In first 11 months of 2002 volume of transactions at KASE reached equivalent of $21.1 bn and grew 2.57 times
/IRBIS, December 2, 02/ - During the first 11 months of 2002 total volume of transactions made in all sectors of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached equivalent of $21,134.0 m, or KZT3,244.8 bn. Compared to similar period of the last year, turnover increased 2.57 times measured in dollars and 2.69 times measured in tenge.
Following is the comparative table of volumes of deals made at KASE during those periods, as well as dynamics of the turnover structure of the Exchange (in millions USD and percents). The calculation was made in terms of dollars.
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To corresponding
period of 2001
------------------------
Sector January- Trend:
of KASE November Jan-Nov ----------------
Market 2002 2001 USD m %
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
Foreign 2,550.4 1,712.4 +837.9 +48.9
Currency 12.1% 20.8%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
Futures 646.8 0 +646.8 Х
3.1% 0%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
GS (primary market and purchase-sale) 1,518.5 1,384.3 +134.1 +9.7
7.2% 16.8%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
CS (primary market and purchase-sale) 320.9 235.3 +85.6 +36.4
1.5% 2.9%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
REPO (CS and GS), total 16,097.4 4,879.0 +11,218.4 +229.9
76.2% 59.4%
including repo on GS, direct deals 2,444.3 3,451.5 -1,007.3 -29.2
11.6% 42.0%
Including auto repo on GS 13,563.8 1,258.2 +12,305.6 +978.0
64.2% 15.3%
including repo on CS, direct deals 86.2 169.2 -83.0 -49.1
0.41% 2.1%
Including auto repo on CS 3.2 0 +3.157 Х
0.015% 0%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
IFO bonds 0 5.9 -5.9 Х
0% 0.1%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
Promissory notes 0.023 0 +0.023 Х
0.0001% 0%
------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- ------
TOTAL 21,134.0 8,216.9 +12,917.1 +157.2
100% 100%
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In November of 2002 the volume of deals made at the Exchange totaled $3,308.5 m or KZT511.1 bn and increased relative to the previous month by 44.9% in dollars and 3.1% in tenge. The mentioned transactions volume is record high monthly volume for the whole nine-month history of KASE and exceeds previous historic maximum (September of 2002) by 40.7%.
Following is the table with the dynamics of the turnover of the Exchange in last 7 months, which is grouped by months and market sectors (both in KZT and USD, sectors of IFO bonds and promissory notes have been excluded because of absence of transactions).
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Market Indica-
sector tor V-2002 VI-2002 VII-2002 VIII-2002 IX-2002 X-2002 XI-2002
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
In millions of dollars
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Foreign volume 220.0 231.0 232.1 226.6 237.9 366.9 385.5
Currency % 16.2 13.2 12.2 13.3 10.1 16.1 11.7
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Futures volume 13.8 104.3 20.8 0.005 150.2 10.0 80.0
% 1.0 6.0 1.1 0.0003 6.4 0.4 2.4
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
GS volume 84.0 95.2 68.4 119.7 221.2 173.9 221.9
% 6.2 5.4 3.6 7.0 9.4 7.6 6.7
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
CS volume 45.3 10.0 34.6 15.0 34.9 50.5 19.7
% 3.3 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.6
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
REPO volume 994.0 1,306.9 1,547.8 1,340.8 1,707.7 1,682.4 2,601.4
% 73.2 74.8 81.3 78.8 72.6 73.7 78.6
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
TOTAL 1,357.1 1,747.3 1,903.8 1,702.0 2,352.0 2,283.9 3,308.5
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
In billions tenge
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Foreign volume 33.7 35.4 35.7 35.0 36.8 56.7 59.5
Currency % 16.2 13.2 12.2 13.3 10.1 16.1 11.6
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
Futures volume 2.1 16.1 3.2 0.001 23.5 1.6 12.7
% 1.0 6.0 1.1 0.0003 6.5 0.5 2.5
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
GS volume 12.9 14.6 10.5 18.5 34.2 26.9 34.3
% 6.2 5.4 3.6 7.0 9.4 7.6 6.7
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
CS volume 6.9 1.5 5.3 2.3 5.4 7.8 3.0
% 3.3 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.6
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
REPO volume 152.1 200.1 238.1 206.9 264.0 259.8 401.6
% 73.2 74.8 81.3 78.8 72.6 73.7 78.6
-------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- -------
TOTAL 207.6 267.7 292.9 262.7 363.8 352.7 511.1
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Notes: in GS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market are considered; in CS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market are considered; in REPO sector repo transactions with GS and CS are considered, including auto repo;
IFO securities - bonds of the International financial organizations.
The given results of the analysis are the evidence of the fact that the main reason of growth of stock exchange's transactions volume in November is excessive liquidity of the whole financial market whereas there is deficit of instruments for investments, which would satisfy participants with acceptable correlation of risk and yield. This is proved by highest repo-transactions growth rate. During the month this sector expanded by USD918.9 m (KZT141.8 bn) or by 54.6%. At that, 62.5% of transactions volume in the sector were made at GS automatic repo, 37.0% - on the same bonds, but with the help of direct deals. In its turn, 86.5% of all transactions at autorepo floor - repo "overnight" - typical "instrument of waiting" interesting objects of investments.
The most significant role in formation of November transactions volume at KASE was played by GS purchase and sale sector, which had increased by 27.6%. More than a half of the turnover here falls to the share of the shortest bonds - National Bank's notes, which are also "instrument of waiting" and are used by investors for accumulating means before longer investments or in order to regulate their liquidity.
November's negative aspect is decrease of CS (corporate securities) purchase and sale volume. Despite activation of the trade (number of deals rose from 137 to 183) volumes were small. Main investors' expectations were concerned with bonds of Kazakhstan Mortgage Company CJSC. However due to underwriters they appeared at the secondary market at very low rates and were out of brokers' attention. Change of requirements for market-makers of CS at KASE concerning compression of spreads between compulsory quotations, most probably, will influence liquidity of CS at the stock exchange in December. After introduction of the new requirements the market's volume started growing, however it is not clear yet whether it occurred because of compression of spreads or because of ending of the month.
Now there are all grounds to assume that December transactions volume at KASE will be the largest in the year. Repo sector goes on growing. Money market's activation is easily forecasted. And sale of the state block of shares of Corporation Kazkhmys OJSC is possible at CS market.
[2002-12-02]