term liquidity, and as the result of it cost of the shortest money at KASE fell below 4% APR today.

Results of stock exchange's day trades surpassed all expectations. "Stagnant" on lowest levels in expectation of natural technical correction market almost rushed upwards due to growing demand of several banks. It's notable that dollar was purchased by some leading operators of money floor, which usually specialized in its sale. During the trade USD's rate rose from 152.26 to 152.54, and only damping effect of the head bank, which hampered changing of the rate, pulled the rate down by closing of the trades to 152.47. However at over the counter market USD went on strengthening very quickly, and the day at interbank closed with marked increase.

According to results of the day there appears impression that the market is unambiguously open upwards and is able to move that way during nearest days.

IRBIS analysts still expect compensating growth of dollar's rate till the middle of the first decade of March i.e. till the beginning of selling at KASE the next large lots of exporters' currency proceeds. Besides, one of the large banks on March 11 is to pay almost 40 million dollars within the framework of syndicated loan, that can significantly support USD even during the period of increase of its offer volume. It should be noted that since the end of January there is gradual strengthening of dollar's positions relative to euro at the world market, that also promotes to weakening of tenge.

The possible height of the started technical correction can be estimated according to the data of the technical analysis. Now the correction has three potential targets: 153.03; 153.55 and 154.10. The first two ones are most promising because there are no serious presuppositions for market's turning upwards on account of changed fundamental data. Market's achieving the third goal with high degree of probability will cause reverse breaking of support line of the main ascending channel, which at present acts as resistance line and this fact or the reverse breaking can give a powerful signal for market's raising to new historic tops (i.e. higher than 156.36). But such the development of events in presence of existing oil prices is improbable.

[2003-02-24]