U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, September 03, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 154.62(-0.02) 154.53(-0.15) 154.49(-0.17) - Volume of session (m) 11.385(+6.085) 7.280(+6.180) 5.000(+3.900) 0 Bid 154.61(-0.03) 154.50(-0.14) 154.49(-0.15) - Offer 154.62(-0.03) 154.53( -) - - Number of participants 17(+6) 14(+4) 4(-6) 0 ---------------------- -------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bid 154.60(-0.04) 154.46(-0.19) 154.47(-0.03) Offer 154.65(-0.04) 154.51(-0.19) 154.52(-0.03) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations; for the main session trends of USD_TOM of the previous working day are given, for additional and evening sessions - regarding joint session of Monday on USD_TOM. The peculiarity of the day in the Kazakhstan market of US dollar was high activity of traders. It is enough to mention that the volume of the additional Exchange session at KASE almost reached the record figure for the whole Exchange history (volume of these trades was more only once - April 18, 2001), and the volume of evening trades significantly exceeded record figure reached earlier. Gross position of two banks in the Exchange market during the day exceeded 10m dollars for each, and the position of one of them reached 14.2m. In IRBIS analysts' opinion, activation of trade in foreign currency was caused by some factors. The main one is three rest days in Kazakhstan and the holiday in the USA, so exporters were disabled to hold a sale of their currency receipts with payment on the day of deals making for four days. In other words, today offer accumulated for rest-days was working at KASE. Due to significant growth of oil prices in the world markets during the second half of July the inflow of the currency receipts to the country rises. This changed traditional schedule of receipt of these earnings to KASE. IRBIS analysts also consider another factor - the end of the period of leaves and beginning of autumn period, traditionally active in the Kazakhstan currency market. As follows from the above, the volume of the Exchange dollar market was formed mainly by offer volume of American currency, which exceeded the bid. This didn't allow sellers to keep the market at the figures of opening (154.66 tenge per dollar as of the beginning of the active stage of the morning trade). To the evening dollar had lost 16 points. The important peculiarity of the day was large demand, which was almost able to neutralize increased offer. There was no drastic movement of the market downwards, despite the lack of support from below by the National Bank. Some traders were working with large volumes as for selling and for purchasing, which can be interpreted as execution of clients' orders on sale with concurrent opening of long positions, hoping for market growth in the nearest future due to taking off the load from above. The last seems to be quite real as the day over the counter closed with slight decline relative to Monday. And having a decrease of dollar offer volume, soon high bid could strengthen positions of American currency. Summarizing stated above, IRBIS analysts expect for KASE morning session of Wednesday of market stabilization at 154.50 tenge per dollar with possible slight weakening of tenge in the second half of the day. However, in general it is likely that there will be no significant dynamics of USD rate within next few days. Increasing offer of American currency has to be neutralized by traditionally high bid, which excludes notable rise of dollar rate within next two weeks. [2002-09-03]