U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, February 12, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 153.90(-0.10) 154.00( 0) - - Volume of session (m) 32.400(-10.010) 6.850(+2.520) 0 0 Bid 153.89(-0.11) 154.00(+0.04) - - Offer 153.90(-0.11) 154.09(+0.09) - - Number of participants 15(+1) 14(+1) 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bid 153.84(-0.11) 153.96(+0.02) 153.95(+0.01) Offer 153.90(-0.11) 154.06(+0.04) 154.03(+0.03) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations.
The passed day at US dollar market of Kazakhstan has polarized more opinions of analysis and the KASE's web-forum concerning the forecast of further dynamics of dollar's rate. The market has not changed much objectively relative to previous day. Volume of USD offer remains very high. Banks' disposition at KASE is characterized with significant prevailing of dollar net-sellers over net-purchasers. The former work both for purchasing and selling as well as before, the latter - mainly only for purchasing. The stake of participation of the country's head bank at the stock exchange's market remains high and has decreased a bit today pro rata with total trade volume. Judging on the morning session's results, weighted average rate of USD still wins downward 10-15 points a day. Money, which have been received from dollar sale, are used by banks mainly for investing into notes, yield of which, taking into account the insignificant length of the instrument, seems to be available due to tenge strengthening.
The opposite estimation is caused mainly by stock exchange's day trades, during which the height of correcting growth of dollar's rate reached today 15 points (from 153.85 to 154.00) - the very high for recent time size. As the result, first time for many days, dollar managed to win back positions it lost during the day, and the market at "interbank" closed with minimal growth.
Currency dealers, who worked at the exchange's floor, also unambiguously estimate the situation. Spreads of quotations at the KASE's morning session reached 20 points today.
According to the technical analysis results of the day trades, which closed on rather higher level than the morning ones, are the evidence of the market's turning. "The remaining two days of this week will finally form market's turning to correcting falling, potential purpose of which is to be within 154.60", - writes "technician" of IRBIS.
At the same time, attentive studying of tactics of currency dealers' work at KASE says dollar's rate is growing in the final phase of the day trade on account of fixation of profit on short positions, which was opened several days ago. Taking into account steadfastness of the trend of the rate changing, it is quite admissible. And this is precisely the reason dollar may be purchased on at the price, which exceeds the morning trade's weighted average rate (in the morning a new position is opened for further two-three days). Prices difference, which has been accumulated since opening of the position, is enough. Profit is fixed in the afternoon because before the noon traders have not enough information about current liquidity of their banks. Besides, in the afternoon its easier to forecast the market for the next day. In case the forecast is incorrect, its easy to turn purchasing of dollar into opening of long position.
The described tactics is realized at KASE by several traders, but one - in more expressed way. This participant comes out of the market in the evening with the net-position, which is close to zero, for long time already, and precisely due to this trader's demand dollar's rate in mainly growing in the afternoon.
Efficiency of short position on dollar, which was opened in the beginning of the month (weekly tendency), is estimated now by analysis of IRBIS on weighted average rates at about 28% APR that is significantly higher than any other instruments, which are circulating at the market.
It follows from the mentioned above that speculations are the rate-forming factor for the market's trend is set mainly by dollar sales by banks' clients. And these sales will continue because their peak usually appears in the middle of the month. This factor is major. And it's precisely it, what does not allow to consider local dollar's rate in the evening as a serious signal for market's turning to expressed technical correction.
As a whole, today the market was closer to turning than on Tuesday. However forecast of IRBIS analysts, who prefer fundamental analysis, is tenge strengthening on Thursday with achieved speed and development of this tendency till the end of the week.
[2003-02-12]